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Tropical Depression One-E forms, no threat to Mexico

By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 8:25 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

Nature is jumping the gun a little early this year, as the first cyclone of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Depression One-E, has developed a day before the official start of the season. This development is from an area of disturbed weather, previously dubbed Invest 90E, that formed about 550 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico two days ago. An OceanSat pass from last night revealed a well-defined center and maximum sustained winds of 25-30 mph, but convection was ill-defined and relatively shallow at the time. Visible satellite imagery from this morning combined with Satellite estimates, however, revealed that convection was deep enough and sufficiently defined to renumber Invest 90E to Tropical Depression One-E.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite imagery of Tropical Depression One-E.

The forecast for 01-E
Tropical Depression One-E lies atop warm Sea Surface Temperatures in excess of 29 °C and light wind shear between 10-15 knots, both of which are conducive for further intensification. These thermodynamics should remain at least marginally favorable over the next 24-36 hours which may allow the depression to briefly attain tropical storm status. If that were to occur, it would be given the name "Aletta". After that, a steep increase in wind shear is forecast by the global models as a strong upper-level trough passes near the system. This should lead to dissipation by 84-96 hours out as the depression moves west into increasingly cool waters around the southeastern side of a well-defined ridge of high pressure. This ridge should act to keep 01-E a far distance from the Mexico coastline.

TropicalAnalystwx13


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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6. GeorgiaStormz
11:30 AM GMT on May 15, 2012
HAHA it is aletta now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. Grothar
9:48 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
A good one, C! I should be back in a few week, but I will try and drop in for a while. Notice I did my blog and hour before the Doc and it is almost the same????
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4. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:09 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not exactly a thrilling storm but still good to see the tropics coming alive again... Thanks TA 13

No problem, thanks for stopping by.
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1. MAweatherboy1
8:38 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Not exactly a thrilling storm but still good to see the tropics coming alive again... Thanks TA 13
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About TropicalAnalystwx13

Small town USA guy. Politics nerd. Soccer fan. Interested in eyewalls, deformation zones, and hook echos.

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