The Free Market and the Climate Model: Models, Water, and Temperature (8)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2012

The Free Market and the Climate Model: Models, Water, and Temperature (8)

I am returning to my series of blogs on models, water, and temperature (see Intro, and previous entry). The earlier entries in the series are linked at the end.

The previous blog was a diversion from the series and reported on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Accompanying the publication of that document a new website was published Climate Modeling 101, which is an introduction to modeling more anchored in scientific language than the series I am currently writing. Give it a try.

Doing Science with Models 1.5: I have used the example of balancing a checkbook to write about the balance of energy at the center of the study of the Earth’s climate. I have shown that despite the simplicity of balancing the budget of a single account, there are many ways in which complexity emerges.

Let’s look at just one of these exchanges of energy, say between the atmosphere and ocean. We have wind in the atmosphere, which as it blows over the ocean, exerts a stress that causes waves and large surface currents, for example, the The Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a warm-water current that carries heat from the Gulf of Mexico to the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At high latitudes, heat is transferred from the warm water of the Gulf Stream to the air. This heat keeps western Europe far warmer than would be the case if warming came only from the Sun. We have here the transfer of energy by motion of air and water, referred to as kinetic energy, as well as the transfer of heat or thermal energy between air and water.

Rain also represents energy transfer. We naturally think of rain as a source of water. However, in order for water to get into the atmosphere from the ocean, it must evaporate – turn from liquid to vapor. This takes energy, just as you have to add energy to a pan of water to boil it. This type of energy is latent energy, because it just sits in the water vapor until it gets cold enough to give up that energy as it condenses back to liquid water or ice, maybe many thousands of miles from where it evaporated.

If you focus on evaporation, then the heat from the Sun that is absorbed at the Earth’s surface is one source of the energy that evaporates water. So in our accounting problem, we account for some energy from the Sun that is absorbed at the ocean’s surface, which evaporates water, transferring energy to the atmosphere that is released in the atmosphere when it rains.

Hence, as we break down the problem to understand the accounting of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, we find several types of transfers that can occur. If we extend our consideration to the land, then we would consider trees, which take up energy from the Sun to drive photosynthesis and move liquid water from the soil to water vapor in the air through their roots and leaves. If we are doing an accounting of what trees do, then we have to take into the specifics of different types of trees: oaks behave differently from pines and bristlecone pines behave differently from loblolly pines. Trees behave differently from grasses, which are different from cacti, which are different from mushrooms.

The diversity of the natural world presents us with enormous complexity when we desire to describe it quantitatively. But at the foundation of the accounting is the budget equation for energy

Today’s Energy = Yesterday’s Energy + Energy Gained – Energy Lost

We write an energy equation for the atmosphere, and that energy equation will include how much energy is lost to the land surface over grassy surfaces, tree covered surfaces, and sandy deserts. There will be contributions to the energy equation for each process on Earth that our point of view brings us to. The total energy accounting is computed by adding up all of these energy transactions.

I want to return, now, explicitly to the budget equation for money. I made the point in Ledgers, Graphics, and Carvings that many of us have become familiar and comfortable with the idea of using computers to do our accounting and account balancing. The budget equations that represent our checking and savings accounts and the transfers between them are managed by software like Quicken or in spreadsheets like Excel. It is possible to do monthly accounting to the penny. If we think about our credit union, it manages thousands of accounts with near-perfect accuracy. A large bank manages millions of accounts, and a credit card company manages billions of transactions. Therefore, it is routine to accumulate millions of accounts and billions of transactions into large calculations. This sort of accounting problem is large and complex and requires diligence, rigor, and checking to get correct. The same is true with climate modeling. Each of the sales and returns and the transfers are, individually, simple, and in their total, complex. All of these financial accounting challenges are shared with climate modelers. The fact that we can do this financial accounting should demystify climate modeling. The complexity is a challenge, but it does not suggest impossibility. There is no magic that has to be invoked in the building of a climate model. (And, yes, you could write a climate model in Excel.)

As we collect information from all of our financial accounts, we start to describe our economy. In the United States, we imagine that we want a free market, one whose behavior is described by the law of supply and demand. If there is low supply and high demand for gasoline, the price is high. If there is high supply and low demand for terrier sweaters, then the price is low. Our purchase of gasoline and terrier sweaters is a loss of money to us, but a gain of money to their respective industries. We also make money itself a marketable item; we loan and lend for a price. We find these relations that emerge, for instance, when money is tight, then it costs more to borrow. Again, it is an issue of supply and demand, which is viewed as a defining law of markets and economies.

It is at this point of my comparison of financial budgets with energy budgets that an important difference emerges. It is in principle easier to predict the Earth’s climate than it is to predict how our economy will evolve. Why? Behavior. In financial transactions and our economy, people make decisions based upon necessity and whim. The fortunate among us might spend vast amounts on terrier sweaters, simply because we want terrier sweaters. The energy transactions in the Earth’s climate are far more boring: they are constrained by physical laws of conservation. The amount of rain cannot be just any number. It can be no more than the amount of water vapor that is available in the atmosphere to condense and fall out. The sea ice in the Arctic requires a certain amount of energy to melt. Once that melting has occurred, additional heat warms the ocean, and some of that heat expands the water. There are strict limits on behavior of the individual parts of the Earth’s climate, which do not hold true when buying and selling.

For the Earth’s climate, a strong constraint in any quantitative description is the amount of energy provided to the Earth by the Sun. The Sun is relatively stable in the amount of energy that it emits. Over the life of the Sun, its energy emission has increased by about 25 percent (Newman and Rood (Robert)). Over the span of a human life, the Sun varies up and down only a percent or so. But this is not true with money. We print money as our economies and populations grow. We try to engineer a stable economy, which actually means an economy that is growing fast enough to provide employment to an increasing population. This requires exploitation of new resources, innovation, fashionable ideas, or, perhaps, printing more money.

There is no denying that quantifying the observed behavior of our climate is a problem of immense complexity. It is, however, not a problem that is difficult to conceive. We have simple relationships based on calculating budgets of energy: production, loss, and transfers. These relationships define and constrain behavior of the processes that make up the climate as a whole. There is no free will, no credit, no overdraft protection to behave outside of these constraints. Arguments that the climate problem is too large and too complex to model and understand are simply spurious. We just require diligence, rigor, and checking our work in our accounting.

r

Models, Water, and Temperature

Models are Not All Wet: Series Introduction

Models are Everywhere

Ledgers, Graphics, and Carvings

Balancing the Budget

Point of View

Looking Under the Cloak of Complexity

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1:41 AM GMT on October 05, 2012
 RickyRood has created a new entry.
127. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:38 AM GMT on October 05, 2012
 Quoting nymore:I see Al Gore blamed the air (altitude) in Denver for the POTUS losing last night. MORE PROOF OF AGWT OR MORE PROOF OF NOTHING?To think some of you think this guy is great.WOWAl Gore is NOT a scientist. When I want answers that require a scientist, I will ask a scientist. All you want to do is to shoot the messenger. What is your gain from this?
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126. nymore
1:18 AM GMT on October 05, 2012
 I see Al Gore blamed the air (altitude) in Denver for the POTUS losing last night. MORE PROOF OF AGWT OR MORE PROOF OF NOTHING?To think some of you think this guy is great.WOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting Neapolitan:Tamino just posted a pretty disturbing blog entry. It's nothing we science-minded, non-ideological objective realists aren't already aware of, but, still, seeing things condensed this way is eye-opening. In short, the entry states that we are in deep, deep trouble. A brief excerpt (boldface mine):"The evidence is right before our eyes. The climate system is out of control. I don’t mean 'our' control, we never had that, I mean out of control of its own self-regulating mechanisms. It’s changing in astounding ways, with frightening speed, and it’s going to get worse.We are no longer in a position to consider the coming changes 'acceptable' or even 'tolerable. Adaptation is not a viable option. The coming changes involve food and water shortages, and all the human conflict (like nuclear war) which that kind of strife induces."Tamino's Wordpress blogPermafrost ProjectionsModelling the permafrost carbon feedback(A cheery snippet from that last link: "The permafrost feedback response to our historic emissions, even in the absence of future human emissions, is likely to be self-sustaining and will cancel out future natural carbon sinks in the oceans and biosphere over the next two centuries.")Oh, sh--er, dear. :\In my unscientific terms, I had already felt that this was the case. I am just here to swat the flies, as the flesh begins to rot away.
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124. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting yoboi:the president has made plenty of executive orders...Which one?Barack ObamaGeorge W. BushWilliam ClintonGeorge H. W. BushRonald ReaganJimmy CarterGerald FordRichard NixonLyndon JohnsonJohn F. KennedyDwight EisenhowerThe presidents before this were involved with WWII and before.
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123. Neapolitan
8:39 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Tamino just posted a pretty disturbing blog entry. It's nothing we science-minded, non-ideological objective realists aren't already aware of, but, still, seeing things condensed this way is eye-opening. In short, the entry states that we are in deep, deep trouble. A brief excerpt (boldface mine):"The evidence is right before our eyes. The climate system is out of control. I don’t mean 'our' control, we never had that, I mean out of control of its own self-regulating mechanisms. It’s changing in astounding ways, with frightening speed, and it’s going to get worse.We are no longer in a position to consider the coming changes 'acceptable' or even 'tolerable. Adaptation is not a viable option. The coming changes involve food and water shortages, and all the human conflict (like nuclear war) which that kind of strife induces."Tamino's Wordpress blogPermafrost ProjectionsModelling the permafrost carbon feedback(A cheery snippet from that last link: "The permafrost feedback response to our historic emissions, even in the absence of future human emissions, is likely to be self-sustaining and will cancel out future natural carbon sinks in the oceans and biosphere over the next two centuries.")Oh, sh--er, dear. :\
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121. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:13 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting yoboi:yeah it does and someone promised 4 yrs ago that he would end all that and now i see it was all an act...Congress controls the purse strings. All candidates seem to make promises that are not within their powers to keep. The only real power, that a sitting president has, is to withdraw troops. Executive orders can easily be over turned, by any incoming president.
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119. Neapolitan
7:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Because it moves so fast, one can post a lot of comments over at Dr. Masters' blog forum that may go unanswered and unchallenged. Here, however, posting blatant falsehoods will get one ridiculed at best, and possibly humiliated. If you're going to step into this arena, then, you need to come armed with more than a handful of denialist talking points cribbed from a lie-filled contender's debate performance.
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117. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:12 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting yoboi:i am mad we got scammed out of 90 billion for a green energy company that went bankrupt...Does it make you mad when our tax dollars are used to subsidize some of the wealthiest companies in the world?
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115. RevElvis
4:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting yoboi:i am mad we got scammed out of 90 billion for a green energy company that went bankrupt...WashingtonPost.comRomney also wrongly claimed that about half of the companies funded by these energy programs have gone out of business - a statement that was quickly rebutted by fact-checkers. (The true figure is less than 1 percent.)Most of the MSM have posted "fact-check" articles on their web-sites this morning (with the exception of the "Fair & Balanced" one - they have already "called the election".)BTW - (deleted - my bad math skills)AZdailysun.com
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112. Snowfire
1:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 It is more difficult to describe the day-to-day evolution of an economy than the evolution of a climate because this is the wrong analogy. The ups and downs of an economy are analogous to weather, not climate. Chaotic systems are difficult to model in detail very far out. A branch of economics called thermodynamic economics does in fact build on the idea that wealth and free energy are interchangeable quantities.
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111. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:38 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting TomballTXPride:109:More attacks and name calling, I see. That's okay. Your true colors are beginning to show right before your eyes. If only you can see it.Neapolitan is able to defend his actions for himself. However the ones he is responding to are well known here. Ossqss is "the music man" that also seems to have a beleif that he is the son of Apollo and that his father is responsible for all that we see. Ossqss is notorious for his drive by deposits of links to long debunked science and his posts of music videos. Ossqss can sometimes appear to be a jerk, but he will try to shift attention to the action of others. This is what he is best at doing. Understanding the science behind the AGWT is not one of his fortes.Nymore is a nice person, but last year he confessed to being nothing more than a troll here. Nymore is an intelligent individual and I am still at a loss as to why he would use such trollish behavior on such a serious topic.Stick around, TomballTXPride and you will be able to make some interesting studies of the personalities that will frequent here. Soon, if you are paying attention, you will discover who is bringing the actual science and who is trying to distort and confuse the science for the novice that is still trying to learn the truth.
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109. Neapolitan
11:51 AM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting Ossqss:Soooooo, you did have written consent to copy and publicly reproduce images from a published document for your own financial benefit?I do smell something.......No written consent necessary. You may want to brush up on copyright law and Fair Use--though I'd prefer you do that after catching up on climate science, and that may take a while as you've obviously got a lot of catching up to do. ;-)In other news: I see nymore is back with us again, still confused about what climate change and global warming mean. Nymore, please avail yourself of some of the many excellent and extant resources created for steering neophytes such as yourself through the basics of climate science. Doing so will help you avoid repeating silly beginner's mistakes, such as assuming global warming means the end of snowfall.
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108. Ossqss
3:38 AM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting Neapolitan:Of course, those able to read (and my apologies to those who apparently can't) will have seen that that image comes directly from the Science Direct article to which I linked immediately prior.One can almost smell the frustration of the denialistas. As they become increasingly aware that they've got nothing scientific on which to stand, they resort to ad hominems and the posting of blather from discredited Big Energy-funded "scientists" such as Willie Soon. But as irritating as such behavior is, it at least tells us just how desperate they've become, no?Soooooo, you did have written consent to copy and publicly reproduce images from a published document for your own financial benefit? Nice!I do smell something.......
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106. nymore
2:09 AM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting cyclonebuster:That's what happens when the great lakes are so hot.......Well since it is west of the great lakes, I do not see how this would effect it.MAYBE WE CAN DRILL TUNNELS FROM MILES CITY, MT TO DULUTH,MN?
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104. Xulonn
12:34 AM GMT on October 04, 2012
 Quoting nymore:I must update, it is now up to 2 feet of snow.MORE PROOF OF AGWT OR PROOF OF NOTHING? Obviously, the answer is "Proof of nothing."If you know anything about statistics (and I only know a little bit), a single data point is meaningless.Are you just being snarky, or are you unaware of the relationship between weather, climate, and the fundamentals of global warming hypotheses? AGW/CC "theories" posit that weather extremes and new weather-related records will occur with increasing frequency, but also that individual weather events cannot be easily tied to AGW/CC. Scientists are beginning to see relationships as data accumulates, and we "regular folks" will see the long term changes over time. In fact, many past models underestimated the climate changes we are now seeing. New models are tested by trying to predict past events by running them with data available before the event. Plus, there are previously unknown factors and poorly understood large-scale environmental processes that scientists are desperately trying to recognize, analyze, understand, and model. Another difficulty is "connecting the dots." By that, I mean the difficulty of looking at changes in the biosphere, including the atmosphere, and oceanic and land biomes and subsystems, and separating out normal changes that would occur in a relatively stable climate.Note: I studied "Biomes and Subsystems" under Professor (now Emeritus) Arnold Schultz at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970's. "[Professor Schultz] is a well-loved mentor of the College of Natural Resources (CNR) and one of the founding fathers of conservation and resource studies at UC Berkeley." I graduated with one of the earliest classes of the CNR program at U.C. Berkeley, where I learned to appreciate the complexity of the world we live in, and how to think critically about environmental/ecological issues.
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103. nymore
11:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 I must update, it is now up to 2 feet of snow.MORE PROOF OF AGWT OR PROOF OF NOTHING?
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102. Xulonn
11:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting TomballTXPride:The models had suggested that we may see a summer without — with very little ice by the end of this century.” This all sounds very alarming to the uninformed viewer. And even more alarming to the truly informed and knowledgeable!
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101. Patrap
10:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 The Lurker thesis is well under way and guess who has the lead "dissonance" Highlight part in it ?One guess, ...they Guard sheep.: )
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100. nymore
9:53 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 More proof of AGWT. Around a foot or more of snow is expected in Minnesota starting tonight.img src=" Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 3:30 PM CDT on October 03, 2012 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDTFriday... The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a WinterStorm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow... which is in effectfrom 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDT Friday. The Winter Storm Watch isno longer in effect.* Timing... rain is expected to change to snow on Thursday morning... and continue into Friday morning. The snow may be heavy at times. * Winds... north winds will increase on Thursday and become 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts... continuing into early Friday morning. * Visibilities... may be near zero within falling and blowing snow. * Snow accumulations... 10 to 12 inches are possible.* Wind chill values... in the mid to upper teens.* Other impacts... heavy snow on tree branches and power lines may cause them to break.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weatherconditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snoware forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in anemergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... andwater in your vehicle in case of an emergency.">Actually is snowed the first time 2 or 3 weeks ago.
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99. Neapolitan
7:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting TomballTXPride:Daisyworld ~ Does that apply to comment 57 as well?Since that individual choose to attack the blogger instead of trying to rebut the piece, we'll try it again.See, another problem with cherry-picking--in this case a comment--is that in doing so, one misses vital necessary information--in this case earlier comments. If you'd taken the time to look back a bit, you'd doubtless have noticed that the person to whom I responded in #57 is in the habit of driving by and dumping little one-line denialist comments out the window, not in pursuit of a scientific discussion but simply to stir the pot with some debunked point. (See comments #46 & #47) It has proven fruitless to respond to him, as those responses will just be wasted. So, instead, I simply noted that I hope he's getting paid for quantity, not quality; if it's the latter, the poor guy's going to starve to death. ;-)Of course, the confusion displayed in comment #57 (that is, his inability to distinguish between the Arctic and Antarctica) has been addressed countless times in the past few weeks, including several times by me. If he truly is interested--which, again, he definitely is not--three seconds Googling would give him all the answers he would want.The climate is changing and the earth is warming more rapidly than at any time in human history, and it's doing so mostly if not wholly because of our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. Any conversation that begins by denying either of those concrete facts is not worthy of attention, if you ask me. So let's move on from there, shall we? Thanks!
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98. RevElvis
6:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Methane Emissions Can Be Traced Back to Roman TimesScienceDaily.comEmissions of the greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere can be traced back thousands of years in the Greenland ice sheet. Using special analytical methods, researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute, among others, have determined how much methane originates from natural sources and how much is due to human activity. The results go all the way back to Roman times and up to the present, where more than half of the emissions are now human-made.The results are published in the scientific journal, Nature.Methane is an important greenhouse gas, which today is partly emitted from natural sources and partly from human activities. The emissions from natural sources varies due to the climate variations. For example, bacteria in wetlands release methane and less is emitted in dry periods as the wetlands shrink.Methane emissions are peaking now"We have analysed the methane composition more than 2,000 years back in time. We can see that already 2,100 years ago during Roman times, some cultures were spreading out and burning large amounts of wood for fuel in furnaces to work with metals that required intense heat to process. But the level was still low. The next significant increase was during the Middle Ages around 1,000 years ago. It was a warm period and it was dry so there were presumably many forest fires that emitted methane while the wetlands dwindled and reduced methane emissions from that source. We also find emissions from natural forest fires and deforestation during the so-called 'Little Ice Age' (between 1350 and 1850), which was a very cold and dry period, Emissions of methane increased dramatically from around 1800, when the industrial revolution took off and where there occurred a large increase in population," explains Thomas Blunier.
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97. theshepherd
3:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Daisyworld:I think you just made my point.Spin it as you wish.Another typical demonstration of what happens here.Don't shoot the messenger. All I did was read your present and past posts and notice your glaring propensities.You can have the last word.I'm not going to play dodge ball with you.
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95. Daisyworld
3:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting theshepherd:Get real, DaisyI think what you were really trying to say is:OssqssOnly those of us who I like can attack anyone.The proof of that is...well...the truth.I think you just made my point.
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94. Daisyworld
3:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
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93. Neapolitan
12:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Ossqss:Folks, keep an eye on this guy. He posts images he creates as evidence of that of which he cannot copy. Just sayin, the image is from imageshack, not NOAA or any other accredited place. Here are the tracks from it!Sound familiar?Of course, those able to read (and my apologies to those who apparently can't) will have seen that that image comes directly from the Science Direct article to which I linked immediately prior.One can almost smell the frustration of the denialistas. As they become increasingly aware that they've got nothing scientific on which to stand, they resort to ad hominems and the posting of blather from discredited Big Energy-funded "scientists" such as Willie Soon. But as irritating as such behavior is, it at least tells us just how desperate they've become, no?
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92. theshepherd
12:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Daisyworld:Ossqss,You are engaging in one of the classic fallacies of logic and rhetoric: Attacking the arguer and not the argument. If you have something of substance to add to the discussion, then do so. Otherwise, your antagonism isn't very productive, and brings nothing helpful to this forum.Get real, DaisyI think what you were really trying to say is:OssqssOnly those of us who I like can attack anyone.The proof of that is...well...the truth.
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90. OldLeatherneck
12:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting TomballTXPride:Antarctic Ice is growing, Folks.em>Just like it does every year. The sun is now moving south and this Antarctic Sea ice will start melting again, just like it does every year.Quoting TomballTXPride:It all balances out.The Arctic Ocean Sea Ice is not going to recover. It's foolish to say that that what is happening in the Antarctic balances what is happening in the Arctic. Quoting TomballTXPride:No need to hit the panic button and jump.The panic button should have been hit years ago!!
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86. Ossqss
4:02 AM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Daisyworld:Ossqss,You are engaging in one of the classic fallacies of logic and rhetoric: Attacking the arguer and not the argument. If you have something of substance to add to the discussion, then do so. Otherwise, your antagonism isn't very productive, and brings nothing helpful to this forum.So, cleaning up rubbish means nothing? What is it exactly you bring to the table with such a comment? Nightall>
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85. Ossqss
3:58 AM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting RevElvis:Melting Sea Ice Has Changed Life in GreenlandMotherJones Video
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84. Daisyworld
3:51 AM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Ossqss:Folks, keep an eye on this guy. He posts images he creates as evidence of that of which he cannot copy. Just sayin, your image is from imageshack, not NOAA or any other accredited place. Here are the tracks from it! http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/9718/14f8dbc09 47444c996e7739.pngSound familiar? Ossqss,You are engaging in one of the classic fallacies of logic and rhetoric: Attacking the arguer and not the argument. If you have something of substance to add to the discussion, then do so. Otherwise, your antagonism isn't very productive, and brings nothing helpful to this forum.
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83. Ossqss
3:26 AM GMT on October 03, 2012
 Quoting Neapolitan:Interesting that you'd highlight that article--which, by the way, doesn't say what you think it says--while ignoring the one that speaks of rapid 20th century glacial loss. Here's an image:Now, as ice disappears, there's less of it to melt every year. (I'm sure the same silly denialist argument will made about the Arctic; in, say, 2025, denialists will proclaim, "Only 6 million square kilometers of sea ice melted this year, but back in 2012 that was eleven million. So much for global warming! Hyuk-hyuk-hyuk...")On a larger not, and as someone else has already mentioned: what relevance does your comment have?Folks, keep an eye on this guy. He posts images he creates as evidence of that of which he cannot copy. Just sayin, the image is from imageshack, not NOAA or any other accredited place. Here are the tracks from it! http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/9718/14f8dbc09 47444c996e7739.pngSound familiar?
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81. RevElvis
1:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
 From Start to Finish: Why We Won and How We Are Losing Truth-Out.org (Op-Ed)Paleoanthropologist Ian Tattersall ends his recent book about the "Masters of the Planet" with such reflection:[A]part from death, the only ironclad rule of human experience has been the Law of Unintended Consequences. Our brains are extraordinary mechanisms, and they have allowed us to accomplish truly amazing things; but we are still only good at anticipating — or at least of paying attention to — highly immediate consequences. We are notably bad at assessing risk, especially long-term risk. We believe crazy things, such as that human sacrifice will propitiate the gods, or that people are kidnapped by space aliens, or that endless economic expansion is possible in a finite world, or that if we just ignore climate change we won’t have to face its consequences. Or at the very least, we act as if we do (p. 227).We humans routinely believe crazy things, but are we a crazy species? Does the big brain that allowed us to master the planet have a basic design flaw? Given the depth of the social and ecological crises we face — or, in some cases, refuse to face — should we be worried about whether we can slip out of the traps we have created?We may not be driving ourselves into extinction, but we are creating conditions that make our future frightening. Our symbolic reasoning capabilities, impressive as they may be, are not yet developed to the point where we can cope with the problems our symbolic reasoning capabilities have created. And, what’s worse, those capabilities seem to make it difficult for us collectively to face reality — call that the delusional revolution, perhaps the scariest revolution of them all. The message transmitted and/or reinforced by the culture’s dominant institutions (government, corporations, media, universities) seems to be: (1) it’s not as bad as some people think, but; (2) even if it is that bad, we’ll invent our way out of the problems, and (3) if we can’t invent our way out we’ll just pretend the problems aren’t really problems. In short: deny, minimize, ignore.
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80. RevElvis
12:36 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
 Melting Sea Ice Has Changed Life in GreenlandMotherJones Video
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79. RevElvis
12:24 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
 Forget Baconpocalypse—Fishageddon Will Be Worse MotherJones.comWhile editors and bloggers gorged on a trumped-up baconpocalypse, they largely ignored a story with real implications for global food security: a new report on how how climate change will sharply reduce the productivity of the oceans, particularly in the global south, where hundreds of millions of people rely on the sea as a primary source of protein. The report, by American NGO Oceana, ranks the nations that are most vulnerable to a reduction in available fish brought on by climate change—that is, nations that will struggle to replace dwindling fish stocks with other foods. To create its rankings, Oceana looked for countries with low per capita incomes, high population growth rates, and high rates of malnutrition, and then looked at how climate change would effect their access to wild-caught fish.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
78. RevElvis
6:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
 High-Arctic Heat Tops 1,800-Year High, Says Study; Modern Spike Outmatches Naturally Driven 'Medieval Warm Period'ScienceDaily.comThe naturally driven Medieval Warm Period, from about 950 to 1250, has been a favorite time for people who deny evidence that humans are heating the planet with industrial greenhouse gases. But the climate reconstruction from Svalbard casts new doubt on that era's reach, and undercuts skeptics who argue that current warming is also natural. Since 1987, summers on Svalbard have been 2 degrees to 2.5 degrees C (3.6 to 4.5 degrees F) hotter than they were there during warmest parts of the Medieval Warm Period, the study found.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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