I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 4:12 AM GMT on August 30, 2011
Ok, I really was not going to discuss this yet, but since many in the traditional and social media have already mentioned it today I now feel compelled (forced) to also mention it: the next tropical system. Currently Tropical Depression 12 is in the Atlantic, and yes, current model data places it along the East Coast as a hurricane.
It's not that I was keeping anything from you, but for two main reasons I was waiting to say anything: 1. those who know me know I do not like to forecast based on long-range model data; 2. I first saw this potential over the weekend when Irene was battering Maryland and I didn't think it wise nor prudent, at that time, to speculate on the next storm.
Timing of this hurricane, if it were to hit the East Coast, is estimated around Sept 10 or 11. Not good for many reasons. This is all I want to say right now since this possibility is quite some time away, but be assured I have been tracking this since the weekend and will continue to do so. I will not provide daily updates on this storm just yet, but if I get concerned you will be the first to know. Come this weekend, if the models continue to agree on a mid-Atlantic hit, I will then post more frequently.
For now, as much as possible, enjoy the good weather the rest of this week. No storms are in the near future, only some rain over the weekend, but not a wash-out. Continue to follow my daily tweets on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as necessary.
By: cws6196, 1:52 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
update Sunday 9:15am
I hope everyone is safe. We are still under a Tropical Storm Warning since the strong winds will continue through the afternoon. There is a rain band south of Baltimore moving north, but other than that the rain should be over for us. I recorded just under 4 inches of rainfall and winds in the upper 20s mph.
I will continue to monitor and have another update later in the day. The Weather Phone (443-470-9804) is updated and I will continue to post multiple Twitter updates (@wxmanmd). Feel free to leave me storm reports by email or on the Weather Phone voice mail. Stay safe.
I truly appreciate everyone's support of my posts and thank you for sharing that with me; and thank you for those who referred others to the list. I enjoy doing this and hope it not only educates but keeps people safe.
We are now entering the strongest phase of the storm as Irene's center crosses the Chesapeake Bay. Central MD is still under a Tropical Storm Warning and Flash Flood Warning. Southern MD is still under a Hurricane Warning and Flash Flood Warning.
Southern MD is still taking a large hit with multiple roads closed due to flooding and trees down. Rain has been measured at over 7 inches in spots with a few more inches to go. Winds are still high and gusting into the 60s mph. Luckily, with us on the west side of this storm the wind direction has kept down the storm surge, pushing out the water.
Central MD is now seeing an increase in winds and rain rate. Power outages are more widespread. Conditions will worsen until after 3:00 am when they should get better. Most of the rain will end Sunday morning but the winds will linger into the afternoon.
Irene is moving up the coast in a NNE direction and is now over water allowing for some strengthening. This current path will keep it's outer bands over the warm Atlantic, not good news for NJ and NYC.
I will post another update Sunday morning unless something changes, than I will let you know. Continue to follow my multiple tweets on Twitter (@wxmanmd). Please email me your storm reports and I will pass them along to the NWS. Stay safe.
This day has been rough on those in Southern MD and the Eastern Shore. In Southern MD they have had over 7 inches of rain, winds in the 30s mph and now over 25,000 people without power. Trees are down with reports of flooding.
Irene is currently 200 or so miles South of Baltimore moving NNE. Southern MD could see tropical storm force winds in an hour or so lasting through the overnight. Irene is still a category 1 hurricane currently over open, warm waters with little wind shear to break this storm apart. This is a major issue for those along the east coast. We remain on the weaker west side of the storm, which is a blessing, yet little consolation for many.
Central MD is not out of the woods as what you have been experiencing is only the beginning. I am hearing people saying this storm is a bust and resuming their lives. Do not fall for that trap! Central MD will begin to feel the full effects of Irene sometime around 10:00 pm and throughout the night into Sunday morning. As Irene approaches Ocean City around Midnight Central MD will see winds in the 30s and 40s mph gusting into the 60s with 4+ inches of rain on top of what we already have.
Come Sunday morning the rain will begin to diminish but the winds will continue into the afternoon.
Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) will be updated as needed. I will post another update later tonight.
The eye of Irene continue to moves NNE and is heading for Virginia Beach. According to the radar about 1.5 inches of rain has fallen in Southern MD and there are about 7,000 people without power there. There are reports of flooding and trees down in St. Mary's Co. Central MD is seeing light rain and some wind gusts, but nothing major at this time. It looks like tropical storm force winds (>39mph) are in Ocean City, MD.
As the day progresses conditions will get worse for all of us with heavier rains and at least tropical storm force winds. Remember that this storm is still far from us, so the full effects have not been felt yet. Those in Southern MD have a few hours before the full force hits, while Central MD will wait until the evening. Stay alert and prepared, this is only the beginning.
I am posting frequently on Twitter (@wxmanmd) or for those who don't want to sign up, go here: www.twitter.com/wxmanmd Please send me storm reports by email or a voice mail on my Weather Phone (443-470-9804).
For those in Southern MD local buoys are reporting wind gusts in the upper 20s mph with heavier rain bands coming in. Radar indicates about an inch of rain already fallen in areas, with the MD coast seeing about 3 inches already. Winds will stay from the east for now, gradually changing to the north. Later in the day you can expect winds in the 40s mph with higher gusts and rainfall 5 or more inches. Storm surge may be around 4 feet, but I am looking into new data and so will update as I learn more.
For those in Central MD, rain bands could be coming in a couple hours or so. I have already seen a couple isolated wind gusts, but nothing much yet. CAUTION - do not let the nice conditions currently in Central MD fool you that we are missing this storm. Irene is about 500 miles in circumference. We aren't missing her. Later in the evening we will see winds in the upper 30s mph with gusts in the 50s or more. We could have 3 or more inches of rain.
As Irene inches closer I would not be surprised to see Tornado Watches / Warnings issued as tornadoes are usually associated with hurricane bands. Thus far none of been issued.
I will have another update as I learn more data. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone (443-470-9804).
The day is here. Irene made landfall in NC around 7 this morning and is effecting MD already with rainfall in Southern MD and clouds in Central MD. The path and my forecast are holding true in that she will parallel the coast, keeping us on the west side of the storm. This will not run up the Bay, so we need to be thankful for small favors.
As the day progresses we can expect the situation to deteriorate as the rain bands and winds will get heavier. Those along the waters will experience the storm surge (4+ feet). Central MD will start to have rain after Noon. For all of us, the worst conditions will come overnight. Sunday afternoon we should all be done with Irene.
As to the exact direction and speed of Irene I need to watch the radar and satellite a bit and will let you know. This is what we call "nowcasting" where I dont watch the models, rather the on-the-ground data. But thus far nothing tells me my forecast needs to be modified, so my previous posts hold true.
I am tweeting (@wxmanmd) or www.twitter.com/wxmanmd and will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed. I will post more frequently here. Feel free to leave me storm reports by email or on the Weather Phone.
By: cws6196, 3:32 AM GMT on August 26, 2011
Not too much more for me to say that I haven't yet already said about Irene. The track is about the same and the trending is now more consistent that she will make landfall in NC and move along the coast into NYC. We are under a Tropical Storm Watch while Ocean City is under a Hurricane Watch. There is always a chance Irene will move further west or even run up the Bay, but given the High pressure in the Atlantic and the Low which brought our storms Thursday, it appears the current path will play out and Southern & Central MD will be on the weaker west side of the storm.
Rains in Southern MD could start later Friday, but most of us will see the intensity of Irene later Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
This is a large and powerful storm, so don't just watch the track as tropical storm force conditions exist almost 300 miles away from the center as the crow flies. Southern MD will have worse conditions than Central MD, but we all can expect flooding rains, maybe 8 inches or so, and damaging winds in the 40s mph gusting into the 60s and 70s mph. Keep in mind that these winds will be constant for almost 12 hours.
Please prepare yourselves for extended power outages and damage. Stay indoors this weekend and limit your travel to only emergencies until this system passes through. Keep in mind that any shift to the west increases the rain and winds greatly.
I will have another update either later Friday or Saturday morning, depending if there are significant changes to what I have been saying.
I will post more frequent updates come Saturday, and continue to use Twitter (@wxmanmd). The Weather Phone is updated as necessary.
By: cws6196, 4:54 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Where do I begin ... Let's start with the possible storms later today (Thursday). A cold front moves in later in the afternoon, sparking thunderstorms as it approaches. Some of these storms could be severe, with rain and wind the main threat. The cold front will progress to the SE and stall over Southern MD. The severe storms should be more likely around Baltimore City and north, although Southern MD could see storms into the evening hours since the front will be stalled there. Most storms should start after 2:00 pm, although, if the morning clouds linger longer, the severity of the storms will be diminished. I expect to see flash flood watches issued for the Baltimore area, but thus far none have been issued.
Ok, now on to Irene: I hate to say this, but the track continues to wobble and will do so until later Thursday or so when I should have a better idea of the exact track. This is a large storm and should continue to grow before it makes landfall in NC. As I have been saying, don't necessarily focus on the exact path, but know that the area will experience strong winds and heavy rain this weekend. The cold front moving through Thursday and stalling over Southern MD may have an effect on the path, but I stress "may". If the front is too weak, no effect, if it is strong enough than the issue will be position and timing. The front could either move Irene to the east, or could steer her north up the Bay. This is one of the reasons I am not yet sure on the path, but once I see what the front is doing, then we can better forecast.
Of note, we should remain on the west side of the storm, the weaker side with winds from the north and west, pushing water out of the Bay. But, tropical storm force winds are probable all the way to PA, meaning winds in the 40s mph for a prolonged time and rain amounts of 8+ inches.
Timing: it looks like rain could begin later Friday, but definitely Saturday with the heaviest rainfall Saturday night. Sunday, as the center passes the Bay and the winds shift, the rain may slacken, but the winds will pick up for most of the day Sunday.
Please prepare yourselves for a prolonged strong weather event which could cause power outages. Not to scare anyone, but being prepared is prudent, for any shift in the path to the west or north would change my current forecast for the worst.
I will have another update Thursday night, and come Saturday I will be glued to the radar, etc posting timely updates here and more frequently on Twitter (@wxmanmd). The Weather Phone (443-470-9804) is updated as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:41 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
What a day we have had, what with earthquakes and hurricanes to deal with.
Irene remains a threat to MD this weekend into Monday. She is strengthening and still looks to be a category 3 hurricane when it hits around the NC / VA border on Saturday. Most of the models take her along the coast, over Ocean City and onward toward NYC. When Irene impacts MD it could be a category 1 storm. As I have been saying, do not follow the exact path as this is a large storm and we will be affected no matter the path. Of course, the further east the storm goes the better for us, while the further west or north it goes the worse it will be for us.
The strongest part of the hurricane is the NE quadrant, while the "milder" side is the west. Given the current models, we will experience the calmer west side, although winds will be quite high and consistent for 12 hours or so. But, given the counter-clockwise circulation, Southern MD and Central MD would have north and west winds, pushing the bay water away from us. But if it goes west and up the Bay, then we will experience the NE quadrant. I dont see that happening though.
There is a slight chance, and one I dont think will happen, but she could be pushed out to sea by the cold front coming down this Thursday, but timing is everything. Just know that the next day or so the models will move all around before settling so dont get too excited just yet.
Bottom line, we will have lots of rain, flooding and strong winds over a prolonged period this Sunday, although rain could start to fall later Saturday. These conditions will be worse in Southern MD, but will be felt all the way into PA.
I will post another update later Wednesday evening. Follow my daily Twitter feed (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 4:02 AM GMT on August 23, 2011
Irene continues to strengthen rapidly and is turning into quite the hurricane. The current path has it making landfall in the US around the N & S Carolina border as a category 3 hurricane; quite powerful and destructive.
Regarding MD, of course the closer to the coast you are the more severe the impact, and if you are in Western MD, enjoy the scenery. Other than that most of MD will be impacted. But as this storm is many days out, impacting us late Saturday, mainly Sunday, there is some wiggle room. Models differ on the exact path, but don't watch the exact path as a storm this large would be hundreds of miles in diameter. As of now there is tropical force winds almost 200 miles away from the eye.
My best prediction at the moment would be for those west of the eastern shore and north of the Potomac all the way into southern PA to feel tropical force winds, that is, winds in the upper 30's mph with gusts much higher. Those winds are sustained winds over a 12 hour or so period. Rainfall will be heavy and flooding due to the rain and storm surge could be felt into Baltimore. But, any shift of the eye slightly to the west or east changes who feels what.
Bottom line at the moment: changes will occur in the path, but we will have strong winds and heavy rain. In the next couple days I will have a better idea of what we will be dealing with and so will continue to post daily.
Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed. If you have questions or concerns, feel free to email me or leave a voice message on the Weather Phone.
By: cws6196, 4:17 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Well, we made it through the storms Sunday, and the reward is 3 days of cool temps and low humidity. From now until late Wednesday the sun will be out and it will be pleasant. Enjoy! Come Thursday a cold front moves through, and depending on the time of day, we could have strong storms Thursday afternoon into the evening.
Concerning Irene: she continues to strengthen and could be a hurricane soon. The track is still unsure as to the exact path, its too early to say, but as I have been mentioning, no matter the track, we will have at least a heavy rain event with flooding potential. There are many factors effecting Irene's strength and path, but the current wisdom is a hit in SC and then move northward. That path would put MD directly in the path. The strength of the storm at that point is in question, but there is a chance it could maintain hurricane strength when it hits MD. As the week progresses I will give a more detailed update and rationale as to the path.
I do not at all want to scare anyone or cry wolf unnecessarily, but be aware there is potential for this storm to have a major impact on MD come this weekend. As to timing, look for Sunday into Monday, but if Irene picks up speed it could be Saturday.
I will post at least daily updates here, as well as updates on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:17 PM GMT on August 21, 2011
I apologize for the delay in posting this, but I was waiting for the 11:00 update from the National Hurricane Center.
Strong storms are possible later this afternoon into the evening. The high pressure has moved into the Atlantic, spinning clockwise drawing in warm moist air from the south, and a cold front is advancing into the area, also drawing in the moist air. Moist warm air coupled with cold (plus other factors) are the right ingredients for storms.
I see the bulk of the storms happening after 2:00 pm, although I am aware that eastern Baltimore Co and Harford Co already had some storms earlier this morning. The threat from these storms is gusty winds and hail, with the potential for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center gives our area a 5% chance for tornadoes and a 30% chance for wind and hail. Both Central and Southern MD are in line to experience these storms. Thus far no watches/warnings have been issued. I am also concerned about flash flooding and urban flooding from these storms.
The latest track from the NHC has Irene hitting Southern FL late Thursday / early Friday morning. Honestly, I see the track of Irene to curve more to the NNE and brush the eastern coast of FL, making landfall in the Carolinas. Most of the data models show Irene moving inland up the I-95 corridor. Yes, that would be us. It is too early for me to say for sure what impact she will have on us, but I have no doubt it will at least be a huge rain event with flooding.
Right now (and this could change) I don't see Irene as a hurricane when it hits us late next weekend as she has to make it over the Caribbean islands and Cuba, thus keeping her a tropical storm until she moves along the FL coast. Irene most likely will become a hurricane, but if she does travel inland along I-95, I don't see her strengthening, rather weakening. Now, could Irene maintain hurricane status while moving inland? Sure, as long as she were large enough to continue to pull in Atlantic moisture. If not, then she will weaken.
Bottom line with Irene: late next weekend for us will be interesting, with at least a major rain and flooding event.
I will keep you all updated by way of these posts and multiple daily updates on Twitter. If you don't have Twitter that's fine, go to this registration-free website: www.twitter.com/wxmanmd If you have twitter search for me @wxmanmd. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed. If you have any questions or concerns, email me or leave me a voice message on the Weather Phone.
By: cws6196, 1:03 AM GMT on August 21, 2011
Tropical Storm Irene has formed. I am keeping an eye on this as it has the potential to skirt to the NNE and either hit the Carolinas or go along the coast. If either solution happens it could impact MD with lots of rain. Or, Irene could hit Southern FL and move into the Gulf. For me it is too early for a forecast, but in a day or so I will give one.
Here is the link to the graphics: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1109_model.html#.TlBU2qyxw8A.mailto
So, I will keep an eye on this and will keep you all posted. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for multiple daily updates on local storms and Irene.
By: cws6196, 3:47 AM GMT on August 19, 2011
Thursday's storms in Central MD were stronger and more widespread than I had imagined. Thursday's humidity coupled with upper level disturbances produced some strong storm cells with reports of hail sent in to me. Those in Southern MD were not effected by these storms, but that could change Friday.
Friday will be a similar set up, and even though the day will start with clouds and possibly some rain, the rest of the day will be warm and humid enough to produce storms when the rising warm air interacts with the upper level disturbance. The storms may not be as widespread as on Thursday, but these storms should start later in the afternoon and contain hail, gusty winds and strong rain. Most of the remainder of the weekend should be fine, although each day there is a small chance for rain or a scattered storm cell.
As most of you know, I am not a fan of long range forecasting, but many forecasters are watching the potential for hurricane development which may impact the East Coast by the end of next week. I have held off mentioning anything sooner as I am not confident to forecast a storm's impact when the storm itself has not developed, but the model data has been quite consistent, so might be worth watching. I don't have any more details right now, but I will be keeping an eye on things and will keep you posted.
Follow my daily weather updates on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:38 AM GMT on August 15, 2011
The evening storms were quite the light show, and dumped more rain on the area. Most places received 2 - 3 inches of rain Sunday. The rain and storms will continue through Monday as the low moves away from the area. Monday's storms should not be as severe as they were Sunday, but always keep an eye on the sky when storms are around. Come Tuesday afternoon all the rain should be out of the area for a few days.
Another system moves in which could bring us rain and storms come Friday into the weekend, especially for those in Southern MD. But as that is many days away I wont say much more on that until later in the week. As always, follow me daily on twitter (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 2:04 PM GMT on August 14, 2011
Not much to update; my previous posts hold true. Rain and wind most of today with the threat for severe storms later.
The rain this morning will taper off and allow for some sunshine. This will serve to destabilize the atmosphere and allow for the development of strong storms later this afternoon into the evening. Timing is not easy to forecast as it depends on the position of the incoming low coupled with how destabilized the atmosphere becomes.
For those who do experience strong storms, wind and hail are the primary threat. Keep an eye on the sky.
I continue to post on twitter (@wxmanmd) and update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed. Feel free to email me storm reports / damage, or leave me a voice message on the Weather Phone.
By: cws6196, 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2011
First, the smoke you smell is from the Great Dismal Swamp fire which has been burning since Aug. 4 in VA. As the high pressure is moving away from the area the circulation is bringing up the southern air as well as the smoke from the fire. The smoke has been reported as far north as Harford Co.
Ok, regarding rain and storms. My post from yesterday still stands, but since the smoke and some clouds are in the area, this is inhibiting convection and so lessening the chance for severe storms. I see most of us receiving rain late afternoon into the evening, more so toward evening. Sunday will be a washout with scattered periods of calm. Severe weather is possible tomorrow, although a bit muted due to the cloud cover/smoke of today. As always though, keep your eye on the sky.
I continue to update Twitter multiple times daily (@wxmanmd). You don't have to sign up for twitter to see my posts; simply go to: www.twitter.com/wxmanmd I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 3:19 PM GMT on August 12, 2011
Today we have another nice weather day with sunshine, moderate temps and low humidity. That will change come this weekend.
Rain, and possibly lots of it. The storms that will be coming through could be slow movers providing the opportunity for a good soaking. Some estimates show us receiving up to 2 inches of rain. Some scattered severe storms are possible in this system.
For most of us, the rain should hold off until late Saturday into Sunday. Most of Sunday will be a wash out with possibly some brief breaks in the action. The rain will be with us into Monday morning.
Flash flooding and urban flooding are concerns as a lot of rain could fall rather quickly over mostly dry soil. For those experiencing strong storms, wind and hail will be the main threat.
Come Saturday the high pressure system moves east from our area, and as it rotates clockwise will draw up Atlantic moisture and warm southern air into the region. Saturday evening a cold front drops down, interacting with the warm moist air to create the chance for strong storms. Sunday we see a low pressure system move in from OH. As the low spins counterclockwise and interacts with the high spinning clockwise, more moisture and warm southern air are forced into the area, still with the cold front present. Since these systems are bringing in much moisture, the chance for large rain amounts is increased. The interaction between the low, high and cold front give the potential for strong storms with gusty wind and hail.
I will continue to provide daily twitter updates (@wxmanmd) and update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as is needed. I anticipate watches/warnings to be issued for Sunday. I will post another update later Saturday morning.
By: cws6196, 3:47 PM GMT on August 10, 2011
There is a new tropical area of interest forming off the African coast, Invest 92. Of course it is way too early to forecast any impact on MD, but the preliminary models bring it close to the mid-Atlantic, so I wanted to share this with you. There is the possibility for another area of interest to form in the Atlantic near the SE coast later this weekend or so.
I will keep you posted. By the way, the rest of this week will be cooler and less humid. Our next chance for rain could be late Saturday and Sunday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 3:17 PM GMT on August 09, 2011
As I mentioned last night, storms are possible later this afternoon into the early evening. Central MD has been receiving rain this morning, and that is beginning to taper off. A weak cold front is moving through the area later today, sparking possible storms. Honestly, I think most of the storm activity will be in PA and not MD, but given the movement of the Low away from the area and the introduction of the cold front, we still need to keep an eye on the sky. For those who do experience storms the main threat will be gusty winds and hail.
Wednesday has a similar set up with another cold front coming through in the evening triggering possible storms. The threat for storms Wednesday is more so for those north of Baltimore. But any storms will be scattered. The good news - following Wed into the weekend the temps will be cooler with less humidity. The next chance for rain will be late in the weekend.
For those in Southern MD and along the coast, be aware of abnormally high tides as a result of the southern wind flow, high pressure moving into the area, and the higher than normal astronomical tides. Also, for those in Southern MD and along the eastern shore of the Bay, due to a wild fire in VA, smoke could be present for the next couple days as the winds continue to be from the south, pulling up the smoke. A combination of smoke and heat does not make for good air quality, so be careful if you are working outside.
Follow my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) as needed.
By: cws6196, 2:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Much needed rain fell on most of us yesterday, and today there will be much of the same for us. This morning will remain cloudy and humid with a chance of rain and storms later in the afternoon. These storms will be scattered and not severe. After today the next shot at rain will be Wednesday.
Concerning Emily, she did regenerate as I forecast, but her current path (one which I agree with) takes her out to sea with no impact for the East Coast or MD. Looks like there could be another tropical area of interest forming next week. To reiterate, I do not typically talk about tropical systems in these posts unless there is a chance for them to impact MD. If any of you have an interest in a tropical disturbance of which I am not talking about, send me an email or leave me a voice mail on the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) and I will get back to you.
Continue to follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather topics of interest.
By: cws6196, 3:22 PM GMT on August 06, 2011
Clouds present today but it is still nice out, so get out and enjoy. There is a chance for storms later this afternoon and evening as low pressure moves into the area. The storms should start after 2:00 pm today and last into Sunday. Current radar has rain to the West of MD. Although I don't believe Sunday will be a washout. Those who experience storms should see heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Regarding Emily: a hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to fly the area later this afternoon, but currently the National Hurricane Center gives her remnants a 70% chance to regenerate (as I have been forecasting). As I write this the low is East of Miami and you can see the outer rain bands on the Miami radar. Will Emily effect us? Not sure until we know exactly where the center is located and in which direction she heads. The previous path is no longer valid, but we aren't starting from scratch. We know the prevailing winds and the fronts moving off the East Coast. Given those factors, I feel Emily will stay off the coast, with any effects being felt in Southern MD and along the coast. I will keep you posted.
For daily (multiple) updates follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed.
By: cws6196, 4:12 AM GMT on August 05, 2011
Emily is dead (and you read that without having to read this post backwards ...). Seriously, as Emily interacted with the terrain of Hispaniola she lost her circulation and whatever strength she had. This is exactly why I posted yesterday the message that I did. I figured this would happen, but I am also not convinced she is gone forever. I am still keeping an eye on this area since there is still a lot of storms, moisture, and a low pressure remnant moving over water warm enough to sustain a tropical system. I do believe Emily will return.
Model data demonstrates the potential for Emily to re-emerge as a tropical storm and potential hurricane. Will she interact with MD? Doubtful, but I am still concerned as the exact track will not be known until Emily re-appears, then we will see her intensity, size and location to the coast. So, still worth watching especially for those in Southern MD, not so much (or at all) for those in Central MD. I will have another update sometime Saturday which is when Emily should be re-forming (assuming she rises again).
This weekend we could see scattered storms Saturday late afternoon / evening, but no reason to change your plans.
No matter the weather conditions, follow me on Twitter for my daily posts (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 4:24 AM GMT on August 03, 2011
update Wednesday Midnight
Let me first say that as a result of the day-long cloud cover, most of us did not experience storms, only rain. I am sure most of you are not upset that you missed out on a tornado.
Concerning Emily - I want to wait another day before saying too much. The latest guidance has somewhat shifted the track to the west, and instead of reporting on every shift, and given the uncertainties of which I spoke in my last post, I want to see what happens to her after her trek over Hispaniola. Once Emily is back over water than let's see what happens.
But, I still believe in what I have been saying - she will not be an issue for those in Central MD, and those in Southern MD could experience tropical storm force winds and much needed rain sometime on Monday.
There is much happening and a lot to talk about. First, let's look at the weather Wednesday. For those who like the warmth and the sun, hope for the opposite today. Later today a low pressure system coupled with a cold front will be moving through the area. Simply put, the combination of these dynamics is enough to produce strong thunderstorms later in the afternoon. But, if we have lots of sun and a warm day, then those storms will only intensify. So if you we don't want strong storms, hope for clouds in the morning.
Storms that do form will do so after 1:00 pm or so and last into the evening hours, with those north, west and south of Baltimore most susceptible to storm formation. Given the dynamics, tornado formation is quite possible. Keep an eye on the sky and if you notice green clouds and/or rotating clouds with lowering bases coupled with hail (but not always), seek shelter immediately.
Now on to Emily: she is still a tropical storm with some strengthening. The latest track has her headed for the Carolinas (as I have been saying), but there still remains some uncertainty. I believe there will be more of a curve to the east with Northern VA and the Southern most tip of MD being clipped by Emily. If that happens, and she is a weak hurricane at the time, those 200 or so miles inland could still feel tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. A couple unknowns are still out there, and their outcomes will effect what Emily does. The first unknown (as of this writing) is her exact position and strength. Until another flight can be made, the exact position of the center of the storm is uncertain. The path of the storm is determined by knowing the location of the center. Therefore, the current projected path may be off. Another unknown is how well she will survive the track across Hispaniola. One of the factors needed to kill a tropical system is land, and Hispaniola not only has land, but quite high terrain. There is a slight possibility that she can be destroyed by the terrain. Although, more than likely she will be weakened, yet when over the warm water again will strengthen. But we just don't yet know.
1. Locally, today we can see strong storms with a good chance for embedded tornadoes
2. Emily will not hit MD directly, but many along the coast and inland will feel the effects of wind and rain
As needed I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated and will continue to post on my Twitter feed (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 4:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Well, the storms from Monday are over and I think most of us saw some action, either directly or by witnessing lightning in the distance. We all need more rain though. It appears that our next best shot for storms will be later Wednesday, but more on that later tonight.
As I first posted a number of days ago, a tropical storm has formed and could effect the East Coast. As of this posting, the predicted path of Emily and the winds extending from the center (based on the projected path), place her on a trajectory which could impact the East Coast. Keep in mind that the path is only a projection, and the center of the storm could shift anywhere within the cone. Also, the size of the storm will determine who is impacted, not only those experiencing the center of the storm. It is this latter point with which I am concerned. As of now I do not see Emily making landfall near Maryland, but I do see her skirting the coast. Depending on how close to the coast she gets, and how large she is, will make a difference as to who experiences this storm. I do feel quite confident, at this time, in stating that those north of Baltimore should not be impacted at all. Timing is very hard to predict, but as of now I am looking at mid-next week, "IF" Emily impacts us at all. Once she gets moving and passes the islands I will have a better sense as to what we are potentially dealing with. Until then, I will keep an eye on things and let you know my thoughts. But let me reiterate this - Maryland will not be hit by a hurricane; but some of us may get some much needed rain.
By: cws6196, 3:50 PM GMT on August 01, 2011
Summer temps continue for us, but not to the severity we have previously experienced. I am still watching the tropics, but thus far the area of interest has not been upgraded. I expect at least a tropical storm to develop soon, and the models show that system heading for the East Coast. Way too early to have any certainty of a path, but for now FL or the Carolinas look to be the main targets. Could we be impacted? Depends on the exact path, severity of the storm, and it's size. All factors which are unknown at this time.
Back to today, the heating of the day coupled with a weak cold front moving into the area later this afternoon could trigger storms. These storms will be widely scattered and not everyone will experience a storm. The Storm Prediction Center places us in a slight risk category for today. As to timing, look at the sky after 3:00 pm and into the evening. As these storms will move SSE, those in Southern MD may be missed, but if not, you should be storm free until later this evening. Those who do experience storms will have strong wind and the potential for hail.
I continue to post updates on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed.
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