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Significant Changes Overnight to Isaac

By: Bryan Norcross , 5:04 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

Some significant changes overnight. As suspected... the center the NHC is tracking is farther south and the winds being measured by the Hurricane Hunters and NOAA researchers are increasing. The pressure is also dropping... all indications that Isaac is finally strengthening. The big data dump that the NHC ordered up for last night has refocused the computer forecast models, so at least for now the crap shoot is over. The best indications are that the strengthening storm will move over eastern Cuba tomorrow and be in the vicinity of the southern part of Florida or the Keys on Sunday. The circulation is quite large, so even if the center is near the Lower Keys, for example, the weather will be quite bad in Miami. The big question remains how bad is "quite bad", since we don't know how strong Isaac will be at that time. The NHC is forecasting a moderate tropical storm figuring that the land interaction will disrupt the circulation, at least some. It's a tough call. If the system organizes and strengthens significantly today, that forecast may have to be adjusted upward. The future track possibilities for the center are focused offshore of the west coast of Florida, with the storm strengthening and hitting the northern Gulf coast as a hurricane late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Any plausible track shows impacts in Ft. Myers and Tampa, but it's too early to know how severe they will be.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. tamipeach
10:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2012
Thanks for the update, it's nice to have you blogging for us!
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1. auburn (Mod)
5:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thank you for the update.
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