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January Deficit

By: WatchinTheSky , 12:13 AM GMT on January 27, 2013

Jan 26 late afternoon,

We are just about done with the cutoff system that was off San Diego coast and has now moved to Arizona and points east. Generally, we get storms moving down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska this time of year - and there is one on the way, though it is not bringing much moisture. Anyone expecting to watch Tiger at Torrey Pines today (Saturday) - fog delay all day!

January in Escondido should bring about 3.4". The current system has left 1.02", we got about .5" earlier this month.

Jan deficit is about 1.9" or you could say we are only 44% of normal - which sounds more dire. Since we don't get much rain compared to a lot of places, the percent of deficit can change rapidly with a little rain. Remains to be seen if it will change this year.

Our average yearly rain total is 15.5". the season so far is 5.2", about 33% of yearly and 8.42" is average so we are 61% of season to date average.

The trend is moving the wrong direction!

Rain deficit
Jan so far -1.9" 44% of ave
Season -3.2 61% of ave

Jan 28, No more rain this month
Final deficit -1.72" 50% of ave
Season -3.06" 63% of ave

Monthly numbers improved more than 5% on just .16" additional rain.

Only helped the season by 2%

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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11. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:52 PM GMT on February 08, 2013
WatchinTheSky has created a new entry.
10. calpoppy
9:05 PM GMT on February 03, 2013
I got rain last night :))
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. BriarCraft
12:09 AM GMT on February 02, 2013
1.5 inches of rain happened here Jan. 28-30, but that still leaves us with only 3.65 inches for the month, of 46% of the normal 8.0 inches.

February is starting out dry here, too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. WatchinTheSky
4:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2013
Hi sp, Cracking me up too, thanks :)
I remember Miracle March - that was awesome, let the chanting begin!
I agree, if it is not going to rain, it should be sunny and warm. Extended gray or cloudy with no rain is not my thing/bag/cup 'o tea. Looks like a nice weekend coming, Ive got plans for the backyard weeds!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. sp34n119w
8:17 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Guess we're all in the same boat! Which will soon be aground if we don't get some rain (haha - I crack me up).
I think our seasonal average is just under 15" and we're currently around 6". Perhaps we should start our hopeful "March Miracle" chants now.
Well, February can be pretty wet, and the pattern doesn't look too awful, so don't give up, yet. I plan to enjoy the pleasant weather since there isn't much other choice ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. WatchinTheSky
5:19 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
Hi cp! Snow - fun! We were supposed to get a little rain rain Sunday eve from the northern system but it did not get this far south. There was a little lowland frost this morning, a shock from the mid upper 50s overnight of the last 4 days.

BC - It's a mystery! While searching for the 'lost' rain, I found some unpleasant predictions from Intellicast (the authority in expert weather - if they do say so themselves).
Yellow= below ave green=above brown=ave
images are 10 day, 30 day, 90 day future models

I'll hope they are confused :)
By 90 days our season is over.

SBK - .89 sounds about right! Sunny for the rest of the week, looks like, and warmer. Clouds are lifting over Palomar - I can see a dusting of snow there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. calpoppy
2:25 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
Even though it rained all day on Thursday we didn't get much. But I won't be able to be real accurate on the measurement. Our rain gauge was acting funny, it would be .0 for a long time then jump to .03. Mr. P checked it and found a feather in the rain gauge. Last year a bird tried to make a nest in it.

W ehad a wonderful but brief snow shower last evening, nice to wake up with some white out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. BriarCraft
1:36 AM GMT on January 28, 2013
Our average rainfall for the month of January is 8.0 inches. So far, we've had just 2.14, 26.75% of normal.

So, if you didn't get it. And Washington didn't get it. And neither did Oregon. Who did? That water went somewhere. Just wondering.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. SBKaren
9:08 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was me misreading the data. Sometimes it's so confusing.

We had a good downpour this morning and are now up to Precipitation: 0.89in

I don't think we got that much, I think my weather stations flip-flopped on me. If you put in Seal Beach, here or on other weather sites, you'll often actually get Los Alamitos. LA is about 5 miles inland and can have completely different weather than us!

The Seal Beach weather station that is 1/4 mile from the beach is my brother's, who lives just around the corner from me.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. WatchinTheSky
6:29 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Hi Karen - January has been a bit unusual, the rain tends to come from the north west and we get less than points north often. I checked a couple web sites for Seal Beach rainfall - the ones I found said 2-3" is average for Jan (not sure if I am seeing a typo in your number).
We had no sun yesterday, if fact, foggy/drizzly all day. Same so far today - up to 11 AM, .16" precip.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. SBKaren
12:48 AM GMT on January 27, 2013
I checked our January averages and we have received .65" so far this month. If I'm reading the data right, .03 is average for us, so we are over. Of course I'm not taking into consideration anything else!

It's been a pretty good off and on again storm since Thursday. We actually did see some sun today - twice, but both times clouds moved back in. When we look outside now we see fog!!!

More tomorrow they say!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Observations and occasional comments about San Diego county weather - nature - and the world around us.

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