hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Tropical Update 2012: Hurricane Sandy Near Landfall In New Jersey/Delaware Coastlines

By: hurricaneben, 10:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

A record coastal flood event is underway for much of the Northeast US Coast, including but not limited to Manhattan and New Jersey, with a storm surge as high as 11 feet forecast for Long Island Sound. This could translate up to flooding of nearly catastrophic proportions in low-lying areas, significant at the very least, and damage will likely be of major proportions. The prolonged high winds, with gusts as high as 90 MPH near the coast, will (and already is) causing widespread power outages and these outages will likely be for a very long duration. Winds are near 90 MPH with Sandy--making this nearly equivalent to a category 2 but the impacts expected in many areas could exceed category 2 levels. Inland higher elevations of areas such as West Virginia and Maryland should prepare for winter storm-conditions as Sandy passes through during an outbreak of cold temperatures. For everyone up there affected by Sandy, blessings go out to you--stay safe.


Hurricane Sandy Poses Major Storm Surge Threat To Mid-Atlantic/NE US Coast (NYC/DC)

By: hurricaneben, 9:56 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

Millions of residents up and down the US Eastern Seaboard from Virginia to New England are prepping for what could be a storm unlike any they've ever seen. Hurricane Sandy is forecast to interact with a trough of low pressure shortly, bend more westward and turn into an unprecedented extratropical system with TS force winds extending a huge 520 miles out from the center which means even if you're not in the immediate path of Sandy, you might still get quite some major impacts. One of multiple hazards here is the storm surge. With some areas forecast to receive a surge of 6 to 11 feet above ground level, coastal damage may be severe in lower portions of Manhattan and other adjacent parts of the NE US Coast and inland flooding may also get quite significant with isolated areas picking up over one foot according to forecasts and these forecasts have been consistent. And over inland higher elevations, we might be talking about something hardly ever seen with a tropical-like system...a heavy snowfall threat. Blizzard warnings are already up for much of West Virginia. Also prolonged winds of TS to even hurricane force near coastal areas of Delaware and New Jersey may lead up to extended power outages--winds itself aren't forecast to be as destructive as it is widespread. So if you've been waiting for a record-breaking extraordinary weather system unlike any we've seen before, but not particularly a catastrophe (although with all these expected impacts, major damage is a high likelihood in many areas), Sandy could go down as 21st Century's 'Storm Of The Century'. Quite a historical event underway with multiple hazards associated--and that's just a brief summary of what's to come.


Hurricane Sandy One To Be Closely Monitored For All Along the US Eastern Seaboard

By: hurricaneben, 10:34 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

The US Eastern Seaboard, from North Carolina to Maine, continue to anxiously prepare for a storm that could be unlike any other--maybe not that historic, but something quite unprecedented without a doubt. As Cuba & Jamaica continue to slowly recover from severe surge/wind damage which killed nearly 40 throughout the Caribbean, The Bahamas is finally seeing weather conditions slowly improve. The Florida East Coast has been (and is still) receiving some milder, but still significant, effects such as wind gusts over 50 MPH and minor coastal flooding but nothing considerable in terms of damage. Further up the coast, along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, impacts may be a bit more significant impacts with winds as high as hurricane force and moderate coastal/inland flooding likely impacts--the system's center is forecast to come ashore Lower New Jersey area as an extratropical storm with winds of borderline hurricane-force so that's definitely enough to do some quite sustainable damage but how much impacts exactly is still unclear. Also inland higher elevations may see winter-storm to even blizzard conditions so a lot of hazards with Sandy--as more models come into a better agreement of Sandy merging with a trough of low pressure...generating a powerful storm for extratropical status.


Tropical Update 2012: Sandy An Increasing Threat To US East Coast

By: hurricaneben, 10:10 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

...As you all know, it's a lot more complicated than a simple 'Hurricane Sandy' least for the US East Coast. Sandy, now a strong and dangerous category 2 hurricane, is pounding The Bahamas with damaging winds and an elevated storm surge threat. Cuba got the brunt with major damage after getting struck by Sandy overnight--which was nearly a major hurricane at the time of landfall. US East Coast, from North Carolina to Maine, should keep progress as odds are increasing that high winds, coastal flooding and flooding rainfall may be the results of Sandy interacting with a trough of low pressure by this weekend into early next week. Florida East Coast will also feel impacts--winds near TS force and minor coastal flooding are possibilities along the state's Atlantic Coastline the next 24 hours. Will keep you updated with this significant hurricane 'Sandy' and potentially historical weather event that may be brewing for the US East Coast in the not-so-far future.


Hurricane Sandy Pounds Jamaica & Cuba, The Bahamas Next

By: hurricaneben, 9:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy is emerging off the coast of Jamaica after striking the island earlier today as a category one, with winds at around 80 MPH. Winds haven't decreased notably since landfall and Sandy is forecast to make landfall yet another landfall in SE Cuba tonight/early tomorrow--likely not much stronger than it is right now. Then The Bahamas should see hurricane force winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge tomorrow into Friday and the Florida East Coast is also on the lookout for possible TS conditions where tropical storm warnings are up as well so right now it's Cuba and The Bahamas that need to prepare the most for Sandy's fury. After that, it all depends on the scenario you choose but it is quite possible, as hinted by some models and model runs, that Sandy will get caught up in a trough of low pressure that would translate into a potentially record-breaking nor'easter event with damaging hurricane-force winds, significant coastal flooding, a lot of rain and higher-elevation snow...quite an event if that is to unfold but just SOME models and it isn't a highly likely scenario...we'll just have to wait and see.

TS Tony
Tropical Storm Tony, with winds now up to 50 MPH, is losing topical characteristics and poses no threat to land--no concerns for any land masses.


Jamaica & Cuba Prepare For TS Sandy, Bahamas & Even FL Also On Alert

By: hurricaneben, 10:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2012

The main concern in the tropics is Tropical Storm (likely soon-to-be Hurricane) Sandy but Tropical Depression Nineteen is also out there--just not as great a concern to land as Sandy is.

TS Sandy
Tropical Storm Sandy is slowly strengthening, winds now up to 50 MPH. A more steady strengthening could bring this up to hurricane strength by tomorrow when it's supposed to cross Jamaica and head for another landfall in Cuba later that night. Those of you in Jamaica and Cuba should really start making their preparations ASAP--because conditions are deteriorating already as of this afternoon, especially along the southern coast of Jamaica. The Bahamas should also be on alert and South Florida may also feel some impacts though to a slightly lesser extent by the end of the week. The threat doesn't end there--models are calling for a potential extratropical nor'easter-type system to form as Sandy merges with a trough of low pressure which could bring a lot of heavy rain, winds and potential coastal flooding to the US Eastern Seaboard/Northeast US from North Carolina all the way up into New England and even towards Canada. Some model runs of some models have even depicting this complicated weather scenario to be a historical one at that so all eyes on Sandy.

Tropical Depression Nineteen has formed yesterday but has been struggling since then. Conditions remain favorable for this to become a tropical storm by tonight or tomorrow before environment favorability decreases. But whether it strengthens or not, no land masses should be concerned of this system at this time.


Tropical Update 2012: TD-18 Forms, Jamaica & Cuba Should Watch

By: hurricaneben, 3:10 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

99L has just now developed into Tropical Depression Eighteen as of 11 AM EDT. Gradual strengthening should bring this up to TS strength much later in the day and could possibly be a minimal hurricane by the time it makes landfall in SE Cuba late Wednesday/early Thursday. Jamaica should also get a brush or brief landfall as a stronger tropical storm by early Wednesday. This definitely bears watching for those in Jamaica...Cuba and The Bahamas. As for the Lower 48, I don't see a direct threat or any major concerns at this time though some minor impacts in Florida is possible by Thursday/Friday with increased windy conditions, high surf and minor coastal flooding. Of course a lot can happen in the next few days so this newly-formed depression certainly bears some watching.


AOI Being Monitored For Development In Central Caribbean

By: hurricaneben, 11:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2012

While the tropics are relatively quiet, there is one area of interest that is being monitored for possible development. It is slowly getting its act together and conditions are favorable for more development as it continues to embark on a slow westward journey through the Caribbean Sea. A TD/TS forming from this one is definitely a decent possibility as early as Sunday or Monday. NHC gives this a fairly low, but manageable, 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening. This is up from the 10% chance it was given earlier today.


Paul & Rafael Both Gone

By: hurricaneben, 11:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2012

Paul has now dissipated and Rafael has became fully extratropical. Other than the demise of these 2 systems, the tropics are presently void of activity.


Hurricane Rafael Brushes Bermuda;Paul Downgraded To TS As It Bears Down On Baja CAL

By: hurricaneben, 12:30 AM GMT on October 17, 2012

Hurricane Rafael
Hurricane Rafael is brushing Bermuda with winds near TS force and rainfall of 2 to 4 inches which may cause minor to locally moderate flooding. Damage, overall, should be minor if any from Rafael as it skirts Bermuda to the east. No other land masses are threatened.

TS Paul
Tropical Storm Paul, just downgraded from a hurricane as of 5 PM Pacific time, is starting to make landfall along the western coast of Baja California. Residents there were put under major concerns this morning as the forecast track then had landfall at CAT2 strength but's no longer forecast to even be a hurricane at landfall which is imminent. Still locally significant coastal flooding and minor to moderate wind damage may occur such as downed trees, minor structural damage and scattered to numerous power outages.


Major Hurricane Paul An Increasing Threat To Baja;Rafael Heads For Bermuda

By: hurricaneben, 10:34 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

TS Rafael
Tropical Storm Rafael is still very close to hurricane strength. It should become a hurricane shortly and pass just east of Bermuda late tomorrow as a minimal hurricane. Nothing major is expected in terms of damage but TS Conditions still can cause some minor damage and TS warnings are up so interests in Bermuda should prepare. So far, it does not look like the Lower 48 will face a threat of any kind.

Hurricane Paul
Hurricane Paul has strengthened explosively into a category three major hurricane this afternoon. Weakening is expected from here but hurricane warnings are up for Baja California so while the area should not expect a catastrophic major hurricane, a brush from a weaker hurricane is still forecast in the next 36 hours and may lead up into minor to locally moderate damage.


TS Rafael Strengthens Some More, Bermuda Should Watch

By: hurricaneben, 12:05 AM GMT on October 15, 2012

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda as Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen, now with winds up to 65 MPH. More strengthening is expected and this could become a hurricane by Tomorrow before hitting cooler waters on Wednesday and weakening. Bermuda may not get the worst but may receive increased winds and rainfall as Rafael passes just to the east of the island as a category one--of course a lot can change so residents there, just keep an eye on Rafael.
Meanwhile, TS Paul has been strengthening and could become a hurricane by tomorrow. There is no major threat to land, Baja California may get a brush as a weaker tropical storm later in the week but nothing enough to cause any significant damage--if at all.


TS Rafael Strengthens As It Brushes PR/Virgin Islands;TS Paul Forms

By: hurricaneben, 1:07 AM GMT on October 14, 2012

TS Rafael
Tropical Storm Rafael is continuing to batter the US Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico with very gusty winds and lots of heavy rainfall, likely enough to cause some rather significant flooding down there. Winds are now up to 50 MPH and further strengthening is expected, this could become a hurricane by Monday and Bermuda may be in for a near-brush with possible hurricane/likely TS conditions so residents in the island just need to prepare for the worst but right now, fortunately, it doesn't look like the island should expect to face another Fabian or anything like that, just enough to do generally minor damage for the most part but it's always good to be prepared.

TS Paul
Tropical Storm Paul has formed and strengthening could bring it up to a hurricane by Monday but it should be briefly at that strength. Threat to land? Possibly but the way things are looking, not a big one as Paul should be very weak--barely a tropical storm--by the time it even nears Baja California. If the area does manage to see some effects late into next week, it should just be increased rainfall and possibly some gusty winds. I don't expect anything major in terms of impacts or damage.


TS Rafael Affecting NE Caribbean & Puerto Rico;TD Patty No Major Concern

By: hurricaneben, 12:45 AM GMT on October 13, 2012

TS Rafael
Tropical Storm Rafael has formed and is forecast to continue to impact the US Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico as it heads NNW and slowly to gradually strengthens. Puerto Rico & the Virgin Islands just need to prepare for increased heavy rainfall and very gusty winds--I doubt anything major in terms of damage should occur as it is fairly weak now but isolated low-lying areas may see quite significant flooding so be careful there. Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may also wanna keep updated as the forecast track suggests a potential threat to both areas next week most likely as a strong tropical storm but the Lesser Antilles seem to be the most impacted in the present/near-term.

TD Patty
Patty is weakening, barely a tropical depression, and shouldn't really cause any significant impacts on land just increased rainfall in The Bahamas but the risk of damage should be very little to none. Florida may also get some enhanced moisture in the next few days from Patty's remnants--not even enough to cause a widespread rain event, just increased chance of thunderstorms.


TS Patty Forms But Should Be Short-Lived & No Major Concern;98L Still Worth Watching

By: hurricaneben, 9:57 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

TS Patty
Tropical Storm Patty has unexpectedly formed from 97L just east of The Bahamas. This is in an area where most storms tend to eventually affect land but there shouldn't be much of a concern with Patty here as hostile conditions should make Patty be a very short lived system and with slow movement, by the time it reaches The Bahamas, it will likely hardly be a depression--if it's even together by then--which should be by the weekend and dissipation is expected around that time. So The Bahamas should probably just get some increased showers and slightly elevated winds if at all but damage, if any, should be minimal to none.

Invest 98L
Invest 98L continues to gradually develop and a TD/TS forming from this seems to be a rather strong possibility. Northern Lesser Antilles should feel the most squally weather from 98L by Friday and the system may be a tropical depression or even storm by then so it's worth keeping an eye on for them though no major preparations should be done as 98L still isn't even a tropical cyclone. After affecting these islands, models suggest that Bermuda may be threatened and just maybe the Lower 48 so we have time to watch it. NHC gives this one a 50% chance of TC formation by Saturday afternoon.


Tropical Update 2012: 98L Slowly Organizes;97E In EPAC

By: hurricaneben, 9:57 PM GMT on October 10, 2012

Invest 98L
Invest 98L is taking its time to develop and is headed for a more favorable environment. A TD/TS forming from this one in the next couple of days seems like a decent to even strong possibility now and the Northern Lesser Antilles look likely to get some wet and probably windy weather possibly as a named system (Patty) by the weekend or so. I don't think the Lower 48 will see a direct impact but it's possible and Bermuda may get threatened so we'll watch. For now it's just an AOI, not even a named system or depression, so nobody needs to be really that concerned about it yet. NHC gives this a 30% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon.

Invest 97E
Invest 97E has developed just off Mexico's pacific coast. Some wet weather is occurring near the immediate coastline and a TD/TS forming from this one also possible. Most models keep this relatively out at sea but it could be a close call for Baja California so they should be wary of 97L but not too concerned yet. NHC gives this a 30% chance of TC formaation by Friday afternoon.


Invest 98L Being Monitored

By: hurricaneben, 10:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

The tropics are relatively quiet: Invest 98L has the chance of gradual development in the Central Atlantic. Models make this a potential threat to N Caribbean & possibly Bermuda. The NHC is giving 98L a 20% chance of TC fornation by Thursday afternoon.


Tropical Update 2012: 97L Not Likely To Develop, Olivia A Strong Tropical Storm

By: hurricaneben, 12:38 AM GMT on October 08, 2012

The odds of Invest 97L developing into a TD/TS is looking a bit less likely now since it has just hours ago--even then, the odds were relatively on the low side. It is fairly disorganized and it has a very short window to develop into something named or numbered which it probably won't. Most models generally do take it near The Bahamas then either out to sea or towards Bermuda...if there is anything left with the system by then. NHC gives this a 10% chance of TC formation by Tuesday evening.

TS Olivia
Tropical Storm Olivia is a relatively strong tropical storm with winds up to 60 MPH. Some additional strengthening is forecast overnight before starting the weakening process by tomorrow night due to more unfavorable conditions. A hurricane churning out from this one by peak tomorrow is not very likely but certainly not out of the question, however it poses no threat to land.


TS Oscar No Threat To Land;Nadine Gone

By: hurricaneben, 10:05 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

With Nadine gone, this blog post will be brief. Tropical Storm Oscar, with winds at around 45 MPH, is forecast to weaken and dissipate shortly and is not a threat to land. Also: an early-season winter storm is bringing snow accumulations potentially toward 12 inches along with windy conditions to portions of the Northwest and Midwest such as Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

I won't be able to post til Monday as I will be on a camping trip.

Updated: 11:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2012


TD-15 Not A Threat To Land, 'Long Lived Nadine' Delivering Final Glance At Azores

By: hurricaneben, 9:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

TS Nadine
Tropical Storm Nadine has weakened quite some more, winds now down to 45 MPH. It is forecast to brush the Azores Islands by tonight or early tomorrow and gale force winds are already kicking up over western parts of the island chain but the way things are looking, fortunately, not enough to cause significant damage if any damage at all. Azores will be the last islands Nadine should ever effect as tomorrow will likely be the last day of Nadine's long-lived life due to the system approaching much colder non-tropical waters to the north.

Tropical Depression Fifteen has formed in the Central Atlantic but should be very short-lived and no threat to land whatsoever. Slight strengthening into a minimal tropical storm by early tomorrow is possible but most likely nothing more than that as it will hit highly unfavorable conditions by Friday.


TS Nadine Nearing Azores;96L Nearly A TD

By: hurricaneben, 9:26 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

TS Nadine
Tropical Storm Nadine continues its slow weakening trend as it nears a brush with the Azores Islands that could inflict gusty winds on the island and light to moderate rainfall amounts up to 2 inches. With TS Warnings up, a wet and windy day tomorrow and on Thursday should be in store but nothing major is anticipated in terms of impacts or damage.

Invest 96L
96L has been steadily organizing as it enters a more favorable environment and is now very close to TD status--should be one in the next day or so. Fortunately most models take it relatively out to sea though it is possible Azores may see yet another brush this weekend/early next week likely not any worse than what Nadine is forecast to bring--if anything at all. NHC gives this a 70% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon.


Tropical Update 2012: 96L Develops While TS Nadine Weakens & Targets Azores

By: hurricaneben, 10:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

TS Nadine
Tropical Storm Nadine is weakening as it heads in a course for a likely brush with the Azores Islands by Wednesday/Thursday--a tropical storm watch is in effect for those islands so western portions of the Azores should just basically prepare for a wet and fairly windy latter half of the week, not much more. After affecting the Azores Islands, Nadine should lose tropical characteristics by the time the weekend nears and not harm any other land masses.

Invest 96L
The Atlantic AOI I discussed yesterday is slowly organizing as it enters an area relatively favorable for development. A TD/TS forming from this seems like a strong possibility sometime this week, maybe in the short term, and the NHC gives this a decent 40% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon. If models verify--there should be no threat to either Bermuda, Caribbean or the US though coastal western Europe may eventually feel impacts from the extratropical remnants. Of course it's just an Invest--we'll get a better picture when a TD/TS forms if it does.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.