Climate, compost, and those plastic cups: Sustainability (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

Climate, compost, and those plastic cups: Sustainability and Climate Change (1)

This past week I was at the county fair. There were science exhibits, and a display on climate-wise gardening. There was a lot of attention to garbage; it was a zero-waste event. There was an exhibit and lecture on irrigation, with, of course, some discussion of stressed and contentious water resources. After the fair I took a one-day course on grasslands and the reclamation of prairie land. There are many places where climate and climate policy fit into this mix of small activities.

I want to start with the idea of “sustainability.” When I moved to University of Michigan in 2005, I was introduced, seriously, to the idea of sustainability. I kept asking whether or not there was an accepted, single definition of sustainability. The short answer was, “no.” If you look around you find a couple of notions that are always included in the definition of sustainability. First, there is the idea that the way that we use resources to maintain our standard of living does not preclude the ability of future generations to do the same. Second, there is the idea that all of the pieces fit together into a whole. A popular notion of sustainability is “think globally, act locally”, or conveyed by the company Seventh Generation, which strives, “To inspire a revolution that nurtures the health of the next seven generations.” On a whole different scale is Ceres, which “leads a national coalition of investors, environmental organizations and other public interest groups working with companies to address sustainability challenges such as global climate change and water scarcity.” Here are some links to definitions and discussions of sustainability: @ Washington State University, Wikipedia, Environmental Protection Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

It is obvious that our climate and climate change fit into the notion of sustainability, but it is not an easy relation to understand, describe and to make actionable. More directly related to our ability to sustain ourselves are population, energy, energy consumption, and standard of living. Historically we have used easy resources, because they are easy. For many centuries we were reliant upon wood for fuel and building. We cleared forests for agriculture. During the 1800s the United States was largely deforested. It became self evident that forests and whale oil were not going to support a growing population, an industrial society, and a growing economy. (A nice history of energy, and interestingly Dolly Sods Wilderness.) These sources of energy were replaced with coal and oil. All of these sources of energy have obvious, direct environmental consequences. There are also some environmental consequences that are not quite as obvious and direct; namely, those consequences due to the release of carbon dioxide.

The wealthy economies and standard of living that followed from industrialization become the priority; hence, easy energy becomes a priority. The obvious and direct environmental consequences, ultimately, become something that we try to deal with – for example, The Clean Air Act. We seek a balance of environmental pollution and industrialization – a contentious balance. Climate change is an environmental problem that is not as obvious and not as direct. It is problem where it takes, compared with a human life, a significant amount of time for the signal of climate change, of global warming, to emerge over the natural variability that we are used to dealing with. In order to mitigate climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions our “easy” choice is to quit burning fossils fuels, but that is not an easy choice to make if we humans exercise our prerogative of pursuit of high standards of living and population growth. To address climate change requires us to look out beyond the length of our lives and to see the value that a sustainable environment will have to those who follow us.

There was a couple of years ago a paper in Nature entitled, “A safe operating space for humanity”, by Johan Rockstrom and many colleagues. Here is Figure 1 from that paper.



Figure 1: “The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded.” From “A safe operating space for humanity”, by Johan Rockstrom and many colleagues (Nature, 2009)

This figure conveys the integrated nature of sustainability on the planetary scale. An easy example to point out – climate change is, primarily, a problem of carbon dioxide emission, as is ocean acidification. Hence, from an integrated perspective, the two cannot be looked at in isolation. But looking around the circle, all of these environmental issues are related. They are all related to population, energy, consumption, standards of living and robust economies.

I started this entry, this series, with a very mundane event – being at the fair. At the fair we talked about water, and sure climate change might be important to water, but it does not seem as immediately important as the cities’ thirst for water and the purchase of agricultural water rights (Thirsty Cities, Dry Farms). This interface of climate change on this local level is real, it is contentious, and it is substantive. Yes, I have started another series, and in it I will look at “think globally, act locally.” Yet another problem of many scales that must be addressed as we adapt to global warming.

r




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Neo- Sorry NYC did not set an official record as your post insinuates. You can pick up your parting gifts on the way out.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
Hummm, what did you all do to Neo? He is missing and that is indicative of one of two things. You embarrassed him, or he got fired.

You all need to be nicer, for real!

Ya!,,,,, I know,,,,, I have no room to talk, but think about it?

Without a dictating view or question of such, this place would be quite borging, no ?

Perhaps we need a refresher ~


Next request, stop giving free StarBucks coupons to CB! :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8222
I see Dr. Masters have made a little error in his blog hopefully it was not intentional NYC did not set an all time record JFK did. JFK records have been kept since 1948 records at Central Park the official records by the way have been kept since 1869. The official record is 8.28 inches on Sept. 23 1882. Also I see according to NOAA parts of central Texas have received 125% of their normal rainfall in the past 30 days at least it is a start.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
Quoting JBastardi:
Yet another study showing that increasing temps decrease severe weather:

Link


You obviously did not read the paper. They could not make a determination of storm severity, only the number of storms. So you can not make the statements, based on this paper, that

1) Increasing temps decrease severe weather
2) That is was a global effect - the paper only focused on the Mediterranean.

Took me a whole three minutes to scan the paper and to make the determination that the paper does not deal with severity. What's the excuse for your laziness?
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And the southern hemisphere records keep falling.

Even NPR had a report on how the ski areas had to close due too much snow, and in Wellington? Metservice indicates once in fifty year cold event.Auckland once in eighty years. Hows that AGW? Brrrr!








NEW Zealand hit by another snow storm, but ski reports fail to take advantage as many ski lifts and airports closed.

The country - which experienced a disappointing start to the ski season - has suffered its second snow storm in as many months.

However, the snow has blanketed large parts of the country, closing roads, airports and schools.

The South Island has taken the brunt of the storm, but the capital Wellington, at the foot of the North Island, has also had its heaviest snowfall in 40 years.

Snow is even predicted to fall on the hills around Auckland, 660km to the north, in what the MetService is describing as a once-in-a-lifetime storm.

The Remarkables and Cardrona have Tweeted over 30cm of fresh snow. However, severe winds have forced many resorts to close lifts and routes.



In July, another snow storm trapped hundreds of skiers and blocked main highways across the country.


Link
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I do not believe that any culture other than hunter-gatherer can achieve sustainibility, and they can only do so by high infant mortality. People reproduce without regard to resources.

In the 1940's we were served milk with school lunches in glass tumblers, delivered to the school in quart glass bottles. The energy required to wash and sterilize and return the bottles to the bottling plant exceeded in terms of petroleum the energy equivalent of plastic containers. Also, typhoid could be spread by reuse of glass but not by virgin PE. So those throwaway plastic cups became common -

R.E.Olds, Henry Ford and others envisioned a low-impact motorized vehicle to go from outlying farms and ranches into town to buy supplies. This morphed into multilane freeways choked with luxury and performance status symbols which support, along with a hugh and difuse infastructure, a large share of our national economy. The auto industry and its military spinoffs also enabled the waging of war on nations far removed from our borders. Sustainabe? When pigs fly.

And things keep getting worse. I believe that the inertia of the collective of humanity will force a solution: mass dieoff and near extinction of humanity, followed by recovery in a world that has no exploitable natural resources, thus beginning a new and unending "primitive" phase of sustainable human existance.
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Quoting sullivanweather:


Well, the opening of another cold ocean basin would, in effect, act as another carbon sink. But these algae blooms don't come nearly close enough to sequestering the amount of carbon dioxide emitted over the course of a year.


Agree. Surface area way too small to compensate for an entire planetary output. I do wonder though if there could be an algal sequestering solution or partial solution.

1. Engineered algae for high efficiency sequestering
2. Deployment in other oceanic areas
3. Self destruct limiters on minimum CO2 required to sustain viability (when mission done it dies)
4. Temperature sensitivity to allow for existence only in specific thermal oceanic temperature ranges, ie 50 - 60F or something else to forestall unwanted expansion



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Quoting rod2635:


The algal bloom. Not versed in aquatic biology. But do wonder how much CO2 uptake might occur from this considerable biomass. It would be an interesting side effect of polar ice diminunation if the combination of open sea, long continuous summer sun and potential Arctic nutrient levels produced a counter equilibrium effect of a carbon sink.


Well, the opening of another cold ocean basin would, in effect, act as another carbon sink. But these algae blooms don't come nearly close enough to sequestering the amount of carbon dioxide emitted over the course of a year.
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Quoting sullivanweather:



If we have a compaction event (very likely) from now till this time next month chances are 2011 will pass 2007 by roughly 250,000 sq km for the lowest extent ever. Since the 2007 daily low extent was 4,254,531 sq. km. it's very possible that 2011 could dip below 4,000,000 sq.km. That will make big headlines.

The condition of the sea-ice in the high arctic is one you would normally see in regions that see August/September seasonal ice melt. Just look at this picture below.


(Hi Resolution image)

What's quite noticeable to anyone who's ever tracked sea-ice conditions in the arctic is the sheer lack of any ice floes.

Of other interest in the arctic...

The incredible algae explosion in the Barents Sea. Biggest I've ever noted.



(the other half)



Rare clear sky shot over the Barents for this amazing event.

Also...



Centered in this image is the last remaining sea-ice in the Baffin Bay but if you look closely you will see something that's been making headlines for a year now..

The major calving event from the Petermann glacier last year produced a massive ice island which is clearly visible in this satellite image a whole year later in the lower left portion of the image.
(hi Resolution image)

Also note the large iceberg at the entrance of the Northwest Passage.

Lots going on in the arctic this summer.


The algal bloom. Not versed in aquatic biology. But do wonder how much CO2 uptake might occur from this considerable biomass. It would be an interesting side effect of polar ice diminunation if the combination of open sea, long continuous summer sun and potential Arctic nutrient levels produced a counter equilibrium effect of a carbon sink.
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Quoting iceagecoming:




South Africa is slammed with 1 in 50 years frigid temps.





Cold front bring snow to Joburg

Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

15 August 2011 | Sapa
Not rated yet.

JOHANNESBURG - Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

The snowfall excited local residents as they updated their status on Facebook and Twitter.

"Incredible weather in Joburg, snow, rain, sleet, hail... keep the pictures coming where you are," Radio 702's Aki Anastasiou tweeted.

A Facebook status read: "It is snowing here in Ormonde! Our whole office is playing outside."

South African Weather Services forecaster Jan Vermeulen said that he had not received any reports about the snow as yet.

He said the icy conditions over most parts of South Africa were caused by cut-off low over the Northern Cape.

Snowfall was also expected in the western high ground of KwaZulu-Natal, the southern escarpment of Mpumalanga and in the north-eastern part of the Free State.

"The snow falls could vary from about four to five centimetres," he said.

About 10cm of snow and 25mm of rain was expected in Volksrust, Mpumalanga.

"We don't expect snowfall tomorrow [Tuesday], it should be cleared by then," he said.

The N3 highway, and all alternate routes at Van Reenen's Pass between the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal were re-opened after snowfall had caused the roads to close early on Monday.

"We have re-opened, but the roads are still wet," N3 Toll Concession company spokeswoman Andy Visser said.

"We are asking all motorists to drive slowly and keep a safe following distance."

Icy rain began falling in the area, during the early hours of the morning and had later turned to snow.

Visser said snow continued to fall at midday, with breaks of icy rain.

Emergency services, police, military and car towing services helped to move all the cars and trucks that were stuck at the path.



Harbinger of Northern Hemisphere winter to come?
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South Africa is slammed with 1 in 50 years frigid temps.





Cold front bring snow to Joburg

Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

15 August 2011 | Sapa
Not rated yet.

JOHANNESBURG - Light snow fell over Johannesburg on Monday afternoon during as another cold front baffled people across the country.

The snowfall excited local residents as they updated their status on Facebook and Twitter.

"Incredible weather in Joburg, snow, rain, sleet, hail... keep the pictures coming where you are," Radio 702's Aki Anastasiou tweeted.

A Facebook status read: "It is snowing here in Ormonde! Our whole office is playing outside."

South African Weather Services forecaster Jan Vermeulen said that he had not received any reports about the snow as yet.

He said the icy conditions over most parts of South Africa were caused by cut-off low over the Northern Cape.

Snowfall was also expected in the western high ground of KwaZulu-Natal, the southern escarpment of Mpumalanga and in the north-eastern part of the Free State.

"The snow falls could vary from about four to five centimetres," he said.

About 10cm of snow and 25mm of rain was expected in Volksrust, Mpumalanga.

"We don't expect snowfall tomorrow [Tuesday], it should be cleared by then," he said.

The N3 highway, and all alternate routes at Van Reenen's Pass between the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal were re-opened after snowfall had caused the roads to close early on Monday.

"We have re-opened, but the roads are still wet," N3 Toll Concession company spokeswoman Andy Visser said.

"We are asking all motorists to drive slowly and keep a safe following distance."

Icy rain began falling in the area, during the early hours of the morning and had later turned to snow.

Visser said snow continued to fall at midday, with breaks of icy rain.

Emergency services, police, military and car towing services helped to move all the cars and trucks that were stuck at the path.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xandra:

Wow! I am impressed. You have found an article by Mr Cherry Picking. Congratulation! ;)

I wonder who is most incompetent, Joe ”the worst professional long-range forecaster on Earth” Bastardi or Steve ”Mr Cherry Picking” Goddard? Hm… hm…

Link Link Link

So,you are saying the article is false? I am shocked to the core! Satellite data for ice caps in the northern hemisphere go back how far then? It is what it is.
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1499
But what will it take to get people to start caring about the next 7 generations when they;re more worried about who's getting kicked off of Dancing with the Stars this week?
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Quoting overwash12:
The only problem I have with all this talk about the north pole ice caps meltingLinkis the records don't go back very far!

Wow! I am impressed. You have found an article by Mr Cherry Picking. Congratulation! ;)

I wonder who is most incompetent, Joe ”the worst professional long-range forecaster on Earth” Bastardi or Steve ”Mr Cherry Picking” Goddard? Hm… hm…

Link Link Link

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Quoting sullivanweather:


Actually, it had more to do with a cold mid-level system moving into an area of strong low-level convergence coupled with light winds aloft in an area where tropical moisture lies overhead, of which happens quite regularly. The statistical parameters of this heavy rainfall event match up quite well with events in the past in terms of precipitable water, warm cloud height, etc.

Interesting. Good to know!
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Well isn't that the point though? More heat = more evaporation = more water vapor = more fuel for extreme weather? I mean the statistical occurrence for these kinds of storms has been going up for some time hasn't it? And also look at how centralized it is. You pointed out that you only got .44" of rain 75 mi outside of New York. That's another weird thing that's been going on lately, most of these storms instead of looking like big green blogs with smaller areas of yellow, orange, and red, look more like a red rash of small rain clouds that just dump rain down leaving a deluge in one area and almost nothing in an area near by. I dunno seems like a change when I look at the radar now at least.


Actually, it had more to do with a cold mid-level system moving into an area of strong low-level convergence coupled with light winds aloft in an area where tropical moisture lies overhead, of which happens quite regularly. The statistical parameters of this heavy rainfall event match up quite well with events in the past in terms of precipitable water, warm cloud height, etc.
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Quoting cyclonebuster:
3rd place now.



It only goes back to 1979,that's a blip on the radar screen.
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1499
Quoting sullivanweather:
Neapolitan,

This goes back to my point about using weather events to insinuate something. Because you end your statement with "Just a coincidence, I'm sure."

Well, yeah. That's exactly what I was getting at. It is. So while you may have the fact on your side that Kennedy Airport broke its single day rainfall record and go on and on about how 100% correct you are I can point out several other circumstances in just the last several years of equally impressive rainfall totals (and in most instances, much more impressive) that broke records for their respective locations.


Well isn't that the point though? More heat = more evaporation = more water vapor = more fuel for extreme weather? I mean the statistical occurrence for these kinds of storms has been going up for some time hasn't it? And also look at how centralized it is. You pointed out that you only got .44" of rain 75 mi outside of New York. That's another weird thing that's been going on lately, most of these storms instead of looking like big green blogs with smaller areas of yellow, orange, and red, look more like a red rash of small rain clouds that just dump rain down leaving a deluge in one area and almost nothing in an area near by. I dunno seems like a change when I look at the radar now at least.
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Snowfall traps motorists
By NZPA, NZ Herald staff and Jospeh Aldridge
7:42 PM Sunday Aug 14, 2011






How's your weekend weather?
Send us your weather photos, video
Snow is predicted to settle to sea level in Southland, Canterbury and Wellington. File photo / Alan Gibson
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Snow is predicted to settle to sea level in Southland, Canterbury and Wellington. File photo / Alan Gibson

Snow falling across the country has trapped about 100 people in their cars north of Wellington and made roads impassable around the capital and Dunedin.

A polar blast sweeping up the country, this afternoon brought snow to the South and lower North Island and conditions are expected to get worse overnight.

WELLINGTON

Central police communications Inspector Mike Coleman said about 100 people had been trapped in their cars on the Rimutaka Hill Rd, north of Wellington.

"We're going to rescue them and we're just trying to reassure people to stay in their vehicles rather than get out and walk," he told NZPA tonight.

Emergency services would likely use a four wheeled-drive vehicle and snow plough to clear the road and rescue the motorists, he said.

The road had been closed and snow was still falling in the area, he said.

Snowfall appeared to be starting to ease in other parts of Wellington, Mr Coleman said.

Earlier, snow had settled in Wellington's northern suburbs, including Churton Park, Newlands, Karori, and there was flooding in Kilbirnie.

Police had received several reports of breakdowns and minor accidents, but no major accidents, he said.

Police advised motorists to stay off the roads in Wellington, particularly in the northern suburbs, where conditions were icy, Mr Coleman said.

The motorway was still drivable, but people had got into difficulty there too.

Anyone who became stuck in a vehicle not on the Rimutaka Hill Rd, would need to decide whether to stay in their car or venture out if they had warm clothing, he said.

Several state highways had been closed in the lower South Island because of snow and ice, police said.

Motorists should ensure they can complete a journey before starting it and drive to the conditions.

DUNEDIN

Dunedin police told NZPA there had been a few minor crashes and roads were getting icy and impassable.

It was probably not worthwhile driving in the hill suburbs, police said late this afternoon.

Anyone who did not have to drive should stay home.

It had been snowing on and off all day, not the worst snowfall the city had seen but it did not take much to make the roads dangerous.

"It's probably going to get worse as the night closes in and things start to freeze."

Senior Sergeant Anton Tenhove, of Southern police communications, said late this afternoon there had been reports of snow in Dunedin and other places in the South Island, but no major issues.

It had snowed in Christchurch for about half an hour, but become fine again, he told NZPA.

"We're expecting it to get worse overnight."

The MetService said a polar outbreak was bringing snow to southern and central New Zealand.

It forecast significant accumulations in Fiordland, south of Te Anau, Southland and Otago.

Snow would fall to low levels in Canterbury, parts of Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa, Horowhenua Kapiti Coast, Manawatu, Wanganui, Taihape and Taranaki - with significant amounts expected to accumulate by midnight tomorrow.

Heavy snow was likely to last until Tuesday in Canterbury, Marlborough and the Lower North Island, but then ease further south, the MetServive said.

This afternoon it tweeted that the temperature in Wellington dropped 8degC to 5degC in half an hour.

CHRISTCHURCH

Christchurch police urged people to check conditions before travelling during the next few days and drive to the conditions.

"We are asking the public to stay at home and delay all non-essential travel if they do not think they can travel safely in their local conditions," said Inspector Al Stewart, Canterbury road policing manager.

Invercargill police said there had been some snow flurries and hail, but no major issues.

HIGH / MEDIUM RISK AREAS

The MetService had issued road snowfall warnings for the Desert Rd and Rimutaka Hill Rd in the North Island, and Lewis Pass, Arthurs Pass, Lindis Pass, Porters Pass and Milford Rd in the South Island.

Snow was forecast to fall across the North and South Island to levels not seen for decades, Weather Watch forecaster Phillip Duncan said.

He said there was a high risk of snow settling in:

Christchurch, Ashburton, Dunedin, Wellington's higher suburbs, Upper Hutt, Palmerston North, Queenstown, Oamaru, Kaikoura, Gore, Balclutha, Alexandra, Waiouru, Ohakune, Stratford, Hawera, Taupo, Taihape, Masterton and Eketahuna.

There was a medium risk of snow flurries and possible settling snow in:

Invercargill, Timaru, Wellington's CBD, Lower Hutt, Wainuiomata, Kapiti Coast, Levin, Wanganui, Napier, Hastings, New Plymouth, Murapara, Hawera, Nelson region to sea level, Dannevirke, Carterton, Greytown, Rotorua's higher suburbs and Blenheim.

Snow hits Dunedin, arrives in Christchurch

For the first time in memory for many people snow is being forecast to sea level across a number of North Island and South Island centres, including three of our biggest cities.

Wellington's higher suburbs, Christchurch and Dunedin are considered to be high risk areas that should see snow settling until Tuesday morning.

Snow has been falling in Dunedin and has now arrived in Christchurch, as a massive low works its way up the country.

Parts of Dunedin have received heavy snow today, while Queenstown was also hit.

Flurries are now being reported in Christchurch.

Invercargill has had a few flurries but so far our southern most city has avoided the bulk of the snow, WeatherWatch.co.nz is reporting.

Hail showers are popping up in many places right across the country - as far north as Auckland.

WeatherWatch.co.nz is forecasting snow as far north as Northland tomorrow, down to just a few hundred metres, and is likely to be heavier than the July snow storm.

Temperatures for tomorrow and Tuesday are forecast to be the coldest of the year, with the possibility of Wellington receiving snow down to sea level.

A dusting of snow is also expected to fall in Napier, Taupo and even Rotorua.

Weather Watch senior analyst Philip Duncan said the low-pressure system was one of the biggest he's ever seen.

"This set-up is something that you see only a few times in a lifetime.

"The highest risk area will be Wellington. There is a risk of snow settling to low levels in Wellington."

Duncan said heavy snow may close the Desert Road and State Highway 2 at the Rimutaka ranges.

"Motorists may find the only way they can drive to Wellington is through Taranaki," he said.

The storm will travel north in waves, Duncan said.

The first will pass over the North Island tonight and the second, more-serious blast will pass over on Tuesday night. People in Waikato and Auckland would possibly see snow on the mountain ranges in their areas, Duncan said.

"This is Auckland's best shot of getting snow.

"If this storm had formed more to the west, I have no doubt that snowflakes would be falling over Auckland. Freezing level will be similar to July. We don't expect the levels to be any lower, but there will be probably more snow."
By NZPA, NZ Herald staff and Jospeh Aldridge


"This set-up is something that you see only a few times in a lifetime.Can't say that for the heat in the North Hemisphere


Major polar blast to bring snow to the north
7:22 PM Friday Aug 12, 2011


Link
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Neapolitan- About the article in the Indianapolis newspaper that you selectively quote if you want to read my response you can go to the old blog and do so. I am sure you will find it on point. Look forward to hearing from you on it
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
Neapolitan- Let me see this is what you posted word for word last evening post #1120 "From an apparent thunderstorm caused microburst" and this from this morning post # 1667 "For any who missed it, here's the microburst that triggered the stage collapse in Indiana last evening". It was not a microburst as you claim but a gust front ahead of the storm that started south and west of the fairgrounds and continued for another 50 miles after striking the fairgrounds. While the first comment may have been a poor assumption on your part from your lack of knowledge of mid-western storms the second comment was just a lack of getting the actual facts. Never let the facts get in the way of an assumption. FWIW some people try to learn about weather from Dr. Masters blog and you giving false info does not help them
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
Neapolitan,

This goes back to my point about using weather events to insinuate something. Because you end your statement with "Just a coincidence, I'm sure."

Well, yeah. That's exactly what I was getting at. It is. So while you may have the fact on your side that Kennedy Airport broke its single day rainfall record and go on and on about how 100% correct you are I can point out several other circumstances in just the last several years of equally impressive rainfall totals (and in most instances, much more impressive) that broke records for their respective locations.
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№ 10
Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh-oh:

CAPIE hits record low

CAPIE stands for "Cryospheretoday Area Per IJIS Extent" (another more scientific term is 'compactness'), the index of which we collectively created last year that is regularly mentioned in the weekly SIE updates. I'll quote from last year's blog post that saw the birth of CAPIE, called Area vs Extent, to explain what CAPIE means and what it is useful for:

"It tells us something about how much the ice pack is spread out. When the pack gets compacted area and extent will come closer together. But in the melting season the gap gets greater. This is because ice is melting, gets spread out and melt ponds start to form."

If you look at the ice pack as a whole, the holes that form away from the edges are not counted as sea ice area, but they do get counted as sea ice extent. That's because for extent every grid cell that contains more than 15% ice is counted as 100% ice. In consequence area will always be lower than extent.

Because of the difference between the ways area and extent are calculated, we can divide the first by the second and this gives us a percentage that, especially in comparison to other years, tells us something about how much the ice pack is compacted or spreading out. If the ice spreads out, there will be more holes, area will drop faster than extent, and thus the area/extent ratio will drop. If the ice gets compacted by winds, holes will disappear, the difference between area and extent becomes smaller and the percentage goes up.

Well, due to a huge drop in CT sea ice area CAPIE has hit an all-time low: 57.39%. As can clearly be seen on our CAPIE graph:

Uh-oh

This is the yearly record low in previous years:

Aug. 16th 2005: 69.53%
Sept. 26th 2006: 67.69%
Aug. 19th 2007: 60.01%
Aug. 13th 2008: 59.57%
Aug. 16th 2009: 63.91%
Sept. 3rd 2010: 60.28%
Aug. 12th 2011: 57.39%

But I don't think this is just the ice pack spreading a lot. I think that in a significant part of the Arctic - the Pacific side to be exact (the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas) - the ice is...just melting away quite suddenly.

Arctic Sea Ice Blog entry...


I wonder why they use IARC-JAXA extent data and Cryosphere Today area data.

It's worth noting that when you use IARC-JAXA data for both extent and area you get about 79% for the area/extent ratio (IARC-JAXA data is located here and here; as a quick estimate I get 4.5/5.7 = about 79%). I also note that for the highest value on the list (Aug 16th, 2005) you provided comes in at about 83% when using only IARC-JAXA data (From the aforementioned sources: about 5/6 = about 83%). It's interesting that the difference between the 2005 and 2011 dates appears much less significant using only IARC-JAXA data. I think it's probably best to use the same measurement for both extent and area for this metric to be meaningful.

Edited: specified that the 83% value comes from IARC-JAXA area/extent.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. They assumed their lush resources were infinite, and that a supernatural god--Makemake--would always provide. Silly, huh? Kinda like a governor declaring days of prayer for his profoundly drought-stricken state....


Another goodie is the 'Cargo Cults' of the 40's.
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Quoting sullivanweather:



If we have a compaction event (very likely) from now till this time next month chances are 2011 will pass 2007 by roughly 250,000 sq km for the lowest extent ever. Since the 2007 daily low extent was 4,254,531 sq. km. it's very possible that 2011 could dip below 4,000,000 sq.km. That will make big headlines.

The condition of the sea-ice in the high arctic is one you would normally see in regions that see August/September seasonal ice melt. Just look at this picture below.


(Hi Resolution image)

What's quite noticeable to anyone who's ever tracked sea-ice conditions in the arctic is the sheer lack of any ice floes.

Of other interest in the arctic...

The incredible algae explosion in the Barents Sea. Biggest I've ever noted.



(the other half)



Rare clear sky shot over the Barents for this amazing event.

Also...



Centered in this image is the last remaining sea-ice in the Baffin Bay but if you look closely you will see something that's been making headlines for a year now..

The major calving event from the Petermann glacier last year produced a massive ice island which is clearly visible in this satellite image a whole year later in the lower left portion of the image.
(hi Resolution image)

Also note the large iceberg at the entrance of the Northwest Passage.

Lots going on in the arctic this summer.

Those are amazing pictures; thanks for posting them. I've read some science blogs referring to much of the present ice extent as "slush".
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15333
Quoting sullivanweather:
Really? Rainiest day ever?

Just in the previous 5 years there's been similar rainfall events. More widespread rainfall events where more locations received much more rain.

Your 'rainiers' are only somewhat impressive but I've seen bigger.

As an aside, 75 miles outside of NYC, we've only received 0.44" thus far with this event.

Yes, rainiest day ever. Really. Please note I said, "...parts of the northeast"; I didn't say, "Every spot in the northeast". I'm sure there have been bigger for some places; for others, this is, indeed, the rainiest day ever. For examples--and this is one of many:

000
SXUS71 KOKX 142140
RERJFK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...ALL TIME RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A NEW ALL TIME DAILY RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 7.60 INCHES WAS SET
AT KENNEDY NY TODAY AS OF 5 PM. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 6.27
INCHES SET ON JUNE 30 1984.

THIS ALSO BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR AUGUST 14 OF 0.96 INCHES SET
IN 2008.

THIS RECORD REPORT WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL.

So, feel free to try tearing apart my statement, but it was 100% true, and 100% verifiable.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15333
Quoting Neapolitan:But I don't think this is just the ice pack spreading a lot. I think that in a significant part of the Arctic - the Pacific side to be exact (the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas) - the ice is...just melting away quite suddenly.



If we have a compaction event (very likely) from now till this time next month chances are 2011 will pass 2007 by roughly 250,000 sq km for the lowest extent ever. Since the 2007 daily low extent was 4,254,531 sq. km. it's very possible that 2011 could dip below 4,000,000 sq.km. That will make big headlines.

The condition of the sea-ice in the high arctic is one you would normally see in regions that see August/September seasonal ice melt. Just look at this picture below.


(Hi Resolution image)

What's quite noticeable to anyone who's ever tracked sea-ice conditions in the arctic is the sheer lack of any ice floes.

Of other interest in the arctic...

The incredible algae explosion in the Barents Sea. Biggest I've ever noted.



(the other half)



Rare clear sky shot over the Barents for this amazing event.

Also...



Centered in this image is the last remaining sea-ice in the Baffin Bay but if you look closely you will see something that's been making headlines for a year now..

The major calving event from the Petermann glacier last year produced a massive ice island which is clearly visible in this satellite image a whole year later in the lower left portion of the image.
(hi Resolution image)

Also note the large iceberg at the entrance of the Northwest Passage.

Lots going on in the arctic this summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only problem I have with all this talk about the north pole ice caps meltingLinkis the records don't go back very far!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1499
Really? Rainiest day ever?

Just in the previous 5 years there's been similar rainfall events. More widespread rainfall events where more locations received much more rain.

Your 'rainiers' are only somewhat impressive but I've seen bigger.

As an aside, 75 miles outside of NYC, we've only received 0.44" thus far with this event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh:

CAPIE hits record low

CAPIE stands for "Cryospheretoday Area Per IJIS Extent" (another more scientific term is 'compactness'), the index of which we collectively created last year that is regularly mentioned in the weekly SIE updates. I'll quote from last year's blog post that saw the birth of CAPIE, called Area vs Extent, to explain what CAPIE means and what it is useful for:

"It tells us something about how much the ice pack is spread out. When the pack gets compacted area and extent will come closer together. But in the melting season the gap gets greater. This is because ice is melting, gets spread out and melt ponds start to form."

If you look at the ice pack as a whole, the holes that form away from the edges are not counted as sea ice area, but they do get counted as sea ice extent. That's because for extent every grid cell that contains more than 15% ice is counted as 100% ice. In consequence area will always be lower than extent.

Because of the difference between the ways area and extent are calculated, we can divide the first by the second and this gives us a percentage that, especially in comparison to other years, tells us something about how much the ice pack is compacted or spreading out. If the ice spreads out, there will be more holes, area will drop faster than extent, and thus the area/extent ratio will drop. If the ice gets compacted by winds, holes will disappear, the difference between area and extent becomes smaller and the percentage goes up.

Well, due to a huge drop in CT sea ice area CAPIE has hit an all-time low: 57.39%. As can clearly be seen on our CAPIE graph:

Uh-oh

This is the yearly record low in previous years:

Aug. 16th 2005: 69.53%
Sept. 26th 2006: 67.69%
Aug. 19th 2007: 60.01%
Aug. 13th 2008: 59.57%
Aug. 16th 2009: 63.91%
Sept. 3rd 2010: 60.28%
Aug. 12th 2011: 57.39%

But I don't think this is just the ice pack spreading a lot. I think that in a significant part of the Arctic - the Pacific side to be exact (the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas) - the ice is...just melting away quite suddenly.

Arctic Sea Ice Blog entry...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15333
Well looky here?

Agenda 21 the series!

The soft sell assimilation version perhaps?

Here is the real one.

http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/res_agenda21_0 0.shtml

I call first dibs on the docking station next to 7 of 9 :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8222
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. They assumed their lush resources were infinite, and that a supernatural god--Makemake--would always provide. Silly, huh? Kinda like a governor declaring days of prayer for his profoundly drought-stricken state....
You have to look at the natural vegetation in Texas,especially western part of Texas. It doesn't give you the impression of a tropical rain forest,does it?
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1499
In other news, parts of the northeast--namely New York City and evirons--are having their rainiest day ever. Lido Beach (Nassau County) has seen 10.2" today; JFK 7.02"; La Guardia 5.19"; Sheepshead Bay 6.53". And there's still much more to come.

Just another coincidence, I'm sure...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15333
Easter Island,did they over populate?
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1499
On sustainability, I have but one image to convey,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the previous post:

Quoting Snowlover123:
Wow, I just read what Dr. Masters posted on his blog, and all I can say, is that it is inaccurate and alarmist.

The 12z Euro shows nothing of the sort for "record ice melt" as Dr. Jeff Masters claims. Such statements are not only inaccurate, but alarmist.

A beautiful -DA looks to develop, which should benefit the ice tremendously.



It is in no hurry to melt in "record paces" as Dr. Masters suggests, with 850 mb Temps at -10 Degrees C.

We should see some moderate melts in the next few days or so, and then rapid slowing in melt... contrary to what Dr. Masters suggests. We will see if an amateur can beat a Ph.D in Meteorology.

A quick update: melting has picked up in the past several days, just as Dr. Masters predicted. In fact, yesterday's loss of 127,187 square kilometers was the sixth greatest one-day loss this season (the top five were in the first two weeks of July). In the past 10 days alone, 816,406 square kilometers (315,216 square miles) of Arctic Sea ice were lost. That's an area the size of Texas and Wisconsin combined.

FWIW, from 2002 through 2010, ice extent has only failed to drop below 6,000,000 square kilometers once (in 2003). The average date for breaking the 6,000,000 barrier for the remaining years has been August 19th. This year that line was crossed on the 10th--and the pace is picking up.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15333

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