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Potent System In Long Range Forecast; Southeast Drought Improving

By: SPLbeater , 11:39 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

The ECMWF and GFS have both hinted at the potential for another low pressure system to move east from the southwest states and provide more winter weather to the southeast. This potential has since been reduced by a good amount, as neither GFS or ECMWF show this low exiting the states any further south then New Jersey. On the other hand, after the current cold front moving over the south exits to the Atlantic, high pressure is forecast to build back in and we will once again be enjoying more sunny skies. I am hoping that the pattern does not shift to where the southeast ends up drier then average, since February's drenching did a terrific job cancelling out all extreme drought areas.

U.S. Drought Monitor for the southeast from March 7th. The table to the left shows the improvements, and the Climate Prediction Center has forecast the northern areas of this drought to continue improving.

Next Ten Days

The period between now and the start of spring looks to be a preview of spring, with mostly sunny weather expected. The GFS and ECMWF do show a system crossing the Midwest states in 3-4 days, but impacts on the south are expected to be minimal to nothing at all. Temperatures are shown to remain roughly around average. The GFS is a bit faster with the above mentioned system, but moisture will likely not be sufficient to support precipitation. Towards the weekend and early next week, there is a trough forecast to move across the southeast bringing more rainfall. Not a big soaking, but some good rainfall totals can be anticipated. Due to this system being over about 9 days out, uncertainty is high, as always. More details on this trough will be mentioned in my next post.

GFS at 8 days out, showing the low crossing the Ohio Valley and trailing cold front to the south.

Speaking for myself, this recent warm weather has made me ready for summer, and hurricane season. My next post at my second blog will be out towards this weekend, and details on my summer blogging will be found there.
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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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About SPLbeater

I began my interest in the weather in 2009...born and currently residing in central North Carolina. 100% patriot, too.

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