Doom and gloom, continued

By: hcubed , 1:50 PM GMT on January 11, 2012

Again, from here:

2015 Forecast

Again, easy to verify predictions:

"...Britain’s Met Office projects 2014 temperature likely to be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than 2004. “Here is the climate forecast for the next decade [2007-2014]; although global warming will be held in check for a few years, it will come roaring back to send the mercury rising before 2014. This is the prediction of the first computer model of the global climate designed to make forecasts over a timescale of around a decade, developed by scientists at the Met Office. The new model developed at the Met's Hadley Centre in Exeter, and described in the journal Science, predicts that warming will slow during the next few years but then speed up again, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the warmest year on record..."

OK, we've actually got one we can check on. They say this forecast is for the decade of 2007-2014. Wait - a decade is 10 years, right? This is only 7 years. Whatever.

Let's examine this: " least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998...". Since 2012 has just started, there's actually a very short time period here - using their "decade" of 2007-2014, they're saying that of those years AFTER 2009 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014), half of them will be warmer than 1998. Comes to 2.5 out of 5.

Since this is the Met Office, I'm going to assume they're using HadCRU values.

So, using this listing, (HadCRUT3 global) it appears that the "final" for 1998 was .820

Since 1998, nothing has come close.

2010 came out to .713C.

2011 came out to .543C.

That's 2 out of the 5. So for this one to come true (at least half), we're looking for the temps for 2012, 2013 and 2014 to ALL be greater than .820C. Might be rough, especially since in the 13 years AFTER 1998, NONE have been warmer - and by the end of 2000, they dropped a bone-chilling .459C below the "hottest ever" levels.

So by the end of the year, this prediction could be falsified.

To continue: "...Over the 10-year period [2007-2014] as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 deg C [0.3 degrees Celsius] warmer than 2004. The overall trend in warming is driven by greenhouse gas emissions but this warming effect will be broadly cancelled out over the next few years by the changing patterns of the ocean temperatures.” (Roger Highfield, Science Editor, “Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014,” The Daily Telegraph, London, England, United Kingdom, August 9, 2007 reporting findings in Doug M. Smith, Stephen Cusack, Andrew W. Colman, Chris K. Folland, Glen R. Harris, and James M. Murphy, “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model,” Science, August 10, 2007 317: 796-799 DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540)..."

Ok, looking at this part: "...2014 is likely to be 0.3 deg C [0.3 degrees Celsius] warmer than 2004..."

According to HadCRUT3, the "final" for 2004 was .611C. Adding .3C to that makes the projected temp for 2014 to be .911C.

We'll be watching that, and get ready to make the call...

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).