# Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:50 AM GMT on October 03, 2013

Barriers in the Atmosphere: Arctic Oscillation (3)

I want to continue with the Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation. First, however, here is the link to my August presentation. Also here is a link to the GLISAclimate.org project workspace where I collected together the materials I used in the presentation - Arctic Oscillation: Climate variability in the Great Lakes.

Here are the previous entries in the series:
Behavior
Definitions and Some Background

This blog is mostly a setup for the next one. (And yes I did notice that the IPCC AR-5 report was released, but I don’t have anything different to say about it than many of my more able colleagues. I’ll get to it.)

In the talk that I linked to above, I used a couple of diagrams that the audience told me worked very well. I am going to try them out in this blog. In the previous blogs I used the CPC Climate Glossary to give the definition of the Arctic Oscillation. “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.” This definition does not really do much for me. It’s one of those definitions that I imagine if I ask 10 atmospheric scientists to tell me what it means, I will get 12 answers. Therefore, I will draw a picture.

Figure 1: Adapted from Jim Hurrell – This picture is a schematic representation of the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. In the positive phase the pressure is low at the pole and high at middle latitudes. This is the positive phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is large. In the negative phase the pressure is not as low at the pole and not as high at middle latitudes. This is the negative phase because if you calculate the difference between middle and high latitudes it is small. The refrigerator suggests that this is like opening and closing the refrigerator door (see Behavior).

This figure helps me with the definition. I want to focus on the low pressure at high latitudes, which in this figure is drawn idealistically at the pole. In reality, it is likely to wander off the pole, a fact that will be important in the next blog. When the pressure is low at the pole, then there is a stronger vortex of air circulating around the pole. When the pressure at the pole is not as low, then there is a weaker vortex. In both cases, strong or weak vortex, the air generally moves from west to east.

For clarity, vorticity is a parameter that describes rotation in a fluid. A vortex is a feature in a fluid dominated by vorticity – that is it is rotationally dominated. Tornadoes and hurricanes are weather features that we often call vortices; there is an obvious circulation of air in these features. In the Earth’s atmosphere at middle and high latitudes rotation is an important characteristic of the flow, due to the rotation of the Earth. The reason air moves in the west to east direction for both the weak and strong vortex cases of Figure 1 is that the rotation of the Earth is important to the flow.

In Figure 2 I have set up an even more idealized figure. I also provide this link to a Powerpoint animation, that I am not smart enough to incorporate into the blog. In the animation I have five slides that clarify the point that I make in Figure 2.

Figure 2: A vortex and a ball. In the center of the figure is low pressure, meant to be an analogue to the vortex over the pole in Figure 1. Parcels of air move around the low pressure system. If it takes the same amount of time for a parcel farther away from the low pressure center to go around the vortex as a parcel nearer the center, then the parcel farther away has to go faster because the distance it has to go is longer. That is why I drew that arrow, saying that air moves “faster” at the outside edge of the vortex.

To set my point a little more, imagine you are on a bridge overlooking a running stream. If you drop a stick in the water near the edge where the water is moving slowly, then if the stick drifts towards the more rapidly flowing water, it is carried downstream at the edge of the fast moving water. It does not cross the core of fast moving water – this jet of water. In fact the jet is something of a barrier that keeps material from crossing the stream. Material is transported downstream.

Back to Figure 2: Imagine that you want to roll a ball into the center of a vortex. As the ball gets to the edge it gets caught up in the flow and pulled around the edge. It does not roll into the center. Look at the this link to a Powerpoint animation to get a better idea of what’s going on.

Now go back to Figure 1. The vortex in Figure 1 is also a barrier. The southern edge of vortex is a jet stream. Air on the two sides of the vortex often has different characteristics. Intuitively, there is colder air on the poleward side. If you look at trace gases, like ozone, they are different across the edge of the vortex. The takeaway idea is that the edge of the vortex is a barrier. It’s not a perfect barrier, but air on one side is largely separated from the air on the other side. In the next blog, I will describe the difference between the strong and the weak case and its relevance to weather, climate and, perhaps, climate change.

r

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##### 120. BaltimoreBrian
 And I will post all legitimate science as it comes out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
##### 119. BaltimoreBrian
 Quoting 117. SteveDa1:Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog... Farewell everyone.Goodbye Steve. You'll be missed.
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##### 117. SteveDa1
 Just wanted to tell you all that I'm moving on from this blog... Farewell everyone.
##### 116. Daisyworld
 A possible nascent solution to the climate crisis quashed by the US government shutdown:Apparent breakthrough in nuclear fusion silenced by shutdownChenda Ngak | CBS News | October 8, 2013Scientists have come one step closer to harnessing the power of the sun. Researchers at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have passed a milestone in achieving self-sustaining nuclear fusion -- but you won't hear about it from the researchers. The NIF team has been furloughed as a result of the U.S. government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1, and is not releasing updates to the press.According to the BBC, a research experiment conducted in late September succeeded in releasing more energy through a fusion reaction than it absorbed by the fuel going in. NIF is the first research facility in the world to achieve this goal. A spokesperson for the NIF could not give CBSNews.com a comment on the results of the experiment.NIF's method for achieving fusion involves sending 192 laser beams through a 1,500-meter journey that increases its energy output by a factor of more than a quadrillion. The laser beams' energy grows from one-billionth of a joule to 4 million joules in 5 millionths of a second.Scientists believe that fusion can fuel our future without threat of nuclear proliferation or environmental damage because the process of creating fusion requires very few resources. One of the biggest challenges in producing energy derived from fusion has been to pass the break-even point -- a goal that has eluded scientists for nearly 50 years.Nuclear fusion is not to be confused with nuclear fission. Instead of splitting an atom's nucleus, like in fission, nuclear fusion is the process of bringing together two atomic nuclei to form a new nucleus.While the NIF has passed the break-even point, it is just shy of reaching "ignition" -- when nuclear fusion produces as much energy as is supplied to the lasers.The NIF set a goal for achieving ignition by 2012, but a series of technical difficulties put the research behind schedule. The \$3.5 billion Livermore, Calif. lab houses the world's largest laser. A research facility in Cadarache, France called the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is also pursuing nuclear fusion research. However, ITER scientists aim to conduct experiments in burning plasma.© 2013 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
##### 114. JohnLonergan
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
##### 113. SteveDa1
 Quoting 92. indianrivguy:how do you power the plants and get the HUGE amount of water we consume.. desal is NOT the answer. Preventing oil and agriculture from poisoning it and capturing runoff might be. How do the millions of people inland and the millions of acres of crops inland get enough.. Every power plant on the planet would not desal enough volume for the virus known as man.. the human herd will be culled in a terrible way this century. We simply cannot sustain our current lifestyle given our population and the available resources.Sometimes I have moments of excessive thought shallowness! I should refrain from commenting during those times.I agree we will suffer as a whole but better times will follow. We have been going in a forward direction extremely quickly without much thought and it will lead to catastrophe in the near-future but we will learn from our mistakes... Too bad we could learn now.
##### 111. ScottLincoln
 Quoting 108. Naga5000:No, Yoboi, no. If that's the case, keep believing hacks. There is no hoax. If you have the hard evidence that contradicts AGW, publish it. Until then, stop with the bull.Save your sanity. Use your ignore list.He goes in circles over and over. If it isn't you, it's someone else. Intellectually honest debate left the station years ago.
##### 110. Naga5000
 Quoting 109. yoboi:What do you think Al Gore cares more about money or the planet earth??????Al Gore is not a climate scientist. Give it up.
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##### 108. Naga5000
 Quoting 107. yoboi:I just don't understand how you don't see the hoax....it is so plain as day it amazes me that some people can't see it.....they are no different than the fossil fuel industry.....No, Yoboi, no. If that's the case, keep believing hacks. There is no hoax. If you have the hard evidence that contradicts AGW, publish it. Until then, stop with the bull.
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##### 106. Naga5000
 Quoting 102. yoboi:What about the IPPC?????Dr. Madhav Khandekar, who worked with the IPCC until becoming outraged by its lack of interest in proper scientific reviewHe went to where the money is, the Heartland Institute. If you think groups like Heartland, CATO, NIPCC are scientific and accepted in the real world outside of the right wing echo chamber, you are sorely mistaken.
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##### 104. Naga5000
 Quoting 101. yoboi:why is it every Scientist I post... you all have something bad to say about that person???? According to your fav pic only 24 scientist are against AGW....I have posted more than 24.......You pick paid denialists. You wouldn't catch me calling them Scientists. Your "more than 24" have repeatedly lied, misrepresented positions, some have even had papers retracted. You can keep playing this "look at both sides" game. I am not doing it anymore.
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##### 103. JohnLonergan
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##### 100. Naga5000
 Quoting 99. JohnLonergan:Yeah, it is too easy when everyone they reference is right there in the DeSmogBlog Global Warming Disinformation Database The NIPCC is also included in the debunking I read today from CHEK CLIMATE NEWS: Conservative groups at the forefront of global warming denialism are doubling down on trying to discredit the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In recent weeks, they’ve been cranking out a stream of op-eds, blogs and reports to sow doubt in the public’s mind before the report is published, with no end in sight, Chek Climate News has learned.“The goal is to inform the public, scientific community and media that the upcoming IPCC report doesn’t have all the science to make informed judgments,” said Jim B’Ozo, a spokesman for the Clownshoe Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Chicago that has been spearheading the efforts.Clownshoe gained notoriety last year after running a billboard campaign comparing climate change believers to “Tunabomber” Jed Kyrgyzsta (pronounced ‘kyrgyzsta’), which caused several corporate donors and ichthusophiles worldwide to withdraw support for the group.Read more at CHEK CLIMATE NEWSA dead giveaway is the name, just a lame attempt to look official and confuse.
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##### 99. JohnLonergan
 Quoting 98. Naga5000:Yoboi, the NIPCC is fraudulent. End of line. LinkYeah, it is too easy when everyone they reference is right there in the DeSmogBlog Global Warming Disinformation Database The NIPCC is also included in the debunking I read today from CHEK CLIMATE NEWS: Conservative groups at the forefront of global warming denialism are doubling down on trying to discredit the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In recent weeks, they’ve been cranking out a stream of op-eds, blogs and reports to sow doubt in the public’s mind before the report is published, with no end in sight, Chek Climate News has learned.“The goal is to inform the public, scientific community and media that the upcoming IPCC report doesn’t have all the science to make informed judgments,” said Jim B’Ozo, a spokesman for the Clownshoe Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Chicago that has been spearheading the efforts.Clownshoe gained notoriety last year after running a billboard campaign comparing climate change believers to “Tunabomber” Jed Kyrgyzsta (pronounced ‘kyrgyzsta’), which caused several corporate donors and ichthusophiles worldwide to withdraw support for the group.Read more at CHEK CLIMATE NEWS
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##### 98. Naga5000
 Quoting 96. yoboi:“CO2 is ‘the gas of life,’” said NIPCC contributing author Dr. Tom Segalstad, associate professor of resource and environmental geology and geochemistry at the University of Oslo. “The more CO2, the more life. More CO2 means we can feed more people on Earth. CO2 is contributing very little to the ‘greenhouse effect.’ Clouds have much more influence on temperature.” NIPCC lead author and meteorologist Dr. Madhav Khandekar, who worked with the IPCC until becoming outraged by its lack of interest in proper scientific review, also pointed out that human-added CO2 is not destabilizing the climate.The NIPCC authors, whose report contains thousands of citations to peer-reviewed literature, also do not believe man-made global warming represents a crisis. They argue that not enough is even known about the climate to make policy-relevant recommendations at this point. Executive Director Tom Harris with the International Climate Science Coalition, however, went further, saying the NIPCC report “demonstrates that the science being relied upon by governments to create multi-billion dollar policies is almost certainly wrong.” Indeed, the independent scientists even point out that whatever small warming may occur would probably produce some benefits as well. LinkYoboi, the NIPCC is fraudulent. End of line. Link
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##### 97. JohnLonergan
 Quoting 94. yoboi::snipYou mean this Zbigniew Jaworowski:...AffiliationsInternational Climate Change Assessment Project (ICECAP) — "Expert." [8]Biological Effects of Low Level Exposures group (BELLE) — "International Member." [9]Sponsors for BELLE include British American Tobacco, ExxonMobil, Phillip Morris and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco.PublicationsAccording to a search of 22,000 academic journals, Jaworowski has published 17 research articles in peer-reviewed journals, mainly on the subject of radioactivity.According to a search of Google Scholar, Jaworowski has published some articles on climate, in skeptical journals such as Energy & Environment:Zbigniew Jaworowski. "Solar Cycles, Not CO2, Determine Climate" (PDF),21st Century Science & Technology, Winter 2003-2004."Nature Rules the Climate," Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1 (January 2005).So, Dr ZJ has no relevant scientific publications and is a paid shill for the tobacco industry.I wonder if he was one of the 9 out of 10 doctors who preferred Camels?
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##### 95. Naga5000
 Quoting 94. yoboi:Physicist Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, Chairman of the Central Laboratory for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Radiological Protection in Warsaw, took a scientific journey from a believer of man-made climate change in the form of global cooling in the 1970s all the way to converting to a skeptic of current predictions of catastrophic man-made global warming. "At the beginning of the 1970s I believed in man-made climate cooling, and therefore I started a study on the effects of industrial pollution on the global atmosphere, using glaciers as a history book on this pollution," Dr. Jaworowski,LinkSo she was backwards back then and still backwards today. Thanks.
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##### 93. Xandra
 From Nature News Blog:United States suspends Antarctic research seasonThe US National Science Foundation (NSF) is recalling staff and scientists from Antarctica due to the ongoing US government shutdown. Nearly all science at the three US bases will grind to a halt.The agency’s decision, posted today, could spell the end of this year’s Antarctic field season at McMurdo, Amundsen-Scott and Palmer stations, depending on the duration of the shutdown, which began on 1 October and shows no signs of ending.The NSF said it would work to restore the research season "to the maximum extent possible" once funding is restored. The agency said, however, that some activities could not be restarted once the evacuation was complete and the seasonal windows for research and operations had passed.Lockheed Martin, the contractor that runs the US bases for the NSF, had already been preparing to put the facilities in 'caretaker status'. The company received its last funding from the NSF on 30 September, according to internal e-mails obtained by Nature. In its statement, the NSF said Lockheed had enough money on hand to ensure operations through 14 October.A skeleton crew will remain to properly maintain each of the three bases, as is normally the practice during the Antarctic off-season, from March to September. During a normal year, roughly 700 scientists head south each year to study Antarctica’s ice, ecosystems and atmosphere from October to February.Scientists are frustrated that long-term studies will be interrupted. "If we lose a year of observations, they are gone forever," says Hugh Ducklow, a biological oceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York.Ducklow is working on a 20-year-old project to monitor the ecosystem near Palmer Station on the Antarctic Peninsula. The work includes an annual census of penguin populations, which have shifted significantly in recent years as the peninsula has warmed. "A number of the remaining colonies of Adélie penguins in our study are so low now that they could go extinct almost any time," Ducklow says.The US shutdown could also have repercussions for other nations’ Antarctic research programmes. New Zealand’s Scott Base and the joint French-Italian Concordia Station rely on the US programme for some transportation needs, including helicopter support of field research and access to McMurdo Station’s sea-ice runway, which can handle heavy cargo plane landings. Lisa-Marie Brooks, a spokesperson for Antarctica New Zealand, said in an e-mail that the agency was developing contingency plans to minimize the impact of the US shutdown on its operations but did not offer more details.
##### 92. indianrivguy
 Quoting 88. SteveDa1:That has never bothered me because we can always use desalination plants to supply all our watery needs. In fact, I don't understand why people make such a big deal about lack of water when it is so abundant. Sure it requires a lot of money but what is money when the most precious thing on earth is needed?Rainfall on the west coast of Australia has substantially diminished in the last century and what did they do? You guessed it.how do you power the plants and get the HUGE amount of water we consume.. desal is NOT the answer. Preventing oil and agriculture from poisoning it and capturing runoff might be. How do the millions of people inland and the millions of acres of crops inland get enough.. Every power plant on the planet would not desal enough volume for the virus known as man.. the human herd will be culled in a terrible way this century. We simply cannot sustain our current lifestyle given our population and the available resources.
##### 91. SteveDa1
 Didn't what I said make sense?
##### 90. JohnLonergan
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
##### 89. Naga5000
 Quoting 84. Cochise111:Where's the missing heat? It certainly isn't in the oceans. It's funny that Trenberth thought he could hide the heat in some seemingly inaccessible spot. Too bad for him. I guess he'll next say it is being stored in the Earth's mantle:LinkWow...you really don't know how to read a scientific research paper do you? Seems consistent with the denizens of those pseudo science blogs.
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##### 88. SteveDa1
 Quoting 87. RevElvis:9 billion people worldwide attempt to share the planet's three percent of useable waterThat has never bothered me because we can always use desalination plants to supply all our watery needs. In fact, I don't understand why people make such a big deal about lack of water when it is so abundant. Sure it requires a lot of money but what is money when the most precious thing on earth is needed?Rainfall on the west coast of Australia has substantially diminished in the last century and what did they do? You guessed it.
##### 87. RevElvis
 How We're All Going to Die in 2050 While some current causes of death should continue on their increasingly deadly pace, several potentially fatal problems developing today could join these common killers, including deadly superbugs, the ever-changing climate and more.Malaria and dengue feverHeat-related deaths might quadruple by 2050Urban pollution will kill 3.6 million people a year by 2050Antibiotic-resistant diseases kill at least 23,000 people per year in the United States. Another two million are infected with these diseases each year.The strengthening of superbugs - and the weakening of antibiotics - could cause these diseases to wipe out large clusters of people by 2050.9 billion people worldwide attempt to share the planet's three percent of useable waterWeather.com
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##### 86. RevElvis
 Nobel Medicine Prize winners warn: Science in the U.S. is in perilThree American winners of the Nobel Prize for Medicine on Monday said scientific progress in the United States is in peril due to unprecedented funding cuts and ideological challenges.It seems to me there is a significant increasingly vocal percentage of the population that thinks we shouldn't go after truth and truth is not important. And so that worries the hell out me," said Suedhof, who is an American citizen.But he described the biggest problem as %u201Cthis cognitive dissonance - in America. "You can't at the same time be for science and against it," he said.RawStory.com (AFP)2012 Nobel Prize Winner Furloughed Due To Government Shutdown HuffingtonPost.com
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##### 83. georgevandenberghe
 Quoting 79. JohnLonergan:Actually Reid Bryson won't be supporting anything these days. He also has not published anything in 30 years according to Google Scholar. More about the late Dr Bryson at Desmogblog, I don't consider anyone in the Desmogblog denier database as even remotely credible.The idea of global cooling from aerosol was viable in the early 70s and followed 15 years of observed cooling in the 60s and early 70s. However it was NEVER settled the way GW theory has been in the past 10 years and it got more visibility in the popular press where it was treated as an imminent certainty, than in the scientific literature. I find it somewhat ironic that Dr Bryson worked at Wisconsin where growing degree days were closely tracked each summer of the 70s and 80s to answer the question "will the corn get enough heat to mature this year". Tracking of GDD has been less visible in recent years with apparently less concern about getting enough.
##### 82. JohnLonergan
 Horatio Algeranon takes a whimsical look at "The Pause" with some very solid analysis:Double Standard Deviation-- by Horatio AlgeranonIt's double standard deviationWhen "skeptics" claim a "pause",Ignoring double-sigma ration Because that helps their cause.As pointed out by Tamino in Double Standard, climate "skeptics" focus on the last 15 years which appear to show a surface temperature trend less than the long term (30-40 year) upward trend (~0.17 degC/decade since 1975), while ignoring 15 year periods that show an "apparent" trend greater than the long term trend.In the case of the last 15 years, they conveniently ignore the "2-standard-deviations" uncertainty that is the normal scientific standard for determining whether trends are actually "significantly" different (statistically speaking).Appearances can be deceiving. Trends taken over short time periods (even 15 years) are only "apparent" and are very uncertain, because of year to year noise due to things like El Nino, La Nina and volcanic eruptions.*Read more at Horatio Algeranon
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##### 81. JohnLonergan
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##### 80. FLwolverine
 Quoting 78. JohnLonergan:Better than a fish slap.But not better than the fish slapping dance. Link
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##### 79. JohnLonergan
 Quoting 77. FLwolverine:Congratuations! You've found a scientist who supported the global cooling theory: (from Wiki). "Bryson's main contribution to the debate on climate change was the idea of "the human volcano" causing global cooling, via an increase in aerosol loading.[2] This idea was sparked in 1962 by his own observation, while flying across India en route to a conference, that his view of the ground was blocked not by clouds but by dust. At the time, the instrumental temperature record did not show unambiguous warming and the view that the earth might be cooling, and heading for further cooling, was not unreasonable. Others, including Hubert Lamb, who created a Dust Veil Index,[3] thought volcanoes were more responsible for global-scale aerosol."Unfortunately, I don't think a 2007 article from an intelligent design website is going to have much credibility.Actually Reid Bryson won't be supporting anything these days. He also has not published anything in 30 years according to Google Scholar. More about the late Dr Bryson at Desmogblog, I don't consider anyone in the Desmogblog denier database as even remotely credible.
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##### 78. JohnLonergan
 Quoting 74. BaltimoreBrian:Better than a fish slap.
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##### 77. FLwolverine
 Quoting 70. yoboi:Reid Bryson is Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography and of Environmental Studies. Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research, The Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies (Founding Director), the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Many climatologists regard him as the father of climatology. Professor Bryson calls manmade global warming absurd.LinkCongratuations! You've found a scientist who supported the global cooling theory: (from Wiki). "Bryson's main contribution to the debate on climate change was the idea of "the human volcano" causing global cooling, via an increase in aerosol loading.[2] This idea was sparked in 1962 by his own observation, while flying across India en route to a conference, that his view of the ground was blocked not by clouds but by dust. At the time, the instrumental temperature record did not show unambiguous warming and the view that the earth might be cooling, and heading for further cooling, was not unreasonable. Others, including Hubert Lamb, who created a Dust Veil Index,[3] thought volcanoes were more responsible for global-scale aerosol."Unfortunately, I don't think a 2007 article from an intelligent design website is going to have much credibility.
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##### 76. RevElvis
 Water for a Thirsty WorldAngel Boligan, Cagle Cartoons, El Universal, Mexico City
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##### 75. RevElvis
 Oceans face 'deadly trio' of threats, study saysThe world's oceans are under greater threat than previously believed from a "deadly trio" of global warming, declining oxygen levels and acidification, an international study said on Thursday.The oceans have continued to warm, pushing many commercial fish stocks towards the poles and raising the risk of extinction for some marine species, despite a slower pace of temperature rises in the atmosphere this century, it said."Risks to the ocean and the ecosystems it supports have been significantly underestimated," according to the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), a non-governmental group of leading scientists."The scale and rate of the present day carbon perturbation, and resulting ocean acidification, is unprecedented in Earth's known history," according to the report, made with the International Union for Conservation of Nature.The oceans are warming because of heat from a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Fertilizers and sewage that wash into the oceans can cause blooms of algae that reduce oxygen levels in the waters. And carbon dioxide in the air can form a weak acid when it reacts with sea water."The ‘deadly trio' of ... acidification, warming and deoxygenation is seriously affecting how productive and efficient the ocean is," the study said.Reuters.com
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##### 74. BaltimoreBrian
 Quoting 67. Cochise111:It's the water, stupid:
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##### 72. SteveDa1
 Quoting 67. Cochise111:It's the water, stupid:LinkWhy do you believes his story instead of a climate scientist's work? Because the climate scientist is in a conspiracy, right. Then how do you know Steve Goreham isn't in one?I'm asking you to be honest with yourself; I must have lost it!

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