hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Tropical Update 2010: Earl A CAT 4 Threatening The Eastern Seaboard, Fiona And More

By: hurricaneben, 10:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

Well it's been few good days since I last posted. Since then a lot of things in the tropics happened as you might know such as Danielle became extratropical, Hurricane Earl battered the Northern Lesser Antilles as a dangerous major hurricane and now Earl is a powerful category 4 storm. Winds of 135 MPH sustained and a pressure of 932 mb, Earl is headed NW at 14 miles per hour. It is currently bringing high surf and gusty winds to the East Coast of Florida and those conditions should spread up North if not get worse for anywhere from NC to Canada over the next several days. It is supposed to track just to the East of The Bahamas as a category 4 storm and in fact tropical storm warnings are already in effect for portions of The Bahamas and even hurricane watches are up for parts of NC & VA as the potentially deadly storm is forecast to remain JUST offshore or maybe even skirt along the US East Coast as a still intense major hurricane bringing strong gusty winds and very heavy rainfall to anywhere from South Carolina up to Canada. Eventually the wind shear will begin to increase and the SSTs will begin to significantly plunge down as Earl heads more to the North and enters a more unfavorable area for intensification so it will fortunately weaken at some point but nonetheless even by the time it skirts along the US Eastern Seaboard, the storm is likely to remain strong and dangerous so for any of you along the US East Coast and Atlantic Canada must pay extremely close attention to the very threatening storm. But that certainly is not all for the tropics and now that Danielle is extra-tropical if not gone, we have two more areas of interest to talk about. One is the weak Tropical Storm Fiona which should remain weak due to the moisture from Earl and should take a little more Eastward track than Earl possibly eventually somehow affecting Bermuda with some disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds but Fiona should not even be close to threatening land as much as Earl however if you live in Bermuda or possibly Atlantic Canada, you might want to stay tuned for further updates to the weak and harmless Fiona just in case this maintains strength or even intensifies as it heads toward Bermuda with no serious threats. What could be a little more of a threat to the Carribean is Invest 98L. The NHC is somewhat ignoring the system, giving it a 10% chance of development but I think it should be just a little higher like anywhere from 20-40%. Some of the models do make this stay Southward and on a Westward track therefore entering the Carribean and perhaps eventually threatening the GOM or Central America but that is way too far out to tell so just monitor the system closely and that's all. There is another tropical wave over Africa which should be more of a concern than Invest 98 or Fiona in the eventual terms but hey you never know, we may get lucky by having the potential invest stay disorganized and not threaten any of us whatsoever yet we should take caution over the next few weeks due to the brewing tropics. Bottom line is anywhere along the US Eastern Seaboard (excluding Florida/Georgia, although you still should expect high surf and gusty winds) could very well be in the zone of destruction for the extremely dangerous and powerful Hurricane Earl.


Tropical Update: Tracking Hurricane Danielle, TS Earl, Hurricane Frank & More...

By: hurricaneben, 9:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

The tropics are now getting extremely active and are supposed to get even more active as we get dangerously close to the peak of the hurricane season. We have 2 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at the moment--Strong Hurricane Danielle which if any stronger would be a major hurricane and still weak but not for long Tropical Storm Earl which has some chance to be even stronger and better organized than Danielle. So we're really keeping a close eye on the tropics. Hurricane Danielle is as of 5 PM AST, a borderline category 2-3 hurricane heading NW and is located well Northeast of Puerto Rico. It is forecast to intensify a little bit more before peaking out as a category 3 hurricane relatively away from any land mass but is still expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Bermuda and even threaten to bring some minor swells to the Northeast US Coast/Bermuda this weekend or early next week as it draws on a more polar path over the next several days at an average to relatively fast pace of 15 MPH. But we're also tracking Tropical Storm Earl which could be even more of a threat to the Carribean and The Bahamas and although odds somewhat favor a recurve shortly with this system there is still a higher chance of Danielle recurving which it already seems to be doing. Now it is forecast to strengthen, become a hurricane most likely on Friday and approach category 3 status this weekend or early next well a bit to the East of The Bahamas and Florida moving more N or NNW but the GFDL model does make this a massive category 4 hurricane near The Bahamas and moving NW to N probably also relatively away from the US coast but may bring some rather rough surf and gusty winds to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic US coast so we should pay very close attention to both Danielle and Earl but probably more to Earl because of its decent threat to parts of the Carribean if it keeps on a Westward motion and doesn't recurve soon enough. We are also tracking Invest 97L which just formed off Africa earlier in the afternoon and although it may not get nearly as strong as Earl, a minimal hurricane is definitely not out of the question. Bermuda has some possibility that it'll be affected somehow but besides that Invest 97L is no imminent threat to land. Still, we have days to watch it so if anything happens between now and then we'll at least be prepared. In the Eastern Pacific, we have Hurricane Frank which is a borderline category 1-2 hurricane and is not supposed to strengthen much more from this point but may threaten Baja California as a much weaker system bringing decent amounts of rain and some rather gusty winds but nothing too dangerous to be concerned about. That'll be all for this update. Stay tuned.


Tropical Update 2010: Hurricane Danielle In Atlantic, E PAC TS Frank And More To Come

By: hurricaneben, 9:10 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

Well the tropics are certainly getting very active now that we have Hurricane Danielle--our second hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. It's currently going WNW and may make a NW then more N turn over the next couple of days therefore missing the Carribean islands but may somehow cause some troubles for Bermuda if the track generally makes it a little more West. That being said, this is not supposed to threaten the US East Coast one bit and has a higher chance of affecting Canada if it goes more Westward than the official forecast track. The intensity forecast does make it a major hurricane within' the next day or two but may weaken gradually by the time the weekend approaches so it's still not very likely to be another Fabian or something but may bring somewhat rough seas to the Bermuda coast and even some gusty winds and isolated showers as well but nothing terrible. Besides that in the Atlantic, we have brand-new Invest 96 which just came off the coast of Africa last night and has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within' the next 48 hours although I honestly intend to put the odds a little higher perhaps 50% or 60%. Like Danielle, it shouldn't affect the US at all but unlike Danielle likely won't even threaten Bermuda. It probably will become a tropical depression by Wednesday and a tropical storm later that night but shouldn't be as strong as Danielle, perhaps a category 1 hurricane at most. But there are a couple of tropical waves over Africa which could emerge in a little bit and become a tropical depression and also may have a higher chance of threatening the Carribean or the US than the Invest 96 or Danielle has but it's way too early to tell. Invest 96 will likely become Earl and by the weekend there is some possibility we may even be up to Gaston which is average if not a little above average for Late August/Early September. In the Eastern Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Frank which is weakening from the 60 MPH storm we had last night but may bring some showers and gusty winds to Mexico although not much more. So we'll keep on monitoring the tropics for you in case something significant occurs tropical-wise. Comment and tell me your forecast on Invest 96, Danielle and the total amount of tropical activity for this season overall. Thanks.


Tropical Update 2010: TD-6 Forms In Far Eastern Atlantic

By: hurricaneben, 9:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Well this is one reason why forecasting isn't always correct. Invest 95L was forecast to become a tropical depression by at least Sunday and look what we have now. That's right, TD-6 is born and thriving in the Central-Eastern Atlantic and is moving at a W-WNW direction with surface winds of 35 miles per hour. It's forecast to become Tropical Storm Danielle by sometime this evening or later tonight and then intensify even more into a strong tropical storm by Sunday night and a hurricane by Monday afternoon then, that's right, become a borderline category 2-category 3 hurricane at least by Tuesday or Wednesday. Now the good news is that for now it's expected to take a more Northernly turn before it could affect the Caribbean islands and then stay out over the open Atlantic Ocean but could perhaps, if it keeps going Northwest rather than just North, somehow threaten Bermuda but this should not be another Fabian as you remember in 2003 the major hurricane that slammed through Bermuda and although 'Danielle' has some decent possibility to get as strong as Fabian if not stronger, the forecast does not make it have a direct impact on Bermuda and is probably not gonna do so however if you do have interests in Bermuda or even some of the Northeast Caribbean islands, you should keep progress of the developing storm. One of the models do make a tropical depression form in the Northwest Gulf Of Mexico near Texas later this week and could become Earl unless a potential system that's supposed to move just offshore Virginia does so first and makes the GOM system become Fiona. So the tropics are surely becoming quite active as usual for Mid-Late August and in fact in the Eastern Pacific we have TD 8-E of course and a brand new TD 9-E which could become a Category 1 hurricane paralleling Mexico in fact a tropical storm watch is in effect for West coast of Mexico. So there is a whole army of tropical depressions in the tropics and we are keeping a close eye on any development. Meanwhile, a ferocious thunderstorm has been pounding Boca Raton where I live and although it does not meet the standards of severe, very steady heavy rainfall is occurring and has been over the past half an hour or so and even a wind gust of 24 MPH in my weather station along with phenomenal cloud-to-ground lightning. Comment and tell me how's your weather where you live.


Tropical Update 2010: Tropics May Get More Active With Invest 95L Thriving

By: hurricaneben, 8:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2010

Well this week has been duller in activity than we thought it would be and is even pretty quiet for a typical season at this time of the year but things are about to change very soon now that, after a small period of inactivity, we have a thriving and favorable to develop Invest 95L. Invest 95L may not be extremely organized as a big hurricane but is trying to get its act together and could become 'Danielle' as early as Sunday which NHC is giving a medium chance of occuring by that time and I think is even high for at least a tropical depression to form by Monday. But don't whine over this becoming a tropical depression because many models suggest this will be a whole lot stronger. In fact, the SHIPS models makes this not only a hurricane but a major hurricane in about 4-6 days however the good news is that for now all land masses are relatively clear and shouldn't be affected much although as time goes by Bermuda perhaps may need to pay attention if the models shift a little further West which actually some models are doing. Now there are not much other areas of interest in the Atlantic that could be nearly as strong as Invest 95 here although there is a potential area of development for early next week that is supposed to move over Florida bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and then move into the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico and may have the opportunity to be something to watch there and although there isn't that much time for intensification the conditions are very favorable and if it stalls over there then we may be seeing something quite strong and dangerously close to home. Now we also have a weak tropical disturbance approaching Central America that should not be anything of concern and only may be an area to develop if it emerges into the Eastern Pacific which it isn't that likely to do so. Speaking of Eastern Pacific, we are tracking Tropical Depression Eight-E which should dissipate late this weekend and could become a weak tropical storm briefly this evening or early tomorrow morning but no later and should remain no threat to land like most of E PAC tropical systems with the exception of the devastating Agatha much earlier this season. My prediction of this season is a total of 13-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes (the first which might be our future Danielle or present Invest 95L). So stay tuned for more and I should have another blog post tomorrow or earlier if anything significant happens by then.


Tropical Update 2010: Tropics To Explode Later This Week, Regeneration Of TD-5?

By: hurricaneben, 1:31 AM GMT on August 16, 2010

Well since I was gone, Tropical Depression 5 quickly formed and dissipated from Invest 94L then brought some heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds to much of the Gulf Coast and is still doing so now. But after days of flooding rains and roaring thunder in parts of AL/MS/FL, the remmants are now heading back Southward and sometime later tonight or tomorrow morning could move offshore. Once it does that, it's supposed to develop significantly over boiling SSTs and relatively low wind shear likely back into a depression or TS Danielle probably at that. It's supposed to make a more Western track after that and then possibly more Northwest and move back onshore most likely Louisiana. One of the models do indeed make this a hurricane actually going way more Southward than most predict and then more Southeast heading for a Southwest Florida landfall so if that happens, many of you (including me) in the Southern portion of Florida should keep an extremely close eye on the system for none of you really want a hurricane in your area with a few exceptions. But it's still supposed to be a Gulf Coast threat rather than anything else but a potential major threat at that if it undergoes rapid intensification which I'm not sure is really gonna happen but still might given the favorable conditions and decent time over water. Now there is a well-organized tropical wave over Central Africa which once it emerges into the Atlantic sometime a little later this week could be a threat to develop into a tropical storm as most of the models predict and then toward the weekend may intensify even more and possibly become another hurricane in the Central Atlantic approaching the Leeward Islands but it's way too early to tell whether this will be a threat to the US or not. Besides that, we also have the NOGAPS model hint at a possible tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua late this week but it's also impossible to tell the exact odds of a US threat, most likely the Gulf Coast if anything. So the tropics is certainly beginning to get very active as we enter the peak of the hurricane season and will even get more active by the time we get much closer to September. There is also a tropical wave (Invest 90E) in the Eastern Pacific which is over relatively unfavorable conditions to develop but might slowly get its act together over the next several days but even if this becomes somewhat strong it should not be a threat to any land mass let alone the US so it's more like a bonus area of interest if you're getting too bored of the Atlantic. Again, the tropics are beginning to go steeply up the hill of activity as we approach September and enter the peak of the hurricane season so definitely the tropics need to carefully watched over the next a month at least and 5 or more additional storms by the end of the month seem like a very high possibility so stay tuned.


Tropical Update 2010: TS Colin Gone, Possible GOM Threat?

By: hurricaneben, 4:20 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

Well just a couple of days ago, our good friend Colin passed away and now we're tracking both Invest 93L and Invest 94L. The system with the most threat to land is, without a doubt, Invest 94L. Over the past couple of days, Invest 94L has been bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to much of Florida and is now in the Southeastern GOM moving to the WNW-NW at about 10 miles per hour. Even though this is not supposed to intensify into a total catastrophic monster simply because it has no time to become another Katrina before it makes a Louisiana landfall, a subtropical/tropical depression/storm seems very likely at this point and as one of the models suggest maybe a CAT I hurricane. So basically a major hurricane is not expected to happen but a minimal hurricane or at least a strong tropical storm is not that far-fetched actually especially if it spends more time over the boiling Gulf Of Mexico waters. Now what people don't realize is that yes this is an imminent threat to the BP Oil Spill as it is forecast to be strong enough to push the oil toward the coast or possibly onshore if this explodes in intensification and becomes a significant hurricane which doesn't seem too likely at this point but there isn't that much out there to stop at least a hurricane from forming so anywhere from Texas Eastward to the Florida Panhandle should pay attention to the progress to this developing system as this could be a threat to much of the Gulf Coast and although no catastrophe is expected, this could be some threat to develop. But that's the only game in town since we also have Invest 93L which has struggling over the past several days and is not forecast to threaten any land mass however could intensify into a strong tropical storm maybe almost a hurricane over the next few days but probably not as fast as Invest 94L which would likely become 'Danielle' and Invest 93L will become 'Earl'. In the Eastern Pacific, we have Tropical Depression Estelle which is continuing its weakening trend and the final advisory has been issued as this is basically already a remmant low. We also have Invest 90E which is forecast to take a Westward path and not be any threat to any land masses but could develop just not that quickly, probably into a weak tropical storm tops as this is just not that organized plus it is lying over unfavorable waters so don't expect much at all from this system. There is also a Cape Verde wave in the Atlantic which is still very disorganized but could develop just also not very rapidly as it is supposed to skim along the South American coast. That'll be all for this post.


Tropical Update 2010: Weak TS Colin Nears Bermuda, Invest 93L Nearly A TD

By: hurricaneben, 6:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2010

Well Tropical Storm Colin is still out there but barely as it begins to affect Bermuda with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Tropical Storm Colin at the moment is nearly stationary with winds of 40 miles per hour and 1012 millibars. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Bermuda due to the high chance of tropical storm conditions in the island. Conditions should improve in Bermuda sometime tomorrow and become all normal again on Monday as Colin pulls North away from the island and in the general direction of Canada before becoming extratropical. Tropical Storm Colin may still have the opportunity to re-strengthen just a bit before becoming extratropical but right now it's highly unlikely we'll even see a strong tropical storm from this, probably 50 MPH at most in contrast to what we've seen Thursday night, a decent 60 MPH. Now there is also Tropical Storm Estelle out there in the Eastern Pacific but let's shift our concerns to Invest 93L which is likely to become Tropical Storm Danielle by Monday or possibly even Hurricane Danielle by Tuesday or Wednesday. Fortunately, the system is supposed to stay far away from any part of the United States but if it keeps its WNW-NW track, it could threaten Bermuda possibly in a few days or so. In fact, one of the models make it nearly a category 2 hurricane by mid-week and if that happens while it's still strengthening and even if it doesn't affect Bermuda severely, then we have something to watch for sure. Speaking of models, a couple of models are hinting at an organized tropical disturbance in the Northeast GOM over the next week or so which is something to watch especially due to its proximity to the US Gulf Coast and high chance of becoming something like a tropical storm maybe a hurricane, which seems unlikely now but hey it's too far out to tell especially with the boiling waters and low wind shear that's supposed to rule the region soon, making landfall along Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. Invest 92L which sprung back into action a couple of days ago is new very weak and disorganized and is not expected to develop at all as it moves into Central America although if it emerges into the Bay Of Campache, then we might see some possibility of slight development over the next couple of days. We have Tropical Storm Estelle in the Eastern Pacific with 50 mile per hour winds. The good news is that Estelle is not going to affect any land masses at least it doesn't seem like it's gonna happen so far but it could strengthen slightly before weakening over cooler waters and we're gonna have to see what happens with this, one thing for sure it's not gonna affect the US by any chance and definitely not the BP Oil Spill. So keep updated.


Tropical Update 2010: TS Colin Reupgraded, New Invest 93L

By: hurricaneben, 2:59 AM GMT on August 06, 2010

So the tropics continue to be more interesting now that the remmants of Colin have finally been re-upgraded to a tropical storm and no it doesn't stop there, a relatively strong one with 60 MPH winds. Tropical storm warnings are already in effect for Bermuda as the storm is forecast to pass just to the West of the island and possibly reach hurricane strength by that time. Now it's not supposed to affect the Mainland US directly but some relatively high waves could be expected along much of the East Coast from North Carolina all the way up to Canada. The wave near Central America that was earlier this week near South America is not a threat to develop anymore but there is one new invest a little to the Southeast of Colin that could as well be 'Danielle' by this weekend into early next week. The good news is that it is even more likely to be a fish storm even though it could be at one point slightly stronger than Colin as a Category I or almost II as some of the models predict. But it is supposed to stay away from any land masses although that can change but at the moment it should not be any threat to even Bermuda. The Invest 99E in the Eastern Pacific is not organizing at all over the past day or so and could develop into a tropical depression tomorrow although, to me, it is slightly less likely than it was last night at this time. So what will develop down the road and will there be any threats to the US in the near term? We're gonna keep on watching the tropics for you in case anything that could threaten us in any way pops up out of nowhere like many systems at this time of the year. So keep updated whereever you are that could get affected by tropical cyclones and you'll be completely safe.


Tropical Update: Colin Gone, Or Maybe Not?

By: hurricaneben, 2:56 AM GMT on August 05, 2010

Well for the past day or so, Colin appears to be no more. But the chances of regenerating into a tropical storm seem to be increasing almost by the update. Will this be named Danielle if it does regenerate? Probably so, but if that happens then we may even have Earl from the South American tropical wave we've been tracking over the past couple of days which is now Invest 92L. If 'Danielle' forms or even if it doesn't, it will most likely head Northwest, North and Northeast out to sea and relatively away from any land masses. However, Puerto Rico and nearby islands is currently experiencing some thundershowers and breezy conditions from the remmants of Colin which may linger around over the next day or two as it pulls a little more Northward away from the islands and poses a potential minor threat to Bermuda or maybe even Canada in the eventual terms. Invest 92L at the moment has a slightly less chance of development due to relatively unfavorable area of development but might develop gradually and possibly into a tropical depression and then perhaps a tropical storm with a slight chance of being near hurricane strength at peak intensity over the next couple of days as it approaches the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico and then--as one of the models suggest, maybe toward Texas? We still have a few days to watch it and see what really happens if it could become a major hurricane in Louisiana or weak depression in Mexico although I doubt we'll see anything major from this, a weak category 1 hurricane the highest IF it gets lucky in intensification. Meanwhile, there is a Invest 99E in the Eastern Pacific which is very likely to become a tropical depression at any time as it moves parallel to the Mexico coastline then move more Westward away from land and an Invest 97E which is on the opposite extreme, highly unlikely to even develop significantly let alone a tropical storm. Overall the tropics are becoming increasingly more active and we may be seeing some unbelieveable activity as early as in a couple of weeks so the tension of the tropics is obviously growing and we should watch it very carefully from now through October.


Tropical Update 2010: TS Colin Struggling

By: hurricaneben, 3:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Well we now have our third storm of the season which is moving Westward and is supposed to pull WNW then more NW as we've been expecting over the past couple of days. But this Colin may not last that long as recently it's been having a very tough time trying to develop and it's headed for an unfavorable area for development so if it doesn't keep its act together and explode in intensification, the high wind shear could begin to kill it and by the time say Thursday rolls around, we may not even be seeing a tropical cyclone at all just a disorganized messed-up area of showers and thunderstorms. Now if it DOES keeps its act together, as I say, then it might have the opportunity to strengthen quite a bit possibly into a moderate/strong tropical storm but that's only if it keeps its act together. The path still takes it more Northward staying well to the East of The Bahamas and Florida and relatively clear of the islands but may eventually pose a threat to North Carolina if it keeps its act together. Now besides Colin, we have a newly-formed tropical wave skirting the South America coast which is in a very favorable area for development but due to its proximity to South America, the chances of significant development is much less than it could be if it were to be a just little to the North. But it still could develop just not too rapidly as it heads to the West in the general direction of Central America. I give this a 30% chance of eventually becoming a tropical depression before moving ashore Central America late this week and into the weekend. In the Eastern Pacific, we are watching a tropical disturbance which is pretty disorganized and might develop into something which is not very likely but it just might although fortunately it's supposed to stay out to sea and not affect any land mass let alone the United States. I'll have an update either tonight or more likely tomorrow.


Tropical Update 2010: TD-4 Forms In Central Atlantic

By: hurricaneben, 3:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

Well at last the Invest 91L we've been tracking lately has finally been upgraded to a tropical depression. The projected path is still going with a fish storm/US Eastern Seaboard path. The main thought is that later today or tonight this would be named Colin and then strengthen slightly over the next few days as it heads Westward and more Northward eventually somewhere between the US East Coast and Bermuda, both could expect high surf as early as this weekend and into the first part of next week. However there's still a possibility it could take a more Westward track into the Carribean or Northwest toward The Bahamas and South Florida although the chances are gradually decreasing of that actually happening. Basically the places that need to watch the system the most is anywhere from The Carolinas Northward to New England and all of Bermuda. The tropical disturbance in the Carribean continues to move inland and should not be a threat any longer. I'll have an update once this becomes a tropical storm.

Updated: 3:49 PM GMT on August 02, 2010


Tropical Update 2010: Invest 91L Still Not A TD

By: hurricaneben, 1:53 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

The tropics calmed down a bit but not a whole lot. We still have Invest 91L which still didn't gain a closed circulation but remains very organized and we still have a very good chance of having a tropical depression sometime later today. The models still are going with a Fish Storm or at least a minor threat to the US Eastern Seaboard (mainly NC/VA) but a lot can change as I said with the last blog post and we should keep a very close eye on the system for any major changes in development and path even for us in FL and perhaps even the Gulf Coast, you don't want to be too sure you're in the clear yet. So basically anyone in Bermuda, Texas all the way up to New England (including Florida), Puerto Rico and surrounding islands and just maybe if this becomes a Carribean threat down the road, areas such as Jamaica, Cuba and Mexico could keep their eyes glued on the storm. The intensity forecast is also hard to predict. If it stays away from high wind shear and cooler SSTs, this could become a hurricane or possibly major hurricane since we don't know anything at this point. But if it runs into the high wind shear, well it's not be good for intensification and development of the system. One of the models do make it a weak category 1 hurricane somewhere in the Western Atlantic between North Carolina and Bermuda so it's not like you should expect nothing from this disturbance over the next coming days. Speaking of nothing, the tropical disturbance we've been talking about that is moving its way ashore Central America now has a nearly 0% chance of development so likely tomorrow or by my next blog, we may not be talking about this at all. However, as we've seen with Invest 95L a little earlier in the season, things can change dramatically even as it makes landfall and there is a chance we could see an Invest 92L from this thing although it's not high at all. In fact if Invest 95L would have been any more organized/stronger, we would have had at least a TD make landfall and we may not even be talking about a Colin right now rather a Danielle or an Earl. Elsewhere, development is not expected within' the next 48 hours. I'll have an update later today or tomorrow.


Tropical Update 2010: Invest 91L Nearly A Depression, Weak Disturbance Near Nicaragua

By: hurricaneben, 11:55 PM GMT on August 01, 2010

Well, the Invest 91L we've been tracking over the past few days which absorbed another tropical wave known as Invest 90L that came off the coast of Africa has organized rapidly over the past day or so and is now just hours away from becoming a tropical depression or possibly even Tropical Storm Colin. Right now, the models take it West-Northwest toward the Northern Lesser Antilles before taking a more Northward turn and be a threat to either the Eastern Seaboard Of The United States or Bermuda. At the moment, the storm lacks a closed circulation but still has lots of convection inside it and as soon as it gains the closed circulation, then we have a pure tropical depression or tropical storm, for that matter. But about the models, with a system so far out in the Atlantic a lot can change over the next week or so as the disturbance draws more and more Westward and there's a possibility it could keep that Westward track and become a threat to the Carribean. Now will it do that? Maybe. Will it be a fish storm? Maybe also. We don't know the exact path and intensity yet being that it's so far away from any land mass. And if it enters the Carribean to the South of Puerto Rico, Haiti and surrounding islands then it might have the opportunity to strengthen more maybe into a hurricane, maybe even major as we've seen with Dean and Felix in '07. Of course it can always take a track North of the islands and toward The Bahamas and South Florida. The shear will be relatively high there so if it takes that path, then we can't expect a monster from it or anything but we can still see a decent storm if it wins against the shear, that is. So we'll have a heck of a lot of time to watch it. Now besides our invest here, we got a weak and disorganized tropical disturbance in the SW Carribean that we should not see even an OK-looking system from as it moves ashore Central America somewhere near Nicaragua and the surrounding areas but we still could keep an occasional look-out for development in case something similar to what happened with Invest 91L. In the Eastern Pacific, we've got Ex-Invest 97E which is supposed to dissipate anytime now and in the Central Pacific, we've got Invest 92C which is supposed to be no threat to land at all and weaken possibly dissipate over the next day or two. That'll be all


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hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.