More on the doom and gloom forecasts.

By: hcubed , 1:43 PM GMT on January 10, 2012

Again, being taken from here:

2015 forecast

Arctic Sea Ice forecast:

"...2010-2015. Computer model forecasts taking into account sea ice thinning and albedo effects project an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean between 2010-2015. “The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 -- something that hasn't happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher. Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet, a Canadian research network, said the sea ice is melting faster than predicted by models created by international teams of scientists, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They had forecast the Arctic Ocean could be free of summer ice as early as 2050. But Fortier told an international conference on defence and security in Quebec City yesterday that the worst-case scenarios are becoming reality. ‘The frightening models we didn't even dare to talk about before are now proving to be true,’ Fortier told CanWest News Service, referring to computer models that take into account the thinning of the sea ice and the warming from the albedo effect -- the Earth is absorbing more energy as the sea ice melts. According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.” (No author credited, “Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer as early as 2010,” Times Colonist, Victoria, British Columbia, November 16, 2007)..."

OK, in 2007, they figured we could be ice free by now. But there's still 3 more summers to go.

Who else?

"...2013. Arctic ocean could be mostly ice free by 2013 according to NASA scientists. “Recent satellite data from the U.S. Space agency NASA indicate that sea ice in the Arctic and Greenland is melting at a faster rate than previously projected. VOA's Paul Sisco has the story. Climate scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, outside Washington, say the Arctic Ocean could be mostly ice free in late summer 2013.

‘The sea ice is decreasing faster than all the models predicted," says Jay Zwally, the ice satellite project scientist at NASA Goddard, ‘We not only have the warming of the atmosphere, we have a warming of the ocean that is affecting this. It has been surprising to everybody, this decrease in [Arctic sea ice] area. This is a marked departure, and this is suggesting to us that maybe we are getting at this tipping point.’” Arctic ice free. (No author credited, “NASA Scientists See Hastened Arctic Warming,” Voice of America, Washington, DC, January 9, 2008)..."

And a year later (2008) they moved the goalpost to 2013.

But Jay Zwally has even revised his own projection:

"...This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."..." (NatGeo, December 12, 2007)

2012, 2013 - somewhere in that time frame...

They have improved their forecasts, though. Just a few years before (in 2004), they had this to say:

"...Arctic sea ice could completely disappear during the summer as early as 2070. “U.S. scientists said Monday [October 4, 2004] that the extent of Arctic sea ice, the floating mass of ice that covers the Arctic Ocean, is continuing its rapid decline. Researchers at the [University of Colorado at Boulder's - CU Boulder - National Snow and Ice Data Center] said latest satellite information indicates the September 2004 sea ice extent was 13.4 percent below average, a reduction in area nearly twice the size of Texas. In 2002, the decline in arctic sea ice during September -- which traditionally marks the end of the summer melt season -- was about 15 percent, a record low. Sea-ice decline during September has averaged about 8 percent over the past decade, researchers said, and current computer models suggest the sea ice could completely disappear during the summer as early as 2070.” (“Summer Arctic Sea Ice In Decline,” United Press International, Monday, October 4, 2004 citing reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea Ice Declines,” October 4, 2004. See also Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis)..."

So it appears that anywhere from 2012 to 2070, we could have ice-free summers.

Or not.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).