Severe storms, flooding, and a cold air plunge on tap starting Tuesday

By: Angela Fritz , 3:01 AM GMT on January 29, 2013

It may still be January but severe weather is on tap for the South, lower Midwest, and eventually the mid-Atlantic U.S. from late Monday night through Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is a risk of tornadoes in this storm system, the largest and most widespread threat will be from straight-line wind damage. Given the speed of the jet stream, which will be whipping far above the Earth at around 150 mph, the storms are going to be moving QUICK—some as fast as 70mph.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather, meaning there will be substantial area of severe storms, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. In this particular case, it also means we're expecting intense lines of thunderstorms with widespread damaging winds.

Track the storm on WunderMap

The U.S. convective outlook for Tuesday afternoon and night. This outlook was issued on Monday, January 28th.

Dallas, TX – Thunderstorms mid to late-morning on Tuesday, continuing through the evening, clearing out in the overnight.
St. Louis, MO – Thunderstorms mid to late-morning on Tuesday, continuing through the evening, clearing out in the overnight.
Little Rock, AR – Thunderstorms will begin late morning on Tuesday, continuing through the evening, and clearing out by Wednesday morning.
Memphis, TN – Thunderstorms will begin Tuesday, late afternoon, and will continue through the overnight hours, clearing out by mid-morning on Wednesday.
Atlanta, GA – Showers and thunderstorms could begin early Wednesday morning lasting through Wednesday evening.
Baltimore, MD – Showers and thunderstorms will begin late afternoon on Wednesday and continue through much of the overnight, clearing out by Thursday morning.

Flood Threat

Strong, southerly winds ahead of the cold front will also bring unusually moist air well north of the Ohio River. For some areas it will be among the most humid January air masses in recent history, and the resulting heavy rainfall threat over frozen ground has prompted the National Weather Service to issue flood watches for Indiana and parts of nearby states.

3-day precipitation forecast ending Thursday evening from the HPC.

Cold Air Surge

This storm's cold front will also bring with it some chilly air. Many locations will see 25-30 degree temperature swings. Highs on Wednesday won't get above 0°F in Montana and North dakota. Sub-freezing air will dip as far south as Missouri. On Thursday the cold air pushes east with highs only reaching the 'teens and twenties in the Great Lakes states. On Friday the Northeast will see highs in the mid-thirties.

Watch the cold air surge south on WunderMap


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6. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:11 AM GMT on January 31, 2013
angelafritz has created a new entry.
5. StormHype
7:09 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Live mobile chase video in St Louis is up for duration. ETA of squall line is 6-7pm CST.
St Louis metro - Live mobile video
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1330
4. photohobby216
1:00 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Great blog - I love the maps, and the helpful links!
Member Since: February 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3. Parshall
11:56 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Angela, I really appreciated your links, especially to the 'cold air surge ' temperature station map. I wish all of you would do this more often. I like to look at the models too but they're hard to use without a good knowledge of weather.
But I think you could gradually incorporate them in your blogs.
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
2. ngtybtnice
9:22 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Glad to see the radar is up and running again.
Those of us who live in Florida really depend on that. That you also to WeatherUnderground for all your hard work.
1. auburn (Mod)
3:13 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Thanks..great Info!(not all of us get weather..we need it simple)
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 552 Comments: 52072

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About angelafritz

Atmospheric Scientist here at Weather Underground, with serious nerd love for tropical cyclones and climate change. Twitter: @WunderAngela

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