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Tropical Update 2013: TD-1E Forms In EPAC, Not A Major Concern

By: hurricaneben , 9:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2013

Tropical Depression One-E has formed about 400 miles SSW of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and may slowly strengthen in the next few days on its projected track that would take it mostly west of Baja California but possibly close enough to create an enhanced risk of surf and increased potential of heavy rainfall. It is not expected to become much stronger than a weak to mid range tropical storm, so regardless major damage is unlikely even if it does make landfall but we'll keep an eye on it anyway. Moisture from whatever's left of it may increase rain chances for California and other parts of the Southwest US by this time next week, but that all depends on how strong it peaks out as.

Atlantic basin
There is a weak disturbance trough located off the coast of the Florida Panhandle and moving westward. Some slight development is possible but dry air and relatively unfavorable conditions should keep the chances of TC formation on the low side. Still this could lead to an increased risk of heavy rainfall for Louisiana and Texas tomorrow into the weekend, especially SE Louisiana where rainfall of 2-3 inches through Monday may produce isolated flooding of low lying areas. The NHC gives this a 10% chance of formation. The dry air that's been keeping the tropics very quiet for this time of the year may start to lessen by sometime next week and the GFS is hinting at possibly significant TC formation off of Africa within' a week or so. This is far out but will need to be watched as a strong MJO pulse moves eastward into our basin and makes a more active start to September much more likely.

Due to the enhanced dry air preventing an active late August, I'm going to slightly lessen the amount of systems I forecast to develop in the Atlantic basin this season but I still predict a fairly busy season regardless with 13-15 named storms, 4-5 hurricanes and around 2 major hurricanes.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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12:03 AM GMT on August 24, 2013
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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.

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