Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 11:19 PM GMT on March 07, 2014
This will be my first blog post of the year 2014, to inform of recent findings that an El Nino pattern may be set to develop in the coming months, particularly the summer and fall months. After seeing an intense blossom in hurricane activity from 2010 to 2012, then a quiet(er) season in terms of both activity and impact to follow, the tranquility may just be here to stay for at least another season. The NOAA has put up an El Nino Watch and of the 18 El Nino models, none of them call for El Nino conditions during the peak of the season. Dr Masters, of course, has all the important details in his latest blog post...however, it would not be safe to assume that because conditions are setup for a less busy overall hurricane season, that your neck of the woods (be it Florida, North Carolina, Bermuda...) is safe from a serious hurricane threat. 1960 had strong El Nino conditions during the peak of the season, and that is when Hurricane Donna tore through the Florida Keys claiming 13 lives and widespread devastation.
I'll try to update my blog sometime in the next month or so, but it is sure that as soon as the start of the season gets close, I will update as frequently as I can.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.