TUNNELS STOP "TICKING TIME BOMB" !!

By: cyclonebuster , 12:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2008

Kyle and Laura could be your next pending Catastrophe.Lets see if Kyle and Laura pan out in this situation??? Looks like Kyle and Laura can arrive somewhere on the East coast after forming in the Eastern Carribean Sea or Western Atlantic. This hurricane season I want to try something different with the "Tunnel" simulation. Lets suppose a catagory 5 hurricane is going to hit the USA this year with 165 MPH winds. In order for such a strong hurricane to exist we will assume it is well organized over 90 degree water. Lets assume the tunnels are in cooling phase generating electrical power and lets see how the computer model will compute wind speed of the hurricane based on SSTs prior to landfall.
Since the Tunnels can cool SSTs all the way down to 70 degrees lets have the computer calculate wind speed with every degree of drop from the 90 degree water in which the hurricane exists prior to landfall. This should work anywhere in the GOM or along the East coast. The first SST calculation at 90 degrees is given.

Will different computer models give us different results? How many models are out there that can give us such results.


MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ACTUAL POTENTIAL

70 degree water = 82 MPH
71 degree water =
72 degree water =
73 degree water =
74 degree water =
75 degree water =
76 degree water =
77 degree water =
78 degree water =
79 degree water =
80 degree water = 155 MPH
81 degree water = 160 MPH
82 degree water = 170 MPH
83 degree water = 180 MPH
84 degree water = 190 MPH
85 degree water = 200 MPH
86 degree water = 210 MPH
87 degree water = 220 MPH
88 degree water = 230 MPH
89 degree water = 240 MPH
90 degree water = 250 MPH


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81. cyclonebuster
2:35 PM GMT on July 28, 2008
Anyone finding Cicadas this year? I found this one on the 26th.



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80. cyclonebuster
2:20 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
See the model?
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79. cyclonebuster
6:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
What the Heck here is a 1/600 scale model of a tunnel station.

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78. cyclonebuster
5:27 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Ok! Time to swap the "TUNNELS" to Non-Cooling phase now that Dolly has almost made landfall and is forecast to go West into Texas. Remember during both stages of operation the "Tunnels" have continued to crank out Megawatt after Megawatt of pure clean hydroelectrical power 24/7/365 before during and after the storm.

The Gulfstream and Loop Current will begin to warm back up again slowly as the Tunnels will ramp the temperatures up slowly at about 1 degree every 4 hours.For now we will keep a watchfull eye on the tropical atlantic for other tropical storm formation and decide when to place the Tunnels back into cooling phase again if needed.
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77. cyclonebuster
3:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
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76. cyclonebuster
3:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
It is offically now a catagory 2 hurricane. The Tunnels would have prevented this as Kerry Emanuels
maxium wind speed potential based on SSTs tells us it would have only reached catagory 1 status with 78 mph winds while over 70 degree water.

See chart below :




000
WTNT34 KNHC 231457
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL
OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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75. cyclonebuster
3:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2008
This is about as strong as Dolly could ever get if the Tunnels were in operation.
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74. cyclonebuster
4:28 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Looks like half a hurricane to me.
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73. GulfScotsman
4:26 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
looks like half a tropical storm right now.

but that will change
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72. cyclonebuster
4:23 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
Looks like a hurricane to me folks. What say you????????


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71. cyclonebuster
3:49 PM GMT on July 21, 2008
New visible vort. fix is at 22.8N 89.9W.This is certain.

Link
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69. cyclonebuster
1:57 AM GMT on July 21, 2008
And now Dollys turn for the "Underwater Suspension Tunnel" simulation. Dolly would not have a chance to threaten the USA with 70 degree water in the loop current and cooling the GOM.If this plays out you will see how valuable the "Tunnels" truly are. I think with 70 degree water she can only get 78 MPH winds according to Kerry Emanuels maximum wind speed potential based on SSTs formula.
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68. cyclonebuster
12:44 AM GMT on July 20, 2008
Anyway, Christobal would never have a chance at a Cat 2 hurricane with the "Tunnels" in operation since they can cool the SSTs down to 70 degrees in this area. According to Kerry Emanuels wind speed potential based on SSTs the strongest a storm can get in 70 degree water is 78 MPH just a small Cat 1 hurricane.
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67. cyclonebuster
12:30 AM GMT on July 20, 2008
Anyway, Christobal would never have a chance at a Cat 2 hurricane with the "Tunnels" in operation since they can cool the SSTs down to 70 degrees in this area.
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66. cyclonebuster
12:04 AM GMT on July 20, 2008
MichaelSTL,

Yes the oil companies are bound to be mad at them but the insurance companies would welcome them. Perhaps,they can be the new energy giants here.
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63. cyclonebuster
1:22 AM GMT on July 19, 2008
So at ~26C SSTs the strongest a hurricane can get based on Kerry Emanuels formula is:

45 meter/second = 100.662 133 14 mile/hour
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62. cyclonebuster
3:00 AM GMT on July 18, 2008
Since the "Tunnels" are already in cooling phase this area of disturbed weather located at 31N and 82W could never reach hurricane status.

Link
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61. cyclonebuster
7:26 PM GMT on July 14, 2008
Cape Verde season seems to be in full September swing. The "TUNNEL" idea can prevent this from occuring in the future. Who wants the "CAPE VERDE" season to start a full two months early. At this time I am going to leave the "Tunnels" in cooling phase as 94L seems to be ramping up its activity. The area in which 94L is could mean this storm could go futher West than Bertha has. Still, I would think it would be unwise to remove the "Tunnels" from cooling phase at this time with such activity in the Atlantic right now.
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60. cyclonebuster
8:53 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Further proof the "TUNNELS" will weaken the hurricane came from proof that upwelling weakens hurricanes as mentioned in such discussions as this. The Tunnels upwell enormous amounts of cooler sea water to the surface thus mixing with the warmer waters at the surface and cooling them.As the storm passes over these now cooler waters the storm weakens.



000
WTNT42 KNHC 122037
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS COMPLETED TWO PASSES THROUGH THE EYE OF
BERTHA AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 79 AND 74 KT. THE
SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE DID NOT REPORT ANY HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...IN FACT...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE 58 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KNOTS...MAKING BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE NOT HOSTILE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT BERTHA HAS BEEN LOCATED
TOO MANY HOURS IN THE SAME AREA PRODUCING UPWELLING. THE HURRICANE
HAS LOST A LOT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS LARGE AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED.
THEREFORE...BERTHA COULD GATHER SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT GETS OUT THAT
AREA OF COOL WATERS INDUCED BY THE HURRICANE ITSELF. FOR
NOW...BERTHA IS KEPT AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BERTHA IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LARGER AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO....SO ONLY
A PAINFULLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND THREE
DAYS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND LOCATED BETWEEN AN EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH AND A LARGER CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE BERTHA ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED MY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 29.9N 62.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 30.4N 62.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 62.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.0N 62.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 34.5N 61.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 56.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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59. cyclonebuster
4:43 AM GMT on July 11, 2008
Looks like Bertha has gobbled up the ULL between her and Florida.


Link
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58. cyclonebuster
3:43 AM GMT on July 11, 2008
Ok the cool water from the Loop Current tunnel stations have reached the Key West Tunnel stations. This means the Loop Current tunnel stations can do the job of cooling the Loop Current and Gulstream together. We can now switch the Key West tunnel stations to non-cooling phase and still continue to crank out those hundreds of thousands of megawatts from both stations.The cool water has now traveled from the Yucatan Channel all the way up the East coast to North Carolina thus protecting the GOM and the East coast of the United States.Any catagory 5 hurricane crossing this safe barrier will be weakened to a weak cat 2 storm at most according to the maximum wind speed potential chart based on SSTs.

Link
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57. cyclonebuster
3:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2008
"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL
CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS TWISTS AND TURNS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT BERTHA COULD JOG LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO BERMUDA AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE SOMEWHAT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH."
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56. cyclonebuster
1:51 PM GMT on July 10, 2008
Why have the computer models been Eastcasting for the past 10 days and 2000 miles?
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55. cyclonebuster
1:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2008
One senerio that COULD happen not that it will happen but I have been seeing this for days now. Then it's Andrew all over again.

"The current trof may miss her, and that's why I'm calling for slower motion later. Another scenario, which is slim at the moment, is that she remains just far enough south, and the ridge over the south do something weird, like lift northeastward, and north of Bertha."

Yep! That's the ticket.It will roll over to the North of Bertha. You will see the current ULL between Florida and Bertha move westward as this takes place Bertha should follow it as the trof lifts out.

Anyways, my "Tunnel" simulation has protected the US coastline now from Key West to Jacksonville and has also cooled the loop current in the GOM in advance of any arrival of a hurricane.

Link
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54. cyclonebuster
12:31 AM GMT on July 10, 2008


The tunnels will prove man made global warming WAS real.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
53. cyclonebuster
12:14 AM GMT on July 10, 2008
"HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS BERTHA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVE IT BEHIND IN
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS."

000
WTNT42 KNHC 092032
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A DISTINCTIVE EYE AND IS
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 36
HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SSTS SLOWLY FALL. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT BERTHA COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

BERTHA HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION
ESTIMATE BUT THE 12 HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...305/10. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BERTHA MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS BERTHA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVE IT BEHIND IN
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4. A SECOND
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAY 5 COULD
RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD ACCELERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN GENERAL...TRACK MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 24.8N 58.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 25.6N 59.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 26.8N 60.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.1N 61.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 61.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
51. cyclonebuster
3:04 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
Doesn't she look like a Westward moving storm now. Hurricane center still saying NW????????????
All the troffs to her North are bypassing her. She will follow the Low centered midway between her and Florida for now and below the high to her North thus shunting her Westward. The troff on the East coast may lift out also and then we may have an Andrew storm all over again.

Link
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50. cyclonebuster
12:25 AM GMT on July 09, 2008
West she goes???
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49. cyclonebuster
10:00 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Is the stall coming? It slows down another two MPH.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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48. cyclonebuster
12:49 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Also,Now that Bertha is now a Cat.3 storm on the Saffir Simpson scale she is a major hurricane. A hurricane can not reach this status crossing the cooler waters that the tunnels provide while in cooling stage.If the storm is a cat.5 prior to crossing it will be a Cat. 2 at most when it is finished crossing. So it is a good thing we turned them on a day ago.
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47. cyclonebuster
12:13 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Hi windymiller. Seems like the GFS and BAMM think like I do on this. Although who would ever think that high pressure could build to the NW of the system this time of year thus slowing the storms forward progress down to 12 miles per hour now instead of the 20 mph it was traveling earlier today? Could it be the "Bermuda High" starting to establish its self? Would this not force Bertha off to West again? Anyways, this is just a simulation for the "Tunnels" if Bertha were to head this way. If Bertha doesn't come this way, all we have to do is switch the "Tunnels" back to non-cooling stage if the forecast is wrong. Of course all questions are welcome. Ask away???????

Link
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46. windymiller
3:37 PM GMT on July 07, 2008
So now that Bertha may be a threat to the US coastline

where on earth do you get this kind of wishcasting from?!!!! there is no model/forecaster that even hints of this.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
45. cyclonebuster
6:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Looks like 3 to 4 days of cooling would be sufficient. 5.4 degrees per/day sounds good.This means we must start cooling sooner.The storm is 7 to 10 days away still so I think we may still make it by the time the storm gets there. Computer modeling should tell us when to start cooling also. Right now I am shooting from the hip on this.
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43. cyclonebuster
6:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Ok at this time the TUNNELS have ramped down temperatures in the Loop Current and Gulfstrean down to 70 degrees sea surface temperature in preperation to Berthas arrival. I used the 1 degree every 3 hour ramp rate to be on the safe side all the way down to the 70 degree threshold.Bertha may be somewhere in the vacinity in 5-7 days. In five days the TUNNELS have cooled an area of ocean 40 miles wide by 600 miles long. In 7 days the area is 40 miles wide by 840 miles long. With both TUNNEL loctions in place a total area of cooling for the five day period is 40 miles wide by 1200 miles long and seven days of cooling gives us 40 miles wide by 1,680 miles long.

So now we have to sit back and wait and see what Bertha does with the computer models. What will the computer models tells us about what will happen to Bertha as she crosses the now lower SSTS?? How many differnet models are there that can do this??
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42. cyclonebuster
2:34 AM GMT on July 06, 2008
To be on the safe side I am going to start ramping down Loop current and Gulfstream temperatures for Bertha. What ramp rate would be safe for the sea life. Computer modeling should also give us this figure? 1 degree per hour? 1 degree every 2 hours? 1 degree every 3 hours?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
41. cyclonebuster
2:31 AM GMT on July 06, 2008
Bigger CDO now right over the center.

Link
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40. cyclonebuster
7:53 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Oh boy. Who's going to tell millions of people to move from the coastline? Talk about anarchy. That would be worse than if Andrew hit Miami.
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39. WxWyz
7:45 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Oh brother...How about instead of trying to control Mother Nature with gadgetry and far fetched sci-fi solutions we just stop overpopulating and overdeveloping coastal areas and learn how to better get the hell out of her way when she comes to town?! Because hurricanes are always going to come...at least until the world ends...which may be sooner than later.
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38. cyclonebuster
5:52 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
So now that Bertha may be a threat to the US coastline at what point do the computer models tell us to start the cooling phase of TUNNEL operation in preparation for Berthas arrival?
Typically such a rapid thermal change in SST could harm the sealife but the great thing about the tunnels now is we can REGULATE the temperatures downward over a period of 24 to 72 hours or longer in order to prevent this. What would be a good ramp rate? One degree every hour? One degree every 2 hours? One degree every 3 hours?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
37. cyclonebuster
5:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Watch out South Florida.
I'd be keeping a close eye on Bertha.

"A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE."


000
WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA
STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW
PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND
GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
36. cyclonebuster
3:51 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
That little feature can turn into something, also. A small but noticable vort exists to its South at 16N and 57W. Lets see how that pans out??? Speed it up and zoom in on the visible here and you can see the vort. in motion.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
35. cyclonebuster
3:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
By midnight tonight or sooner it will be a hurricane. Remeber Andrew moving at this speed?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
34. cyclonebuster
3:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Bertha has to slow down its forward motion in order to turn,correct? I don't see it happening do you?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
33. cyclonebuster
3:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Bertha is very close to a hurricane now.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
32. cyclonebuster
3:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Bertha now has a CDO over its vort. at 37.5W and 16.8N. How you like that vortfix?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151
31. cyclonebuster
2:48 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Bertha now has a CDO.

Link

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 137 Comments: 21151

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