I have been fascinated by severe and tropical weather since the 2004 season. What a season that was!! Also a wave swell freak!
By: Thrawst, 8:57 PM GMT on August 23, 2011
Alright... currently winds are currently out of the E at around 15-20 mph. By tomorrow morning, we should be seeing some tropical storm force wind gusts.. and hurricane force gusts by midnight Thursday.
By: Thrawst, 3:08 AM GMT on August 22, 2011
Guys guys guys... I is be under a Hurricane Watch now... that is all.
By: Thrawst, 2:16 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily
Currently, Tropical Storm Emily packs sustained winds of 50 mph, and a pressure of 1004 mb. While earlier today Emily had an exposed low level center, during the past few hours it seems as if thunderstorms are reforming over it.
The west northwesterly shear that caused most of the problems for Emily this morning seems to have temporarily lessened, and may stay lower than what it was this morning for the rest of it's life. It seems like the two main factors that will limit intensification over the next 48 hours will be the disruptive mountains over the island of Hispaniola, and the still significant amount of dry air to the northwest. However, as explained below, the mountains could not be as significant to weakening as many people think.
With the exposed low level center observed earlier today, it was impossible for the system to intensify and get deeper into the atmosphere. As a result, the center of Emily wasn't being able to be tugged northwest by the digging trough on the eastern coast of the United States, and thus, stayed further west. As of 8pm EDT, the center was stationary, meaning a possible reformation is occurring and intensification may occur before moving inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Here's the thing... where will Emily make landfall over the island of Hispaniola? With the continued westward movement for most of the day today, it should avoid the Dominican Republic and curve WNW to NW to hit the tongue of land in Haiti, close to Port Au Prince. Once hitting land, no doubt this system should weaken, perhaps into a tropical depression if it hits the mountains near Port Au Prince. After crossing Haiti, it emerges back over the warm waters near the Turks and Caicos of the Bahamas. Waters are very warm and extend to some depth, aiding in plenty of fuel for thunderstorm redevelopment. The center may have problems reorganizing after the hit in Haiti, but the fact that it should spend less than 12-18 hours over land, shouldn't totally damage the circulation. Also, weaker system tend to survive better over land than most intense hurricanes. Once reaching the warm waters, and lower wind sheared region of the Bahamas, strengthening should resume, possibly steady. One negative factor, as explained yesterday, is the confluent (or very dry) region of the Deep Layer Ridge centered over the Southeast United States, will be centered over eastern Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas. This may tend to limit how many thunderstorms develop in relation to Emily, but since Emily is relatively large, it MAY be able to offset this factor with warm waters and low wind shear. Later in the forecast period, as the NHC is forecasting, the environment should steadily improve and Emily could become a hurricane by as early as it leaves the Bahamas. There is a possibility that the center of Emily will move further west than forecast, and possibly threaten the southeastern Florida area. Anyways, this forecast is still listed as questionable because the center has yet to make landfall over Hispaniola.
In other tropical news, Hurricane Eugene has strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 140 mph... but expect this system to start steadily weakening by tonight.
The GFS Model is predicting Cape-Verde type development in their latest run, and brings it across the Atlantic near the Bahamas almost 10 days later. This probably won't happen, but it signals the beginning of the Cape Verde season right around the corner.
Have a safe evening! :)
Updated: 2:20 AM GMT on August 04, 2011
By: Thrawst, 6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily
Tropical Storm Emily, which formed at 7:30 pm EDT last night, although currently in a state of disorganization, is gradually increasing its winds. According to SMFR measurements from Hurricane Hunter Aircraft (RECON), a surface wind measurement recorded an unflagged, not rain-contaminated wind speed of 54 mph. Although this is probably not indicative of the entire system as a whole, it DOES show that there are some increasingly higher sustained winds in the convective ball that the center is currently under. The center itself is still not that well-organized, and I suspect that another 3-9 hours of continuous convective development may help to organize the center. Based on all of this new information, I suspect it is now a 45-50 mph Tropical Storm, with organization continuing. Currently, outflow is well established, due to a decent upper level anticyclone over the system. This anticyclone should stay overhead Emily as long as enough heat can be released. There are shear axis' just to the south and north of the system, and with the system continuing WNW for the next 36-72 hours, it is expected that these shear areas will not severely disrupt Emily. One thing that will disrupt Emily most of its life, will be dry, sinking air, due to the confluent region of the deep layer ridge to the northwest of the system. All in all, I specify my forecast in the latter periods below.
With a general WNW path to continue for at least the next 48-72 hours, I suspect it will hit the border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This land interaction and the high mountains over Hispaniola, I believe this storm may weaken to a tropical depression... for the first time in its life. While now some of the global models forecast a dissipation of Emily after crossing Hispaniola, I believe with the current amount of organization, and continued organization in the next 24-36 hours, will currently disregard these models. After crossing the island, I am going to be aggressive, as I always am, and predict it to steadily re-organize due to better conditions over the Bahamas and north of Cuba. By the time it reaches the northwestern Bahamas, I believe it could be back to a moderate-strong Tropical storm, and it has the chance to become a hurricane once it hits the Gulf Stream between the Bahamas and south Florida. The track can certainly change, and I may be COMPLETELY wrong with these forecasts... but this is how I see the conditions will be once it passes Hispaniola.
Regardless, this storm will bring torrential rains to Haiti and the DR. While Emily MAY dissipate after the crossing of Hispaniola, never rule the chance of regeneration.
I'll have another update tonight or tomorrow!
Updated: 6:18 PM GMT on August 02, 2011