I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 3:24 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
I hate to say it, but Wednesday and early Thursday we will see more of the same - rain. What is happening is the area is wedged between a Bermuda High pressure (spinning clockwise) and Low pressure in the mid section of the country (spinning counterclockwise). The spinning of the pressure systems is bringing up moist southern air into the region.
Wednesday we could see some storms in the afternoon / evening as the moist humid air continues to be drawn up from the south, hitting an advancing cold front from the NW. This clash of air could lead to strong storms. The storms will be scattered, but those who experience them could see gusty wind and hail. A possible tornado cannot be ruled out.
I will continue to post daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and will update my Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:26 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
I just looked over the latest data from various sources, and it appears we should not be effected by the tropical disturbance currently off the FL coast. The Low which attracted attention last night appears that it will move away from the coast, not bringing us rain or wind. But, come Tuesday into Wednesday it may be close enough to draw in moist, humid tropical air into the region. That would mean clouds and high humidity. There are other dynamics which will bring us rain Tuesday into Wednesday, but that has nothing to do with the tropical Low.
Of course I will continue to keep an eye on this for any development, but I wouldn't change your plans. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd
By: cws6196, 3:05 AM GMT on September 25, 2011
Almost out of nowhere a tropical area of interest has formed off the coast of FL. The current computer models bring this Low into MD and up the Bay. If this is verified, that would mean heavy rain and possible strong winds in MD in a couple days.
I am NOT saying we will be hit by a hurricane, rather, the possibility of a tropical system effecting us.
I will have more details later Sunday morning and will keep you posted.
By: cws6196, 1:44 PM GMT on September 21, 2011
Yes, I am still around,even though you haven't heard from me in some time. The reason: dull, boring weather .... But, we now have a new tropical storm, rain in the forecast, and only a few days left until my favorite time of the year starts - Autumn!
First, the rain. We will see on and off rain showers today through the beginning of the weekend. Some showers could be heavy and there is a chance for scattered thunderstorms. The biggest threat these next few days will be flooding since the ground is still saturated.
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed in the Atlantic. At this time it appears she will not be an issue for us, following a similar path to the last couple systems, but she is still worth my keeping an eye on. The hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30, but as October starts our chances for a tropical interaction decrease.
Snow! No, not yet, but Winter is around the corner. The official NWS prediction for our area is for an average snowfall and average temps. Although, I have seen reports from other weather sources talking about a heavy snowfall potential for the area. But those who know me know that I am not a fan of long-term forecasts. As Fall progresses I will keep you posted.
Even with the dull weather follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd). I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as necessary.
By: cws6196, 2:50 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
I know we are all sick of the wet stuff coming from the sky, but more is on the way later today. Due to some upper level and mid-level dynamics in the atmosphere (if you want details email me) there is a potential for thunderstorms later this afternoon, most likely after 2:00 pm into the afternoon. These storms will be scattered, and those who experience them will see gusty winds, heavy rainfall and a slight chance for hail. If you are outside, keep an eye on the sky.
Concerning Tropical Storm Maria, I do not at all see her effecting Maryland nor the east coast of the US. Given the current forecasted steering winds as well as a forecasted trough (a "U" shape) moving into the area, both of which will push Maria out to sea.
The end of this coming week will be quite different from the beginning of the week. Not only will it be drier, it will be cooler, cold even. Temps look to be in the lower 70s for the daytime high and even 50s in the evening! But before you all complain, the dynamic bringing the cold weather is the same dynamic keeping Maria away.
On this somber anniversary, let us never forget: those who lost their lives, families still grieving, heroes of that day, those still sacrificing to keep us safe. Let us never forget to pray for peace and healing.
Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) is currently updated.
By: cws6196, 3:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
What a weather day this has been what with many reports of flooding and some evacuations, plus a confirmed tornado south of Leonardtown in Southern MD. As I write this there is another band of showers in the area with a few embedded strong thunderstorms. My rain gauge measured 5.98 inches of rain since Monday night. More to come.
The rain will stay with us through the weekend, although come late Thursday into Friday the rain will not be as widespread and primarily in the afternoon/evening hours. The same for the weekend with Sunday looking to be the driest.
In the tropics we now know what I have been saying, that Katia is not an issue for us. I am watching the newly formed Tropical Storm Maria as her path comes close to the east coast. At this time all the models show Maria staying off shore, but I will watch this one. Tropical Storm Nate is a non-issue for us so I wont be making mention of him.
The flash flood watches/warnings will probably stay in effect for Thursday. Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed. You can also leave me comments / questions on the Weather Phone.
By: cws6196, 3:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
We aren't over with the rain just yet. The remnants of Lee continue to move toward the area and with the counterclockwise spin of the Low is drawing in Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Wednesday has the potential to be rainiest thus far with the chance for another couple inches of rain to fall. Rain will continue in the forecast through the weekend.
Wednesday's dynamics include an approaching tropical system, a warm front moving in from the south, and the possibility for some clearing early in the afternoon. But don't get too excited as the clearing will lead to heating of the atmosphere and so lead to strong storm potential later in the afternoon. There is also a chance for a couple isolated tornadoes, so keep an eye on the sky.
Katia is not an issue for us, although she will aid in some of the rain development later in the week. Lee will stop effecting us as the weekend progresses. I am watching tropical depression (TD) 14 though as it's current path brings it to the SE coast of the US. If TD 14 effects our area it will be mid to end next week. I will keep an eye on this.
Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 12:57 AM GMT on September 05, 2011
Happy Labor Day weekend! Unfortunately, starting Monday the weather is going down hill.
As a cold front moves into the area storms will form ahead of the front. We could see rain early in the morning, but any storms should form after noon. Those who experience the storms could see gusty winds and hail.
Looks like Katia will not effect us, but things could change so I am keeping an eye on it. But, I really don't think she will be an issue.
The rain from Lee will begin to effect us later Monday through late Wednesday with heavy rain. We could see over 3 inches of rain from Lee. This is not good given the currently saturated ground. Flash flooding is possible.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxman) and I will update the Weather Phone as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
The holiday weekend is here! Today and tomorrow will again feel like summer with higher temps and high humidity returning. Currently a storm system just to the west of Baltimore is moving south toward DC. But most of us will have a dry weekend through most of Monday. There is a chance for scattered storms each day, but nothing major and most of us wont see any of these storms.
Katia - Still watching the path of Katia, but the guidance continues to show her come uncomfortably close to the coast without making landfall. This is still too far away for anything definite, but my confidence in this track is rising. I will continue to follow it.
Lee - This storm will effect us come Monday into Thursday as it tracks up the I-95 corridor as a tropical depression. Lee will drop a lot of rain in the area with some models showing up to 3 inches or more for us. The exact path is still not known, but either way we will see large amounts of rainfall later Monday through Thursday. "If" Katia were to influence our area it would be immediately after the rains from Lee. Not good timing.
I will post again later in the weekend. Enjoy the holiday weather and follow me on Twitter (@wxmand). I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:23 AM GMT on September 02, 2011
True to my word I am offering an update on the tropics, specifically Katia and Tropical Depression 13. As I have previously mentioned, I do not normally talk about the tropics unless there is a potential for the tropics to effect our area.
A few days ago I alerted you to the presence of Katia, and she is still out there. Do not let the slight decrease in her strength concern you as she is in open waters and will reform into a powerful hurricane in a couple days. The current models turn Katia's path quite near the mid-Atlantic, but it is a week or so away, therefore, I cannot provide any definitive forecast at this time. But, all trending shows her nudging the coast and not making landfall, although this is dependent, similar to Irene, on timing and the strength of a cold front exiting the US later next week. If the strength and timing of the cold front are perfect, Katia will be curved more out to sea. If not, she will come too close for comfort. BUT, this is too far off to get worried just yet.
Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Gulf, and the only reason I mention this is the models take the remnants of this tropical system and bring them up the I-95 corridor mid-next week. If this holds true we will be hit with a good amount of rainfall and possible flooding, with the possibility of Katia coming along the coast a couple days later. To be honest, TD 13 is also too far out to say too much with certainty, but it appears TD 13 won't effect our area, but is worth watching especially since the ground is saturated.
So, all in all I dont have much to say as these systems are too far out. But, I am watching their development along with the steering factors and will keep you posted. I will not post daily just yet, but if there are potential hits to Maryland I will let you know.
Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
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