SPLbeater's Blog

Potent System In Long Range Forecast; Southeast Drought Improving

By: SPLbeater, 11:39 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

The ECMWF and GFS have both hinted at the potential for another low pressure system to move east from the southwest states and provide more winter weather to the southeast. This potential has since been reduced by a good amount, as neither GFS or ECMWF show this low exiting the states any further south then New Jersey. On the other hand, after the current cold front moving over the south exits to the Atlantic, high pressure is forecast to build back in and we will once again be enjoying more sunny skies. I am hoping that the pattern does not shift to where the southeast ends up drier then average, since February's drenching did a terrific job cancelling out all extreme drought areas.

U.S. Drought Monitor for the southeast from March 7th. The table to the left shows the improvements, and the Climate Prediction Center has forecast the northern areas of this drought to continue improving.

Next Ten Days

The period between now and the start of spring looks to be a preview of spring, with mostly sunny weather expected. The GFS and ECMWF do show a system crossing the Midwest states in 3-4 days, but impacts on the south are expected to be minimal to nothing at all. Temperatures are shown to remain roughly around average. The GFS is a bit faster with the above mentioned system, but moisture will likely not be sufficient to support precipitation. Towards the weekend and early next week, there is a trough forecast to move across the southeast bringing more rainfall. Not a big soaking, but some good rainfall totals can be anticipated. Due to this system being over about 9 days out, uncertainty is high, as always. More details on this trough will be mentioned in my next post.

GFS at 8 days out, showing the low crossing the Ohio Valley and trailing cold front to the south.

Speaking for myself, this recent warm weather has made me ready for summer, and hurricane season. My next post at my second blog will be out towards this weekend, and details on my summer blogging will be found there.
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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!

Model Forecasts Drought

Pleasant Weather Forecast For Southeast

By: SPLbeater, 10:26 PM GMT on March 07, 2013

The next 7 days across the southeastern states will likely yield warm temperatures, with plenty of sunshine. A very nice recovery for the Mid-Atlantic after all that snowfall, with temperature rising to the high 50's in the northern southeast states up to low 70's closer to the Gulf coastline. A trough is forecast to move through early next week, but temperatures will likely not return to below average.

GFS forecast for 10 AM Saturday, indicating the high pressure building south providing warmth. The next cold front is shown sitting near the central plains.

Sunny & Drier

There is no snow in the forecast for this next system to pass through, as there will be no low pressure system to pull cold air down behind it in the south. Long range forecast from the GFS and ECMWF looks quite nice, with no wet weather shown until a 4 day period between March 17th through the 21st, as another front is forecast to move through the south at that time. Since this is long range, details are very short and this will likely fluctuate in timing and intensity, so whether or not snow or ice will be a possibility is unclear.

ECMWF at 10 days out, showing the second next low pressure system beginning to cross the eastern half of the nation.

On March 20th, the topic I post blog entries on will switch to severe weather. Tornado Season is closing in on us, as well as spring, bow echoes and all sorts of dangerous weather. Now would be a great time to review safety plans for your family in advance of any possible severe weather that may head in your direction this year.

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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed weekend ahead of you!

Model Forecasts

Winter Storm Aimed For Mid-Atlantic

By: SPLbeater, 2:01 AM GMT on March 04, 2013

Winter Storm Warnings are out all along the north central plains and south of the Great Lakes in advance of a low pressure system moving southeast. Snowfall totals will likely reach beyond 6 inches for a widespread area, stretching from North Dakota down to Illinois. The main focus of this system, from what I have seen, is around the Mid-Atlantic. A few major models have shown more than 12 inches on the backside of the coming low, but where this will occur is still fairly uncertain. Latest model trends have put northern Virginia in the cross hairs, but a small shift south in the track will have a large impact as to what area sees the greatest snowfall

Current Infrared satellite imagery of the country, showing our game player moving across the northern plains.


I want it noted that I am hesitant to write down a specific area, due to the uncertainty in track. It is a bit more clear then it was a few days ago, which is to be expected.
I personally believe that regardless of a shift in track to the north or south, there will be some accumulations between Greensboro, NC and Richmond, VA. As things stand now, the general consensus shows the low moving east across North Carolina, and then as the center reaches the Atlantic rapid development is shown of the low. Steepening lapse rates near the backside of this low will likely help to enhance a shield of precipitation, which will give high accumulation amounts. As the system sits off the NC Outer Banks and strengthens, the shield of snow is shown to sweep down across Maryland and central Virginia, dropping over 3 inches from around Lynchburg, VA northeast to Baltimore, MD. In the center of this shield of snow, currently forecast to center in northern Virginia, snow accumulations above 12 inches is likely.

As previously stated, a degree or two shift south from the current forecast track would land the center of the low pressure system between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC. This would put central North Carolina underneath the most accumulations. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this scenario is not most likely, but it is still a possibility.

ECMWF/GFS surface pressure comparison from the 12Z runs, showing the ECMWF in orange and GFS in green. If the ECMWF were to occur from this forecast, the center of snowfall accumulations would likely set up near south/southwestern Virginia and northwest North Carolina.

I will try to have another post out Wednesday, hopefully during the morning hours before the bulk of snow begins to fall. Then I can give a certain forecast for accumulations, and pinpoint where.

On another note, for those in NC and SC, the National Weather Service has declared this week 'Severe Weather Awareness' week. A statewide tornado warning drill will be conducted in South Carolina Tuesday, and North Carolina Wednesday.
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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!

Model Forecasts Winter Weather

Introduction. Again.

By: SPLbeater, 8:31 PM GMT on March 01, 2013

Good evening all! Some of you may remember me from late 2011 and early 2012...and after my year's vacation from Wunderground, I am back courtesy of moderator's grace.

After leaving/banned from here, I immediately set up a new blog home at blogspot. The main blog is where I post meteorological stuff, and a second blog does the job for news and other things concerning the blog. This blog here on Wunderground will contain exactly what my main blog does, and everytime I update it with a new post, give it 5 minutes and that content will be shared here.

I hope you all are ready for my return here, even if I wasn't missed. :) Enjoy!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

SPLbeater's Blog

About SPLbeater

I began my interest in the weather in 2009...born and currently residing in central North Carolina. 100% patriot, too.

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