Not There Yet.......

By: WCSC , 1:15 PM GMT on June 27, 2006

UPDATE: 2:30pm:

LATEST FROM THE NHC in a SPECIAL STATEMENT at 228pm edt:

"RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


Previous Post:

Well, what a difference a few hours makes. Our area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast this morning is not far away from becoming a Tropical Depression. Here is a Special Statement from the National Hurricane Center:

"SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT"


A look at SuperDoppler 5000 shows that the majority of the rain is now to our east over the Atlantic. A few areas of rain still linger across our northern counties along the Grand Strand. Most of the rain from this system is now over for us as the system is further east than we expected this morning.

SuperDOPPLER 5000

With the center of the developing circulation to our east, it will put the Lowcountry on the "dry" side of the storm. Most early season storms are lopsided as is, with the majority of the wet and windy weather on the eastern side of the circulation. We also typically see subsidence, or sinking air aloft to the west of a tropical cyclone. This in essence, is high pressure, and inhibits showers and storms from developing. We still have a good bit of tropical moisture in place across the area, so as the afternoon seabreeze swings into action, a few storms along the coastal counties cant be ruled out.

The bottom line is that if a depression or weak tropcal storm does develop, it will not pose a threat to our stretch if the coast. It will have a very short time left over water before making landfall on the North Carolina coast. It will bring anywhere from 4-6 inches of additional rain to eatern North Carolina and spread moisutre northward across and already flood drenched New England states.


Visible Floater- NOAA SSD


Visible Floater- NASA GHCC


IR Enhanced - NOAA SSD


Water Vapor - NOAA SSD

More to come...

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

3. theCTgrower
6:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
ah yes - the super doppler 5000. used to live in west ashley right down the road from that puppy. i do miss chuck town... how the hell did i end up in CT?
2. tropicalstorm006
4:52 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
will it be at least a TD today? andI'm in Fayetteville, NC can I expect to see any rain from this cuz we're still under the flood watches even though it's partly cloudy and sunny. If it does become a TD what path will it take?
1. fredwx
4:45 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
The satellite photos look like a TD but the surface observations do not yet indicate a circulation and the pressures remain fairly high.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261

Viewing: 3 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

WCSC Hurricane Center

WCSC doesn't have a bio yet.

Recent Posts

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
75 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Recommended Links