More stuff from the IPCC report

By: hcubed , 8:07 AM GMT on November 20, 2011

"...A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events. Changes in extremes can be linked to changes in the mean, variance or shape of probability distributions, or all of these. Some climate extremes (e.g., droughts) may be the result of an accumulation of weather or climate events that are not extreme when considered independently. Many extreme weather and climate events continue to be the result of natural climate variability. Natural variability will be an important factor in shaping future extremes in addition to the effect of anthropogenic changes in climate..."

Once again, nice to see that it's not just CO2.

"...The impacts of climate extremes and the potential for disasters result from the climate extremes themselves and from the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Observed changes in climate extremes reflect the influence of anthropogenic climate change in addition to natural climate variability, with changes in exposure and vulnerability influenced by both climatic and non-climatic factors..."

See? It's not just CO2.

"...Rapid urbanization and the growth of megacities, especially in developing countries, have led to the emergence of highly vulnerable urban communities, particularly through informal settlements and inadequate land management (high agreement, robust evidence)..."

Gee, who would've thought that some of the vulnerability to climate extremes could be worse because of man's ability to manage the land (and not even mention CO2)?

"...There is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of change in some extremes..."

Agreed.

"...Confidence in observed changes in extremes depends on the quality and quantity of data and the availability of studies analyzing these data, which vary across regions and for different extremes..."

This is EXACTLY what the whole issue has been on, and one area that the Scientists and alarmists have been trying to push - statements that the instrumental record is flawless, or that the errors are not important.

My, how things change...

"...Assigning “low confidence” in observed changes of a specific extreme on regional or global scales neither implies nor excludes the possibility of changes in this extreme. Extreme events are rare which means there are few data available to make assessments regarding changes in their frequency or intensity. The more rare the event the more difficult it is to identify long-term changes..."

Once again, this has been something that the "denialists" have been stating - that the instrumental record is just too short to see any meaningful trend.

"...Global-scale trends in a specific extreme may be either more reliable (e.g., for temperature extremes) or less reliable (e.g., for droughts) than some regional-scale trends, depending on the geographical uniformity of the trends in the specific extreme..."

"...It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, on the global scale, i.e., for most land areas with sufficient data. It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia. There is medium confidence of a warming trend in daily temperature extremes in much of Asia. Confidence in observed trends in daily temperature extremes in Africa and South America generally varies from low to medium depending on the region. In many (but not all) regions over the globe with sufficient data there is medium confidence that the length or number of warm spells, or heat waves, has increased..."

Amazing. Areas with low amounts of instrumental data actually can have low confidence. Again, we knew this, as shown by the massive holes of no data when using GISS "un-extrapolated" data.

More later...


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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