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Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 5:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2011

Drought, Fire, Flood: In the News

I have been writing about a variety of issues that I know are of interest to only a small number of people – U.S. science organizations, climate model software, and validation of climate models. I am going to move away from that arcane set of subjects for a while and spend a little more time in the climate mainstream. In this entry I want to touch on several subjects – starting with my garden.

My garden is in the flat land that is the western edge of the Great Plains, just east of Boulder, Colorado. Weather wise, it is a complex and difficult environment: more than 5000 feet above sea level, reliant upon water from the winter snow pack in the mountains, huge swings of hot and cold. In terms of climate types, I have seen region defined as both arid and semiarid. In the last week, we have had three or more inches of rain – hard driving rain with much lightning. There is water standing between the rows in the garden. The week of July 4 it was so dry there was a fire ban, and many firework fires.

Last summer in Boulder we had the Fourmile Fire, which burned thousands of acres and dozens of houses. With this rain, we have mudslides, rock slides and flash floods (Longmont Times Call). It all makes you appreciate the importance of the weather and the climate. Wet and dry. Hot and cold. ( 485 Billion Dollar Impact of Weather)

Boulder is a microcosm of what is going on in the U.S. There have been overwhelming fires in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. (Texas Fires). Dangerous drought and heat is spreading all across the southern half of the U.S. The dust storm last week in Arizona was reminiscent of pictures of the Dust Bowl. (more here). We were overwhelmed not long ago by the Mississippi River flooding. I have almost forgotten about the Missouri River flooding.



Figure 1: From KFAB Omaha News Radio. Photo Credit AP: Missouri River flood of Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant.

We see here the persistence of weather, climate, snow cover, drought, floods - one extreme after another. Jeff Master’s wrote an excellent summary of 2010-2011 as being a year of the most extreme events since 1816 – the year of Mount Tambora, a definitive and understood climate anomaly. Jeff writes that June 2011 continues the run. July 2011 is looking strong. It has been more than 300 months since there was a “below average” mean temperature. That’s a little compelling.

We are being handed one case study after another, where we see the impact that weather and climate have on us. And what is that impact? We see vulnerable people losing their homes, their crops. But where is the real threat? What does it mean that 213 counties in Texas are primary disaster areas?

Energy, economy, population – markets. We all know that the weather affects our economy. We rely on a stable climate. We see here and now an interconnected world, where extreme heat kills thousands and destroys crops and send food prices soaring. We see multiple billion dollar liens placed on our economy by floods, droughts, and tornadoes. These costs come at a time when economies all around the world are weak. There is a debt crisis, and the weather is demanding more loans. Right here and now the world is providing one climate disaster after another. The weather and climate are showing the need for more planning, for building resilience and recovery strategies. The weather and climate are revealing our vulnerabilities. While there is the obvious, the family fleeing the flood, the destroyed Joplin, Missouri hospital, there is also the accumulated impact felt through markets, higher food prices, emergency relief, things that will not be fixed, people relocating.

We are being offered lessons. I have written this far and not strung together the words “climate change” or mentioned “global warming.” This is the weather in our warming climate. The take away message from climate models, Be Prepared.

r

Rood on To the Point

Open Climate Modeling:

Greening of the Desert

Stickiness and Climate Models

Open Source Communities, What are the Problems?

A Culture of Checking


Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling:

Something New in the Past Decade?

The Scientific Organization

A Science-Organized Community

Validation and the Scientific Organization


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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the real comedy of today's climate debate is from all of the extreme droughts in history past, whether they reoccur in a pattern or not, are still being evaluated thousands of years after the last glacial maximum, but the last 3 decades have a definitive cause and effect..AGW through means of burning fossil fuel.

how about man redirecting rivers
constructing dams
removing forests to build structures
stopping fires prematurely and not letting nature take its course
lunar cycles
solar activity
plate tectonics
water and land displacement
mountain formation
ocean current fluctuations

nope, its the oil and coal companies, denialist





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Quoting atmoaggie:
Oh, that's inconvenient...

It appears that drought episodes aren't a new thing?


Who'd a thunk it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
№ 208
Quoting Neapolitan:

Looking at the two tells me--not for the first time--that Bastardi (and Goddard, too, as this was on his site today as well) are perhaps a bit too gullible to see the obvious flaws in their lame attempt at comparative climate. Please allow me:

1) The NYT graph shows only "extreme" to "exceptional" drought. On the other hand, the wishful thinking Goddard/Bastardi graph shows "moderate" drought, as well.

On that fact alone, the comparisons are as false as Washington's teeth. Strike 1.

2) The Goddard/Bastardi graph doesn't mention which Palmer Drought Index it's using. Is that the Palmer Z Index? The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI)? The Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI)? The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)? More to the point, do they even know the difference?

Strike 2.

3) The Goddard/Bastardi graph runs back to the 1900s, a time when--of course--the country simply wasn't as large as it is now. You know, fewer states. According to the NOAA numbers, the NYT graph is using data for all 50 states; the Goddard/Bastardi one can't be.

(Note; I ,em>may be wrong about the last one; I'm still looking onto it. But even if not, strikes 1 and 2 are enough to call an out.)

That's strike 3, I'm afraid. I imagine that's pretty frustrating. Looks like the phantom and the bodybuilder will need to go back to the Great Bottomless Well of Denialism to find something else. I wish them luck; they're going to need it.


The graph is part of testimony to Congress, as I linked, where within it lists NCDC as a source. It was first linked here by JBastardi, a commenter here who may be but most likely isn't Bastardi himself. Steven Goddard simply posted it on his blog, I linked the original source, which renders one of your "strikes" moot.

Even in the map from the NYTimes there doesn't seem to be significant difference between the amount of the country under "moderate to exceptional" drought and "extreme to exceptional". Anyway, why include the moderate drought area if it's not included in the graph to the left? I bet it is.

There's probably some differences in the specific indices used, but seriously, you think it's going to somehow going lower the 50% values in the long-term graph down to the 20% value in the NYTimes graph? Seriously? You may have to provide some corroborating evidence for such a wild claim.

Edited
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PurpleDrank:
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every %u22481,470 500 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified, primarily from fluctuations in ice-rafted debris. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a magnitude of perhaps 15-20% of the glacial-interglacial temperature change.

The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.[1][2]

The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue for a cyclicity close to 1470 500 years in the North Atlantic region, and that their results imply a variation in Holocene climate in this region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age, conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear event, and the start of the Younger Dryas.

The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past 9,000 years,[3][4] as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East.[5] Also, there is widespread evidence that a %u22481,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.[6]

For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice cores is the 8.2 kyr event.

The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental history.[7] Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on variations in solar output, and "reorganizations of atmospheric circulation."[7] Bond events may also be correlated with the 1800 year lunar tidal cycle. [8]



List of Bond events

Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions.
%u22481,400 BP (Bond event 1) %u2014 roughly correlates with the Migration Period pessimum (450%u2013900 AD)
%u22482,800 BP (Bond event 2) %u2014 roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900%u2013300 BC)[9]
%u22484,200 BP (Bond event 3) %u2014 correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event (correlates also with the collapse of the Akkadian Empire and the end of the Egyptian Old Kingdom)
%u22485,900 BP (Bond event 4) %u2014 correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event (correlates with the end of the Pre Pottery Neolithic B, and the arrival of nomadic pastoralists in the Middle East)
%u22488,100 BP (Bond event 5) %u2014 correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event
%u22489,400 BP (Bond event 6) %u2014 correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway,[10] as well as with a cold event in China.[11]
%u224810,300 BP (Bond event 7) %u2014 unnamed event (correlates with the beginnings of grain agriculture in the Middle East)
%u224811,100 BP (Bond event 8) %u2014 coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal


When I look at that, I think to myself: "Man...What a mess!". The different proxies have little agreement with one another on a scale of less than one degree. However, when you average them all together, you get a nice flat line with little variation. Pretty convenient, if that's what you wish to show. Of course, it's worth investigating whether any of the proxies used can actually predict temperature with a few tenths of a degree at any point, as well as how precise each proxy is temporally (i.e. what is the shortest time period that they have a reasonable correlation). I imagine that the actual year-to-year global temperature graph for the referenced time period, if it were available, would likely look nothing like any of the lines on that chart. It would certainly be much noisier with more pronounced maxima and minima.

Edited: Corrected typos
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Quoting sirmaelstrom:
@Neapolitan

I just remembered...You posted something at the end of the last blog entry's comment section [%u2116 546] about the "spike" of percentage of severe drought in the US using a five-year graph. I responded with a map of July 1934 showing a far higher percentage of severe drought in the US than anything in the last five years [last blog, %u2116 572]. You responded with a remark that it was only "one-month" and seemed to reply it was an aberration [%u2116 611].

Well, I suggest that you use the link I provided previously[see below] and check some other months as well. You can use this graph as a guide.


JBastardi provided a link that leads to this graph in %u2116 171. It comes from testimony given to Congress and allegedly originates from the NCDC. Although I can't find it on the site specifically, I did spot check a number of months using the NCDC link [I'll give it again at the end of this post] and it appears to be consistent with NCDC data. I again welcome and encourage you to check some yourself, as if the graph is not correct I will want to remove it from post.

If you find that it is indeed consistent with NCDC data, I imagine you'll admit that the "spike" in your previous 5-year data graph was rather insignificant historically after all. Of course, some say that I have a fairly active imagination, so maybe not.

Link to Histroical Palmer Drought Indices. Once again, note that you can select other months.

You know, I'm going to go back and provide a link forward to this post too, so that anyone reading the comments on the last blog entry can be properly informed.

Oh, that's inconvenient...

It appears that drought episodes aren't a new thing?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
@Neapolitan

I just remembered...You posted something at the end of the last blog entry's comment section [%u2116 546] about the "spike" of percentage of severe drought in the US using a five-year graph. I responded with a map of July 1934 showing a far higher percentage of severe drought in the US than anything in the last five years [last blog, %u2116 572]. You responded with a remark that it was only "one-month" and seemed to reply it was an aberration [%u2116 611].

Well, I suggest that you use the link I provided previously[see below] and check some other months as well. You can use this graph as a guide.


JBastardi provided a link that leads to this graph in %u2116 171. It comes from testimony given to Congress and allegedly originates from the NCDC. Although I can't find it on the site specifically, I did spot check a number of months using the NCDC link [I'll give it again at the end of this post] and it appears to be consistent with NCDC data. I again welcome and encourage you to check some yourself, as if the graph is not correct I will want to remove it from post.

If you find that it is indeed consistent with NCDC data, I imagine you'll admit that the "spike" in your previous 5-year data graph was rather insignificant historically after all. Of course, some say that I have a fairly active imagination, so maybe not.

Link to Histroical Palmer Drought Indices. Once again, note that you can select other months.

You know, I'm going to go back and provide a link forward to this post too, so that anyone reading the comments on the last blog entry can be properly informed.


Looking at the two tells me--not for the first time--that Bastardi (and Goddard, too, as this was on his site today as well) are perhaps a bit too gullible to see the obvious flaws in their lame attempt at comparative climate. Please allow me:

1) The NYT graph shows only "extreme" to "exceptional" drought. On the other hand, the wishful thinking Goddard/Bastardi graph shows "moderate" drought, as well.

On that fact alone, the comparisons are as false as Washington's teeth. Strike 1.

2) The Goddard/Bastardi graph doesn't mention which Palmer Drought Index it's using. Is that the Palmer Z Index? The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI)? The Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI)? The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)? More to the point, do they even know the difference?

Strike 2.

3) The Goddard/Bastardi graph runs back to the 1900s, a time when--of course--the country simply wasn't as large as it is now. You know, fewer states. According to the NOAA numbers, the NYT graph is using data for all 50 states; the Goddard/Bastardi one can't be.

(Note; I ,em>may be wrong about the last one; I'm still looking onto it. But even if not, strikes 1 and 2 are enough to call an out.)

That's strike 3, I'm afraid. I imagine that's pretty frustrating. Looks like the phantom and the bodybuilder will need to go back to the Great Bottomless Well of Denialism to find something else. I wish them luck; they're going to need it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Oceanic seesaw links Northern and Southern hemisphere during abrupt climate change
Published: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 - 13:42 in Earth & Climate

Very large and abrupt changes in temperature recorded over Greenland and across the North Atlantic during the last Ice Age were actually global in extent, according to an international team of researchers led by Cardiff University. New research, published in the journal Nature today, supports the idea that changes in ocean circulation within the Atlantic played a central role in abrupt climate change on a global scale.

Using a sediment core taken from the seafloor in the South Atlantic, the team were able to create a detailed reconstruction of ocean conditions in the South Atlantic during the final phases of the last ice age.

Dr Stephen Barker, Cardiff University's School of Earth and Ocean Sciences and lead author on the paper, said: "During this period very large and abrupt changes in temperature were observed across the North Atlantic region. However, evidence for the direct transmission of these shifts between the northern and southern hemispheres has so far been lacking".

The new study suggests that abrupt changes in the north were accompanied by equally abrupt but opposite changes in the south. It provides the first concrete evidence of an immediate seesaw connection between the North and South Atlantic. The data shows, for example, that an abrupt cooling in the north would be accompanied by a rapid southerly shift of ocean fronts in the Southern Ocean, followed by more gradual warming across the south.

Dr Barker explains: "The most intuitive way to explain these changes is by varying the strength of ocean circulation in the Atlantic. By weakening the circulation, the heat transported northwards would be retained in the south."

Climate physicist, Dr Gregor Knorr, co-author of the study and now based at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, said: "Our new results agree with climate models that predict a rapid transmission of climate signals between the two hemispheres as a consequence of abrupt changes in ocean circulation."

The study has wide implications for our understanding of abrupt climate change. Dr Ian Hall, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: "While it is unlikely that an abrupt change in climate, related to changes in ocean circulation, will occur in the near future, our results suggest that if such an extreme scenario did occur, its effects could be felt globally within years to decades."
Source: Cardiff University
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every ≈1,470 ± 500 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified, primarily from fluctuations in ice-rafted debris. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a magnitude of perhaps 15-20% of the glacial-interglacial temperature change.

The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.[1][2]

The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue for a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years in the North Atlantic region, and that their results imply a variation in Holocene climate in this region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age, conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear event, and the start of the Younger Dryas.

The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past 9,000 years,[3][4] as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East.[5] Also, there is widespread evidence that a ≈1,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.[6]

For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice cores is the 8.2 kyr event.

The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental history.[7] Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on variations in solar output, and "reorganizations of atmospheric circulation."[7] Bond events may also be correlated with the 1800 year lunar tidal cycle. [8]



List of Bond events

Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions.
≈1,400 BP (Bond event 1) — roughly correlates with the Migration Period pessimum (450–900 AD)
≈2,800 BP (Bond event 2) — roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900–300 BC)[9]
≈4,200 BP (Bond event 3) — correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event (correlates also with the collapse of the Akkadian Empire and the end of the Egyptian Old Kingdom)
≈5,900 BP (Bond event 4) — correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event (correlates with the end of the Pre Pottery Neolithic B, and the arrival of nomadic pastoralists in the Middle East)
≈8,100 BP (Bond event 5) — correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event
≈9,400 BP (Bond event 6) — correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway,[10] as well as with a cold event in China.[11]
≈10,300 BP (Bond event 7) — unnamed event (correlates with the beginnings of grain agriculture in the Middle East)
≈11,100 BP (Bond event 8) — coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal
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№ 199
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Lets see he was talking about this years drought in 2011. The chart you are showing only shows up to 2006.


Check the percentage of the spike in his graph and compare it to the longer term. Do you think that it is significant historically? Below is his previous graph, for ease of comparison.



Apparently comes from the NYTimes, here.

Edited for ease of reading
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how does generating tax revenue decrease co2?

as if profits and wealth have anything to do with climate science
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July 11, 2011, 10:08 p.m. EDT
Support for Australian government hits record low

By Enda Curran

SYDNEY -(MarketWatch)- The Labor-led government of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard came under renewed pressure Tuesday with a closely watched opinion poll showing its popularity at record lows just days after it introduced the terms of a controversial tax on carbon emissions.

Voter approval for Gillard's Labor party has fallen to 27%--a record low--while backing for the centre right Liberal-National opposition has grown to 49%, according to the Newspoll survey of 1,200 voters conducted for The Australian newspaper between July 8 and July 10. The bulk of voters were questioned before details of the carbon tax were released on Sunday.

Much of Labor's problems are linked to an unpopular plan to place a fixed 23 Australian dollars (US$24) price per ton of carbon emitted by the 500 biggest polluters from the middle of 2012, followed by a transition to a floating rate regime in 2015. Criticism ranges from Australia moving ahead of trading competitors in pricing carbon to worries the policy will drive higher the cost of living.

Support for the opposition is now at its highest since October 2001, when the party was in government under Prime Minister John Howard and enjoyed a surge in support in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the U.S.. On a two party preferred basis, which factors in vote transfers, the conservatives lead by 58% to 42%. Worryingly for Gillard, opposition leader Tony Abbott has emboldened his lead as preferred Prime Minister to 43% from 38%.

Abbott has led a vigorous campaign against the carbon tax, forcing Gillard to offer billions of dollars in compensation to households and businesses affected by the scheme. But Gillard has consistently dismissed the poor opinion polls and has banked her political fortune on securing approval for the carbon scheme between now and the next election
scheduled in 2013.

Link

I can only hope the current administration will follow the Australian approach. Right boys.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
@Neapolitan

I just remembered...You posted something at the end of the last blog entry's comment section [№ 546] about the "spike" of percentage of severe drought in the US using a five-year graph. I responded with a map of July 1934 showing a far higher percentage of severe drought in the US than anything in the last five years [last blog, № 572]. You responded with a remark that it was only "one-month" and seemed to reply it was an aberration [№ 611].

Well, I suggest that you use the link I provided previously[see below] and check some other months as well. You can use this graph as a guide.


JBastardi provided a link that leads to this graph in № 171. It comes from testimony given to Congress and allegedly originates from the NCDC. Although I can't find it on the site specifically, I did spot check a number of months using the NCDC link [I'll give it again at the end of this post] and it appears to be consistent with NCDC data. I again welcome and encourage you to check some yourself, as if the graph is not correct I will want to remove it from post.

If you find that it is indeed consistent with NCDC data, I imagine you'll admit that the "spike" in your previous 5-year data graph was rather insignificant historically after all. Of course, some say that I have a fairly active imagination, so maybe not.

Link to Histroical Palmer Drought Indices. Once again, note that you can select other months.

You know, I'm going to go back and provide a link forward to this post too, so that anyone reading the comments on the last blog entry can be properly informed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NSW declares natural disaster zones

From: AAP
July 07, 2011 5:38PM



PARTS of New South Wales have been declared natural disaster zones following 48 hours of wild winds and blizzard conditions.

The NSW government said severe weather in the past 48 hours had battered the Central West, North West Metropolitan, Illawarra and South Coast areas.

Police Minister Michael Gallacher said the Blue Mountains, Oberon, Shoalhaven and the Wingecarribee Shire had been declared natural disaster zones.

"Severe winds have covered much of these regions and this has caused significant damage to these communities," Mr Gallacher said in a statement on Thursday.

"Today's natural disaster declarations trigger a range of assistance measures for those people who have been directly impacted."

The wind had damaged buildings, parks, reserves and critical infrastructure.

Link


No surprises here: Perth's on another record cold spell
Lucy Rickard
July 11, 2011



Perth is on track to breaking another weather record as low daytime temperatures continue this week.

Weatherzone meteorologist Robert Wood said widespread cloud cover was contributing to the "massive reduction" in day-time temperatures experienced across WA so far this month.

Perth is set to record its second day in a row where the mercury won't reach 14 degrees, which hasn't occurred for 13 years.

Despite the low maximums, Perth's overnight temperatures remained around 10 degrees for the past two nights, and today's highest temperature – 11.6 degrees at 12.30pm – is just 1.3 degrees higher than the overnight low recorded at 5.30am.

So far this month, Perth has had five consecutive days where the overnight temperatures dropped below five degrees, and on every day except one, the maximum had not exceeded 17 degrees.

Yesterday, the Gascoyne Junction recorded its coldest day in 45 years, with the temperature climbing to a chilly 13 degrees.

Jurien Bay also had its coldest July day in 39 years, reaching just 13 degrees yesterday.


Mr Wood said that in addition to a chilly Sunday, Gascoyne Junction also had some heavy rainfall over the weekend.

"The Gascoyne district was the focus of the heaviest falls in the 24 hours to 9am on Sunday," he said.

"Carnarvon picked up 3o millimetres through this period, while further inland, Milly Milly had 50mm."

Rainfall was not quite as heavy in the 24 hours to 9am today, although Morawa and Dalwallinu each recording more than 20 millimetres.

Mr Wood said cloudy and wet conditions had now taken hold of WA, bringing a burst of useful rainfall in addition to the record cold conditions.

"An upper level low formed to the west of Geraldton in the last 48 hours, drawing on abundant moisture from over the Indian Ocean, is leading to widespread cloud cover, rainfall and chilly day-time temperatures across WA," Mr Wood said.


Link


Snow Hits New Zealand during Major Winter Storm
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Jul 13, 2011; 9:07 AM ET
Share |
Google Maps image of New Zealand.

Snow, rain, high winds, hail and even a tornado have struck New Zealand along with a severe early week winter storm.

On the South Island, a heavy fall of snow has disrupted traffic, causing accidents and at least one school closure in one town, according to the New Zealand Herald.

Queenstown was blanketed in snow on Tuesday, with pictures on the Herald's website suggesting snowfall of up to 10 inches in the area.

A skidding 10-ton truck nearly crashed through the front of the Queenstown District Court, the Herald reported.

A Queenstown police officer urged motorists to put on chains, owing to the hazardous state of area roadways.

Meanwhile, a small twister apparently tore a narrow swath through Kaiwaka in the early morning. The North Island town is located between Auckland and Whangarei.

On the bright side, the storm left more than a meter (or more than 3 feet) of snow on the ski fields of Mount Ruapehu, North Island. Operators were looking forward to clear weather later in the week, the Herald indicated.

Another wave of rain, snow and high winds will sweep through New Zealand into Wednesday, say forecasters at AccuWeather.com.

Heavy snow will sock the South Island highlands yet again, and inland sites such as Queenstown could get another 6 to 12 inches of snow.

Later in the week, the weather will tend to improve, although it will be significantly cold through at least Friday.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
climate extremes were probably more prevalent in an age where there was one enormous ocean (modern day pacific and indian), a narrow, newly forming ocean (modern atlantic) and multiple continents on the move. a move from one major super-continent and one major ocean, which took over 800 million slow years, and its still moving.

50 million years ago


700 million years ago


Man cannot prevent the formation of the next supercontinent from forming. So what's the big rush to save coastline 30 years from now?

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Quoting PurpleDrank:
in the Paleocene–Eocene comparison to today's climate, its 65 million years of evolution and plate tectonics to figure in.

Didn't an impact from space disrupt cycles 65 million years ago approx?




Actually, the PETM is probably too far back in time to draw meaningful comparisons to today anyway, for a lot of reasons. I also seem to recall that some studies have suggested that significant temperature increases at the time preceded CO₂ increases by two or three thousand years. I haven't looked at it in a while, but I would research it more thoroughly (from both points of view, of course) before I would make any definitive comparisons to today's climate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
in the Paleocene–Eocene comparison to today's climate, its 65 million years of evolution and plate tectonics to figure in.

Didn't an impact from space disrupt cycles 65 million years ago approx?


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Quoting Neapolitan:

So while there's no evidence of it having happened, the extinction-causing PETM warming--which was overall roughly 25 times slower than the current warming--may have in parts been as rapid? And that invalidates what I wrote how?


Pretty much. For all we know 1.5° F temperature changes within century and 0.5° F changes within half-century periods have happened countless times before. There aren't any proxies with the appropriate precision to rule this out over time periods of 100 years or less.

Added: Also worth noting that the PETM warming is claimed to have lasted 20,000 years. We do not know with even the slightest certainly that current warming will last that long, let alone that the current 100-year rate will. Shorter terms, in this case 100 years, will always exhibit greater variation than longer terms, such as 20,000 years. Comparing the rates side-by-side and stating that we can expect similar consequences is pure conjecture.

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perhaps the Paleocene–Eocene event was less rapid because co2 levels were higher than today


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Quoting sirmaelstrom:
№ 165


This is an invalid comparison: You're comparing a 100-year trend presently to a 20,000-year trend millions of years ago. There is no way to know for sure that the temperature did not change quicker over a specific 100-year period during the PETM than it has currently.

So while there's no evidence of it having happened, the extinction-causing PETM warming--which was overall roughly 25 times slower than the current warming--may have in parts been as rapid? And that invalidates what I wrote how?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
№ 165
Quoting Neapolitan:

And?

There's an obvious denialist blind spot to this one salient point, because they always choose to not address it when it's brought up, or they quickly change the subject to something else: another area of climate, something they read on WUWT, an ad hominem, a reference to Al Gore. Whatever. I shall try yet again regardless:

Yes, the planet has been warmer before. However, as far back as scientists can see, rapid climate changes--up, down, or sideways--have always led to major disruptions to the biosphere. Always.

Case in point: the PETM--in which temps rose 6.C over 20,000 years, a geologically "rapid" pace--saw mass extinctions. And the current pace of warming due to CO2 is an order of magnitude faster than it was during the PETM.


This is an invalid comparison: You're comparing a 100-year trend presently to a 20,000-year trend millions of years ago. There is no way to know for sure that the temperature did not change quicker over a specific 100-year period during the PETM than it has currently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So the Telegraph is fabricating data??
Really, a record is a record.
Empirical evidence is fact.

Thousands stranded by worst snows in Bolivia for 20 years

By Robin Yapp, Sao Paulo

8:39AM BST 12 Jul 2011

President Evo Morales was reported to be considering declaring a state of emergency in the region of Potosi to mobilise the army and national guard.

Some 7,000 people belonging to farming families are in need of help in the region, according to officials.

More than 40,000 llamas and alpacas are also without food and farmers have lost their crops under a thick blanket of snow.

The snow has hit the remote highlands of Potosi, which lies in the south-west of the country and generally remains dry.

Bolivia's government has asked for help from neighbouring countries, including helicopters to drop aid for people in isolated regions and heavy machinery to clear roads.
Bolivia's central government has already "sent food, supplies and medicine" to the area, according to Cecilia Chacon, the defence minister.

On Sunday the authorities ordered the rescue of a family of Dutch tourists stranded near the border with Chile due to the heavy snowfall.

A cold snap that brought fog and snow to the capital La Paz at the start of this month killed at least 35 people.


I am not sure when the ice will come back, never
claimed any date, just reporting the data which
shows that it will, and judging from the historical
Vostok data, maybe soon, maybe not. Many unknowns.



The Eemian interglacial era (is analogous Sangamon era in North America, Ipswichian interglacial in UK, Riss-Würm interglacial in the Alps) is the second-to-latest interglacial era of the Ice age. It began about 131,000 years ago, consisted of an early warm period of about 3,000 to 4,000 years duration, a rapid cooling and then a much slower cooling leading to the next glacial era. However, recent ice core analyses have shown that during the course of the Eemian, there were several short periods in which glacial conditions prevailed. The onset and close of these periods were very abrupt. The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape (now tundra) in northern Norway. Hardwood trees like Hazel and Oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland. Sea levels at that time were higher than they were now, possibly indicating greater deglaciation than today (one presumes the ice sheets of Greenland and possibly Antarctica). Scandinavia was an island due to the inundation of vast areas of northern Europe and the West Siberian Plain.

At the peak of the Eemian, the world was generally warmer and wetter than it now is. Trees grew as far north as Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago instead of only as far north as Kuujjuaq , and the prairie-forest boundary in the Great Plains lay further west -- near Lubbock, Texas instead of near Dallas, Texas where it now exists. The era quickly cooled to conditions cooler and drier than the present, and by 114,000 years ago, a glacial era had returned.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:
Thousands stranded by worst snows in Bolivia for 20 years

By Robin Yapp, Sao Paulo

8:39AM BST 12 Jul 2011

President Evo Morales was reported to be considering declaring a state of emergency in the region of Potosi to mobilise the army and national guard.

Some 7,000 people belonging to farming families are in need of help in the region, according to officials.

More than 40,000 llamas and alpacas are also without food and farmers have lost their crops under a thick blanket of snow.

The snow has hit the remote highlands of Potosi, which lies in the south-west of the country and generally remains dry.

Bolivia's government has asked for help from neighbouring countries, including helicopters to drop aid for people in isolated regions and heavy machinery to clear roads.
Bolivia's central government has already "sent food, supplies and medicine" to the area, according to Cecilia Chacon, the defence minister.

On Sunday the authorities ordered the rescue of a family of Dutch tourists stranded near the border with Chile due to the heavy snowfall.

A cold snap that brought fog and snow to the capital La Paz at the start of this month killed at least 35 people.

Link


Be clear about targets and honour commitments BONN - Today, Ambassador Pablo Solon of the Plurinational State of Bolivia addressed reporters at the UN climate talks in Germany. Ambassador Solon outlined a clear plan, based on submissions from other countries and civil society, on how to move the talks forward in 2011.



"The key issue at these talks is the gap between how much climate pollution we need to reduce and how much countries are committed to reducing. We call that the "gap" and it's the difference between 4C of warming and 2C of warming. The Cancun outcome sets us on a path to 4C." Ambassador Solon Said.



"Some countries want to talk about the 'rules' first, instead of this gap in commitment, but we know that rules will not reduce this gap. Fixing rules will simply prevent the gap from increasing, it won't set about actually reducing emissions. The heart of the matter is the depth of pollution cuts." Ambassador Solon said.



"More incredible is the suggestion by some countries that they want the market mechanisms from the Kyoto Protocol but do not want to have the legally binding targets of the Kyoto Protocol. You can't say I'm not coming to the party but please send all the gifts to my house." Ambassador Solon said.



Ambassador Solon made a presentation that showed the effect of temperature rise on the Chacaltaya glacier in the Andes. Chacaltaya has already receded significantly with only 0.8C of recorded warming.


Link


Maybe Mr. Solon should go home and check the
"regional" weather before spouting off on how much money the G8 needs to pay!

Given that that part of Bolivia is a) in the middle of winter and b) two-three miles in altitude, the fact that it snowed isn't that big a deal, of course. But what is a big deal is just how much it snowed. To have that much precipitation fall must've taken an incredible plume of moisture-laden air. In other words: one more example of extreme weather likely made worse by the warming global climate.

But as climatologists say: we ain't seen nothing yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thousands stranded by worst snows in Bolivia for 20 years

By Robin Yapp, Sao Paulo

8:39AM BST 12 Jul 2011

President Evo Morales was reported to be considering declaring a state of emergency in the region of Potosi to mobilise the army and national guard.

Some 7,000 people belonging to farming families are in need of help in the region, according to officials.

More than 40,000 llamas and alpacas are also without food and farmers have lost their crops under a thick blanket of snow.

The snow has hit the remote highlands of Potosi, which lies in the south-west of the country and generally remains dry.

Bolivia's government has asked for help from neighbouring countries, including helicopters to drop aid for people in isolated regions and heavy machinery to clear roads.
Bolivia's central government has already "sent food, supplies and medicine" to the area, according to Cecilia Chacon, the defence minister.

On Sunday the authorities ordered the rescue of a family of Dutch tourists stranded near the border with Chile due to the heavy snowfall.

A cold snap that brought fog and snow to the capital La Paz at the start of this month killed at least 35 people.

Link


Be clear about targets and honour commitments BONN - Today, Ambassador Pablo Solon of the Plurinational State of Bolivia addressed reporters at the UN climate talks in Germany. Ambassador Solon outlined a clear plan, based on submissions from other countries and civil society, on how to move the talks forward in 2011.



"The key issue at these talks is the gap between how much climate pollution we need to reduce and how much countries are committed to reducing. We call that the "gap" and it's the difference between 4C of warming and 2C of warming. The Cancun outcome sets us on a path to 4C." Ambassador Solon Said.



"Some countries want to talk about the 'rules' first, instead of this gap in commitment, but we know that rules will not reduce this gap. Fixing rules will simply prevent the gap from increasing, it won't set about actually reducing emissions. The heart of the matter is the depth of pollution cuts." Ambassador Solon said.



"More incredible is the suggestion by some countries that they want the market mechanisms from the Kyoto Protocol but do not want to have the legally binding targets of the Kyoto Protocol. You can't say I'm not coming to the party but please send all the gifts to my house." Ambassador Solon said.



Ambassador Solon made a presentation that showed the effect of temperature rise on the Chacaltaya glacier in the Andes. Chacaltaya has already receded significantly with only 0.8C of recorded warming.


Link


Maybe Mr. Solon should go home and check the
"regional" weather before spouting off on how much money the G8 needs to pay!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PurpleDrank:
or be imaginative...

just suggest solutions instead of blame


OK, :)

http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Manmade-Global-Warm ing-The-Solution

Quoting cyclonebuster:


Basically as the inlet and discharge area decreases the number of them increase. However, the length of them won't change. So if we get 1,020 of them with 200 foot crossections about 2,000 feet of tunnel would be used for each one of them. That would include the upper warm section of the tunnel and the lower cool section of the tunnel. So we get 2,000 feet of tunnel pipe material times the total number of tunnels 1,020. I get about 386.3 miles of pipe what you get?


" 0 " , it is not a viable solution and impossible to implement. Please focus on something realistic.

CUL8R >>>>>>
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Correcto: the thicker and denser, the warmer it gets. (See: Venus)


we have little knowledge of venus and its past

and compared to Earth, there are many differences.

well..here's a stab at something unscientific perhaps but just as easy to understand as watching ice melt:

Venus has a toxic, uninhabitable atmosphere, 67.2 million miles from the Sun. Global temperature prevents water from freezing.

Earth has a habitable atmosphere, 93 million miles from the Sun. Global temperature allows water to freeze.

Mars has a thin uninhabitable stmospehere, 141.6 million miles from the Sun. Global temperature keeps water at constant freeze.


Striking conclusion: distance from Sun dictates atmosphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
related to computing capacity.


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
or be imaginative...

just suggest solutions instead of blame
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok its time to start thinking about what we can do


what exactly has to happen to acheive co2 levels the "science community" deems healthy?

what can we as a species do, what's the plan?

what do you, the bloggers here, think is the best approach to dropping co2 levels? is it possible?

be realistic.

shoot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Basically the blanket is getting thicker and the thicker it becomes the warmer you get.

Correcto: the thicker and denser, the warmer it gets. (See: Venus)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:


Couple of nice sites to start.

Link


The Eemian was an interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago and ended about 114,000 years ago. It was the second-to-latest interglacial period of the current Ice Age, the most recent being the Holocene which extends to the present day. The prevailing Eemian climate is believed to have been similar to that of the Holocene. The Eemian is also known as the Sangamonian Stage in North America, the Ipswichian Stage in the UK, Mikulin interglacial in East European Plain, the Valdivia interglacial in Chile and the Riss-Würm interglacial in the Alps.
Global temperatures

The Eemian climate is believed to have been about as stable as that of the Holocene. Changes in the earth's orbital parameters from today (greater obliquity and eccentricity, and perihelion), known as the Milankovitch cycle, probably led to greater seasonal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere, although global annual mean temperatures were probably similar to those of the Holocene. The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape (which is now tundra) in northern Norway well above the Arctic Circle at . Hardwood trees like hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.

At the peak of the Eemian, the northern hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The Hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine.



Link


And?

There's an obvious denialist blind spot to this one salient point, because they always choose to not address it when it's brought up, or they quickly change the subject to something else: another area of climate, something they read on WUWT, an ad hominem, a reference to Al Gore. Whatever. I shall try yet again regardless:

Yes, the planet has been warmer before. However, as far back as scientists can see, rapid climate changes--up, down, or sideways--have always led to major disruptions to the biosphere. Always.

Case in point: the PETM--in which temps rose 6.C over 20,000 years, a geologically "rapid" pace--saw mass extinctions. And the current pace of warming due to CO2 is an order of magnitude faster than it was during the PETM.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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