Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 12:44 AM GMT on July 07, 2013
The tropics are continuing to show signs of activity with Invest 95L organizing its way through the Far Eastern Atlantic with a shot at TC formation in a part of the basin that rarely does see such activity in Early July, as well as Category one Hurricane Erick which is bringing high winds and flooding rainfall to the SW Coast of Mexico. Invest 94L isn't expected to additionally develop much but may bring its round of wet, windy weather to Texas and Dalila is losing its name.
We will start out by discussing Invest 95L, located about 950 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This strong tropical wave has been showing signs of organization in the past 12-24 hours and has the potential to develop into a formidable system in an area that rarely sees tropical cyclones this early in the season but climatologically speaking isn't impossible either: we've seen Bertha (1996) become a major hurricane on July 9 before coming ashore North Carolina as a category two as well as another Bertha (2008) which peaked as a category three in early to mid July--it's all about how the conditions are setup and environmental conditions are set to increase even further in favorability so it is certainly a possibility that we may be looking at a named system even by the start to the upcoming week. Models are now getting into a general consensus that it will directly affect the Northern Lesser Antilles by roughly around the middle of the upcoming week and it could very well be as a tropical cyclone, but exactly how strong it gets at that time and where it goes from there is entering the 'uncertain' zone. It could easily enter the Caribbean, threaten The Bahamas/Florida, head up the US Eastern Seaboard or recurve out to sea. Again it is not a tropical cyclone yet, if it does become one, that's when we'll get a better grip on the eventual path but it is something to watch given the eventual uncertainty and favorable environmental conditions. The NHC gives this a 30% chance of TC formation by Monday evening, I'd give it around a 60% chance of ever becoming one.
This one is much less organized and less likely to develop but is somewhat responsible for causing severe flooding conditions in the Florida Panhandle including widespread road closures and flooded homes. Less widespread, but considerable, flooding reports have also come in for much of the rest of the Southeastern US all as part of a broad trough. Now the heavy rains and winds are set to impact the Texas/SW LA coastlines. Up to 3 inches of rainfall may fall in SW LA through early Wednesday and isolated significantly higher amounts are also possible so minor to locally significant flooding is a valid concern but I highly doubt it will reach the magnitude as seen in the Panama City area over the past couple of days. One thing that now appears to be unlikely though is TC development because of unfavorable upper level winds. NHC gives this a slim but reasonable 10% chance of TC formation by Monday evening.
Erick has strengthened into a hurricane much earlier today and is now keeping its intensity as it closely parallels the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Winds are up to around 80 MPH, as previously forecast, it is expected to stay offshore the SW coast of Mexico but the outer fringes of Erick are certainly expected to leave a mark. Heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts near 8 inches, may cause an enhanced risk of some locally significant flash flooding and hurricane force gusts are a secondary hazard--while not as life threatening as the floods, downed tree branches and scattered power outages are another hazard to look out for close to the immediate coastline. So as seen with Cosme and Dalila, impacts can be felt well away from the center--and many Atlantic hurricanes have proven the same point (as seen with Isaac, Sandy, Ike, etc).
I'll have another blog post tomorrow or Monday.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.