Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 9:20 PM GMT on August 06, 2013
The Atlantic remains fairly quiet at the moment but the Eastern/Central Pacific is bursting with activity which includes one tropical storm, one hurricane and an area of interest that may develop into something bigger by the end of the week.
Our first storm to discuss is Tropical Storm Gil, now in the Central Pacific with winds around 40 MPH. Re weakening is forecast in the short term and it does not pose a threat to land. It should stay well south of the Hawaiian islands--likely as only a remnant low--and not even enhance rain chances all that much as it drifts westward.
Henriette continues to strengthen at a rather swift pace and is now a high end category one hurricane with winds around 90 MPH. Some more additional strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours and we could easily see this take a brief shot at CAT II status, a low-end CAT III (major hurricane) isn't even out of the question but at this time it's more likely to remain below major hurricane status at peak, still a dangerous storm if it were to ever threaten land at this intensity. Fortunately, it is not expected to do so and may not even affect land really that much. It is projected to stay just south of the Hawaiian islands, possibly as a weaker tropical storm, so increased rain chances and high surf are a possibility by Sunday/Monday but Flossie caused significantly higher impacts on these islands last week and damage there was still kept to a minimum. So I wouldn't worry about a direct threat to land, if any threat at all--for the most part, this should remain a 'fish storm'.
There is the chance of a broad low forming off of Mexico in the next couple of days and conditions may be favorable for some development of the system, possibly into a tropical cyclone by the start of next week--that is certainly a possibility but remains a long way out. The reason I'm bringing this up is because it should remains a lot closer to land than Gil and Henriette did so there is more of the risk for some elevated impacts but that's still a long way out so no reason for alarm quite yet.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no areas of interest expected to develop in the short term but we should see increasing chances of some development occurring off the coast of Africa in the next week or two. I'll have an update tomorrow or on Thursday, it seems as though the tropical picture is relatively busy but there are no significant areas of concern to mention at the moment, at least no major land effects from any of the active systems.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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