Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 4:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2013
Happy 4th Of July and for this special holiday, we now have 2 tropical cyclones to track in the Eastern Pacific as well as a weak area of low pressure that is bringing an enhanced flooding risk to parts of the US Gulf Coast and inland Southeast US.
We will start with Tropical Storm Dalila which is currently weakening at a rapid pace. Winds are now down to 40 MPH and further weakening may bring Dalila down to TD status perhaps in the next few hours. Swells affecting the Pacific Coast of Mexico have greatly weakened and as discussed before, there remains no threat to any other land masses. If you do know of ships in Dalila's path, alert them if possible for the potential of relatively higher seas and occasionally heavy rainfall--although Dalila is falling apart and should continue to do so.
Tropical Depression Five-E is something to be more alert about for those along the Pacific Coast of Mexico. No watches or warnings are up for anywhere attributed to the depression yet. As said, there is no immediate direct threat to the coastline however may nudge its way closer to SW Mexico as a weak to mid range tropical storm sometime tomorrow and the potential for some increased winds, seas and locally heavy rainfall does exist. It is still appearing to be another 'dodge the bullet' scenario for NW Mexico as seen with the past 2 hurricanes but we can never rule out the possibility of the system moving closer to land than projected so we will continue to monitor the progress of this newly formed tropical depression.
The one other area of interest we are monitoring is associated with a broad trough of low pressure extending across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. The activity is moving generally westward or west-northwestward in the direction of western Gulf Of Mexico. The chances of short term development at this time are on the low side due to unfavorable upper level winds but these winds may weaken in the next couple of days as the activity makes its way towards Texas and NE Mexico where something trying to spin up is much more plausible. Regardless, heavy tropical downpours is resulting in the ongoing risk of flash flooding along the eastern Gulf Coast and may shift inland toward Georgia and the rest of the Southeast US. As much as 6 inches of rainfall is forecast for the western Florida Panhandle through Sunday morning with 4-5 inches projected for eastern Tennessee. The NHC gives this AOI a 10% chance of TC formation by Saturday morning, I'd give it a 30-40% chance of ever forming.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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