VaStormGuy's Blog

The Pattern is-a-Changing!

By: VaStormGuy, 9:21 PM GMT on December 12, 2012

There has been mention of a storm possible on the 19th or 20th next week, but I'm becoming skeptical that it'll be anything other than windy rain. However, the bigger picture is much more promising. Even if the storm fails to be a large snow producer in the middle of next week, the pattern will likely shift afterwards to one favoring more opportunities for snow to fall in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Here's the GFS ensemble mean for Christmas Eve, showing a -EPO, a (finally)+PNA, and the thing we all talk about for coastal storms, a west-based -NAO. We may even get the split flow of the jet which may assist in phasing. I would be shocked/surprised/sad if we didn't see a large snowstorm by the start of 2013, because conditions haven't been this favorable for some sort of a large snow event in a long time.

GFS Ensemble Mean, Hr.276

Even the Euro shows a similar solution to the GFS with a trough in the East and a ridge in the West.

ECMWF Ensemble Mean, Hr.240

There isn't really a storm of particular interest yet, maybe there could be one on Christmas Eve, but the pattern is there for something we all probably want. A "Big Daddy!"


Winter Weather Blizzard Nor'Easter


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