WunderBlog Archive » Bryan Norcross' Official Blog

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Getting Ready to Get Ready

By: Bryan Norcross, 3:14 AM GMT on August 24, 2016

Have you noticed that weather reporting has become like political coverage? It’s the Trump model versus the Clinton model. And just like most political coverage these days, it misses the main point.

The bottom line: In South Florida it’s time to get ready to get ready. There is some reasonable chance that preparations will begin as early as Friday for a storm over the weekend. If a storm develops, the odds are it will head toward the Gulf.

So what’s a reasonable chance, and how strong will it be?

A reasonable chance just means that there’s enough of a risk that it’s time to imagine what you would do if the threat materializes. Think it through, get your supplies, and don’t be surprised if something develops.

To imagine how strong it might be we’re stuck with the models. The atmosphere appears marginally supportive for development between now and the weekend. But marginally supportive means it could go either way. If we see the system coming together Wednesday, the odds would seem to favor a stronger storm, including the possibility of a hurricane, near or over South Florida over the weekend. But if it can’t get organized fairly soon, it will have more trouble fighting off the dry air and somewhat less favorable upper-level winds ahead, and would likely be something between very little and a fairly weak storm when it comes by.

After that, the most likely scenario is a track toward the Gulf where the atmospheric pattern would seem to support a stronger storm. But since we don’t know how strong and organized it will be when it gets to the Gulf, the range of possibilities on where it might go and how strong it might be are as wide as Texas to Florida and quite weak to quite strong.

There is nothing for Gulf coast residents to do at this point but be aware. And, for now, ignore models that show any particular outcome. Nobody knows. The odds of just about any imaginable scenario around the Gulf Coast are about the same.

And, of course, there is some chance it will do something completely different.

An unfortunate artifact of modern television weather-graphics systems is that it’s just as easy for a weathercaster to show a model forecast for a week from now as it is to show a map of the weather at this minute. The problem is, we are pretty sure about the current weather, but the forecast graphic for a week from now is almost certainly wrong.

It’s inflammatory and misleading and upsetting to coastal residents, and I humbly propose that we quit it, especially in scenarios like this one that are wildly uncertain except for the broad strokes.

We can be reasonably certain that high pressure is going to build to the north and push the system west, and we have some confidence on the timing for South Florida, plus or minus a day or so. But that’s it. And we're not 100% about those.

The key question is, when do residents need to prepare and for what? If the academic question of whether the Euro or the GFS is better or worse gets in the way of a clear answer, weather reporters are doing a disservice to their readers and viewers.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I don't know about that. It seems our recent history is to under forcast any of the multiple record breaking weather events that have occurred in the last several years. Was the Louisianna flood under projected or over projected? Seems way under to me. How about the record breaking snow storm this past winter in NYC. Under or over projected? And I could go on and on and on.

So please give me a very big break and stop talking about calling wolf a few times to many when no wolf was at the door. In our present environment it appear many wolves are continually at our doors and mostly they are being called lambs or wolves without teeth at best.

This appears our new weather environment. If things are expected to go bad, they probably will.

So I say not. Call wolf a few times when there is not one and then perhaps I may agree. The inverse is the fact.
Show me wrong with this thing. Perhaps you may but I reasonably expect not. Show me.
Think about it. Where do the most amount of peoples get hurt or killed if these things are underprojected or overprotected? Of course accuracy is the best but that is not possible excepting very close to the event. Which in the fact of a necessary migration may be to late. So overprotected yes a minor disservice occurs and the forecaster has egg on their fact for a bit.

Underproject it and peoples may die. I think now of Matagorda Texas. There is a island where they, the local state park service, let you off by boat for a period of three days. You receive a ride out to the island and for all intents and purposes you are on your own. They show up to pick up in three days.
If there is even the slighest chance of something in the gulf, know what. I don't want to take that particular vacation to go fish there. Maybe things go well and they pick up early. Maybe the water becomes to rough fot the boat at all. You become a statistic.
One example that I personally know of, but they abound.
So I firmly disagree. Let the meterologists do as they see fit. Most have brains and know how to use them.

My advice since we are giving advice. Spend less time in the office and more in the real world. No offense but this logic is lacking.The last great overprojection I can think of regarding a hurricane was possibly by a very big stretch Hurricane Irene. I say stretch as many areas had devestation in the form of flooding in interior parts of the US as opposed to overt tidal surge or wind.
So name a few gross overprojections. I for the life of me can not think of any recent ones. Can you?
If you cannot then why this?
This is what needs to be heard. Have to focus on the "bottom line" of these situations. I too am sick of the computer model worshiping.
Thank you for taking the time to share with us, Bryan.

jo
5th!
bnorcross has created a new entry.