Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).
By: hcubed, 4:32 PM GMT on April 07, 2010
My first forcast was for 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 4 major.
The forcast from Gray came out: 15/8/4.
Right on for the total and majors, off by +3 for the hurricanes.
Still listed as "above average". "...For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said..."
They also used 1969 (Camille) and 2005 (Katrina) as analog (comparable) years.
Didn't have to evacuate last year. Looking like this year, we may have to.
The base's standard for evac is within 650mi, and greater than a Cat 2.
So there'll probably be 2 or 3 evacs this year.
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