We how have Hurricane Earl

By: hcubed , 6:48 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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31. hcubed
7:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
This morning's look at the tropics shows Earl past the 25 degree line (the tip of Fla), and zeroing in on the OBX.

So will drop tracking for our area.

Alo, shows Fiona weakened, but is re-strengthing, and being a threat along the same general track of Earl.

So I'll drop tracking for our area.

That leaves 98L (future Gaston), which is is showing a flatter track, and a possible entry into the Carib.

As it gets within range of the islands, and if the models support it, will start a track in about 2 or 3 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
30. hcubed
5:02 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
Will catch up with Earl and Fiona (if she's still around) in the morning.

Finding out, that with work, and a possibility of two-hour posts as it approaches, this can be a hassle.

Might re-think my start point (maybe waiting till it's approaching the outer islands), and checking to see if the support is there for a gulf strike.

All the models/cones were showing early turns.

The next (98L, future Gaston) is showing a flatter track, and a possible entry into the Carib.

So we'll wait till it gets close.

BTW - 25 years ago we were tracking a highly erratic Elena. headed for us, then to Fla, then back to us - hairy and scary.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
29. hcubed
12:38 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5

500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 5a

800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.7W
ABOUT 300 MI ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Still speeding along.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
28. hcubed
12:35 AM GMT on September 01, 2010
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25a

200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS N.C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26

500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS N.C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26a

800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS N.C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Now heading for the North Carolina coast.

Still a cat3.

Still watching.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
27. hcubed
3:43 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Current on Fiona:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4

1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 55.3W
ABOUT 440 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Still bookin'.

Don't know if it's gonna make hurricane or not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
26. hcubed
3:39 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Current on Earl:

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS N.C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

1425 miles out. Moved .5N and .7W.

Largest north movement in awhile. Maybe the turn?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
25. hcubed
12:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Now, Fiona overnight:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 2

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 50.8W
ABOUT 745 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2a

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 51.8W
ABOUT 670 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 3

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.0W
ABOUT 590 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3a

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 500 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

Same islands under watch again.

This storm is really truckin'.

In 9 hours, the overall movement was .7N and 4.4W.

Latest location makes it 2376 miles out.

Problem is, right now it's moving at 23 or 24mph.

103 hours out.

Scheduled to slow, scheduled to turn.

We'll see...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
24. hcubed
12:17 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
Overnight with Earl:

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22b

SUMMARY OF 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 100 MI NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 23

1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 105 MI N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23a

100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23b

300 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 66.4W
ABOUT 125 MI N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 24

500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 150 MI NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 290 MI ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24a

700 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 67.2W
ABOUT 175 MI NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 235 MI ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND.

So, over the last 10 hours, Earl has moved 1 degree north, and 1.7 degrees west. Still not the NW movement they've been predicting.

It's been averaging .1N and .17W per hour.

A true NW path will put it across so fla, and into the gulf.

Where's the turn??

Last mileage puts it 1482 miles out (divided by 13mph forward speed means 114 hours away, or 4.75d).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. hcubed
11:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22a

700 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 95 MI NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Same direction and forward speed.

Same wind speed.

Latest forecast chart shows no change.

Distance out is 1645mi (moved .1N, .4W).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. hcubed
11:16 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Now, back to Earl.

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22

500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 110 MI NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

Now a cat4.

Still on a WNW heading, moved .2N and .3W.

The new location makes it 1670 mi out.

No change in forward speed.

Not much change in track.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. hcubed
11:04 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1

500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

So this is the start for the Fiona track.

The starting mileage is: 2752

Forward speed puts the "hit date" at: noon on the 4th.

Time to check the models...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. hcubed
10:55 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
According to this, TS Fiona is born:

invest_RENUMBER_al972010_al082010.ren

I THINK that really reads TD8, but we'll be sure at the 5PM posting.

Yep, Fiona is born:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. hcubed
8:01 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory 21b

300 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 64.4W
ABOUT 60 MI NE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 120 MI ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

Still WNW, moved .1N, .4W.

Still not seeing the NW turn forecasted.

No change in winds or speed.

New distance is 1694.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. hcubed
6:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE

200 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

AT 2 PM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AND 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. hcubed
6:00 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

Winds up by 5mph - still cat3.

Movement was .3N, .4W. Closer to the NW turn?

Location puts it at 1720 mi out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. hcubed
4:29 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21

1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

Up to 120mph - now a cat 3 storm. If it makes 131, will be cat 4.

Forward speed is up by 1mph.

Moved .3N and .7W.

Still heading more west than north.

Location puts it at 1753 mi out.

Now, the Turks and Cacaios are under a TS watch.

5-day cone shifted more west.

AND - advisories will be every two hours for awhile.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. hcubed
1:18 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory 20a

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 25 MI NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Moved .1N and .5W.

Still not the drastic northern turn that was expected.

Forward speed slowed. That wind speed of 110 puts it at the upper edge of Cat 2. At 111, it becomes cat 3.

Distance at 1803.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. hcubed
12:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2010
The course of Earl has shifted from run to run (NHC cones).

First ones had the turn before 60W, then shifted to clipping the Hebert box, to entering the east and exiting the top, to coming out of the NW corner, and now show it exiting the west side.

Some people insisted that a hurricane would pass south of PR (katrinakat5).

Since the center of PR is at about 18.3/65.5, then it's currently even with PR's lat (and still to the east), the SOUTH passage will not happen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. hcubed
11:32 AM GMT on August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory #20:

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI ENE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 170 MI E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

No changes to forward speed or direction.

It's slowly pulling north - very slowly.

Since it's become a Hurricane, it's moved 1.2 degrees north, and 4.7 degrees west.

Latest distance is 1835 miles out.

The "cone of doom" shows a forecast of cutting between Bermuda and the U.S. (but getting closer to the EC with each advisory).

The OBX is within the 5-day cone now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. hcubed
11:18 AM GMT on August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory 19a

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 85 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Still Cat 2.

Still WNW.

Still moving at 15mph.

Distance is now 1875 miles out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. hcubed
5:14 AM GMT on August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory #19

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Now a Cat 2.

Still heading generally west.

Location puts it at 1922 miles out.

"Estimated arrival" is 6AM on the 4th (due to faster forward speed).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. hcubed
1:41 AM GMT on August 30, 2010
Earl Advisory #18a

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 100 MI E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 185 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Still WNW. Passed 60W without going above 20N.

Now inside the Hebert box. Most storms that went through this box wound up hitting Fla. There is still a forecast turn to the north, however.

Current forward speed and location make it 1974 miles out, 148 hrs or 5.88d away.

Still looking for the more northerly turn.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. hcubed
10:08 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

Still more west than north.

Now packing 85mph winds.

Current location makes it 2023 mi out.

144hrs, 6 days away.

Slower forward speed suggests the turn may be getting close to happening.

Still need to watch out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. hcubed
7:46 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
And amongst all the serious blogs posts, a bit of comedy to lighten things up:

46. katrinakat5 9:56 AM CDT on August 29, 2010

"...PUERTO RICO YOU GUYS WILL BE IN A HURRICANE WARNING AS DANIELLE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF YOU...IT'S ABOUT TO GET REALLY UGLY FOR YOU GUYS HONKER DOWN AND GET ALL SUPPLIES YOU NEED NOW...YOU HAVE A BOUT 24 HOURS THEN THE SKY IS GOING TO FALL OUT...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING A CAT 2 HURRICANE THEN..."

Then again, this blogger, as stomtop/stormkat/stormno/tacoman had forecast doom before.

Still trying to get one right...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. hcubed
7:15 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory 17a

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE


"...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA..."

And it looks like the north turn may be starting. The new WNW heading is the first "north" in about the last 2 days.

The forward speed has decreased to 15mph.

The new distance is 2063. With decreased speed, changes "hit" time to 6am on 4th.

We MAY be seeing the forecast northerly turn. Meanwhile, the islands are about to get hit.

Pray for them...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. hcubed
7:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
Hurricane Earl advisory #17

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

Now at 2099 mi out. 123 hrs away. about 5.4d.

So the new "hit" time has shifted, due to slower forward speed. Midday on 3rd.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. hcubed
6:50 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB

So we still watch.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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