...and the counters go wild... (edited)

By: hcubed , 11:32 PM GMT on June 07, 2012

Without even reading Dr. Masters blog, I can predict the theme:

CNN news reports "...Spring weather the warmest since 1910 NOAA says...".

So the whole blog will be bragging from the "counters".

But buried in the report they link to (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/5), they have charts all over the place.

Just one to put some things in perspective, found on this page (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?ar ea=warm-cold&year=2012&month=5), with the caption:

"...The percentage areas of the contiguous United States are computed based on the climate division data set. Those climate divisions having the monthly average temperature in the top ten percent (> 90th percentile) of their historical distribution are very warm and those in the bottom ten percent (< 10th percentile) are very cold..."

And the chart at the bottom of the plot tells something interesting - so far, in 2012, they're showing 47.88% vary warm, and 0% very cold.

But before we jump for joy at the obvious signs of CAGW, look at the other years that had no very cold for the entire year:

Very cold, by year.

1902, 0%
1922, 0%
1934, 0%
1939, 0%
1949, 0%
1951, 0%
1985, 0%
1986, 0%
2000, 0%
2001, 0%

So if only get ONE area that falls into the "very cold" this year, we won't tie with the previous 10 unprecedented times it's happened.

So what about the other end? The very warm?

Well, the current value of 47.88% for the first part of 2012 is exceeded by a value of 56.10% the entire year of 1896. We might break that this year.

But, since we're looking at extremes we see that the following years had zero in the VERY WARM column:

1909, 1917, 1923, 1929, 1945, 1961, 1967, 1968, 1971.

Really shows the variability of climate. Especially since the values of the "very warm" have had relatively decreasing values for the last few years (since the "warmest ever" year of 1998):

1998 40.34%
1999 4.10%
2000 33.98%
2001 25.34%
2002 8.02%
2003 15.86%
2004 27.89%
2005 2.94%
2006 23.68%
2007 13.59%
2008 3.99%
2009 21.13%
2010 15.50%
2011 2.46%

So as of now, we're showing up as the warmest since 1998. But still have some way to go before we hit the warmest since records began...

...Added... It didn't take long:

Spring 2012: most extreme season in U.S. history

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 2:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).