Tropical Update 2013: Invest 94E Near TD Status, 95E May Also Develop

By: hurricaneben , 12:12 AM GMT on June 23, 2013

It seems to be a double trouble scenario in the tropics, at least in the Eastern Pacific where we are tracking 2 areas of interest with a shot at development: one more than the other (that is 94E).

invest 94E
94E appears to be very close to TD status and may become one at any time. There does not appear to be any direct threat to land but impacts on the southern tip of Baja California such as increased rainfall and winds are quite possible. Organization has occurred and should continue to occur as the disturbance takes a westward turn. Now this would take it out to sea but a ridge coming in play could push it off to the NNW in the next 24-48 hours and models are in agreement that it comes relatively close to the Baja California but stays far enough away that any impacts will be rather tame as compared to strength. For example if it makes closest approach as a tropical storm, we'll see occasional rainfall and breezy to windy conditions but if we see the closest approach of a stronger hurricane, TS force winds and flooding rainfall may drench the southernmost tip. NHC gives it a 80% chance of TC formation by Monday evening, something to watch for Baja Californian folks but not a major concern at all.

Invest 95E
This one is less organized but the overall uncertainty should warrant some attention from those along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and Baja California as well. Development is possible before conditions become less favorable in 1-2 days, mostly in part due to the stronger 94E to the East. Odds are it stays relatively out at sea but the models aren't as much in agreement with the BAMM taking it within' 100-150 miles of a Baja California landfall and the HWRF taking it straight into Mainland Mexico. So whether it develops all that much or not, some sort of land impacts cannot be ruled out, not much of a concern at all at the moment. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Monday evening.

The Atlantic remains quiet with no areas of interest worth mentioning that pose a threat to develop in the short term but with the strong MJO pulse expected to make its way into the Caribbean by Early July, the next couple of weeks may churn out something worth watching.

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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.