Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 9:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Dorian's remnants have fell apart in the past 24 hours and now is not expected to bring anymore than some increased rain showers to The Bahamas through Wednesday and South Florida around Thursday, while Flossie just caused very light damage in Hawaii as it tore through barely as a tropical storm late yesterday. But there are 2 new areas of interest to watch, neither appear to be an imminent threat to land.
Tropical Storm Gil has just formed as of 5 PM EDT with winds around 40 MPH well southwest of Baja California. Gradual strengthening is forecast as it moves off to the WNW then makes a westward turn, most likely not posing any threat to land masses in the foreseeable future. It has a good shot at briefly attaining hurricane strength as early as Friday morning but cooler SSTs beyond that should work to cease significant additional strengthening. Likely, by the time it gets even close to Hawaii (if it does), not much will be left of Gil at all.
We have another area of interest just south of Baja California that has a rather strong chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by the end of the week, and the model consensus generally takes it out to sea on a similar path that Gil is taking (or forecast to take)--meaning that the Baja California nor Mainland Mexico should be worried much at all but we can't rule out some effects in Hawaii in the long run if it can hang around that long or stick in that direction.
I'll have another update tomorrow or on Thursday.
By: hurricaneben, 5:57 PM GMT on July 29, 2013
Tropical Storm Flossie is weakening as it starts to impact Hawaii with squally weather and the threat for some flash flooding. Winds are now down to around 45 MPH so the winds aren't a significant concern but the very heavy rainfall may pose a flash flooding risk so that's something to watch out for and may be unfolding in the next several hours if not right now. Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated total amounts near 15 inches, is expected for much of the island chain, mudslides in steep terrain are a valid possibility so we'll have to keep an eye on that one as well but for now our biggest call to watch is the likelihood of locally significant flash flooding. All this wet, vacation wrecking weather should diminish by late tomorrow so your Wednesday may be a great day to enjoy the sun as it comes out but be very careful as any elevated flooding that does occur may still persist over low-lying areas, to tourists and residents alike: make sure you know what you're driving into, taking chances in this case often proves deadly.
Invest 91L, which is made up of the remnants of Dorian, showed some promise for re-development in the past 12 to 24 hours or so but hasn't got its act together since. An overnight RECON found no sign of a closed low-level circulation so despite some thoughts it could get re-upgraded to a tropical depression or even tropical storm, that did not happen. Still, increased rain chances due to enhanced moisture will spread over South Florida by mid to late week--some showers becoming heavy and possibly capable of localized flooding--but we do not expect a widespread significant weather event unless Dorian really just shoots back up in organization. Strong upper level winds should keep that from happening, at least in a major way. There is still a chance so the NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon. This is down from 50% last night. We will have to see how things unfold.
Otherwise, there is an area of disturbed weather south of Baja California that has a very low chance of short term TC formation, but no significant areas of interest aside from Flossie and the remnants of Dorian. I'll likely update tomorrow, or on Wednesday, depending on my plans.
By: hurricaneben, 7:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2013
The tropical train keeps on rolling--Tropical Storm Dorian has been gradually weakening and falling apart, now the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing while Tropical Storm Flossie has strengthened quite a bit and may actually bring squally weather to the 'Big Island' by the start of the upcoming week though as a quite weaker tropical storm and another area of interest (90L) may bring wet weather to the Northeast US in the next few days, the question is could it develop?
Our first area of concern is Tropical Storm Dorian which has been the main headline since the start of the past week. Winds are now down to 40 MPH and further weakening should occur later today into a depression and likely a remnant low in the next couple of days. There does not appear to be any significant threat to land from Dorian now--increased rain chances for Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands are definitely in the forecast but due to the lack of organization and low intensity, I don't expect more than some sporadic moderate to heavy showers on these islands. There's always the chance of regeneration later down the road, maybe in the Florida Straits/Gulf Of Mexico, but dry air has interfered with the structure and intensity so much that even that seems unlikely.
Tropical Storm Flossie is now the more relevant story in the tropics because it may pose a threat to Hawaii around Tuesday, though the threat won't be that substantial. Flossie has strengthened to now around 65 MPH so that's quite a bit but weakening should start in the next 24 hours and it will definitely be weaker by the time it nears the Hawaiian islands. Looking at Flossie's pace, we could see some localized flooding and minor wind damage but not as high of a flood threat as if it were moving slower. The motion is at 20 MPH so that will limit the amount of heavy rainfall that will fall in areas most affected. So something to watch, outdoor plans may be wrecked come Tuesday or Wednesday but it's worth waiting out because we should see conditions greatly dry up by Thursday, going by the current forecast track. The last time a tropical storm caused any direct impacts to the island chain was with TS Omeka in December 2010. Many hurricanes' remnants have caused increased rainfall and/or surf but it's relatively rare to see a tropical cyclone directly hit the Hawaiian islands.
An area of low pressure has formed just offshore NC Outer Banks and is moving NNE in the general direction of the New England coastline. Some development may occur in the short term but not all that much due to the colder waters that lie in its path. There is an existent chance we may see a TD/TS briefly spin up by tomorrow, so there is that limited window of opportunity but it has to act quick or the unfavorable conditions (particularly SSTs) will tear it apart. Regardless, an increased chance of wet weather in the next few days for the Northeast US and maybe some windier conditions will likely play out so be alert for that possibility. The NHC gives this one a 20% chance of TC formation by Monday afternoon.
I'll have another update tomorrow or Monday.
By: hurricaneben, 6:54 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
The cooler SSTs and dry air has taken its toll on Tropical Storm Dorian in the past 12 to 24 hours--now winds are slightly down to around 50 MPH and its structure has become far less organized. Model consensus has taken a shift to the south and therefore it is an increased direct threat to Hispaniola and Cuba next week however it is now forecast to basically struggle all that time and possibly weaken further. The center will likely be just north of Haiti (possibly over the northern tip) by Tuesday but due to the storm's very fast movement, flooding won't be as much of a concern, still something to watch out for. It does appear that the US East Coast threat has also lessened for now but with this change in shifts to the south, this means the chances of impacts in Florida and especially the Gulf Coast has gone up--that is, if it keeps itself together for that long. Any impacts on South Florida should occur towards the end of next week (Wed PM into early Fri) and if we do see it make it into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will be the following weekend that we will need to watch. Still a lot of factors are still uncertain and the forecasts are very prone to changes so it would be wise to closely monitor the progress of Dorian.
TS Flossie is stronger but should greatly weaken as it hits cooler SSTs early next week and may impact the Hawaii island chain (Honolulu area) as a tropical depression so any travel plans may get soaked next Tuesday but it would be quick and worth the wait.
By: hurricaneben, 6:55 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
The tropics are definitely ramping up with Tropical Storm Dorian's winds now up to 60 MPH and a likely concern for Hispaniola, N Lesser Antilles and potentially the continental United States within' the next 1-2 weeks. We are also monitoring Tropical Storm Flossie in the Eastern Pacific which isn't much of a concern to land but we will break both down anyway.
The biggest headlines in the tropics for as much as the next 10 days or so will likely remain Tropical Storm Dorian which has strengthened overnight and now has winds up to 60 MPH. Conditions aren't great for intensification but they aren't overly unfavorable either and additional strengthening is forecast by this weekend when it may encounter increasingly warmer SSTs, after a brief weakening phase (if that even does occur at all). Now the Northern Lesser Antilles, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti are really supposed to closely monitor Dorian despite the forecast taking it just to the north and flooding may be a concern regardless of intensity. By the time it nears Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it may be very close to hurricane strength so the outer bands could dump some very heavy rainfall anyway, something to keep an eye out for. Models generally want to turn it more northward/NW by the middle of the week when it should be near The Bahamas but any shifts to the east or west can make a huge difference in the potential threat to the mainland United States. If it takes a more westerly track, we could see it get stronger and threaten Florida to North Carolina as a hurricane but if it recurves sooner, it will be North Carolina and points upward that will feel any direct effects--if even that. So we still have several days to monitor the progress of Dorian, stay closely tuned. A lot can change within' that time frame, but especially if you live anywhere along the US Atlantic Seaboard (from Florida to Maine) and Atlantic Canada, now would be a particularly great time to review your hurricane plans.
Back to a tropical entity that's not as much of a threat to land, Tropical Storm Flossie is way out in the Eastern Pacific and is moving west at a relatively swift pace. Winds are only at 40 MPH, some strengthening could occur in the next 24 to 36 hours or so before hitting cooler SSTs as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii. Fortunately, highly unfavorable environmental conditions should greatly weaken it into a mere depression before coming into contact with the northwestern tip of the island chain. So don't expect any travel plans to be greatly wrecked, especially if you live in or are visiting the more densely populated/visited Honolulu area. So far, it just seems that increased rain showers and breezy conditions will be any impacts the island chain may feel--maybe urbanized minor flooding in low-lying areas. Stay tuned for later forecasts and updates, regardless.
I'll have another update sometime tomorrow on Dorian and maybe Flossie.
By: hurricaneben, 4:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2013
Tropical Storm Dorian has formed overnight and winds are now around 50 MPH. Somw additional strengthening is expected in the next 24 hours or so before it runs into cooler waters but don't think this should completely tear it apart. NHC forecasts this to hold onto TS strength til the point it nears the Northern Lesser Antilles by the weekend and if it does manage to hold on for that long, it might become something to watch for the Lower 48 and The Bahamas into next week because it will run into much more favorable conditions by that time. So it's not an imminent threat to land but something to keep a close eye on for those in the NE Caribbean and potentially the CONUS.
By: hurricaneben, 8:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2013
Invest 98L has continued to organize since yesterday and now has a well-defined circulation, isn't far at all from reaching TD status and in fact any slight organization from here will warrant an upgrade. With a bag of moisture around it preventing dry air from interfering, it is becoming increasingly likely that we could see something spin up at any time. Much cooler SSTs and dry air will start to interfere regardless by Thursday so seeing an 'Ana (2009)' type scenario unfold is a possibility--Ana briefly became a tropical depression on its first round near the Cape Verde Island then 3 days later re-strengthened into a mid range tropical storm before being torn apart for good while near Puerto Rico. A lot remains to be seen but the models are now coming into consensus that it will give a lot of heavy rain and some gusty winds to the Northern Lesser Antilles by around the weekend/early next week. As far as any eventual impacts to the Lower 48 go, it's far too early to tell. Dry air will definitely prevent anything strong from spinning up in the next several days but beyond then, conditions may improve in favor for regeneration. Again a lot of time to monitor the progress of 98L (or soon-to-be TD4/TS Dorian), if we do get an upgrade, I'll update with a new blog post.
By: hurricaneben, 6:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2013
After well over a week of absolute quiet in the tropics, there finally maybe an area of interest somewhat worth watching as it emerges off Africa and shows signs of organization. Invest 98L has organized since it exited off the coast of Africa yesterday and fairly favorable conditions (mostly a lack of dry air) could help it additionally develop in the next 2 days or so before running into very dry air which should tear it apart or at least cause it to rapidly weaken by the middle to end of the week. At this rate, it is quite possible we may see a TD/TS form out of this as early as tonight or tomorrow but should be short lived if anything and not have enough time to strengthen much more than a weak to moderate TS. Odds are pointing toward an eventual recurve but where exactly remains unclear. We'll have a lot of time to monitor (re)development and I don't see anything strong forming out of this in the next 4-5 days at least. NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon. I'll have another update tomorrow afternoon (or sooner, if warranted).
By: hurricaneben, 2:14 PM GMT on July 10, 2013
What looked to have been a formidable threat to the SE US yesterday is now quickly weakening and being torn apart as it races towards a Hispaniola landfall later today and may degenerate into a tropical wave by the time it passes over Haiti. This does not mean that Haiti and Eastern Cuba is going to be spared from the flooding threat, it just means that any system approaching Florida or the SE US Coast by the weekend into early next week may be a lot weaker with lesser impacts. Whatever's left of Chantal (which shouldn't be much at all) will move up the east coast of Florida bringing some wet weather for the weekend but not much more than that and just possibly re-organize somewhat into a weak tropical storm/depression by Sunday or sometime around then, if it hasn't made landfall by then. All residents and visitors from the Florida Keys to South Carolina should just keep updated with weather forecasts if they have travel or outdoor plans in the above mentioned corridor. There is still the possibility that it goes even further west and south--taking a course into the Gulf Of Mexico, there have been a decent batch of models hinting at that but now the only real potential for getting a soaker is the Southeastern Coast of US and even more so Haiti/Cuba.
I might update tomorrow, depending on the status of Chantal and any forecast changes.
By: hurricaneben, 3:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2013
Tropical Storm Chantal is now giving the Lesser Antilles what should be the most significant impacts. Having strengthened somewhat in the past 24 hours, Chantal now has winds up to around 60 MPH and further strengthening is possible as it races its way towards Hispaniola. This is looking especially dangerous for Haiti where many still live in displacement tent camps following the tragic earthquake more than 3 years ago, and any period of heavy rainfall can yield for tragic consequences. Dominican Republic and southern Haiti are under tropical storm warnings as they anticipate higher winds and very heavy rainfall but the one thing that may be working in their favor is Chantal's very fast forward speed at 26 MPH which will limit the amount of rainfall they may get as compared to if it was slower but with 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in the forecast, flooding is still a major concern esp. in Haiti's case nonetheless and with Chantal possibly nearing hurricane status by the point of its passing sometime tomorrow. After impacting The Bahamas on Thursday as a weaker tropical storm, there is the possibility that a ridge of high pressure may shove it more westward in which case a possible landfall along the Southeast US from around Vero Beach FL toward North Carolina could occur but that is still far out and we will have to monitor this scenario closely for any changes south, north or out to sea. Again, I am most worried about what Haiti may face as any high rainfall amount over a short period of time may result in a potentially significant death toll from the flooding that ensues.
I'll have another update tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 3:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2013
Well, overnight, we have had 95L organize straight into TS status and has thus been named 'Chantal'. Tropical storm watches and warnings are up for portions of the Lesser Antilles but additional strengthening will be a hard goal to overcome for Chantal. This blog post will be about Chantal.
95L has organized enough overnight for the NHC to upgrade it to Tropical Storm 'Chantal' and it is now a short term threat to portions of the Lesser Antilles where TS watches/warnings are up. However additional strengthening has been difficult since then as its quick forward speed has allowed for dry air to get sucked into the circulation. Winds have just increased but only slightly as of 11 AM EDT--now up to around 45 MPH. Its movement at 26 MPH will bring it to the Lesser Antilles region as early as tomorrow, islands at most risk for impacts will be Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique and Guadelope where TS warnings are all in effect. Saint Vincent and Puerto Rico are under tropical storm watches. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts near 6 inches, may occur. Because of the fast forward motion, damage/flooding potential may actually be limited on these above mentioned islands of the Lesser Antilles. After impacting the island chain, Chantal should continue on a track that would take it very close to or ashore Haiti as a stronger tropical storm and that's where the more concerning flooding impacts may take place. It is unlikely to become a hurricane, at this time it appears that the Lower 48 will not see any significant impacts--Chantal is forecast to be just east of SE Florida this weekend as a weakened depression so while higher seas and increased rainfall are valid possibilities there, no significant direct impacts are expected. I'll have another update on Chantal tonight or tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 12:35 AM GMT on July 08, 2013
Invest 95L has organized further today and is very close to becoming a tropical cyclone, it could be one at anytime in the next couple of days and beyond while Tropical Storm Erick weakens in the Eastern Pacific.
Invest 95L has continued to organize over the past 24 hours as it makes its way westward in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles, now is very close to TD/TS status and a RECON flight is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. The odds are increasing in favor of a track into the Caribbean and this scenario should not be taken lightly. It is still far too early to tell whether the Lower 48 will be directly affected and where the impacts will be but it will be something worth watching well into the week. Regardless, all Lesser Antilles residents should prepare for the event of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall at the very least with TS conditions a very strong possibility--higher than that cannot be ruled out either. NHC gives this a 70% chance of TC formation by Tuesday evening.
Tropical Storm Erick is weakening as it makes its way west-northwest away from the SW Coast of Mexico. Flooding rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts, is still expected to cause some major problems in SW Mexico and now southern Baja California but the worst may be subsiding. Further weakening is expected as it clips the southern tip of Baja California in the next 24-36 hours then fizzles out by mid-week. So no direct impact but the heavy rainfall has the potential to cause some significant flooding by the time all has subsided.
I'll have another update tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 12:44 AM GMT on July 07, 2013
The tropics are continuing to show signs of activity with Invest 95L organizing its way through the Far Eastern Atlantic with a shot at TC formation in a part of the basin that rarely does see such activity in Early July, as well as Category one Hurricane Erick which is bringing high winds and flooding rainfall to the SW Coast of Mexico. Invest 94L isn't expected to additionally develop much but may bring its round of wet, windy weather to Texas and Dalila is losing its name.
We will start out by discussing Invest 95L, located about 950 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This strong tropical wave has been showing signs of organization in the past 12-24 hours and has the potential to develop into a formidable system in an area that rarely sees tropical cyclones this early in the season but climatologically speaking isn't impossible either: we've seen Bertha (1996) become a major hurricane on July 9 before coming ashore North Carolina as a category two as well as another Bertha (2008) which peaked as a category three in early to mid July--it's all about how the conditions are setup and environmental conditions are set to increase even further in favorability so it is certainly a possibility that we may be looking at a named system even by the start to the upcoming week. Models are now getting into a general consensus that it will directly affect the Northern Lesser Antilles by roughly around the middle of the upcoming week and it could very well be as a tropical cyclone, but exactly how strong it gets at that time and where it goes from there is entering the 'uncertain' zone. It could easily enter the Caribbean, threaten The Bahamas/Florida, head up the US Eastern Seaboard or recurve out to sea. Again it is not a tropical cyclone yet, if it does become one, that's when we'll get a better grip on the eventual path but it is something to watch given the eventual uncertainty and favorable environmental conditions. The NHC gives this a 30% chance of TC formation by Monday evening, I'd give it around a 60% chance of ever becoming one.
This one is much less organized and less likely to develop but is somewhat responsible for causing severe flooding conditions in the Florida Panhandle including widespread road closures and flooded homes. Less widespread, but considerable, flooding reports have also come in for much of the rest of the Southeastern US all as part of a broad trough. Now the heavy rains and winds are set to impact the Texas/SW LA coastlines. Up to 3 inches of rainfall may fall in SW LA through early Wednesday and isolated significantly higher amounts are also possible so minor to locally significant flooding is a valid concern but I highly doubt it will reach the magnitude as seen in the Panama City area over the past couple of days. One thing that now appears to be unlikely though is TC development because of unfavorable upper level winds. NHC gives this a slim but reasonable 10% chance of TC formation by Monday evening.
Erick has strengthened into a hurricane much earlier today and is now keeping its intensity as it closely parallels the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Winds are up to around 80 MPH, as previously forecast, it is expected to stay offshore the SW coast of Mexico but the outer fringes of Erick are certainly expected to leave a mark. Heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts near 8 inches, may cause an enhanced risk of some locally significant flash flooding and hurricane force gusts are a secondary hazard--while not as life threatening as the floods, downed tree branches and scattered power outages are another hazard to look out for close to the immediate coastline. So as seen with Cosme and Dalila, impacts can be felt well away from the center--and many Atlantic hurricanes have proven the same point (as seen with Isaac, Sandy, Ike, etc).
I'll have another blog post tomorrow or Monday.
By: hurricaneben, 1:13 AM GMT on July 06, 2013
The tropics are slowly but steadily picking up in activity with a strengthening Tropical Storm Erick close to hurricane strength and a developing Invest 94L drenching much of the US Gulf Coast and poised to bring its rounds of heavy tropical downpours to the Texas coastline this weekend. Meanwhile, is there something brewing way out by the Cape Verde? In this blog post, I will break down the impacts and anticipations with each of these systems.
Let's begin with Tropical Storm Erick which is steadily undergoing a strengthening phase--winds are now up to around 70 MPH and any additional strengthening could easily bring it up to hurricane status. It is projected to do so overnight but doesn't have much time to strengthen any further from that--it should hit much cooler SSTs as early as Sunday, making way for a steady weakening phase. Heavy squalls are approaching the SW Coast of Mexico and more should make their way ashore but just like the past 2 hurricanes (Cosme and Dalila), we will see yet another close call with the worst staying (barely) offshore. Rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts near 8 inches, capable of producing locally significant flash flooding should probably be the most formidable hazard. Gusty winds and rough surf are all secondary hazards in comparison to the flash flooding risk. It doesn't have to come ashore to cause damage--Cosme triggered dozens of mudslides and landslides (some of which blocked highways), flooded buildings, brought down many trees and killed a total of 3 people yet that stayed well offshore. Erick should come closer to land than Cosme did but is also quite smaller in size so we cannot rule out similar impacts either, the best thing to do is stay prepared.
This one is weaker and less organized, not even a tropical cyclone quite yet, but poses an overall flooding threat close to Erick's extent. This is the same disturbance in the Gulf Of Mexico I've been discussing for the past couple of days. Tropical rainbands associated with the large disturbance has triggered flash flooding and road closures across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle over the past few days, no reports of major structural damage fortunately. Substantial flooding rainfall is poised next to affect SE Texas/SW Louisiana this weekend. An additional 4-5 inches of rainfall may impact the NW Florida coastline through early Tuesday with similar but slightly lower amounts for the Lake Charles LA area. Organization has increased and we may see some additional development and more may occur but should remain at a slower pace. A northward motion should bring 94L near a Galveston landfall by Sunday or Monday and there is a decent chance (we cannot rule out) that we may see a TD or weak TS briefly develop before landfall. Whether or not this system organizes to that extent, the impacts should remain about the same--heavy flooding rainfall, higher seas and occasionally windy conditions. NHC gives this one a 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening.
Convection near the Cape Verde Islands has been showing signs of organization. Model consensus is split on either recurving it or taking it towards the Northern Lesser Antilles by this time next week. NHC gives it a rather slim 10% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening and that's mostly due to unfavorable upper level winds and higher shear in that region. If it takes the Lesser Antilles path, more significant development is much more likely.
As TD Dalila tears apart and heads out to sea, this wraps up this blog post. Check in for tomorrow's latest.
By: hurricaneben, 4:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2013
Happy 4th Of July and for this special holiday, we now have 2 tropical cyclones to track in the Eastern Pacific as well as a weak area of low pressure that is bringing an enhanced flooding risk to parts of the US Gulf Coast and inland Southeast US.
We will start with Tropical Storm Dalila which is currently weakening at a rapid pace. Winds are now down to 40 MPH and further weakening may bring Dalila down to TD status perhaps in the next few hours. Swells affecting the Pacific Coast of Mexico have greatly weakened and as discussed before, there remains no threat to any other land masses. If you do know of ships in Dalila's path, alert them if possible for the potential of relatively higher seas and occasionally heavy rainfall--although Dalila is falling apart and should continue to do so.
Tropical Depression Five-E is something to be more alert about for those along the Pacific Coast of Mexico. No watches or warnings are up for anywhere attributed to the depression yet. As said, there is no immediate direct threat to the coastline however may nudge its way closer to SW Mexico as a weak to mid range tropical storm sometime tomorrow and the potential for some increased winds, seas and locally heavy rainfall does exist. It is still appearing to be another 'dodge the bullet' scenario for NW Mexico as seen with the past 2 hurricanes but we can never rule out the possibility of the system moving closer to land than projected so we will continue to monitor the progress of this newly formed tropical depression.
The one other area of interest we are monitoring is associated with a broad trough of low pressure extending across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. The activity is moving generally westward or west-northwestward in the direction of western Gulf Of Mexico. The chances of short term development at this time are on the low side due to unfavorable upper level winds but these winds may weaken in the next couple of days as the activity makes its way towards Texas and NE Mexico where something trying to spin up is much more plausible. Regardless, heavy tropical downpours is resulting in the ongoing risk of flash flooding along the eastern Gulf Coast and may shift inland toward Georgia and the rest of the Southeast US. As much as 6 inches of rainfall is forecast for the western Florida Panhandle through Sunday morning with 4-5 inches projected for eastern Tennessee. The NHC gives this AOI a 10% chance of TC formation by Saturday morning, I'd give it a 30-40% chance of ever forming.
By: hurricaneben, 7:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
While not explosive in activity, the tropics still are churning out some interesting systems to monitor. None are an imminent TC threat to the Lower 48 but one of those may bring some serious flooding conditions to the eastern Gulf Coast.
While earlier forecast to resume strengthening, category one Hurricane Dalila continues to maintain its strength, winds remaining at around 75 MPH. As it keeps on nearing much cooler SSTs, a weakening phase may begin as early as tomorrow and we may see dissipation by the end of the upcoming weekend. Southwestern coast of Mexico continues to see some dangerous swells which translates to unfavorable swimming conditions but even that will only steadily decrease in the coming couple of days. Other than that, any impacts on land are little to none.
Invest 97E has continued to show signs of organizations and with a now more conducive area for development, a TD/TS forming in the next day or two is definitely a higher likelihood. Models are coming into agreement that it will just barely miss a landfall or close brush along the Pacific Coast of Mexico but increased flooding rainfall and possibly some stronger winds are likely hazards anyway. There stands the chance of a more direct impact in Baja California but that's rather uncertain at this time. Anyway odds are getting in favor of a potential TS Eric to talk about by the end of the week and a weaker hurricane eventually spinning up from this developing system cannot be ruled out either. So something to closely monitor for SW Mexico--those who missed out on Dalila's worst impacts. Will it just be another close call with minimal impacts to land? See, the model consensus is stronger by now so we will likely have quite wetter and windier weather to face anyways in SW Mexico than seen during Dalila but models can always shift to the west and south so we'll monitor the situation anyway but nothing to anxiously prepare for. NHC gives this one a strong 70% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon.
An area of interest over the Yucatan associated with a broad trough of low pressure that we discussed yesterday is spreading out in convection size. Very heavy rainbands has already produced some locally significant flash flooding in portions of the Florida Panhandle with road closures and localized evacuations the main impacts so far. The activity should move westward and additional heavy rainfall over above mentioned areas may give way to a prolonged considerable flooding concern. More western portions of the Gulf Coast may see the flood risk slide their way towards the holiday weekend. Rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches may affect the western Florida Panhandle by early Saturday with 1.5-2 inches over southern Alabama and 1-1.5 inches over southern Mississippi during that time frame. From Sunday into Tuesday, an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall may linger from southern Louisiana to the Pensacola FL area. Environmental conditions aren't very conducive for development but the flooding risk is high enough that people should be on the lookout for any flood warnings and/or evacuation orders in their area from Tallahassee to New Orleans, especially if they live in areas typically vulnerable to significant flooding. Flash Flood/Flood Watches are up for much of the Southeast US as interior areas as far north as Tennessee and Kentucky may see increased rainfall capable of producing some considerable flash flooding.
I'll make another update on this situation tomorrow morning/afternoon--have a safe 4th Of July and holiday weekend!
By: hurricaneben, 12:34 AM GMT on July 03, 2013
The tropics are starting to pick up somewhat with a developing Invest 97E off the Pacific Coast of Mexico and yet another area of interest worth monitoring over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico right now.
Dalila has strengthened to a hurricane much earlier today and has maintained its strength since then as it continues to push its way away from the Pacific Coast of Mexico and out to sea. Winds are around 75 MPH with milibars down to around 987--and some additional strengthening may occur in the next 12 hours before it runs into cooler waters which would make way for a more swift weakening phase from there. No land masses appear to be threatened by Dalila from this point on, there has been no reports of damage associated with Dalila from Mexico or any land masses for that matter but high surf will remain a concern in the next couple of days even as Dalila keeps pulling farther and farther away from land. So for those tourists and residents alike along the NW Pacific Coast of Mexico and possibly southern Baja California, don't venture far into the ocean or at all if you're a weak swimmer and there won't be any danger. By the end of this holiday weekend, Dalila is likely to have dissipated.
A tropical disturbance which started to develop off the Pacific Coast of Mexico last night is continuing to show signs of organization and the chances of potential TD/TS formation are steadily rising its way up the ladder. While any development is currently slow, an imminent increase in conductivity for environmental conditions may boost the chances of development even further and there is a strong possibility of us seeing TD-5E or TS Eric form in the next couple of days. Models are fairly spread out so there is the decent chance of a direct risk of landfall or close brush to the Pacific Coast of Mexico but on the flip side, a relative 'fish spinner' is another valid possibility so it's something to watch--if it does make landfall, odds are strongly against a major hurricane threat but a tropical storm or even a weak hurricane making a direct hit are plausible scenarios so something to watch but nothing to get too fussed up over. The NHC gives it a formidable 50% chance of TC formation by Thursday evening. A more direct threat to Baja California than the other cyclones this year cannot be ruled out either. We will watch 97E closely.
A surface trough is producing an area of thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan and some of the eastern Bay Of Campeche. Environmental conditions are currently not very favorable for development but is projected to increase in favorability over the next few days as the activity makes its way toward the Bay Of Campeche at around 10 MPH. If it stays as its pace or slows down, there is a very decent chance out there of us seeing something try to spin up as it follows a path that should take it most likely into NE Mexico towards the weekend/early next week. There is the possibility it may affect Texas's weather (especially the southeast portions) during that time frame but that all depends on how organized or intense and how far north as it ends up. Low chance of TC formation in the short term but we'll watch it anyway for more likely development later in the week. NHC gives it a rather low 10% chance of TC formation by Thursday evening--I'd give it a 30-40% chance of becoming one in its lifetime.
By: hurricaneben, 9:11 PM GMT on July 01, 2013
Tropical Storm Dalilah has strengthened some more--now packing winds around 65 MPH as it prepares to move away from the Pacific coast of Mexico. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts near 5 inches, and tropical storm force winds are possible along the coastline but these expected impacts really aren't enough to cause any major damage. Any rain and wind should lessen as Dalila makes a westward turn out to sea in the next 12-18 hours. No other land masses appear to be at risk for Dalilah at this time, additional strengthening could bring it up to a hurricane in the next 6-12 hours but as we approach the middle of the week, rapidly cooling SSTs in Dalilah's path should cause the system to enter a weakening phase.
Gulf Of Mexico AOI
A flareup of convection in the SE Gulf Of Mexico should bring the increased risk of locally heavier rainfall to portions of the Gulf Coast on Wednesday and the 4th Of July. Low to moderate wind shear may assist in some slow development but nothing very significant in terms of organization is expected and the NHC hasn't highlighted any potential for development quite yet. I'd give it a 20% chance of becoming a TC before making landfall in the middle to later part of the week somewhere along the Gulf Coast (more likely Louisiana and Texas according to a general model consensus).