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UPDATE Saturday re snow Mon Maryland

By: cws6196 , 1:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2014

I'm sure most of you are anxious to know about our snow chances, and actually, so am I! Tomorrow is when the fun begins. Our temps tomorrow will stay in the 30's, maybe edge toward 40 or so, but will drop as the day progresses. The details for this entire event are still a bit sketchy as the models are doing last minute adjustments, and right now are not agreeing with each other. To be expected. I have no doubt we will see snow, the question is how much. Timing and track of the Low are key. As the Low moves up the coast and spins counter clockwise, we will have periods of warmer air and rain later turning to all snow. But, as I previously posted, there are concerns with how much will accumulate. The first flakes will not stick, and the flakes that fall during the day on Monday will most likely not stick, leaving us with the flakes falling in the overnight hours as our accumulating snow. The forecast difficulty for me is to figure out how much that will be since the models don't account for all of this. Since the models don't take these realties into account, you can't simply look at the raw data and translate that into our snowfall accumulation. If the model shows 8 or more inches, that means the potential for that amount to fall exists, but does not take into account that not all that falls will stick and accumulate.

I say all this to help you understand why I am still not posting my accumulation numbers, even though other outlets are. I want to see what the data shows later today, and take into account the current weather and observations. I do have an idea of what I think will happen, but I want to have a bit more data to verify my instinct. I will post my accumulation thoughts later today.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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10:58 PM GMT on March 15, 2014
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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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