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Pattern Change Possibly by Thanksgiving Day?

By: TheDawnAwakening , 12:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2013

Models are beginning to show signs of a potential pattern change occurring by sometime near the Thanksgiving Day Holiday week. Models differ on storm details, but both the major computer models show something originating in the Gulf of Mexico by the 26th of DEC. GFS suggests it is an overrunning event bringing front end snows to the region while the EURO is not in the time period yet. However a major frontal boundary moves through around day 7 unleashing the arctic snow hounds on New England and the Northern tier of the United States sometime on the 20-22nd period. GFS does not bring the arctic boundary further south than Ontario, Canada locking up the eastern arctic westerlies over Southern Canada. SO therefore the GFS shows a rather positive AO remaining in effect, but the EURO brings ridging as far north as the Arctic circle. This ridging pushes the arctic jet southward with time, entering the central Plains before reaching the eastern US states. Still too much time for the models to delay the inevitable. I say before Thanksgiving Day, the pattern will be up and down, mild cold mild cold.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:54 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
TheDawnAwakening has created a new entry.
2. TheDawnAwakening
11:03 PM GMT on November 20, 2013
Models as of the 00z and 12z runs of Nov 20th 2013 support a potential clipper system redeveloping offshore with an inverted trough developing overhead or just to the northeast of Cape Cod, MA bringing with it some snows.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. wxdude714
1:46 AM GMT on November 19, 2013
Have you noticed how the GFS has had these imaginary heat waves all season? Every time it's been wrong? Take a look at the 18Z GFS Nov 18 run, another great example of how the entire N. American pattern slows down except the part that pushes the cold air out of the Central and Eastern US at lightning speed. My gut tells me these GFS outputs are rigged in order to surpress energy market prices.
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