Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 9:10 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
Tropical Storm Juliette has formed to the south of Baja California, with winds around 45 MPH and is headed generally NNW to NW at a fast 24 MPH. It is expected to clip Baja California and may bring periods of heavy rainfall and briefly strong winds but the impacts are forecast to be rather limited thanks to the fast rate and small size. Rainfall amounts may total around 1 to 3 inches, which may cause isolated incidents of flooding but is rather mild for a tropical cyclone of any strength. This should start occurring in the next few hours and may subside as early as tomorrow morning, so a 6-12 hour event--but could be less than 6 hours. It is racing towards cooler SSTs and is not expected to strengthen any further.
The typical peak of the hurricane season may not be as busy as we've seen in the past couple of years and even for a typical season. 2 tropical waves--one in the central Atlantic, the currently over western Afruica--has the potential to develop this weekend but the chances aren't very strong right now. Conditions are expected to remain less favorable in the next few days than we've anticipated so some action is possible but for this time of the year, things are looking tranquil. We've had some of the strongest and most destructive hurricanes take place this week in history--including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 which would kill thousands as the second deadliest US hurricane in recorded history, at this date tomorrow. Dry air may lessen in the coming couple of weeks so we might have a late, but active, start to the peak of this year's hurricane season. The wave over the central Atlantic should bring increased heavy rainafall to the Lesser Antilles anyway.
I'll have another blog post when possible, stay tuned but times are busy for me lately. The tropics? Not so much.
By: hurricaneben, 9:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2013
Invest 95L has continued its steady rate of organization and thus we now have the sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season posing a threat to Veracruz within' the next 12-24 hours.
Tropical Depression Six
Winds are around 35 MPH as the newly-formed depression is forecast to gather some strength but time is limited as landfall in Veracruz may occur in the early hours of tomorrow--it will likely remain weak at landfall but flooding is a considerable concern, as seen with Barry back in June--flooding claimed 3 lives there. The general thinking is rainfall amounts of around 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts near one foot, which likely isn't enough to cause widespread destructive flooding but remember this is a relatively small-sized storm which aids in strengthening but also limits the rainfall/flooding potential in terms of coverage. Not expected to play a role in the weather in Texas but folks in Veracruz, just prepare for a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds ahead...tropical storm warnings are up and the potential for flooding definitely exists with this one.
Cape Verde AOI
The tropical wave that emerged off of Africa recently appears to be a likely candidate for development...but not until the dry air settles around mid to late week. Models are coming into a general agreement that we might see this easily become yet another tropical storm and potentially a hurricane by next weekend into early next week. I'd keep an eye on this if I were anyone with interests in the Caribbean and/or the US East Coast but I wouldn't stress out at all since we still have at least 1-2 weeks before any land masses become affected, and the models are all over the place. Not much of a chance of imminent development but a stronger potential exists a week out. NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation by Friday, and I'd give it a 50-60% chance by next Sunday.
Well since Ivo is near dissipation stage, there isn't much else to talk about. A developing EPAC tropical disturbance may develop into a tropical cyclone sometime this upcoming week as it parallels the Mexican coastline but stays a good distance away before completely turning out to sea. I'll likely have another update sometime in the next 3 days.
By: hurricaneben, 12:04 AM GMT on August 25, 2013
The lull in the tropics may temporarily cease with Invest 95L becoming increasingly likely to spin up into a tropical cyclone--albeit weak--before coming ashore Veracruz Monday or Tuesday. The Gulf AOI is falling apart so this blog post will be about TS Ivo in the Eastern Pacific and Invest 95L.
The weak Yucatan disturbance I mentioned yesterday is looking increasingly likely to re-emerge into the southern Bay Of Campeche tonight or tomorrow and has thus been designated as Invest 95L earlier today. Now conditions are quite favorable for some development in the Bay Of Campeche before models take it into the Yucatan by the start to middle of the upcoming week so it may have as much a couple of days to get its act together and there is a strong chance we might see this become a weak TS before landfall--and we can't rule out a quicker spinup into a stronger tropical storm as we seen with Marco in 2008. That part of the basin is prone to quick sprouts of intensification, so we will keep an eye on it but it is not expected to impact the weather in the Lower 48 at this time. Folks in Veracruz, just prepare for some wet and windy weather regardless anytime from Monday into Wednesday. NHC gives this a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Storm Ivo, which was the main headline yesterday, is weakening as it passes to the west of Baja California but its large circulation is producing occasionally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the western tip and the moisture is bringing increased thunderstorm activity to the Southwest US so the impacts are far reaching but not highly significant. Ivo is expected to dissipate by tomorrow or Monday.
The models are still being consistent with developing a vigorous tropical wave expected to emerge off of Africa by the end of the upcoming week (Aug 29-31), and by that time the dry air presence will steadily weaken so intensification as a tropical cyclone will be a lot easier and more likely and I won't be surprised at all if we get our first Atlantic hurricane out of this one. It's all about persistence and ingredients are starting to come together for a much more active September in the Atlantic basin, from the Cape Verdes to the Caribbean. We will see for now, a lot of time to monitor the tropics as we approach the peak of the season. It's 'The Time Of The Season', quoting a classic 1969 hit song.
I'll have another update tomorrow or on Monday, most likely, but due to schoolwork, I may not blog quite as frequently unless there is a major threat to land somewhere in the Atlantic or E Pacific.
By: hurricaneben, 12:03 AM GMT on August 24, 2013
The tropics, while not quite active yet, has certain areas of interest both in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific that are being watched. The Pacific appears to be the most active with Tropical Storm Ivo possibly bringing some squally weather to Baja California over the weekend...and could enhanced moisture cause a monsoonal type event for the Southwest? That and the likelihood of a currently quiet Atlantic significantly ramping up in activity next week, all coming up.
Tropical Storm Ivo has gathered a bit of strength since last night, now with winds up to around 45 MPH which still makes it fairly weak but competent and very potent in terms of the rainfall potential for not only Baja California but possibly the Southwest US as well. We're talking Arizona, inland California and southern Nevada seeing a decent flood threat because of an increasingly likely period of wet weather, some areas of which could use the rainfall. It may come very close to Baja California this weekend so the outer bands could easily produce up to 4 inches of rainfall for central Baja California. This could contribute to some flooding problems, not a whole lot, but still some considerable impacts on the weather for folks there. Even though it should stay well to the south and west of the Southwest US, major moisture outflow means the enhanced potential of a wet weather period basically peaking around Sunday. Therefore flash flood watches are up. It could dissipate by Sunday or Monday right off the coast of northwest Baja California, so for now it just appears to be a major soaker for both areas but not likely to produce widespread major flooding.
Now, on to the Atlantic basin. It's been getting a tad bit more busy in the past day or two but not a whole lot. We got a weak trough of low pressure in the northern Gulf Of Mexico that has a very limited shot at becoming possibly a weak TD/TS briefly before reaching Texas and Mexico tomorrow night but the chances of that aren't looking good, it was slightly more potent-looking earlier today. Still rainfall of 2 to 3 inches may be a possibility from Galveston area to SE Louisiana through the weekend, but this isn't enough to create much more than just some minor flooding and ponding. Onto another tropical disturbance near the Yucatan, upper level winds are looking conducive for some development as it travels its way through the southernmost part of the Bay Of Campeche this weekend but land proximity will likely prevent any significant development. But a TD/weak TS briefly spinning up cannot be ruled out, and if it manages to sneak a little more north than forecast, the chances are even higher. NHC gives this a reasonably low 10% chance of TC formation due to the land proximity, but I could see it being placed at around 20-30% or higher if it does sneak to the north. Just because these 2 systems aren't likely to develop at the moment, I am not letting my guard down and a decreasing presence of SAL and higher chance of a more moist environment should make way for a much, much more active Atlantic basin from the weekend after this one likely through the end of September. And with models persistently hinting at a vigorous wave coming off of Africa by that time and developing into a more significant tropical cyclone, the quiet isn't expected to last much longer.
The update was relatively long due to various interesting tropical topics here, but I'll make another update sometime this weekend.
By: hurricaneben, 9:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2013
Tropical Depression One-E has formed about 400 miles SSW of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and may slowly strengthen in the next few days on its projected track that would take it mostly west of Baja California but possibly close enough to create an enhanced risk of surf and increased potential of heavy rainfall. It is not expected to become much stronger than a weak to mid range tropical storm, so regardless major damage is unlikely even if it does make landfall but we'll keep an eye on it anyway. Moisture from whatever's left of it may increase rain chances for California and other parts of the Southwest US by this time next week, but that all depends on how strong it peaks out as.
There is a weak disturbance trough located off the coast of the Florida Panhandle and moving westward. Some slight development is possible but dry air and relatively unfavorable conditions should keep the chances of TC formation on the low side. Still this could lead to an increased risk of heavy rainfall for Louisiana and Texas tomorrow into the weekend, especially SE Louisiana where rainfall of 2-3 inches through Monday may produce isolated flooding of low lying areas. The NHC gives this a 10% chance of formation. The dry air that's been keeping the tropics very quiet for this time of the year may start to lessen by sometime next week and the GFS is hinting at possibly significant TC formation off of Africa within' a week or so. This is far out but will need to be watched as a strong MJO pulse moves eastward into our basin and makes a more active start to September much more likely.
Due to the enhanced dry air preventing an active late August, I'm going to slightly lessen the amount of systems I forecast to develop in the Atlantic basin this season but I still predict a fairly busy season regardless with 13-15 named storms, 4-5 hurricanes and around 2 major hurricanes.
By: hurricaneben, 9:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
We kick off this week with a very quiet Atlantic basin which is rare for this deep into August. Relatively high shear and dry air are main factors in prohibiting development, thus as of the 19th of August haven't had our first hurricane yet which typically forms around August 10th. The NAM is hinting at possible development in the SW Caribbean by around Thursday/early Friday and the only formidable area of interest at all in the entire Atlantic basin is an area of convection in SE Gulf Of Mexico which by itself is very limited and unlikely to kick off in the short term.
But, in the Eastern Pacific, we do have a more concerning AOI for the areas in its path at least...Invest 94E, while it isn't very likely to develop in the next day or two, it is quite likely to spin up into a TS at the very least by the end of the week. Models generally take it west of the southern tip of Baja California but in the general direction of central/northern Baja California. There is a decent chance we might see it take a shot at hurricane status, most likely by towards the weekend but when it does approach Baja California (if it does), it should be significantly weaker than its peak. The NHC gives it a low 20% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon but a very high 80% chance by Saturday.
I may not update on the tropics until' a new invest develops and/or we get a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific. Due to high school, I am a bit too busy for daily updates--and will make exceptions on that rule only when there is a concerning TC in the Atlantic, otherwise it'd be averaging twice a week or so excluding the weekends. Good luck.
Updated: 9:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
By: hurricaneben, 3:14 PM GMT on August 17, 2013
After weakening into a TD yesterday, Erin has re strengthened into a low end tropical storm with winds around 40 MPH but this likely won't be for long. Running into an area with higher shear and cooler SSTs, Erin is expected to weaken into a depression in the next day or so and possibly a remnant low by the start of the upcoming week. As it stands now, Erin should remain a 'fish storm' regardless and even its remnants are currently forecast to stay well away from land so right now, we're casually watching it but land impacts can almost be completely ruled out. If the forecasts shift west from here, I'll let you know.
Despite decently favorable conditions, Invest 92L has refused to organize much and remains one big mess as it re-emerges into the SW Gulf Of Mexico. There remains the possibility of some development as models take it in the general direction of Texas or NE Mexico so there is still the decent chance we may see a TD/TS spin up before landfall but the odds aren't looking quite as good as they did 24-48 hours ago.
I'll have another update tomorrow or on Monday.
By: hurricaneben, 1:47 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
While Invest 92L has run out of time to become a TD/TS before it comes ashore the Yucatan, development into one while in the Gulf Of Mexico still is quite likely and it now appears to be more of a threat to Texas than the waterlogged eastern Gulf Coast states, but Texas can use the rain--well some of it, anyways. Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the Atlantic, I'll give you the latest on that.
We now have Tropical Storm Erin near the Cape Verde Islands with winds around 40 MPH, headed to the WNW. Conditions are favorable for some gradual strengthening and there is the chance it may near hurricane strength by this weekend but may run into temporarily more unfavorable conditions after that. Well the trends seem to have shifted westward so there is more of the potential for some sort of direct threat to land in the long run but for now, no immediate danger associated with Erin. I will keep a close eye on this one for you, as well as 92L.
I pretty much wrapped it up above--Invest 92L has somewhat decreased in organization and ran out of time to become a tropical cyclone before the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico but with very warm SSTs in the Gulf Of Mexico, we could really see something fire up before it comes ashore (likely) Texas or NE Mexico, which is what the models are painting out now. Still enhanced moisture will lead to an increased flooding risk for states such as Mississippi and Alabama which is not what they need, but going by the latest model shift, the overall threat has significantly lowered. NHC gives this a 60% chance of ever becoming a TC, quite high but slightly down from the 70% given yesterday.
I'll have an update either tomorrow or on Saturday.
Updated: 1:48 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
By: hurricaneben, 11:58 AM GMT on August 14, 2013
The tropics are definitely getting back into shape as we approach the peak of the season--2 invests in the Atlantic basin both have a strong chance of becoming a TD/TS in the next few days--92L and 93L, but 92L appears to be the greatest concern by far as it is a probable threat to the Gulf Coast and more imminently, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
This is the greatest concern, having organized quite a lot in the past couple of days, and is now pretty close to attaining TD status in the NW Caribbean. Models are split between taking it WNW over the Yucatan and towards NE Mexico/South Texas or straight north into the Gulf Of Mexico and possibly NNE/NE towards the eastern Gulf Coast states, where they do not need much more rain, they're already water logged and as little as 3 additional inches of rainfall can cause considerable flooding concerns. The first scenario is slightly more likely and that would be better for Texas as they are rather dry and need some tropical rainfall, but too much over a short period of time still is never a good thing. NHC gives it a 60% chance of TC formation in the next five days, so I will closely monitor this system. It is relatively unlikely to attain hurricane status, but certainly not out of the question.
93L is less of an imminent threat and most likely would end up less of a threat overall anyway. It has been organizing since it came off Africa yesterday and is also close to TD status but models generally take it on a course that would keep it relatively out to sea although there is always the possibility of later shifts. The NHC also gives this a 60% chance of TC formation in the next five days.
By: hurricaneben, 9:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2013
After a prolonged stretch of quiet in the Atlantic basin, we are starting to see signs of activity ramping up beginning as early as the next few days and likely increasing from thereon. Models are starting to come into an agreement of a TD/TS potentially forming somewhere in the Southern Gulf Of Mexico or NW Caribbean by late in the week/weekend and we are starting to see some slow development already. Right now conditions are relatively unfavorable but should greatly become more favorable as the week goes on with decreasing wind shear and more moist air feeding in. Anything that develops should move northward and possibly hook NE/ENE towards the Eastern Gulf Coast. Still nothing significant has developed yet but due to the vulnerability to flash flooding in the Southeast US, I'd keep an eye on the trends in the next week. NHC says there is a 20% chance of TC formation in the next five days, but that's only for being skeptical, I expect these chances to increase.
Even though I don't pick on the Western Pacific for discussion often, this dangerous system must be brought up--Typhoon Utor which was once a category four as it slashed through the northernmost Philippines yesterday (killing one and damaging hundreds of homes), it is now a category two as it re-emerges over exceedingly warm SSTs and re intensification into a category three (if not higher) could pose a serious risk of extreme damage for the heavily populated China. Massive flash flooding is a major concern and only one part of a multi-hazard situation that may unfold--likely around Wednesday. This is a dangerous situation so anyone with interests in SE China should pay extremely close attention.
Invest 92E has organized significantly in the past 24 to 48 hours but has struggled in recent hours. It still has a 70% chance of TC formation in the next five days but odds favor it staying out at sea.
I'll have another update on Wednesday, but I can't update much lately due to high school.
By: hurricaneben, 5:14 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Now in the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Henriette is weakening as it passes a few hundred miles to the south of Hawaii with winds around 50 MPH. Though high surf and locally heavy rainfall capable of very minor flooding are probable impacts especially for areas such as Hilo, it seems the Hawaiian islands in general have definitely dodged a bullet. Weakening is expected to continue as Henriette aims toward cooler waters.
SW Gulf AOI
An area of thunderstorms appear to be developing in the SSW Gulf Of Mexico as of this morning and is slowly heading in the direction of NE Mexico. However, due to the limited 24-hour window of additional development, a TD/TS forming isn't quite as probable as if it were farther from coming ashore. Landfall should occur tomorrow so the possibility of flooding rainfall by that time is still eye-worthy but there's nothing that would make me fear any worse than that. NHC gives it only a 10% chance of TC formation, but at least it's something.
A tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is continuing to organize and the chances of a TD/TS forming from this in the short term is definitely reaching a higher status. Upper level winds are becoming more conducive for development and a TD/TS forming in the long run is looking even more likely but the good news is that, for now, it should stay out at sea. If it were to target the Hawaiian islands, we would know a few days in advance at the very least...as that it is the only major land mass anywhere even close to its path. There is a 40% chance of TC development by Monday morning but in the next five days, the chances are very high, standing at up to 70% so our next name on the list (Ivo) for the Eastern Pacific may be lurking around the corner. I'll keep an eye out.
Dry air is still prohibiting any major development in the far eastern Atlantic with the train of tropical waves preparing to emerge but this should lessen in the coming several days and within' the next week or two, there will definitely be an enhanced risk of Cape Verde Tropical wave activity, these odds will increase as the month rolls on.
I have made an official seasonal forecast: due to the dry air and upper level winds slowing down development later in the season than I thought it would, the chances of a highly busy season are somewhat less now than it stood back in June or the first half of July but with the conditions steadily expected to improve as we near the peak of the season, an active season regardless is still expected. My official forecast stands at 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3-4 major hurricanes.
By: hurricaneben, 9:00 PM GMT on August 08, 2013
This blog post will be quick due to the relative quietness in the tropics aside from Hurricane Henriette. After weakening some yesterday, Hurricane Henriette has strengthened into a strong category two with winds around 105 MPH. Movement is to the W but a more SW turn should occur in the next 24 hours and right now, despite strengthening, the threat to Hawaii is even lower than this time yesterday. Basically it should miss the island chain as a whole, by some 400 to 600 miles to the south so any heavy rainbands should remain over the open waters. Increased surf still is a possibility, but even so, not by a whole lot. Maybe some slight additional strengthening could occur in the next 6-12 hours but beyond that point, rapidly cooling SSTs in Henriette's path should make way for steady weakening. There also exists a tropical disturbance over the open Pacific waters which may develop into something more worthy over the next few days but this, too, is expected to stay at sea for now.
I'll have another update on the tropics either tomorrow or Saturday. The tropics in the Atlantic remain fairly quiet (minimal chances of development in the Caribbean is the extent of it) but in the next couple of weeks, the potential for enhanced Cape Verde (and possibly elsewhere) activity is on the steady rise.
By: hurricaneben, 9:20 PM GMT on August 06, 2013
The Atlantic remains fairly quiet at the moment but the Eastern/Central Pacific is bursting with activity which includes one tropical storm, one hurricane and an area of interest that may develop into something bigger by the end of the week.
Our first storm to discuss is Tropical Storm Gil, now in the Central Pacific with winds around 40 MPH. Re weakening is forecast in the short term and it does not pose a threat to land. It should stay well south of the Hawaiian islands--likely as only a remnant low--and not even enhance rain chances all that much as it drifts westward.
Henriette continues to strengthen at a rather swift pace and is now a high end category one hurricane with winds around 90 MPH. Some more additional strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours and we could easily see this take a brief shot at CAT II status, a low-end CAT III (major hurricane) isn't even out of the question but at this time it's more likely to remain below major hurricane status at peak, still a dangerous storm if it were to ever threaten land at this intensity. Fortunately, it is not expected to do so and may not even affect land really that much. It is projected to stay just south of the Hawaiian islands, possibly as a weaker tropical storm, so increased rain chances and high surf are a possibility by Sunday/Monday but Flossie caused significantly higher impacts on these islands last week and damage there was still kept to a minimum. So I wouldn't worry about a direct threat to land, if any threat at all--for the most part, this should remain a 'fish storm'.
There is the chance of a broad low forming off of Mexico in the next couple of days and conditions may be favorable for some development of the system, possibly into a tropical cyclone by the start of next week--that is certainly a possibility but remains a long way out. The reason I'm bringing this up is because it should remains a lot closer to land than Gil and Henriette did so there is more of the risk for some elevated impacts but that's still a long way out so no reason for alarm quite yet.
The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no areas of interest expected to develop in the short term but we should see increasing chances of some development occurring off the coast of Africa in the next week or two. I'll have an update tomorrow or on Thursday, it seems as though the tropical picture is relatively busy but there are no significant areas of concern to mention at the moment, at least no major land effects from any of the active systems.
By: hurricaneben, 8:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2013
Tropical Storm Henriette is continuing to strengthen and now has winds around 65 MPH. Additional strengthening is expected and it could become a hurricane as early as tonight before hitting cooler SSTs by mid-week. It could approach the Hawaiian islands by the end of the weekend/early next week but at this rate, it should remain just to the south and may fall apart before then so for now, I would not worry about anything more than higher surf and increased rain coverage. But as tropical weather is a highly uncertain field, I will keep an eye on it for you just in case. It should move faster by that time so even the flooding threat (which is the biggest in weaker systems) should be lowered considerably if it were to make a direct impact.
Gil has slightly re-intensified as a tropical depression but should fall apart in the next couple of days. It is not a threat to any land masses as it should stay well south (a few hundred miles) south of the Hawaiian islands as a weakened open wave, if even that at all.
There are no other areas of interest that are a threat in the short term but we may have to watch the EPAC again for some development off of Mexico by the end of the week.
By: hurricaneben, 9:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2013
After Dorian made a very brief comeback late Friday into yesterday, its remnants are falling apart and racing out to sea while we are tracking 2 tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific--neither of which are any concern for land.
Gil has weakened into a tropical depression and further weakening is expected as it generally moves out over the open Pacific waters. It is no threat to land.
Tropical Storm Henriette has formed from TD-8E earlier today and now has strengthened some more, with winds up to around 45 MPH. More strengthening is forecast as it generally heads west at 8 MPH then makes a more NW turn by tomorrow before hooking back westward by mid-week. At this time, there is no threat to land whatsoever from Henriette and it does not look like there should be. It might have a shot at attaining hurricane status by Wednesday but cooler SSTs should help weaken it beyond that point.
I'll have an update tomorrow or Tuesday.