I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 2:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2012
Welcome to Autumn!! Autumn officially arrives at 10:49am, yet today will not feel like it. We have a southerly wind pushing in warmer temps, and actually, with the beginning of fall it will be warmer today than it has been the last couple days. But nonetheless, autumn is here!
A cold front is moving toward our area, and coupled with the warm humid air could help to create storms later today. Some of the storms could be severe, but not widespread. For an interesting look at the wind, check out this link showing the wind speed and direction in real time. As I write this you can see the massive amount of cold air coming into the mid section of the country while we have a good amount warm air moving up: http://hint.fm/wind/
LOCATIONS: Central MD and those east of I-95 could see the brunt of the storms, but Southern MD is not out of the mix.
TIMING: Most of the storms should happen after 5:00pm today.
THREATS: Damaging gusty winds, hail, slight chance for isolated tornado.
TROPICS: Nothing to effect MD.
SNOW: Yes, I did use the "S" word. As Autumn progresses I will talk more about our snow threat, but suffice it to say, we could see some of the white stuff this winter.
Follow me daily on Twitter for weather updates and weather tidbits: www.twitter.com/wxmanmd My Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804)
By: cws6196, 3:55 AM GMT on September 17, 2012
UPDATE Monday evening
I have been looking at the latest data for tomorrow and all seems to be on track based on what I posted yesterday. We could see local rain amounts 3 inches or more. Wind will be the greatest threat with the potential for tornadoes.
TIMING: Light rain will move into the area after midnight, ending Tuesday morning. After a period of some clearing, heavier rain will start after 10:00am. The severe weather should hold off until after 2:00pm.
Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone will be updated as needed. I will post updates as conditions warrant.
original post Sunday
I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend and the weather of the past couple days as all of that will change soon. The high pressure system is moving off the coast as a low pressure system moves in from SW. A cold front moving ahead of the low will combine with other features to bring us stormy weather on Tuesday. Monday evening into Wednesday morning will be wet and windy thanks to the interaction of the high and low systems. The high, sitting off the coast, spins clockwise, pushing up moisture and warm air from the south into MD while the low, spinning counterclockwise to our SW is doing the same, therefore we can expect a good deal of moisture. Also, the interaction of the different pressure systems will produce a pressure gradient helping to cause very strong winds to form.
TIMING: Too early to specify, but generally, the rains will begin late Monday afternoon lasting into the morning hours of Wednesday. There will be breaks in the rain.
THREATS: On Tuesday the main threat is gusty damaging winds with a possible isolated tornado. Some of the winds have the potential to be quite strong. Even with the potential for a large amount of rain, flash flooding should not be an issue.
TROPICS: There is an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico worth watching as the current model runs have the potential for the remnants to come over MD. Way too soon for any certainty, but wanted to let you know.
I will have another update later Monday evening regarding the storm potential for Tuesday. Follow me daily on Twitter for weather updates and tidbits (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd). My Weather Phone will be updated as needed: 443-470-9804
By: cws6196, 3:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
As I mentioned earlier, storms are probable later today as a cold front moves into the area. This is a strong front and will be interacting with the heat and humidity already in place. As the sun continues to warm the day, the storms will have more fuel.
TIMING: I think most of Central MD will start to see storms after 3:00pm, although rain could start a bit earlier. Those in Southern MD should be dry until closer to 5:00pm or so. The rain should last past midnight with severe potential waning after 7:00pm.
LOCATIONS: All of MD is in the impact zone, but those in Northern Baltimore Co, Harford and Cecil counties have a higher chance for more severe weather.
THREATS: The main threat is damaging wind and hail. Frequent lightning is also probable. There is a chance for tornadoes, more so along the MD/PA border, but can form anywhere in MD. When these storms start, please take them seriously.
TROPICS: No threats to MD.
Thus far there are no watches/warnings issued but I expect that to change. I will try to keep you updated, but localized warnings will most likely come quickly and frequently.
Follow me daily on Twitter, even if you don't have an account, for frequent storm updates and weather tidbits (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd). My Weather Phone is updated with watches/warnings. Feel free to leave a message regarding storm reports or questions: 443-470-9804.
By: cws6196, 3:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2012
He's here! As I previously mentioned, the remnants of Isaac are effecting us this weekend. I know it is a holiday weekend, but even tropical systems want to travel on the holiday. The current satellite imagery shows that the cloud cover over us today are the outflow from what was Isaac. Isaac's influence will increase through Monday. Another "complication" is a cold front dropping down from PA which will later stall in central VA. The stalled front will cause unsettled weather and a flow from the east. So, the easterly flow draws moisture from the Atlantic into the area, coupled with the moisture from Isaac moving in from the west. Yup, that equates to a good amount of moisture. We could see upwards of 2+ inches of rain by Monday evening.
TIMING: It is not easy to nail down the timing as the moisture is already here and continues to build. Rain will form as the moisture builds and saturates the atmosphere (column of air). But, we could see more prolonged rain Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Scattered rain is possible all other times.
THREATS: Heavy rainfall and local flooding is possible. Gusting winds are also possible.
TROPICS: No threats to MD on the horizon.
Follow me daily on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits. I will post another update as needed.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.