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High impact year expected.

By: SLU , 9:03 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

Of note is that CSU's landfall probabilities are based on the total number of storms predicted so an inactive season would have a lower landfall probability and an active season would naturally have a higher landfall probability. However, they do not take into consideration the anomalous strength of the ridging which also increases or decreases the landfall probabilities. In my opinion, an inactive year with stronger than normal rigding may actually have a higher landfall probability than an active year with a strong and permanent trough over the western Atlantic. Although this is very difficult to predict in advance, I'm sure some kind of analog system can be developed using past seasons to gauge the strength of the ridging possible in any year. Based on the recent trends of strong ridging this year, I believe that the landfall probabilities are actually much higher than that of CSU's estimate and that many of the serious hurricanes this year could threaten if not hit land.

Based on the set up of the 500mb height anomalies, the SLP anomalies and the 400mb air temperature anomalies for June and July, it is certainly setting up to be a very high impact year.

Very strong ridging in June and July may persist throughout ASO and prevent much recurvature.
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Based on my observations, storms tend to congregate and move towards areas where the pressures are lowest and where the 400mb air temperatures are highest relative to normal. Notice how these conditions both exists around the Caribbean and the MDR in general.
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One saving grace may be the extremely dry air across the MDR which might prevent the rapid strengthening of the storms.
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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:08 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
SLU has created a new entry.
2. nigel20
11:08 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Great blog post, SLU!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. ryang
9:11 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Good blog!

Question though...what has been causing the dry conditions across the Caribbean? Is it the strong ridge causing all the dry air? We just had one of our driest Julys on record.
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