Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 7:59 PM GMT on May 11, 2012
Hello, this is my first REAL tropical post of the year and yes it's a bit early but we do have an area of interest in the Eastern Pacific to talk about and we will also briefly discuss the potential for a tropical system in the Caribbean within' the next 1 to 2 weeks.
First, let's discuss Invest 90E. It's in the Eastern Pacific, under generally favorable conditions for this time of the year, and the conditions are favorable enough to support gradual development with this one. There are some other blobs that could prevent it from major significant organization in the short run, but the location and time of year has helped generate other tropical cyclones in the past. It poses no threat to land, so no land masses have to worry about any impacts, but decently above average SSTs should help allow some gradual development and there is a chance--not a very high one, but it's still out there--that we could see this develop into Tropical Storm Aletta as early as Sunday. I'm not going to mention this becoming a hurricane that quick, but if this manages to persist long enough, a tropical cyclone is definitely a firm possibility. The NHC hasn't tagged this one in their Tropical Weather Outlook yet, they will likely say something soon.
Models have been hinting at the development of a tropical cyclone in the next week for quite some time now, and conditions aren't highly unfavorable for something to somewhat get its act together as an organized low or possibly even a TD/TS. I'm not fully buying the models yet, but I'll monitor the tropical situations in case something does pan out. Cuba and Florida are in the biggest line of fire for this hypothetical tropical system, and heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat. Keep updated, I'll post tomorrow or on Sunday...if the post is allowed through my computer.
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