Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 11:20 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
The Atlantic remains rather quiet as expected during late May although a change may come soon with the MJO expected to move into the Caribbean sea in the next week and models hinting at a potential TD/TS for the Caribbean and possibly South Florida in the next 1-2 weeks. This is still many days out but it is becoming rather persistent. Shear should be rather low for early June as the wind shear is already on a steady decreasing trend so development seems like it might not be all that much of a problem. But let's dedicate this blog post to a more short term and more certain threat to land--92E.
Invest 92E is showing signs of organization in the Eastern Pacific just offshore Guatemala--and further gradual organization is expected. A TD/TS forming out of this one by Monday or Tuesday is definitely not out of the question and actually starting to look rather probable. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon, I might go with 40-50% on this one however. A small but tight circulation is showing evidence of forming. It's still not a tropical cyclone yet but most models to take it into the Pacific coast of Mexico likely by mid week. So if it does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will likely be a rather weak one at that. Flooding, though, due to heavy rainfall may prove something to monitor closely.
This one is a little bit less organized and less of an immediate threat to land though a few models do hook it back NE in the direction of yet another Mexico landfall late in the week (others keep it well out at sea). NHC gives it a 20% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon. I'm more concerned about 92E at the moment but I will monitor 91E as well and mention it in greater detail if the short term threat increases.
I'll have another blog post by either tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday. Happy Memorials day, everyone, and a safe one at that.
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