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Tropical Update 2011: TS Don Strikes S Texas, Invest 91L Could Become TD This Weekend

By: hurricaneben , 12:26 AM GMT on July 30, 2011

Tropical Storm Don is roaring ashore South Texas right now packing winds of 50 MPH. The heaviest rain and wind is beginning to affect the South Padre Island region right now and tropical storm warnings are still in effect. Localized flooding is a threat however wind damage should remain minimal limited to downed tree limbs and possibly an isolated power outage near the coast as tropical-storm force winds briefly affect the coast shortly. The rain isn't enough to put a major dent in the drought but for some areas they are getting at least some decent relief.

Invest 91L
Invest 91L in the Central Atlantic is an even bigger threat in the long-term. It has been steadily organizing today and looks to be on its way to TD/TS status possibly as early as tomorrow afternoon. The NHC gives this a 50% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening, I'd give it more of a 70% chance by that time frame. Models generally take it near/over the Northern Lesser Antilles early next week as anything from a tropical storm to a low-end category 3 hurricane, and this should be watched very closely by residents in Puerto Rico and surrounding islands since this has a good chance of becoming the season's first Atlantic Hurricane. After affecting the region, most models generally take it near The Bahamas and possibly begin to re-curve, some sooner some dangerously later and if this tugs along and hardly re-curves which is still possible, this might end up a Florida threat but at this time Puerto Rico...Hispaniola and SE Bahamas should watch this the most. I'd give it a 50% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane and a 25% chance of a major hurricane. Be aware that this system might end up very intense and dangerous if the current conditions persist.

Invest 95E
Invest 95E is out there in the Eastern Pacific and is looking to be entering a relatively favorable area for development and there is some chance we might see this become Tropical Storm Eugene/TD-5, the good news is that at this time it's not an imminent danger to any land masses. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of TC formation.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. hurricaneben
4:15 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for the up-date Ben. Yes, 91L could be a major "Player" in a few days.


Yup, my friend David has family in Puerto Rico and I'm rather concerned about what 91L/Future Emily might pull. I don't think this will be a gentle one at all.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. originalLT
4:20 AM GMT on July 30, 2011
Thanks for the up-date Ben. Yes, 91L could be a major "Player" in a few days.
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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.

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