Soon to be Hermine Track

By: TXCWC, 6:42 PM GMT on August 30, 2016

Just a quick entry as there is nothing more I can say that would add to the National Hurricane Center udates other than the belief current offical track forecast is too far to the right/south. Based on updated 12Z model tracks I believe the center of soon to be Hermine will make landfall Thursday night as a 60mph tropical storm or even the possiblity of a borderline Cat 1 hurricane.

A reminder of my Hurricane Season Forecast posted back in late May. Whil...


Updated: 7:24 AM GMT on August 31, 2016

97L aka soon to be Earl?

By: TXCWC, 8:44 PM GMT on July 30, 2016

As of this afternoon the NHC has Atlantic Invest 97L at a 60% chance of developing into a depression or storm in the next 5 days. If/when it does so its new name would be Earl.

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Invest 97L is currently embedded in a moist air environment as well as neutral to favorable windshear conditions but currently does not have a developed low level center core to take advantage and is moving at a fast pace of 25-30mph. In the near term, even i...


Updated: 12:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2016

2016 Hurricane Forecast Prediction

By: TXCWC, 6:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2016

My forecast is overall higher than many offical forecasts already released (see prior blog post). Factored into this forecast is the early activity (2 named storms already), the expected transition to La Nina from El Nino in the Pacific, forecasted shear conditions from various climate models, forecasted precip anamolies and sst conditions, as well as various analogue years.

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2016 Hurricane Season Forecasts - by the numbers

By: TXCWC, 11:24 PM GMT on May 09, 2016

Hurricane Season officially starts June 1 and most organizations have released their official predictions for the year. Below are the forecasts released from Colorado State / Accuweather / TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) / TWC (Weather Channel / Weather Bell / and GWO (Global Weather Oscillations). Averaging out all listed organizations shows a slight above average season coming. Get ready Get ready


Erika Penultimate Track & Possible Strength

By: TXCWC, 12:24 AM GMT on August 27, 2015

The future track of Erika has become much clearer throughout the day. Before showing my updated Penultimate (next to last, immediately before) Track Cone let's take a look at the initial Preliminary track I posted just as 98L became Erika

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After observing all the major operational afternoon forecast model runs I have access to (EURO / GFS / GEM) as well as latest consensus hurricane model tracks, it is now clear that the Gulf of Mexi...


Updated: 7:22 AM GMT on August 27, 2015

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Weather Enthusiast with a focus on Tropics and TX Winter Events. Sharing his thoughts and seeing how he stacks up with the experts.

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