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By: WCSC , 8:39 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
As we head into the evening hours on Monday, a lot of moisture is on the way into the region as the Atlantic and Gulf moisture streams in around the low we have been watching across Florida. Already we are seeing a lot of shower and storm activity for the Lowcountry. Here is a current look at the radar:
As we head into the overnight hours, look for a good bit of tropical moisture continuing to work its way into the area. This will keep the showers and storms kicking for much of the night. There has been some grumblings in the forecast models this afternoon as to what exactly will happen with the Florida low. The latest runs of the GFDL bring it to Tropical Storm strength just off the South Carolina coast on Tuesday. While I don't think that will happen, we will still see a slight chance this thing makes it to a Tropical Depression. With warm water from the Gulf Stream and fairly weak shear overhead, the only thing keeping it from getting going is lack of initial organization. There has been some evidence this afternoon in the visible pictures that the LLC (low level center) is trying to become better developed. If enough rain and storms can fill in and wrap around the center, we may have something to play with. Over all the model guidance package has shifted well to the right in response to a digging upper trough across the Dixie States.
This will put us on the western side of the low if this path verifies. That means the heaviest rain and strongest storms would be to the north and east from the Grand Strand to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. With the models just recently making the jog to the east, we will hold off for another run or two before we adjust things too much. It all depends on what happens in the next twelve hours or so....time will tell.
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More to come...
Live 5 Meteorologist
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