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First Signs of Nor'easter on the GFS and EURO runs

By: TheDawnAwakening , 12:24 AM GMT on November 07, 2013

GFS, EURO and GGEM all have shown signs of a major nor'easter impacting the Northeastern US sometime in the 7 day range. The unfortunate news is that the modeled storm idea is still 7 to 8 days away from fruition, but the good news is that the models are showing signs as to why the storm idea might not be that far fetched. The 12z and 18z GFS runs have shown signs of the Northeast Pacific Ocean reacting to the troughing over the GOAK in a good way. First of all ridging is bulging into Alaska from the Aleutian Islands. This ridging pushes the troughing over the Gulf of Alaska into the Northeast Pacific Ocean allowing ridging to build up from CA/MX border into the Rocky Mountains. The Rocky mountain ridging allows the shortwave trough in question to amplify and slow down allowing the tilt to transition from positive to neutral to negative before it hits the coastline and explodes into a coastal snowstorm. However the EURO which previously showed a monster low pressure system now shows the disturbance skirting off the East Coast with little fan fare given that the Pacific Ocean is not as favorable for PNA ridging as the GFS would want us to believe. NAM although not in our time range, it shows the players in question quite well at hour 84, the troughing previously over the Gulf of Alaska, moves down the British Columbian coastline and into the ocean west of Seattle, WA. Right now I would venture to guess that we get something in the middle of all three solutions, we get a storm, but not to the extent the GFS has shown in back to back solutions. I will have another update tomorrow evening when this pattern starts to become clearer with the North Atlantic Ocean index going neutral, more ridging could show up by day 7 allowing the storm duration to last for awhile, but we can get it done without a favorable NAO.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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9:33 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
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