StormWatch / Tropical Update

By: SWFLDigTek , 3:13 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

Some time ago I posted about how my intention was to move away from recanting the weather forecast for Florida and focus on tropical and severe weather threats... However, that is not exactly what took place, and to keep my word, so to say, that you could expect at least one post per week, I did in fact fall back to posting 'weekend forecasts'.

There are several reason why... Posting on 'live weather', such as afternoon storms, is simply not feasible, and even though we have had an active tropical season, a threat to Florida, or even the ConUS, was rare. The time I am able to spend researching and preparing a post is also a factor.

With that in mind, I am again going to move away from posting general forecasts, though I may post about severe weather threats, since that is what I wanted to include all along. I will also follow and post on active tropical systems that could pose a threat to land, and, as time permits, other interesting asides and weather related events or information.

Does that mean I will no longer make weekly posts? It may... I guess I would rather post on topics that interest me and I can research properly, than to just force something out because 'it is time to post'. On the other hand, during times when severe weather threats exist or another reason to update is present, I will post as often as required by the situation.

Anyway, on to the Tropics... An area of interest exists off the coast of Africa, but the chance of it crossing the Atlantic is near zero. Tropical Storm Richard on the other hand, is expected to gain strength and it certainly looks to be in a position to make a lunge at Florida...

That is not expected though, at least in the short term. Rather, the system is expected to wander around for a few days before moving W to NW towards Mexico or perhaps Central America. Several days out the forecast models split on this storm, with one scenario taking Richard northeast, potentially impacting Florida, other models have the system continuing west and being dealt a death blow from high shear in the GOM.

A small chance of this storm obtaining major hurricane status before landfall also exists, so I will keep an eye on Richard and post a storm specific post if and when it may be required.

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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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