I'm a high school student. While I follow all modes of weather, I am most intrigued by severe/tornadic storms.
By: TheOnlyBravesFan, 10:11 PM GMT on March 12, 2012
By: TheOnlyBravesFan, 5:48 PM GMT on March 12, 2012
There is a slight chance of sever weather today over Southern Michigan and northwestern Alabama. The risk over Michigan is much greater though. This is the latest update from the SPC.
Along with the discussion.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FOR NE IL...SE WI...NRN INDIANA...AND SRN LOWER MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A
SMALL PART OF NRN MS AND WRN TN...
...SRN LAKE MI/LOWER MI AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT NEWD WHILE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL JET CORE WILL TRAVERSE NRN IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER MI THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT. IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD FROM IL/INDIANA INTO SRN LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 60S AS FAR N AS SRN LOWER MI. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/NRN IL AND INDIANA INTO SRN LOWER MI.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD
FROM WI TO UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
SERN EXTENT OF THIS ASCENT WILL BRUSH THE NW EDGE OF THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN IL SINCE 15Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME FORM OF THIS IL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO EXTREME SE WI/SRN LAKE MI...AND EWD TOWARD
SRN LOWER MI. THE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 150-250 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 03Z.
...MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND MID SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK-MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS PROGRESSING EWD OVER SE OK...AND WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT. FARTHER S...A WEAK SPEED MAX IS ALSO
MOVING OVER SRN LA.
A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR LFT IS BEING MAINTAINED BY THE
WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOVE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TRAILING WWD FROM THE WEAKENING STORMS OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE. A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
CONVECTION...CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. FARTHER N...THE PATTERN IS MUDDLED BY OUTFLOW
FROM THE ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY A
DIFFUSE CONFLUENCE ZONE TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN. MLCAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...SUPPORTING SOME
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA TO COVER THESE THREATS...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS FOR SLIGHT RISK.
What's going on right now
There are some strong storms capable of producing waterspouts and strong winds over Lake Michigan right now headed toward the state of Michigan. I expect them to land within the next hour or so and
I will try to keep up to date with these storms either on here or on Dr. Jeff Masters blog. I should have a new blog by Wednesday or Thursday, where I will hash out ideas of a weather site for me to get some exp. :D
By: TheOnlyBravesFan, 2:07 PM GMT on March 08, 2012
It's been a quiet week for severe storms, but then again, that is a good thing. However, we have a slight risk of severe weather over Eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, and Western Mississippi.
It doesn't seem to me to be a huge nuisance though, just a very slight tornado risk, and a slight hail/wind threat. Anyways, hope all keep safe out there, and I'll be back with a (better) blog in a few days.
By: TheOnlyBravesFan, 3:44 PM GMT on March 04, 2012
Storms have hit the southeastern US again. The pictures I've seen are horrible. Even near me, a tornado missed me by about a mile or so. The damage is bad. I feel bad for all these people and what they are going through. Even as a kid, I know the loss they're going through right now. I really don't like it. Even all these advances in technology with meteorology forecasting can't save all these people. Anyway, at least it did save just 1 life. That's a victory. I can't wait for the day, however, that no one dies in severe storms. I hope to see that day someday soon.
Anyway guys, I'm a high school student, hoping to be a meteorology student. This will be my weather blog, and I will try to keep it updated. I am much more interested in sever storms than hurricanes, but I am interested in those too.
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