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Tropical Depression Two-E develops : A flood threat to Central America

By: TylerStanfield , 10:23 PM GMT on June 02, 2014

Tropical Depression Two-E was classified in the Eastern Pacific waters this afternoon. The season's second tropical cyclone comes 23 days earlier than the climatological June 25th date, which is when the second tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific usually forms.

Figure 1. The RGB visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two-E located in the far eastern Pacific.

Tropical Depression Two-E Analysis
Tropical Depression Two-E has gradually organized over the past 24 hours, with a strong burst of convection occurring across the southern and eastern quadrants of the storm within the last couple of hours. The large gyre of the storm is still keep the circulation broad and slightly elongated southwest to northeast, depicted on visible satellite, and is convectively weighted to it's southeast currently. This shows that the storm is still organizing, and will need another good day or so to completely organize.
Two-E is currently facing relatively light shear of 10 knots, and is being ventilated by an anticyclone directly over the low. Along with light shear, the tropical depression is over very warm waters of 30C, much higher than the 26C needed to support a tropical cyclone. Though conditions are favorable for further intensification the large, monsoonal nature of Two-E is what has been it's biggest impediment in development thus far, which should keep the storm in check and not allow for rapid intensification of the system. This said, the storm will still have a good three to four days over water to get it's act together further and strengthen before an eventual landfall between Salina Cruz and Tonala, Mexico.

Figure 2. A map of the watches and warnings currently issued by the National Hurricane Center

Impacts of Tropical Depression Two-E
Two-E is currently moving at a very slow pace of 3 miles per hour in the direction of North-northwest. With the storm moving so slow, this system could be a major flood concern for Central America as torrential rainfall could result in deadly mudslides and flash flooding. The slow pace of the storm not only raises flooding concerns, but though the storm is relatively close to land, it will have plenty of time to intensify before finally making landfall.

Figure 3. My forecasted track and intensity for Tropical Depression Two-E

My Forecast
My forecast track is slightly east of the NHC's forecast track and I also have Two-E inland one day earlier than the NHC due to an idea that land friction may affect the storm track as it makes it's approach resulting in the storm coming onshore quicker. My intensity forecast is more aggressive than that of the NHC, bringing the storm up to 65 Mph before making landfall. This is due to my thoughts on the very favorable conditions at play, and the rate at which organization is occurring with the storm currently.

Figure 4. A map of the possible timeline of events leading to the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin over the next week.

What's next?
Once Tropical Depression Two-E moves ashore later this week, the next question is "where does that energy go?"
According to the GFS model, it appears the energy from Two-E could help in supporting the development of another tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. Though the possibility of a storm developing from this system in the Eastern Pacific is more than five days out, this area will need to be monitored as it gets closer in the timeline.

Thanks for reading! Comments and questions are encouraged!
I will have another update later in the week.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:00 AM GMT on July 22, 2014
TylerStanfield has created a new entry.
1. AtHomeInTX
11:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Thanks Tyler.
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Meteorology student at the University of Oklahoma. Tyler Stanfield is pursuing a career in Tropical Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.

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