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The whole silly warming pause, warming hiatus thing

By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 5:26 AM GMT on February 21, 2014

The whole silly warming pause, warming hiatus thing: Bumps and Wiggles (9)

I want to finish my start-of-the-semester important research findings with my synthesis of the knowledge we have about the pause or hiatus in warming. In my little collection of blogs, I have written about this several times, and I link some of those entries below. Sometime in 2005, those in the lobby opposing climate-change science started to beat the drum that warming of the planet had stopped and that the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were in fundamental error. The drumbeat was amplified by a knowledge-twisting article in the Daily Mail, which I discussed in It’s Not Getting Warmer – Again, Really? Increased credibility to the pause in warming was added by an article in The Economist reporting on the story of the “pause” and that, indeed, if you looked at the temperature record it was not documenting an unrelenting increase in global-average surface temperature (from when the Economist article was published).

When I first wrote about the warming pause, I referred to my piece Form of Argument on how to analyze this news report. The article focused on a single piece of information, isolated, and posed as an unanswerable contradiction. The reporting and figures did not carry the full descriptions of the graphs that proved no warming. There were also implications of stealth. The list goes on. The warming hiatus as a challenge to the body of science-based knowledge on climate change was a manufactured problem.

The planet is warming from the trapping of energy near the Earth’s surface. It is reasonable to expect the average surface temperature to increase; it has and it will (Just Temperature). However, the heat being accumulated does not have to go only to increasing the average surface temperature. Some of that heat has been melting glaciers, sea ice and ice sheets. In addition, much of that heat has been heating the ocean, causing it to expand and further raising sea level. Energy goes into motions in the atmosphere and ocean. As for temperature of the surface, the Arctic is warming at an alarming rate; the temperature does not change uniformly over the Earth’s surface. The graphs isolated to substantiate the warming pause don’t challenge the entire body of research. They only raise questions about that particular graph, the underlying knowledge used in the construction of that graph and whether or not that graph is being presented in a way consistent with its underlying knowledge. There are also questions about that graph as a communication tool – both to convey that the climate is warming and to prove that it is not.

No doubt, the discrepancies between global-average surface temperature and the same quantity calculated from model projections require attention. The need to explain the bumps and wiggles in the global average temperature is an important scientific exercise; it is one of research elements to improve predictive skill. This was the subject of my Bumps and Wiggles Series and specifically Some Jobs for Models. From a science-based perspective, discrepancies of the type in this graph don’t threaten the body of knowledge of climate science, because they don’t represent the body of knowledge of climate change. From a science-based perspective, the discrepancies in the graph are clues for growing the body of knowledge. Any challenge to the body of knowledge comes from either a deliberate or ignorant misrepresentation of information and its implications.

What I present below is a small synthesis of some of the research that has taken place to explain the warming pause / hiatus. Here is a picture (Figure 1) of the hiatus from the Economist article.


In Figure 1, the warming pause is the leveling off of the rise in temperature after that big peak in the late 1990s, about 1998 to be precise. The blue-shaded area is the temperature taken from an ensemble of models reported in the IPCC reports.

My climate-change course does not rely on equations, but I contend that it’s solidly anchored in science-based reasoning. I broke my students into groups and I asked for an analysis of the graph in Figure 1. After about 15 minutes, they came up with a list of items that needed to be addressed. One item on the list was that given the very definition of climate as a 30-year average, did it make sense to look at a 10-year trend? Were the surface-temperature measurements distributed properly to sample the warming in the Arctic? There were even questions about the objectivity of the chart maker. These are basic questions of scientific method.

There was another line of questions about whether the sunspot cycle might have an influence and if there had been changes related to reflection from aerosols, the particles in the atmosphere that absorb and reflect energy. These are ways the energy budget might be altered. There were questions of internal variability, especially that big spike in 1998, a known large El Nino warming. Shouldn’t that variability be removed so that a trend might be more confidently isolated? Could the ocean be a buffer? Are the models expected to represent El Nino and other types of internal variability on a case-by-case basis?

These are science-based questions. They pose no challenge to entirety of the climate-science knowledge base.

If we look into the scientific literature, there is a paper by Cowtan and Way (2014), entitled “Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series and its Impact on Recent Temperature Trends.” This paper does investigate the sampling of the surface temperature observations and, indeed, there are impacts on the temperature trend. They have been underestimated. Thompson et al. (2009) wrote “Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights.” In this paper, they account for El Nino, which exposes the changes in temperature due to volcanoes. After extracting these signals to reveal the trends, their conclusions include “Filtering global-mean temperature time series to remove the effects of known sources of natural variability enriches the signal of the anthropogenically induced warming over the past century. The trends in the raw and residual data for the period January 1950–March 2009 are comparable (~0.12 K / decade); but the standard deviation of the (detrended) residual data is only 2/3 as large as the standard deviation of the raw data (~0.10 versus ~0.15 K).” The uncertainty in the trends has been reduced.

The point I want to make is that there are studies focused on the scientific questions that my students raised. Many of these papers have been reported on in the blogosphere, individually touted as proof or deconstructed in isolation for their shortcomings. Collectively, they are a systematic investigation of the “pause” in warming. Collectively, they tell a coherent and convergent story of a warming planet.

In the previous two blogs, I have mentioned the paper of Trenberth and Fasullo (2013), who are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface-air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous Rood tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific, while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino.

In another paper focused on the Pacific Ocean, England et al. 2014 investigate an extended period of strong trade winds. These strong trade winds have kept the eastern Pacific in a sustained cool period. The Pacific is so large, that the cool surface reduces the global-average temperature. England et al. present a suggestive figure of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the global temperature record. (Figure 2: Top frame: Global surface temperature anomalies. Bottom frame: Pacific wind stress anomalies. From England et al., 2014) The suggested relation is that in the positive (warm eastern Pacific, +IPO in Figure) the temperatures rise rapidly. In the negative cool phase (cool eastern Pacific, -IPO), the temperature rise is halted. Note that it has not been declining. Their analysis accounts “… for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue; however, rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.”

This body of research focused on understanding the pause or hiatus in warming is quite impressive. The consistent story that is emerging is, in fact, worrisome from the point of view of planetary temperature. It is virtually certain that the warm water in the western Pacific Ocean will, once again, move into the eastern Pacific. At this time, there will be a spike in the temperature increase.

The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all.

r

Climate Change News Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. Naga5000:
Since the topic always inevitably leads here, I have a question to those anti-government folks here:

How do you reconcile your hatred of government with the takeover of government by the private sector? Aren't the people you have a disregard for essentially the private sector lobbyists that have distorted the function of government?

Food for thought. Have a great day, everyone!
They're being played by TPTB like a Stadivius by Perlman.

The term "useful idiot" comes to mind.
Quoting 500. ARiot:


Or another way to look at it.

Nearly ALL U.S. government efforts to curb GHG is run by the private sector.

The pollution controls too, all the cap and trade from the Bush 41 administration to curb NO2X from coal is private sector.

And on the alternative / low carbon energy front, each of the multi-billion dollar energy savings performace contracts goes right to the private sector, outside of a few small-scale tests, is contracted to the private sector.

Here's a short list of ESCOs

Anyone who things the AGW efforts will involve significant government regulation and significant loss to the private sector is exactly wrong.





I think that is my point exactly, the anti-government thing is a myth. The government has been privatized more and more. It is a contradiction to claim government = bad, private sector = good. A lot of the time, they are one in the same.
503. yoboi
Quoting 502. Naga5000:


I think that is my point exactly, the anti-government thing is a myth. The government has been privatized more and more. It is a contradiction to claim government = bad, private sector = good. A lot of the time, they are one in the same.



uh uh uh.....you did not build that.........
Quoting 503. yoboi:



uh uh uh.....you did not build that.........


Propaganda based on a quote taken out of context. How much more dishonest can an entire meme get?

I apologize for the long post but I found it important to read it in it's true context..
Thanks for bearing with me..

Why are we still debating climate change?..Click HERE for Video and complete article/Links..


Editor's note: Carol Costello anchors the 9 to 11 a.m. ET edition of CNN's "Newsroom" each weekday.

(CNN) -- There is no debate.

Climate change is real. And, yes, we are, in part, to blame.

There is a 97% consensus among scientific experts that humans are causing global warming. Ninety-seven percent!

Yet some very vocal Americans continue to debate what is surely fact..

The question is, why?

Trust certainly plays a part.

According to Gordon Gauchat, an associate professor of sociology from the University of Wisconsin, just 42% of adults in the U.S. have a great deal of confidence (PDF) in the scientific community.

It's easy to understand why. Most Americans can't even name a living scientist. I suspect the closest many Americans get to a living, breathing scientist is the fictional Dr. Sheldon Cooper from CBS's sitcom "The Big Bang Theory." Sheldon is brilliant, condescending and narcissistic. Whose trust would he inspire?

Expert: Sea levels make flooding worse
Gingrich: Secretary Kerry is delusional
Nye to Ham: God's not in climate change

But trust isn't the only factor in why many Americans doubt climate change.

I asked Anthony Leiserowitz, the director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. His group has been studying the "why" question for more than a decade.

"We've found there are six very (specific) categories that respond to this issue in different ways," he said.

He calls these categories "Global Warming's Six Americas."

Opinion: Obama's efforts on climate may not be enough

The first group, "The Alarmed," is made up 16% of the public. They believe climate change is an urgent problem but have no clear idea of how to fix it.

The second group (27%) is "The Concerned." They believe climate change is a problem but think it's more about polar bears and tiny islands than a problem that directly affects them.

The third group, "The Cautious" (23%), are people on the fence. They haven't made up their minds whether global warming is real or if it's a man-made problem.

The fourth group, "The Disengaged" (5%), doesn't know anything about climate change.

The fifth group, "The Doubtful" (12%), do not think climate change is man-made. They think it's natural and poses no long-term risk.

Leiserowitz says it's the sixth group, "The Dismissives," that is the most problematic, even though it comprises just 15% of the public.

"They say it's a hoax, scientists are making up data, it's a U.N. conspiracy (or) Al Gore and his friends want to get rich." Leiserowitz goes on to say, "It's a really loud 15%. ... (It's a) pretty well-organized 15%."

And thanks to the media and the political stage, that vocal minority is mighty.

Former presidential candidate Rick Santorum told Glenn Beck on Fox News in 2011, "There is no such thing as global warming." Santorum went on to tell Rush Limbaugh, "It's just an excuse for more government control of your life, and I've never been for any scheme or even accepted the junk science behind the whole narrative."

And just last week, tea party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz told CNN's Dana Bash, "Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory."

Meanwhile, the climate change "counter movement" has been helped along by an infusion of cash from, among others, some in the powerful fossil fuel industry.

A recent study by Drexel University found that conservative foundations and others have bankrolled climate denial to the tune of $558 million between 2003 and 2010.

"Money amplifies certain voices above others and, in effect, gives them a megaphone in the public square. Powerful funders are supporting the campaign to deny scientific findings about global warming and raise public doubts about the roots and remedies of this massive global threat," writes environmental scientist Robert J. Brulle, the study's author.

The good news is, those uninformed minority voices are being quieted by nature and by those who have powerful voices.

Extreme weather is forcing people to at least think about how global warming affects them directly. And, perhaps more important, many religious leaders, including evangelicals, are now "green." They concur with the scientific community and take it a step farther. They say we have a moral obligation to save the planet.

Even the enormously popular Pope Francis may soon speak out on global warming. The Vatican press office says Francis is working on draft text on ecology. That text could turn into an encyclical, or a letter to bishops around the world, instructing that the "faithful must respect the environment."
Now things are getting real serious, maybe this will get the deniers.:

California’s Water Crisis Is Becoming A Beer Crisis

"Along with California’s water supplies and public health, the ongoing drought in the state may have yet another victim to claim: beer.
Lagunitas Brewing Company — one of California’s biggest craft breweries — told NPR last week that the drought is threatening the Russian River, where they get the water for their beer. Such sources play a key role in the brewing process — as NPR notes, producers like Coors and Cold Spring Brewing Co. tout their use of water from the Rockies and a Minnesota natural spring, respectively. But if the drought forces Lagunitas to switch from the river to groundwater for its supplies, the heavy minerals in the latter won’t go well with the beer.
“It would be like brewing with Alka-Seltzer,” Jeremy Marshall, Lagunitas’ head brewer, told NPR."

More ...
Quoting 506. JohnLonergan:
California’s Water Crisis Is Becoming A Beer Crisis

Stuff just got real!
How do you respond in a negligible way?

All the volcanoes come from subduction zones or hot spots.
Subduction leads to orogeny.
That means it went down before it went up, or toward the core before away from it. Hot spots like under Hawaii are much less frequent and of smaller volume. But don't forget trenches are doing the opposite of volcanoes.
Volcanoes contribute to recent global warming 'hiatus'

Volcanic eruptions in the early part of the 21st century have cooled the planet, according to a study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This cooling partly offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases.



Despite continuing increases in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, and in the total heat content of the ocean, global-mean temperatures at the surface of the planet and in the troposphere (the lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere) have shown relatively little warming since 1998. This so-called 'slow-down' or 'hiatus' has received considerable scientific, political and popular attention. The volcanic contribution to the 'slow-down' is the subject of a new paper appearing in the Feb. 23 edition of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Read more ...

Journal Reference:
Benjamin D. Santer, Céline Bonfils, Jeffrey F. Painter, Mark D. Zelinka, Carl Mears, Susan Solomon, Gavin A. Schmidt, John C. Fyfe, Jason N. S. Cole, Larissa Nazarenko, Karl E. Taylor, Frank J. Wentz. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geoscience, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2098



Quoting 506. JohnLonergan:

California’s Water Crisis Is Becoming A Beer Crisis

"Along with California’s water supplies and public health, the ongoing drought in the state may have yet another victim to claim: beer.
Lagunitas Brewing Company — one of California’s biggest craft breweries — told NPR last week that the drought is threatening the Russian River, where they get the water for their beer. Such sources play a key role in the brewing process — as NPR notes, producers like Coors and Cold Spring Brewing Co. tout their use of water from the Rockies and a Minnesota natural spring, respectively. But if the drought forces Lagunitas to switch from the river to groundwater for its supplies, the heavy minerals in the latter won’t go well with the beer.
“It would be like brewing with Alka-Seltzer,” Jeremy Marshall, Lagunitas’ head brewer, told NPR."


I wonder why so much credence is giving to government weather and climate forecasts when they have been such an abysmal failure time and time again.

Link
Quoting 511. Cochise111:
I wonder why so much credence is giving to government weather and climate forecasts when they have been such an abysmal failure time and time again.

Link


So says the guy who posts a WUWT article. The irony, it burns!

How much are you paid?
Greg Laden shows What Climate Change Denialism Looks Like:



Are they scared? Given how well armed they are, it would seem so. Trying to push the world in to climate apocalypse so they can do the survivalism thing? Interesting idea.
Please share this for it is very important that the "word" gets out to the hearing impaired on severe weather alerts, and it ain't happening like it should.

The DirecTV dropping TWC has unintended consequences for the HEaring impaired.

Its not right. They should seriously reconsider their action going with "WeatherNation".



In my personal view.


FCC's new closed captioning rules had long journey
FCC rules aimed at stopping inaccurate closed captioning took ten years to become a reality. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler made it a priority of his regime.


"Five wins and a very light power reese know" sounds more like gibberish than a weather forecast.
But that was the closed caption that hearing-impaired people got during a report from the WeatherNation channel last month. What the caption was supposed to say was, "high winds and a very light, powdery snow."
Closed captioning is designed to help the deaf and hearing-impaired enjoy television and receive important news and weather reports.
Unfortunately, captions are often riddled with typos and incomplete sentences that leave viewers struggling to make sense of what is being said.
ON LOCATION: Where the cameras roll
"It's frustrating," said Cheryl Simpson, a hearing-impaired Norfolk, Va., resident who often has to rely on her husband to tell her what's happening on the screen.
During emergency news alerts, she said, "The stuff you see on the crawl does not match what they are saying."
Tom Wheeler agrees. On Thursday, the Federal Communications Commission chairman issued new rules that the regulatory agency hopes will improve closed captioning, which is mandated by the 1996 Telecommunications Act.
"Something needs to be done," Wheeler said of the current state of closed captioning.
The FCC will require that captions match spoken words in dialogue and convey background noises and other sounds to the fullest extent possible, according to agency officials familiar with the order.
PHOTOS: Box office top 10 of 2013 | Biggest flops of 2013
The order will also mandate that captions not block other content on the screen, overlap one another, run off the edge of the video screen or be blocked by other information.
The bar will be slightly lower for news, sports and other programming that airs live as opposed to entertainment programming that is completed weeks before airing.
However, the agency still wants improvement on the often sloppy captioning that accompanies live programming.
At the FCC meeting, Claude Stout, executive director of Telecommunications for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, stressed the need for better captioning of news programming.
"One of the most frightening moments for my wife and I was the sniper shootings that took place in late 2002," Stout said, using sign language. "Local stations in my area showed breaking news on the latest developments, but they were not captioned. We felt trapped and helpless."
FACES TO WATCH 2014: Digital media
The first TV programming ever to feature captioning was the PBS cooking show "The French Chef" with Julia Child in 1972. But closed captioning didn't become commonplace until the 1990s.
And even when it became a requirement in 1996, the FCC didn't foresee the need for any sort of quality control requirements for the industry.
"The lack of consistency in the quality of TV captioning demonstrates that the original assumptions that the marketplace would ensure quality captions have not borne out," said Karen Peltz Strauss, deputy of the FCC's Consumer and Governmental Affairs Bureau.


Wheeler not only expressed frustration about the current state of closed captioning, but he also wasn't happy with how long it took the agency to act on concerns about it.
The FCC was first asked to address the state of closed captioning a decade ago and issued a notice of proposed rules to try to improve the situation in 2005. The matter has pretty much been in limbo until Wheeler, who was sworn in as chairman last November, made it a priority.

"Ten years is too slow a pace," Wheeler said at the meeting, and then signed, "This is only the beginning."
The majority of closed captioning is outsourced by TV stations and broadcast and cable networks. Jill Toschi, vice president for operations at the National Captioning Institute, said the FCC's actions are a "very positive step" and send a "strong message that caption producers need to be committed quality."
Wheeler promised that the FCC won't forget about this issue going forward.
"We'll keep pace with how it's working," he said.
Could the FCC issue fines to anyone falling short of their expectations?
"We'll see," Wheeler said.

joe.flint@latimes.com


Quoting 511. Cochise111:
I wonder why so much credence is giving to government weather and climate forecasts when they have been such an abysmal failure time and time again.

Link


how do you feel about the failures of skeptic predictions?

516. yoboi
Quoting 512. Naga5000:


So says the guy who posts a WUWT article. The irony, it burns!

How much are you paid?



Dr. Tim Ball wrote the article.....
Quoting 516. yoboi:



Dr. Tim Ball wrote the article.....


Anyone who writes for WUWT is a fraud.
518. yoboi
Chaotic sets are organized about ‘skeletons’ of periodic orbits in the sense that every point on a chaotic set is arbitrarily close to such an orbit. The orbits have the stability property of saddles: attracting in some directions; repelling in others. This topology has implications for changing climates that evidence pronounced variability on time scales ranging from decades to tens of thousands of years. Among these implications are the following: 1. A wide range of periodicities should be (and are) observed. 2. Periodicities should (and do) shift - often abruptly - as the evolving climatic trajectory sequentially shadows first one periodic orbit and then another. 3. Models that have been ‘tuned’ (parametric adjustment) to fit trajectorial evolution in the vicinity of one periodic orbit are likely to fail when the real system moves to another region of the phase space. 4. In response to secular forcing, chaotic sets simplify via the elimination of periodic orbits. If one accepts the reality of anthropogenic warming, the long-term prediction is loss of intrinsic variability. 5. In response to periodic forcing, nonlinear systems can manifest subharmonic resonance i.e., ‘cyclic’ behavior with periods and rotation numbers rationally related to the period of the forcing. Such cycling has been implicated in millennial and stadial variations in paleoclimatic time series. 6. Generically, the dynamics of system observables, such as climate sensitivity, are qualitatively equivalent to those of the whole. If the climate is chaotic, so too is sensitivity. These considerations receive minimal attention in consensus views of climate change that emphasize essentially one-to-one correspondence between global temperatures and exogenous forcing. Caveat emptor.




Link
Quoting 518. yoboi:
Chaotic sets are organized about ‘skeletons’ of periodic orbits in the sense that every point on a chaotic set is arbitrarily close to such an orbit. The orbits have the stability property of saddles: attracting in some directions; repelling in others. This topology has implications for changing climates that evidence pronounced variability on time scales ranging from decades to tens of thousands of years. Among these implications are the following: 1. A wide range of periodicities should be (and are) observed. 2. Periodicities should (and do) shift - often abruptly - as the evolving climatic trajectory sequentially shadows first one periodic orbit and then another. 3. Models that have been ‘tuned’ (parametric adjustment) to fit trajectorial evolution in the vicinity of one periodic orbit are likely to fail when the real system moves to another region of the phase space. 4. In response to secular forcing, chaotic sets simplify via the elimination of periodic orbits. If one accepts the reality of anthropogenic warming, the long-term prediction is loss of intrinsic variability. 5. In response to periodic forcing, nonlinear systems can manifest subharmonic resonance i.e., ‘cyclic’ behavior with periods and rotation numbers rationally related to the period of the forcing. Such cycling has been implicated in millennial and stadial variations in paleoclimatic time series. 6. Generically, the dynamics of system observables, such as climate sensitivity, are qualitatively equivalent to those of the whole. If the climate is chaotic, so too is sensitivity. These considerations receive minimal attention in consensus views of climate change that emphasize essentially one-to-one correspondence between global temperatures and exogenous forcing. Caveat emptor.




Link


E&E is a known denier journal. It's ranking is 90 out of 93. No one takes it seriously in academia, it is simply where bad science goes to die.
520. yoboi
Quoting 519. Naga5000:


E&E is a known denier journal. It's ranking is 90 out of 93. No one takes it seriously in academia, it is simply where bad science goes to die.



Can you provide that ranking list???? TIA.....
Quoting 511. Cochise111:

You think that's bad, you oughtta see how awful financial planner's forecasts have been. (Check around 2006 to 2007 for the really abysmal stuff.)

Of course, you link to a satire site, so no real response is necessary...except for the traditional LOL!
Quoting 513. JohnLonergan:
Trying to push the world in to climate apocalypse so they can do the survivalism thing? Interesting idea.

The survivalism thing is kind of fun, imo.
Millions struggle to survive in America every day, since wages have been stagnant for 28 years...

Jobs,..

But, "were not gonna do any Big Legislation since its the mid-term year".

So..........
Quoting 520. yoboi:



Can you provide that ranking list???? TIA.....


It is available from here: Link The 2013 rankings will be out later this year.

Energy and Environment ranks 90 out of 93 in the Category of Environmental Studies (Social Science). *note this isn't a climate science journal

You may not have access to the ranking list (if you don't have direct database access you can get it through a "web of knowledge" access from a University or Community College, but I'm sure if you google around you can find it.

Quoting 523. Patrap:
Millions struggle to survive in America every day, since wages have been stagnant for 28 years...

Jobs,..

But, "were not gonna do any Big Legislation since its the mid-term year".

So..........

Urban survival is a different animal. I don't want to try it; don't find it interesting. My heart goes out to those who have no choice in the matter.
Pretty soon the period of temperature stagnation will be longer than the period of "global warming".

Link
Quoting 524. Naga5000:


It is available from here: Link The 2013 rankings will be out later this year.

Energy and Environment ranks 90 out of 93 in the Category of Environmental Studies (Social Science). *note this isn't a climate science journal

You may not have access to the ranking list (if you don't have direct database access you can get it through a "web of knowledge" access from a University or Community College, but I'm sure if you google around you can find it.

Ranking below E & E:

Number 91: International Journal of Made-Up Stuff

Number 92: Unicorns, Leprechauns, Honest Climate Change Contrarians, & Other Imaginary Creatures Quarterly

Number 93: Archives Of The Health Benefits Of Smoking Tobacco (sponsored by Phillip-Morris)
Quoting 527. Cochise111:

Pretty soon, denialists will have to come to grips with the fact that there has been no temperature stagnation. Nah! That's why they're called denialists. They claim there's been temperature stagnation when every valid data set for every valid 30 year period shows statistically significant warming.

Poor dears!
Quoting 527. Cochise111:
Pretty soon the period of temperature stagnation will be longer than the period of "global warming".
Congratulations, Cochise!!! You've finally done it!! You have somehow succeeded in linking to the single most asinine, insipid, ridiculous, absurd, idiotic, moronic, cretinous thing published on the internet. Ever.. With that immense Gish Gallop of profound ignorance and dishonesty, Ferrara has single-handedly lowered the bar for all denialists for all time. From this day forward, only something even more asinine, insipid, ridiculous, absurd, idiotic, moronic, and cretinous will do--and, brother, after laughing my way through Ferrara's babble, I don't believe that's possible. (Though I expect that, sadly, won't impede your continuous search.)


Can someone find the stagnation in global temperature for me? I ask because I'm not seeing it. ;-)
532. yoboi
Quoting 524. Naga5000:


It is available from here: Link The 2013 rankings will be out later this year.

Energy and Environment ranks 90 out of 93 in the Category of Environmental Studies (Social Science). *note this isn't a climate science journal

You may not have access to the ranking list (if you don't have direct database access you can get it through a "web of knowledge" access from a University or Community College, but I'm sure if you google around you can find it.




Thanks...
Quoting 531. Birthmark:


Can someone find the stagnation in global temperature for me? I ask because I'm not seeing it. ;-)
No, see, you're doing it wrong. If you begin with just exactly the right month, and end with exactly the right month, you'll see the pause. I swear.
I have been given a picture that is claimed to be of the infamous Steve Goddard. I have no idea if it is genuine. If it is, though, it would explain a lot.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
535. yoboi
The science behind all of this is thoroughly explained in the 1200 pages of Climate Change Reconsidered II, authored by 50 top scientists organized into the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), and published by the Heartland Institute in Chicago. You will want to own this volume if for no other reason than that it says here that future generations of scientists will look back and say this is the moment when we took the political out of the political science of “climate change,” and this is how we did it. Real scientists know that these 50 co-authors are real scientists. That is transparent from the tenor of the report itself.




The publication is “double peer reviewed,” in that it discusses thousands of peer reviewed articles published in scientific journals, and is itself peer reviewed. That is in sharp contrast to President Obama’s own EPA, which issued its “endangerment finding” legally authorizing regulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, without submitting the finding to its own peer review board, as required by federal law. What were they so afraid of if 97% of scientists supposedly agree with them?


Link




Very Interesting article....
Quoting 534. Birthmark:
I have been given a picture that is claimed to be of the infamous Steve Goddard. I have no idea if it is genuine. If it is, though, it would explain a lot.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
;-)

In a (wooden) head-to-(wooden) head IQ test with Goddard, even the ventriloquist's dummy would doubtlessly win.
Quoting 528. Neapolitan:
Ranking below E & E:

Number 91: International Journal of Made-Up Stuff

Number 92: Unicorns, Leprechauns, Honest Climate Change Contrarians, & Other Imaginary Creatures Quarterly

Number 93: Archives Of The Health Benefits Of Smoking Tobacco (sponsored by Phillip-Morris)


But it's not as bad as The Journal of Scientific Exploration aka "The Dog Astrology Journal".
The NIPCC? Really Yoboi? You are seriously reaching on today's links to denier disinformation.

When an organization purposefully names themselves something so similar to a real scientific organization in an attempt to cause confusion, they probably aren't pushing truth.

Besides, the NIPCC is funding by a right wing think tank. Think about that logically. Is it politically motivated?

To quote Dr. Rood: "The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all."

I guess the next question, if you believe the NIPCC is accurate, "Do you think Dr. Rood is lying to you? If so, what is his motivation?"
539. ARiot
It's fun to read the NIPCC's absurdity. They are con artists, pure and simple.
The Myths of Charles Krauthammer: The Drinking Game (Op-Ed)


Michael Mann, Penn State University | February 25, 2014 01:13pm ET

In his recent Washington Post op-ed "The myth of 'settled science,'" Charles Krauthammer delivers on only one small piece of what his headline promises: Myth. His commentary is a veritable laundry list of shopworn talking points, so predictable now in climate change denialist lore that one can make a drinking game out of it.

His cry that it is "anti-scientific" to declare climate change a "fact?" A swig of vodka to start things out. [The U.S. National Academy of Sciences has concluded that "Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities , and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems."]

Trotting out a solitary maverick scientist willing to defy the conventional scientific wisdom? A chaser of beer. [The physicist Freeman Dyson has impressive credentials in physics, but he is clearly beyond his depth in his forays into climate change. And despite Krauthammer's implications to the contrary, Dyson does not deny that humans are warming the planet and changing the climate.]

Quoting University of Alabama Huntsville scientist John Christy on climate models being "consistently and spectacularly wrong?" A double-swig of scotch for this one. [Christy recently co-authored a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed where he argued that temperatures haven't warmed as much as climate models predicted, based on an extremely misleading and inappropriate comparison of models and observations. Adding to the irony is the fact that Christy is largely known for a satellite temperature estimate that was once used to argue that the globe wasn't warming. When other scientists finally got ahold of his data and reverse-engineered his calculations, they determined this to be an artifact of errors in his algorithm in algebra and sign (i.e. a "-" sign in his calculations where there should have be a "+" sign).]

The tired claim that "there has been no change" in global temperature for 15 years? A sip of Baileys on the rocks. [Global temperatures continue to increase, and to the extent that warming has slowed slightly in recent years , it appears that natural factors are only temporarily masking Earth's increasing heat content.]

Dismissal that climate change had anything to do with the devastating impacts of superstorm Sandy? A sip of Piña Colada from a "Hurricane glass," of course. [Sandy was an unprecedented storm meteorologically. It had the lowest central pressure (one key measure of strength) of any storm ever to travel north of Cape Hatteras in the Atlantic. Unusually warm, late-fall ocean waters helped feed this intense storm. Sandy was the largest tropical storm on record in the Atlantic, and the unusually large area of tropical storm-strength winds meant larger storm surges along the U.S. east coast. The storm surge was roughly a foot higher than it would otherwise have been, because of global sea-level rise due to global warming.]

A similarly themed claim that tornado activity is actually decreasing? A shot of gin! [Krauthammer claims extreme tornado activity is down, but actual tornado experts have pre-emptively cried foul on such claims; the data are not reliable enough to determine what the trend is.]

And finally, an exploitive, cynical attempt to denounce use of the term "climate change denial" as a reference to "Holocaust denial?" A snifter of Brandy before we call it a night. [Denial is a catch-all term for the dismissal of what is plainly evident. It has no Holocaust connotations. One suspects Krauthammer is shedding crocodile tears. I might add that, as someone of Jewish descent, I find such cynical exploitation of the tragedy of Nazi Germany deeply offensive and completely unacceptable.]

The night's festivities may sadly come to a close now. But worry you not — we'll see this game played over and over again, just as long as there are cynical columnists around who are all to willing to shill for powerful vested interests even when it means jeopardizing the health of our planet.
Published on Dec 13, 2013

The winter ice pack in the Arctic was once dominated by multi-year*, thick ice. Today, very little old ice remains. This animation shows maps of sea ice age from 1987 through the end of October 2013. Age class 1 means "first-year ice," which is ice that formed in the most recent winter. The oldest ice (9+) is ice that is more than 9 years old. Animation by NOAA climate.gov, based on research data provided by Mark Tschudi, CCAR, University of Colorado.

*Revised on 2/21/14. Caption originally said "old." Revised to "multi-year" to reduce ambiguity.

542. yoboi
Quoting 538. Naga5000:
The NIPCC? Really Yoboi? You are seriously reaching on today's links to denier disinformation.

When an organization purposefully names themselves something so similar to a real scientific organization in an attempt to cause confusion, they probably aren't pushing truth.

Besides, the NIPCC is funding by a right wing think tank. Think about that logically. Is it politically motivated?

To quote Dr. Rood: "The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all."

I guess the next question, if you believe the NIPCC is accurate, "Do you think Dr. Rood is lying to you? If so, what is his motivation?"




They say their work is double peer reviewed.....Like I said I found the article interesting never said that I agree with it.....
543. yoboi
Quoting 486. FLwolverine:
Tramp, you may be in trouble already. It looks like your attorney doesn't understand the charge - he's already talking about an irrelevant and inadmissable defense.



Not according to Smith vs Wilson..... FWIW modern day law has advanced to new levels....I will ask again and maybe you responded and I missed it....where did you get your law degree????
Quoting 542. yoboi:


Like I said I found the article interesting never said that I agree with it.....

That's always your M.O.

Claim you don't agree with anything. But only post climate science denial.

There is a reason why 90% of your posts get the "-" and "!" treatment.
545. yoboi
Quoting 544. ScottLincoln:

That's always your M.O.

Claim you don't agree with anything. But only post climate science denial.

There is a reason why 90% of your posts get the "-" and "!" treatment.



How would you know what % of my post get????
January 2014's extreme weather worldwide - interactive map
The Guardian today
From temperatures as low as -36C in Russia to some of the wettest weather in the UK's history, this map shows the extreme weather events of last month from around the world. The data was sourced from the Japanese Meteorological Agency and covers all of January 2014.
Hover over each marker to see which World Meteorological Office station it was recorded at and all the details of the extremity ...
(see link above).

World begins 2014 with unusual number of extreme weather events
The Guardian today as well
UN's World Meteorological Organisation says recent extremes of heat, cold and rain are almost certainly interlinked.
Some climate scientists argue that there is nothing unusual in winter global temperature extremes but Omar Baddour, chief of the WMO data division, says the recent phenomena are almost certainly interlinked, with new computer models suggesting increased evidence of climate change. ...
Quoting 543. yoboi:



Not according to Smith vs Wilson..... FWIW modern day law has advanced to new levels....I will ask again and maybe you responded and I missed it....where did you get your law degree????
And which Smith v Wilson case might that be? The English case about contract law; the 7th circuit case on a section 1983 claim; the Mississippi case on grandparents' visitation rights?

Look, I'm not going to play games with a wannabe lawyer. You can't or won't read a scientific paper and comment on it honestly; you can't or won't answer provide evidence to support your absurd claims (eg your 10% now 30% claim on human contribution to global warming); and you rarely even answer a direct question put to you. Why should I expect you to treat the law any differently? And why should I waste my time?

As for my law degree, the information is already posted. Have fun finding it.

Done.
Zimbabwe: Coping With Rural Flooding - Lessons From Tokwe-Mukosi
The Standard, by Tonderai Matonho, 23 February 2014
...Approximately 20 000 people living upstream the Tokwe-Mukosi dam area were reported to be at high risk, while another 40 000 downstream were reported to be at moderate risk of flooding. Water levels at the Tokwe-Mukosi dam, which is currently under construction, have risen to dangerous levels, threatening many communities around it. Experts in disaster preparedness note that it is at the local level that many risks can be addressed before disasters strike. ...
... Experts note that as a result of climate change, there is more than 90% probability of heavier precipitation events in the 21st century with an increase in both frequency and the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls.
Floods will be by far the most frequent and devastating natural disasters, particularly in Africa and Asia.
Land-use changes and surface degradation have been identified as the main reasons for rural and urban flooding in Africa.



Photo: Nehanda Radio. Tokwe Mukosi Dam cracking following heavy rains
@ 535. yoboi

"Those who spread the misinformation and outright lies of the climate denial industry, are useful idiots of some of history’s coldest and greediest killers."

― Peter Sinclair
Krauthammer is the intellectual bully of the Show/Network.




Quoting 424. JohnLonergan:




Krauthammer a poster boy for the strain of anti-intellectualism that has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

With apologies to Isaac Asimov




"Any challenge to the body of knowledge comes from either a deliberate or ignorant misrepresentation of information and its implications."
553. yoboi
Quoting 547. FLwolverine:
And which Smith v Wilson case might that be? The English case about contract law; the 7th circuit case on a section 1983 claim; the Mississippi case on grandparents' visitation rights?

Look, I'm not going to play games with a wannabe lawyer. You can't or won't read a scientific paper and comment on it honestly; you can't or won't answer provide evidence to support your absurd claims (eg your 10% now 30% claim on human contribution to global warming); and you rarely even answer a direct question put to you. Why should I expect you to treat the law any differently? And why should I waste my time?

As for my law degree, the information is already posted. Have fun finding it.

Done.



really not going to search where you graduated from.... I am not a wanna be lawyer...I just decided that I would not fleece my American friends out of there hard owned money..... as for has human impacts with climate please share the
% that humans cause.......and if you need help with the case look to Ca..... the case is well defined and if I had to guess you would know what I am talking about because you cited a bs case out of all the cases....if not I will call you out as a matlock wanna be.....
IPCC: Climate Impacts ‘Are Very Evident, They’re Widespread’ And ‘We Are Not Prepared’


Humanity’s choice (via IPCC, 2013): Aggressive climate action ASAP (left figure) minimizes future warming.
Continued inaction (right figure) results in catastrophic levels of warming, 9°F over much of U.S.
Quoting 555. yoboi:


Charles is exposing the truth tonight....


Since that is what you believe, I will repost by question you dodged earlier.

To quote Dr. Rood: "The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all."

"Do you think Dr. Rood is lying to you? If so, what is his motivation?"
558. yoboi
Quoting 557. Naga5000:


Since that is what you believe, I will repost by question you dodged earlier.

To quote Dr. Rood: "The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all."

"Do you think Dr. Rood is lying to you? If so, what is his motivation?"



I don't know if Dr. Rood disagrees with me that humans can impact the climate more than 10 %.......


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare.

This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.



Major X4.9 Solar Flare

www.solarham.net

A major solar flare measuring X4.9 was just observed around returning sunspot 1967 (newly numbered 1990) at 00:49 UTC. Despite appearing to be in an advanced state of decay, the active region remains magnetically potent. This just proves that you cannot judge a book by its cover. A 10cm radio burst measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was associated with the event. The sunspot is not yet in a good geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The flare is the 3rd largest X-Ray event of the current solar cycle. More updates to follow regarding a possible CME.

Published on Feb 24, 2014

Attached video by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) captures a major X4.9 Solar Flare around sunspot 1990 at 00:49 UTC on 2/25/2014. Active region 1990 is the return of old region 1967 (and 1944 before that) from the previous rotations.The flare was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes. A Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s was recorded. A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible in the latest LASCO C2 imagery.



So far appears to be directed mostly away from Earth.

CME Update:

Attached image below by LASCO C2 captures a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun at a quick rate of speed following the X4.9 flare event Monday night. Click HERE for a movie. Because the source sunspot (1990, ex 1967) is still located near the east limb, the plasma cloud is directed mostly away from Earth. Despite this, there does appear to be an Earth directed component which could deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field by February 27th. More updates to follow in the days ahead.

Quoting 558. yoboi:



I don't know if Dr. Rood disagrees with me that humans can impact the climate more than 10 %.......


Answer the question. If you believe Krauthammer is correct and is "exposing the truth" it is at direct odds with the plethora of Dr. Rood's posts you have commented on.

Seems like you are scared. Have conviction Yoboi, if you are a science denier, wear your badge.
561. yoboi
Quoting 560. Naga5000:


Answer the question. If you believe Krauthammer is correct and is "exposing the truth" it is at direct odds with the plethora of Dr. Rood's posts you have commented on.

Seems like you are scared. Have conviction Yoboi, if you are a science denier, wear your badge.


Not a denier just a skeptic.....if Dr. Rood thinks humans impact the climate more than 10 % I will debate with him..... FWIW I predicted the Arctic sea ice correct last yr.....not like one that missed it by over 40 %......Over 40 % and he has the nerve to criticize me?????
You have predicted nothing yoboi.

You have contributed nothing yoboi.

If you exist as a farmer, I'll be glad to come and do a Wunderblog interview and give you unfettered audio for 20 minutes before I ask a single question.

I-10 leads to all points West to East in La.

:-)
563. yoboi
Quoting 562. Patrap:
You have predicted nothing yoboi.

You have contributed nothing yoboi.

If you exist as a farmer, I'll be glad to come and do a Wunderblog interview and give you unfettered audio for 20 minutes before I ask a single question.

Well, I-10 leads to all West to East in La.

:-)



Just north of Basile and I will let you help me run the crawfish traps....
Done plenty o crawfishing in my day, so no, I don't do free labor.

Pick a Day in April.

Wu mail it to me.

I have a 2 man 1 German Shepard road crew.


We will be over-nighting.

565. yoboi
Quoting 564. Patrap:
Done plenty o crawfishing in my day, so no, I don't do free labor.

Pick a Day in April.

Wu mail it to me.

I have a 2 man 1 German Shepard road crew.


We will be over-nighting.




ok I will... I will show my Cajun hospitality.....
Quoting 535. yoboi:
[...]

The publication is “double peer reviewed,” in that it discusses thousands of peer reviewed articles published in scientific journals, and is itself peer reviewed. That is in sharp contrast to President Obama’s own EPA, which issued its “endangerment finding” legally authorizing regulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, without submitting the finding to its own peer review board, as required by federal law. What were they so afraid of if 97% of scientists supposedly agree with them?

[...]


Yoboi, why are you still using peer review as a selling point for your links? Why do you act like it means something to you? You don't believe in peer review, as you clearly pointed out in Dr. Masters' blog last September:

Quoting 60. yoboi (in Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog entry #2536):


the peer review process is a joke today...it's no diffrent than going to a bar and getting a beer then ask all the drunk guys is the beer good at this place......laughing stock is what it is......


This proves that you're talking out of both sides of your mouth when you speak about peer review. It is so disingenuous and hypocritical, how can anyone take you seriously when you do this?
567. yoboi
Quoting 566. Daisyworld:


Yoboi, why are you still using peer review as a selling point for your links? Why do you act like it means something to you? You don't believe in peer review, as you clearly pointed out in Dr. Masters' blog last September:



This proves that you're talking out of both sides of your mouth when you speak about peer review. It is so disingenuous and hypocritical, how can anyone take you seriously when you do this?




Have you ever looked at the things you post??????
There has been a lot of misinformation recently about Michael Mann's legal matters, Nick Stoke has posted
Links for Mann legal matters in a tabular form for anyone interested.




Quoting 568. JohnLonergan:
There has been a lot of misinformation recently about Michael Mann's legal matters, Nick Stoke has posted
Links for Mann legal matters in a tabular form for anyone interested.







You can friend him here on FB, we have been chatting some as of late with all thats going on.
Quoting 566. Daisyworld:


Yoboi, why are you still using peer review as a selling point for your links? Why do you act like it means something to you? You don't believe in peer review, as you clearly pointed out in Dr. Masters' blog last September:



This proves that you're talking out of both sides of your mouth when you speak about peer review. It is so disingenuous and hypocritical, how can anyone take you seriously when you do this?


If NIPCC claims that their BS is double peer reviewed, it only means they had Lord Nigel Lawson and Lord Christopher Moncton look at it. The scientific creditability of these two Peers of the Realm is less than zero.
571. yoboi
Quoting 564. Patrap:
Done plenty o crawfishing in my day, so no, I don't do free labor.

Pick a Day in April.

Wu mail it to me.

I have a 2 man 1 German Shepard road crew.


We will be over-nighting.




Hey pat sent you my contact info....holla at me one day....
So, I read an opinion column just now from my town's newspaper by a guy named Tom Tucker. Tom managed a good bit of false information or incorrect items in the one column, which took up half of a page.

He opens with (of course) an omg, it's cold! statement which he somehow equates with climate.

Let's see what else, I'll paraphrase for sake of brevity.

"climate has always changed (well, at least to 2,000 years ago as he states later he does believe in God Almighty) and always will...so the assumption that climate was stable before the industrial revolution is wrong."

"accurate temperature data from weather balloons and satellites from the '50s show no warming."

"While ground-based thermometers have, but they are contaminated due to Urban Heat Island Effect."

"CO2 is a minor GHG"

"Some of these experts are mixing hype with facts."

"IPCC is a political body"

"We have been warming since the Mini Ice age...why can't the greenies figure out that there wasn't an industrial revolution in the 1500s?"

"NASA says the Sun is hottest in 100 years."

"Global warming pundits say ice is melting on Mars...there are no cars/factories on Mars."

"CO2 is good for plants, so it is good for us"

"NOAA says most of the warming happened prior to 1940, before most of CO2 was released."

The really hot years were El Nino years-1983, 1988, 1998, 2007. El Nino is unrelated to global warming."

"These people have their science misconstrued."


Whew...that was a mouthful. He also had several snarky comments in his column, again, I left those out for sake of brevity. I should send a letter to the paper asking them not to publish ideological rants based on lies and false data.
573. yoboi
Quoting 572. Astrometeor:
So, I read an opinion column just now from my town's newspaper by a guy named Tom Tucker. Tom managed a good bit of false information or incorrect items in the one column, which took up half of a page.

He opens with (of course) an omg, it's cold! statement which he somehow equates with climate.

Let's see what else, I'll paraphrase for sake of brevity.

"climate has always changed (well, at least to 2,000 years ago as he states later he does believe in God Almighty) and always will...so the assumption that climate was stable before the industrial revolution is wrong."

"accurate temperature data from weather balloons and satellites from the '50s show no warming."

"While ground-based thermometers have, but they are contaminated due to Urban Heat Island Effect."

"CO2 is a minor GHG"

"Some of these experts are mixing hype with facts."

"IPCC is a political body"

"We have been warming since the Mini Ice age...why can't the greenies figure out that there wasn't an industrial revolution in the 1500s?"

"NASA says the Sun is hottest in 100 years."

"Global warming pundits say ice is melting on Mars...there are no cars/factories on Mars."

"CO2 is good for plants, so it is good for us"

"NOAA says most of the warming happened prior to 1940, before most of CO2 was released."

The really hot years were El Nino years-1983, 1988, 1998, 2007. El Nino is unrelated to global warming."

"These people have their science misconstrued."


Whew...that was a mouthful. He also had several snarky comments in his column, again, I left those out for sake of brevity. I should send a letter to my the paper asking them not to publish ideological rants based on lies and false data.



Can you provide a link????
Quoting 573. yoboi:



Can you provide a link????


It's a newspaper yoboi, the thing is a physical item. Which happens to be sitting right here next to me. There isn't an online version that I know of, although I did try to find one.

If tramp reads the Ledger, he could confirm my quotations. The date says February 26, 2014. (I have no idea why the date is set forward one day, that's what it says on the paper.)
575. yoboi
Quoting 574. Astrometeor:


It's a newspaper yoboi, the thing is a physical item. Which happens to be sitting right here next to me. There isn't an online version that I know of, although I did try to find one.

If tramp reads the Ledger, he could confirm my quotations. The date says February 26, 2014. (I have no idea why the date is set forward one day, that's what it says on the paper.)



ok thanks for trying...
Quoting 572. Astrometeor:

It sounds like Tom Tucker knows nothing about climate that he didn't learn on Fox. ;)

I encourage you to write a letter to the editor to rebut the nonsense.
Quoting 574. Astrometeor:


It's a newspaper yoboi, the thing is a physical item. Which happens to be sitting right here next to me. There isn't an online version that I know of, although I did try to find one.

If tramp reads the Ledger, he could confirm my quotations. The date says February 26, 2014. (I have no idea why the date is set forward one day, that's what it says on the paper.)

Is it a Goodlettsville publication?
Quoting 572. Astrometeor:
So, I read an opinion column just now from my town's newspaper by a guy named Tom Tucker. Tom managed a good bit of false information or incorrect items in the one column, which took up half of a page.

He opens with (of course) an omg, it's cold! statement which he somehow equates with climate.

Let's see what else, I'll paraphrase for sake of brevity.

"climate has always changed (well, at least to 2,000 years ago as he states later he does believe in God Almighty) and always will...so the assumption that climate was stable before the industrial revolution is wrong."

"accurate temperature data from weather balloons and satellites from the '50s show no warming."

"While ground-based thermometers have, but they are contaminated due to Urban Heat Island Effect."

"CO2 is a minor GHG"

"Some of these experts are mixing hype with facts."

"IPCC is a political body"

"We have been warming since the Mini Ice age...why can't the greenies figure out that there wasn't an industrial revolution in the 1500s?"

"NASA says the Sun is hottest in 100 years."

"Global warming pundits say ice is melting on Mars...there are no cars/factories on Mars."

"CO2 is good for plants, so it is good for us"

"NOAA says most of the warming happened prior to 1940, before most of CO2 was released."

The really hot years were El Nino years-1983, 1988, 1998, 2007. El Nino is unrelated to global warming."

"These people have their science misconstrued."


Whew...that was a mouthful. He also had several snarky comments in his column, again, I left those out for sake of brevity. I should send a letter to the paper asking them not to publish ideological rants based on lies and false data.


Do it, a chance to put your writing skills to use. It's one of the ways people yourself can make others more aware. I'm old enough to remember the 60s civil rights movement, it invoved a lot of work and effort by a lot of ordinary people. Good luck, and "Keep the Faith"
Quoting 577. tramp96:

Is it a Goodlettsville publication?


The Community Ledger.

It's located in Hermitage, but it's distributed throughout Goodlettsville.
Just caught the O'Reilly rerun
Krauthammer was brilliant
Quoting 579. Astrometeor:


The Community Ledger.

It's located in Hermitage, but it's distributed throughout Goodlettsville.
Quoting 579. Astrometeor:


The Community Ledger.

It's located in Hermitage, but it's distributed throughout Goodlettsville.

For what it's worth I believe you.
Quoting 580. tramp96:
Just caught the O'Reilly rerun
Krauthammer was brilliant

Yes, the best liars frequently are brilliant. I'm sure he impressed you by telling you what wanted to hear. ;)

And with that, I'm out.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



!!! ExxonMobil CEO Doesn't Want a Fracking Operation Near His Backyard

*** Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States

!!! Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts

!!! Tepco Says Fukushima Radiation 'Significantly' Undercounted
Uh-oh



Mississippi Oil Spill Highlights Risk of U.S. Oil Boom

Ancient woodland losses 'not accounted for', say campaigners (UK)

US urges fishing ban in melting Arctic

*** Livestock diet 'can cut GHG emissions'

Forest peoples urge land rights action

!!! Climate engineering: Minor potential, major risk of side-effects?

New approach to chip design could yield light speed computing

*** Psychological side-effects of anti-depressants worse than thought

!!! Use of acetaminophen during pregnancy linked to ADHD in children, researchers say

Now in 3-D: Video of virus-sized particle trying to enter cell



Skin cancer risk may have driven evolution of black skin

* Ecotoxicity: All clear for silver nanoparticles?

* How do you build a large-scale quantum computer?

*** How did the universe begin? Hot Big Bang or slow thaw?

Rare forms of nitrogen detected in comet ISON

*** Hurricane prediction: Real time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity accuracy

!!! Cyclones and frost: Two climate change myths debunked

'Team of rivals' approach works for sparrows defending territories

Texas Crop Report


Kansas editorial roundup

Florida editorial roundup

Hundreds of cold-stunned turtles saved in Texas

Georgia editorial roundup

Florida lawmakers to talk water funding, not policy

* Researchers: 35M gallons of coal ash spilled in NC

*** Study Links Temperature to a Peruvian Glacier's Growth and Retreat

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of Astrometeor:

*** Secret funding helped build vast network of climate denial thinktanks

Livestock drought rules first in farm bill

!!! Internet trolls are also real-life trolls

Quoting 567. yoboi:




Have you ever looked at the things you post??????


So, as retribution for me pointing out the inconstancies in your statements thus causing you to lose another argument, you decide to flip it around using an irrelevant red herring attack to discuss MY behavior in the blogs?

You made the comments, yoboi, so take responsibility for them. Either you believe in the peer review process, or you don't. And you can't have it both ways by saying you believe in it some of the time, but not other times. That's like saying you only pay your taxes part of the time and not all the time because there's specific tax codes you don't like or don't believe in.

So either fess up and say you don't believe in peer review, in which case you can stop the insincere use of peer review as a validation metric. Or you can accept peer review as the best means to ensure adherence to the scientific method, in which case you have to accept the mainstream scientific consensus that global warming is happening, humans are mostly responsible, and that it's causing the climate to change which has already caused significant impacts to people and ecosystems with impacts that will grow much more severe in the coming years.

It's your choice: Accept peer review, or don't. But not both, neither, or only 10% of the time.
If one assumes as most here that the warming from 1976 to 1997 was caused by CO2 forcing, the fact that warming leveled off for the last 17 years guarantees that there are natural homeostatic mechanisms or natural forcings that are at least equal to the accelerating human forcing.

We know that the medieval warm period and the post glacial climactic optimum (don't believe in the Holocene)were a bit warmer than today, naturally.

If you want to believe we are sinners in some sort of strange penance, that is your privilege. If you claim this is science, I will have to object.
Quoting 585. azucas:
If one assumes as most here that the warming from 1976 to 1997 was caused by CO2 forcing, the fact that warming leveled off for the last 17 years guarantees that there are natural homeostatic mechanisms or natural forcings that are at least equal to the accelerating human forcing.

We know that the medieval warm period and the post glacial climactic optimum (don't believe in the Holocene)were a bit warmer than today, naturally.

If you want to believe we are sinners in some sort of strange penance, that is your privilege. If you claim this is science, I will have to object.
Your first paragraph is based on either an innocent misunderstanding or an intentional misrepresentation of what's happening--in short, there is no ' pause'. But even were that not true, the deduction you've drawn doesn't seem to be based on logic.

Your second paragraph contains another falsehood by stating that the so-called Medieval Warm Period was warmer than today. The MWP was pretty much a regional event, not a global one, so comparing it with today's planet-wide warming is guaranteed to produce false assumptions of the type you've drawn.

Your final paragraph is simply a baseless slander of both science and scientists. I say this politely: please avail yourself of some of the many non-ideological, objective science sources out there. There's a lot to learn, but there's great freedom and power in learning it.
Quoting 586. martinitony:
No Peaches
Yes, yet another casualty of our increasingly extreme weather. But that's okay; well still have California's peaches come summer.

Oh, wait...
Global Temperature Update Through 2013
21 January 2014
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy

Summary. Global surface temperature in 2013 was +0.6°C (~1.1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980
base period average, thus the seventh warmest year in the GISS analysis. The rate of global
warming is slower in the past decade than in the prior three decades. Slower growth of net climate
forcings and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean both contribute to the slower warming rate, with
the latter probably the more important effect. The tropical Pacific cooling is probably unforced
variability, at least in large part. The trend toward an increased frequency of extreme hot summer
anomalies over land areas has continued despite the Pacific Ocean cooling. The “bell curves” for
observed temperature anomalies show that, because of larger unforced variability in winter, it is
more difficult in winter than in summer to recognize the effect of global warming on the occurrence
of extreme warm or cold seasons. It appears that there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño
beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015.


More ...
Connecting the dots to win on climate

On 20 March I spoke, together with Adam Bandt MP, at a forum in Melbourne on Global warming, Tony Abbott and the need for climate action.

The second half of my presentation was on how to turn the tide, looking at the "middle third" in recent polling and Tony Abbott's and his government's vulnerability on climate, and what they are desperate to not talk about:
More and more intense extreme weather events (exemplified by their silence on the spring 2013 fires, and record January 2014 heat);
A public conversation that "connects the dots" between extreme events and climate change, and which gives immediacy to the perception of climate impacts;
Constructing a climate narrative about human climate impacts, rather than electricity prices and taxes;
Public focus on the responsibility of political leaders to "protect the people" from climate change; and
Close attention being paid to the efficacy of their "direct action" climate plan.

The key task is to sell the product (climate impacts), and not its price (carbon tax), by constructing a narrative about climate impacts that brings the message back to the home, that connects the dots, that poses the choice between increasing harm and threat, or acting to restore climate safety, and the duty of political leaders to protect the people. To do this we need to more thoroughly learn the lessons from the health promotions sector: be honest about the problem and tell it like it is; show a better alternative, the benefits of changing behaviour; and finally demonstrate an efficacious path to move from fear to success. This means making the story about:
People in Australia and not distant places;
Now and not just the distant future;
How family and friends will live in a hotter and more extreme world;
How it will affect where we live and how we work; and
Health and well-being, about increasing food and water insecurity, and the lives that children and grandchildren will face.

Some of these ideas were canvassed at greater length in "As Tony Abbott launches all-out war on climate action, what's the plan?"

This post is about the first part of my presentation, on connecting climate extremes that are being experienced today to an understanding of what climate change will mean for people in the future.

More ...
To all those who consistently downplay the dangers of the desertification of the US Southwest, there's this sobering assessment of the current situation, and hints about the very dark and uncertain future there. The summary: there ain't nearly enough water to go around now--and the situation is going to get a whole lot worse.

This one from NASA packs a wallop. It’s data, but it’s alive. 53 seconds of eerie, scorching silence.

Seeing red: temperature change over time and by region

Liquid Water Inside Greenland's Ice Sheet

Implications of the Firn Aquifer

H₂O is unlike almost all other naturally occurring substances. One of its remarkable characteristics is that when its liquid form solidifies, the resulting ice floats on the liquid. This density transition is central to why freezing water tends to tear up roads during harsh winters; and the same process likewise cracks open rocks, thereby helping to release vital mineral nutrients to the biosphere. Floating ice also protects lakes and oceans from freezing all the way to the bottom and therefore protects the life they contain during periods of prolonged cold. Considering the remarkable properties of water and ice, it's fitting that there continue to be surprising new discoveries by glaciologists studying the two polar ice sheets.

One of the most recent discoveries is a vast aquifer of liquid water that exists year-round in the very top layers of Greenland's ice sheet. Two questions immediately come to mind: How is it possible that a huge store of liquid water could be located within the ice, let alone at the top of the ice? And what are the implications for future rates of sea level rise?

The later question is especially important because the prevailing estimates are based on calculations that treat surface meltwater as either quickly running off the surface into the ocean, or penetrating to the base of the ice sheet via existing ice tunnels and then flowing fairly quickly out to the ocean via drainage channels beneath the ice sheet. However, if the increasing amounts of meltwater are instead partially stored inside the ice sheet, that could not only change the timing of sea level rise, but it could also impact the internal temperature and therefore structure and flow rate of the ice sheet.

To help understand the discovery and get a broader context on the whole situation, I spoke with glaciologist William Colgan, a researcher at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, and a member of the International Glaciological Society's executive council. He is among a new wave of scientists examining the issue of what happens to meltwater inside ice sheets (englacial hydrology).

Read More ...
Quoting 587. Neapolitan:
Your first paragraph is based on either an innocent misunderstanding or an intentional misrepresentation of what's happening--in short, there is no ' pause'. But even were that not true, the deduction you've drawn doesn't seem to be based on logic.

Your second paragraph contains another falsehood by stating that the so-called Medieval Warm Period was warmer than today. The MWP was pretty much a regional event, not a global one, so comparing it with today's planet-wide warming is guaranteed to produce false assumptions of the type you've drawn.

Your final paragraph is simply a baseless slander of both science and scientists. I say this politely: please avail yourself of some of the many non-ideological, objective science sources out there. There's a lot to learn, but there's great freedom and power in learning it.
For those who bash Neapolitan for his righteous wrath and brutal sarcastic snark, those methods are restricted to hard-core denialists who have demonstrated that they are interested in neither honest debate nor actually learning about the science of climate and climate change.

Your post, Nea, is an excellent example of how most of the regulars here who understand science react to newbies and their posts, even when those posts smack of denialism.

To the readers and lurkers here, let me say that I see Nea's response as an appropriate way to give new commenters on this blog an opportunity to engage in honest debate and ask questions about science.

When newbies ignore the invitation to honest discussion, repeatedly post denialist propaganda, and are obviously trolling or trying to disrupt the blog;s discussion, then the gloves come off and sarcasm and snark is appropriate, since the owner of this blog prefers to not limit denialism and repetitious posting of lies and dis-proven information. (I have to wonder sometimes if Dr Rood might have some colleagues in the psychology and sociology departments at the U of Michigan who using this blog as a case study for the psychology of AGW/CC denialism.)
Quoting 594. Xulonn:


(I have to wonder sometimes if Dr Rood might have some colleagues in the psychology and sociology departments at the U of Michigan who using this blog as a case study for the psychology of AGW/CC denialism.)


Either that or using the comments of our resident trolls as a demonstration of the ignorance, intellectual dishonesty, incoherence and lack of science in denier arguments.

Quoting 591. Neapolitan:
To all those who consistently downplay the dangers of the desertification of the US Southwest, there's this sobering assessment of the current situation, and hints about the very dark and uncertain future there. The summary: there ain't nearly enough water to go around now--and the situation is going to get a whole lot worse.

An extremely well-written article, with a very sobering analysis and conclusions.

Thanks, Jim.
Quoting 593. JohnLonergan:
Liquid Water Inside Greenland's Ice Sheet

Well, that's reasonably horrifying. Better add a boat to the list of things I own and don't want.
Quoting 594. Xulonn:
I have to wonder sometimes if Dr Rood might have some colleagues in the psychology and sociology departments at the U of Michigan who using this blog as a case study for the psychology of AGW/CC denialism.)

I was wondering the same thing a couple of days ago. :-)
Quoting 598. Birthmark:

I was wondering the same thing a couple of days ago. :-)


Likely. I'd give my left arm to be in UM's Sociology school. Hear that guys? :)
Quoting 597. Birthmark:

Well, that's reasonably horrifying. Better add a boat to the list of things I own and don't want.


That's why I live at elevation 800'.
Quoting 600. JohnLonergan:


That's why I live at elevation 800'.

Yeah, that should keep storm surge and SLR at bay. lol
Quoting 600. JohnLonergan:


That's why I live at elevation 800'.


I'm at 110, I'm gambling on beachfront property, the rise will have to be just perfect. I plan to open a resort.
Citing ‘Climate Crisis,’ Massachusetts Gov. Candidate Berwick Calls For Carbon Tax

One of the lesser-known Democratic candidates for Massachusetts governor, former administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Don Berwick, is calling for his state to become the first in the nation to establish a tax on carbon emissions.
In a Tuesday post on political commentary site Blue Mass Group, Berwick said an “undeniable climate crisis” was one of the driving factors in his decision to support a carbon tax. However, he also proposed replacing taxes on pollution with cuts in property and income taxes — something he said could increase Massachusetts’ GDP by $450 million per year.
“As it is written today, our tax system puts more of a burden on the activities we want to encourage — work and investment — than it puts on pollution,” Berwick wrote. “By levying a tax on harmful carbon dioxide emitted into our air, we can raise enough revenue to reduce the income and sales tax burdens for Massachusetts families and small businesses.”
Berwick’s announcement is the latest in a string of statements by candidates for the state’s highest office in support of various environmental measures including a carbon tax and cap-and-trade system, signalling the race may have a strong focus on climate-related issues.
Out of the five Democratic candidates for Massachusetts governor, Berwick is actually one of three that has expressed support for a tax on carbon pollution. Biotech executive Joe Avellone has said that he would support a revenue neutral carbon tax if elected, meaning there would be corresponding reductions in personal or corporate income taxes, and Homeland Security official Juliette Kayyem told MassLive that she would also support a carbon tax, “as long as it can be done in a revenue neutral way and does not have a disparate impact on car-dependent communities.”
The leading contender for the Democratic nomination — current Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley — has not publicly come out in support of taxing pollution, telling MassLive that she’s “not sure it’s the only solution” to climate change. Coakley has in the past, however, voiced support for a national cap-and-trade program.
Berwick has also expressed support for a mandatory cap and trade carbon emissions control system, and has said he would double the state’s investment in clean energy from 0.6 percent of the budget to 1.2 percent.
A tax on carbon emissions would be win for environmentalists and those concerned about climate change. According to a November study from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a carbon tax is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. Indeed, if the U.S. itself were to impose a carbon tax of $25 per ton of emissions, it would cut the deficit by $1 trillion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Quoting 599. Naga5000:


Likely. I'd give my left arm to be in UM's Sociology school. Hear that guys? :)

What an odd coincidence. I just read this:
"Miles O'Brien, award-winning science journalist and former CNN correspondent and anchor, revealed in a blog post that his left arm was amputated recently after an accident."

Terrible thing to happen. I wish him all the best for his recovery.
Quoting 605. SteveDa1:

In the words of Bart Simpson, "That isn't good."
607. ARiot
Quoting 603. JohnLonergan:
Citing ‘Climate Crisis,’ Massachusetts Gov. Candidate Berwick Calls For Carbon Tax

One of the lesser-known Democratic candidates for Massachusetts governor, former administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Don Berwick, is calling for his state to become the first in the nation to establish a tax on carbon emissions.


This is a real catch 22 for all of us to think about.

Short of overhauling the entire county, city, state and federal tax system that currently favors consumption, I haven't seen anything that works through unindended consequences.

Why do I think that?

Well, generally speaking, we tax consumption since our economy is based on never-ending consumption. Heck, even our social contract of low wages and cheap stuff is built on a global production and consumption model.

When you shift a sector of that, in this case carbon, you have to be prepared for the consequeces. If not, you end up with yet another significant problem somewhere in the stream.

So, I favor his idea to take a legislative look at taxing carbon. Right now we freeload off the environment, and that has to stop.

But I also think it's time for deep-reaching reforms to put the cost of carbon in the proper economic and tax policy.

Huge challenge and very little political energy to do it since everyone needs to say "I lowered taxes for most of you" to stay in office.

I fear we are stuck with an exceptionally regressive tax system for at least my lifetime.
The co-founder of Greenpeace doesn't seem to think the "science" is "settled." Here is his testimony before the US Senate:

Link
Quoting 536. Neapolitan:
;-)

In a (wooden) head-to-(wooden) head IQ test with Goddard, even the ventriloquist's dummy would doubtlessly win.


But listening to a dummy as fact brings us to this statement of consequence;

Quoting 608. Cochise111:

Oh, no! A guy said something?! lol

Publish or perish.
Quoting 602. Naga5000:


I'm at 110, I'm gambling on beachfront property, the rise will have to be just perfect. I plan to open a resort.
I'm at about 25 - but that's cause I'm on the second floor. Northen Michigan sounds better all the time.
Changing how Earth System Modelling is done to provide more useful information for decision making, science and society.

Capsule: A new mode of development for Earth System Models is needed to enable better targeted and more informative projections, for both decision makers and scientists.

Abstract

New details about natural and anthropogenic processes are continually added to models of the Earth System, anticipating that the increased realism will increase the accuracy of their predictions. However perspectives differ about whether this approach will improve the value of the information the models provide to decision makers, scientists and societies. The present bias towards increasing realism leads to a range of updated projections, but at the expense of uncertainty quantification and model tractability. This bias makes it difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with the projections from any one model, or to the distribution of projections from different models. This in turn limits the utility of climate model outputs for deriving useful information such as in the design of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, or identifying and prioritizing sources of uncertainty for reduction. Here we argue that a new approach to model development is needed, focused on the delivery of information to support specific policy decisions or science questions. The central tenet of this approach is the assessment and justification of the overall balance of model detail that reflects the question posed, current knowledge, available data and sources of uncertainty. This differs from contemporary practices by explicitly seeking to quantify both the benefits and costs of details at a systemic level, taking into account the precision and accuracy with which predictions are made when compared to existing empirical evidence. We specify changes to contemporary model development practices that would help in achieving this goal.
Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States

Abstract

Historical and projected trends in extreme precipitation events are examined in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models and observations, over the contiguous United States (CONUS), using several approaches. This study updates earlier studies that have used the extreme precipitation index (EPI) to assess observations and goes further by using the EPI to evaluate available climate model simulations. An increasing trend over the CONUS was found in the EPI, with large differences among seven subregions of the United States. Median of CMIP5 simulations also finds an increasing trend in the EPI, but with a smaller magnitude than the observations. Model spread is large and in most cases bigger than the model signal itself. Statistically significant (95th confidence level) increasing trends in the observational-based EPI occur over the Midwest and Eastern regions, while most decreasing trends occur over Western regions. Some models give negative correlation coefficients relative to observations. However, some ensemble members, for most models, show correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. Projections of extreme precipitation event frequency, for representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, show increasing trends over the CONUS. Both scenarios give a steady increase throughout the period but the RCP 4.5 signal is smaller in magnitude. Overall, the RCP scenarios show an increase across all regions with the exception of some variability between decades in some regions for RCP 4.5. For the CONUS model spread is smaller than the projected signal. Regional analyses show overall agreement among models of a future increase in extreme precipitation event frequency over most regions.

More ...
Quoting 608. Cochise111:
The co-founder of Greenpeace doesn't seem to think the "science" is "settled." Here is his testimony before the US Senate:
Still trying to have it both ways, are you Sparky? Ten thousand scientists tell you the planet is warming, and you shout, "Nonsense! Experts know nothing!" But then a single person proclaims that the planet isn't warming, and you guys run around shouting, "See?! See?!"

It makes no sense.

So why don't you tell us once and for all: should we accept what the "experts" have to say, or shouldn't we?
Oooh, a tense moment ensues,

..,drumm roll please?
Dr. Ricky Rood, U of Michigan, climatologist, Educator, wunderground.com blogger

"The lobby opposing climate-change science is fundamentally political. A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive. It is not a threat to the science-based knowledge we have of our climate. It is, however, a much deeper threat to us all."
"A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications. It is effectively disruptive."

Perhaps in this case...but...not necessarily
Bridgegate comes into that realm too I spect, so yes.
Please share this for it is very important that the "word" gets out to the hearing impaired on severe weather alerts, and it ain't happening like it should.


FCC's new closed captioning rules had long journey
FCC rules aimed at stopping inaccurate closed captioning took ten years to become a reality. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler made it a priority of his regime.


"Five wins and a very light power reese know" sounds more like gibberish than a weather forecast.
But that was the closed caption that hearing-impaired people got during a report from the WeatherNation channel last month. What the caption was supposed to say was, "high winds and a very light, powdery snow."
Closed captioning is designed to help the deaf and hearing-impaired enjoy television and receive important news and weather reports.
Unfortunately, captions are often riddled with typos and incomplete sentences that leave viewers struggling to make sense of what is being said.
ON LOCATION: Where the cameras roll
"It's frustrating," said Cheryl Simpson, a hearing-impaired Norfolk, Va., resident who often has to rely on her husband to tell her what's happening on the screen.
During emergency news alerts, she said, "The stuff you see on the crawl does not match what they are saying."
Tom Wheeler agrees. On Thursday, the Federal Communications Commission chairman issued new rules that the regulatory agency hopes will improve closed captioning, which is mandated by the 1996 Telecommunications Act.
"Something needs to be done," Wheeler said of the current state of closed captioning.
The FCC will require that captions match spoken words in dialogue and convey background noises and other sounds to the fullest extent possible, according to agency officials familiar with the order.
PHOTOS: Box office top 10 of 2013 | Biggest flops of 2013
The order will also mandate that captions not block other content on the screen, overlap one another, run off the edge of the video screen or be blocked by other information.
The bar will be slightly lower for news, sports and other programming that airs live as opposed to entertainment programming that is completed weeks before airing.
However, the agency still wants improvement on the often sloppy captioning that accompanies live programming.
At the FCC meeting, Claude Stout, executive director of Telecommunications for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, stressed the need for better captioning of news programming.
"One of the most frightening moments for my wife and I was the sniper shootings that took place in late 2002," Stout said, using sign language. "Local stations in my area showed breaking news on the latest developments, but they were not captioned. We felt trapped and helpless."
FACES TO WATCH 2014: Digital media
The first TV programming ever to feature captioning was the PBS cooking show "The French Chef" with Julia Child in 1972. But closed captioning didn't become commonplace until the 1990s.
And even when it became a requirement in 1996, the FCC didn't foresee the need for any sort of quality control requirements for the industry.
"The lack of consistency in the quality of TV captioning demonstrates that the original assumptions that the marketplace would ensure quality captions have not borne out," said Karen Peltz Strauss, deputy of the FCC's Consumer and Governmental Affairs Bureau.


Wheeler not only expressed frustration about the current state of closed captioning, but he also wasn't happy with how long it took the agency to act on concerns about it.
The FCC was first asked to address the state of closed captioning a decade ago and issued a notice of proposed rules to try to improve the situation in 2005. The matter has pretty much been in limbo until Wheeler, who was sworn in as chairman last November, made it a priority.

"Ten years is too slow a pace," Wheeler said at the meeting, and then signed, "This is only the beginning."
The majority of closed captioning is outsourced by TV stations and broadcast and cable networks. Jill Toschi, vice president for operations at the National Captioning Institute, said the FCC's actions are a "very positive step" and send a "strong message that caption producers need to be committed quality."
Wheeler promised that the FCC won't forget about this issue going forward.
"We'll keep pace with how it's working," he said.
Could the FCC issue fines to anyone falling short of their expectations?
"We'll see," Wheeler said.

joe.flint@latimes.com
I'm not saying it doesn't often work in a variety of specific instances......just that it is not a very good broad strokes definition of the term 'political tactic'
Well with the likes of Sen. Inhofe and his position being used to silence the Data on Climate Change, one has to call a spade a spade, as it is what it iz, least to many.

A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications.
Quoting 623. Patrap:
Well with the likes of Sen. Inhofe and his position being used to silence the Data on Climate Change, one has to call a spade a spade, as it is what it iz, least to many.

A political tactic is the deliberate, distorted misrepresentation of information and its implications.


It should read "A political tactic 'can be'....not, necessarily, 'is'
Dry wines are the new thing in California? .... This is really getting serious now.
Quoting 617. Patrap:
Oooh, a tense moment ensues,

..,drumm roll please?
Hmmm... No answer. Are we surprised?
Quoting 624. presslord:


It should read "A political tactic 'can be'....not, necessarily, 'is'
Perhaps what Dr R meant to write was: Deliberate distorted misrepresentation of information and its implication is a political tactic.
Climate change one of the most serious threats we face, says David Cameron
The Guardian, Wednesday 26 February 2014 13.45 GMT
PM makes forthright defence of coalition's record of action on man-made climate change during prime minister's questions.
David Cameron has issued his strongest declaration that climate change is man-made when he said it was one of the most serious threats facing Britain and the rest of the world.
The prime minister, who appeared to be wary in recent weeks of drawing a direct link between the effects of industrialisation and climate change, issued his unequivocal statement after Ed Miliband suggested he was unwilling to take tough action. ...



A car drives through flood water on the Somerset Levels on January 29, 2014 near Langport in Somerset' Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

UK floods: raise roads and redesign houses, engineers say
The Guardian, Tuesday 25 February 2014 05.59 GMT
Redesigned houses, energy-generating coastal defences and raised roads preferable to dredging or tree-planting
Ehh, in the first moment when I read the title I thought I'd have missed April 1 or some fairy tale :-) But it's in ernest:

Smell of forest pine can limit climate change - researchers
Matt McGrath By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, 26 February 2014 Last updated at 20:42 GMT
New research suggests a strong link between the powerful smell of pine trees and climate change.

Scientists say they've found a mechanism by which these scented vapours turn into aerosols above boreal forests.
These particles promote cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space and helping clouds to form.
The research, published in the journal Nature, fills in a major gap in our understanding, researchers say.
One of the biggest holes in scientific knowledge about climate change relates to the scale of the impact of atmospheric aerosols on temperatures. ...
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they "continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to estimates and interpretations of the Earth's changing energy budget." ...
One of the most significant but least understood sources of aerosols are the sweet-smelling vapours found in pine forests in North America, northern Europe and Russia.
These aerosols have confounded climate models as scientists haven't been able to accurately predict how many of the particles form.
Now an international team of researchers say they have solved the chemical mystery by which the rich odours become reflective, cooling particles. ...


--------------------------

Link to the original article (summary with some figures) in "Nature":

A large source of low-volatility secondary organic aerosol
Nature 506, 476–479 27 February 2014
Posted a new blog today, any comments, discussion, or feedback would be appreciated. :) Link
631. yoboi
Quoting 627. FLwolverine:
Perhaps what Dr R meant to write was: Deliberate distorted misrepresentation of information and its implication is a political tactic.


I can sign onto that...
Climate Change Is Increasing Extreme Heat Globally

Published: February 26th, 2014

Despite reports of a global warming "hiatus," a new study shows that the number of areas being affected by extreme heat are on the rise and that the hottest temperatures on the planet are also increasing.

The idea of a hiatus comes from reports of recent slowing in the rise of the globe’s average temperature. But average temperature is only one measure of the state of the Earth’s climate, and in some ways, it’s a rather poor one. After all, nobody actually experiences the planet’s average temperature.


Extreme heat and dry conditions have helped lower Lake Mead's water level precipitously. New research shows more areas around the globe have experienced extremely high temperatures and those temperatures are on the rise since 1997.
Credit: ChrisMRichards/Flickr


Extreme temperatures are another metric, one that’s much more pertinent to people’s lives and livelihoods. Higher temperatures can reduce crop yields and drive up energy usage. And heat waves are the No. 1 weather-related killer in the U.S. There is evidence that suggests heat waves are becoming more likely due to climate change. Analyses of heat waves in Russia in 2010, Texas in 2011, and Australia in 2012 have all indicated that climate change played a role in making these events more likely.

In a commentary published in Nature Climate Change on Wednesday, researchers looked at changes in the prevalence of extremely high temperatures over land since 1979. Their analysis runs through 2012, the last year for which data are available.

“This study shows that the frequency of hot extremes over land has continued to increase in the last 15 years, despite an apparent stabilization of the global mean temperature,” study lead author and ETH Zurich researcher Sonia Seneviratne said in an email.

To perform the analysis, two datasets were used to essentially divvy the globe’s land into grids and then look at shifts in the number of areas experiencing 30 days of extreme heat per year compared to the 1979-2010 average. The study defined extreme heat as daily temperatures in the top 10 percent for a given area.

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The study shows that in some years, natural variability gives extreme high temperatures a boost. During 1997 and El Niño years, there are noticeably more places with 30 hot days, which may be expected since El Niño tends to drive global temperatures up, too. However, the upward trend of extreme temperatures in both datasets is in line with projections that show extreme and record high temperatures and the number of heat wave days are likely to increase in many regions of the world due to climate change.

Seneviratne and her colleagues also looked to see at how temperatures above the 95th percentile have changed since 1997, a period that coincides with the reported slow down in global warming.

In spring, summer, and fall, most parts of the globe have seen extreme temperatures rise even more. Parts of Europe, South America, and the eastern U.S. have seen the most consistent rise across all three seasons. Extreme high temperatures have increased by up to 2.7°F per decade in those areas.

Winter is the one seasonal exception where extreme heat has taken a nosedive in widespread areas. In much of Russia, Canada, and the eastern U.S., extreme high temperatures have actually cooled by 2.7°F or more per decade. That is somewhat offset by parts of the Southwest U.S., Africa and South America seeing increases of a similar magnitude. Previous research has shown that winter cooling is the biggest seasonal chunk of the global warming slow down when looking at the globe’s average temperatures.

Regional differences are also noticeable when looking at annual changes. In much of South America, Europe, and the Arctic and Greenland, extreme temperatures have increased by as much as 2.7°F per decade. Much of the U.S. has seen the hottest of the hot temperatures increase 0.9°F to 1.8°F per decade. Interestingly, cold extremes across the globe are also getting colder but the trend is not nearly as strong.

“The reasons for the stronger increase of hot extremes compared to mean temperature over land is not totally clear,” Seneviratne said.

An increase in dry conditions in some regions of the globe could be triggering the rise in temperatures, she said. Drought and heat tend to work in concert. Dry conditions mean soil can’t “sweat” and reduce the surrounding air temperatures, which can trigger a warming and drying feedback loop similar to what played out in 2012 when a historic drought spread across the U.S.

Though this study only includes data through 2012, record heat has been a recurring theme throughout the globe since then. High temperature records were set in Alaska and Siberia in the summer of 2013. And 2014 began with heat waves in Australia, Argentina and Brazil, while Western Europe has seen record or near-record warmth.

“Previous studies have discussed the global mean temperature hiatus and possible causes,” said Markus Donat, a postdoctoral researcher at Australia’s Climate Change Research Centre who also worked on the study. “We show that the ‘hiatus’ is no general phenomenon. We don't see it when looking at the upper tail of the temperature distribution.”

Peter Stott, the head of climate monitoring and attribution at the U.K. Met Office, also agreed the study showed the concept of a hiatus is overblown.

“This paper provides additional evidence that the importance of the so-called ‘hiatus’ in global mean temperatures has been exaggerated in some quarters,” he said in an email. “In fact, additional energy continues to be accumulated in the climate system as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and this is causing many changes in climate, which have continued unabated.”

Understanding the cause for the relative plateau in the Earth’s average temperature is still an important scientific undertaking since it will ultimately help researchers improve models and understand how different factors affect the climate system.

But it’s also clear that other signs of climate change are continuing to occur, including increases in extreme temperatures, rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, and more extreme precipitation events. Understanding and documenting those changes provide important information about what adaptations are needed to cope with changing extremes.

Photographer: Gary Braasch/Zuma Press
Qori Kalis glacier flowing from Quelccaya Ice Field in Peru.


Peru Glacier Retreat Caused by Rising Temperatures, Study Finds

By Jeremy van Loon Feb 25, 2014 4:22 PM CT

Peru’s Quelccaya ice cap, the world’s largest tropical ice sheet, is shrinking because of rising temperatures, according to a study by Dartmouth College.

Dartmouth’s research suggests “that these tropical glaciers are shrinking very rapidly today because of a warming climate,” said Meredith Kelly, one of the study’s authors, in a preview of the paper.

The rapid retreat of the Peruvian glacier, which sits at 18,000 feet (5,486 meters) in the Andes, has resulted in a debate about whether temperature, precipitation or other factors were causing the decline in ice mass, according to the study. Nine mountain ranges around the world lost on average 0.6 meters of water equivalent in the 2011-2012 season, according to the most recent figures available by the World Glacier Monitoring Service.

Justin Stroup and Kelly of Hanover, New Hampshire-based Dartmouth College compared the retreat of a glacier that emerges from the ice cap with annually dated ice-core records to establish a connection between temperature and the long-term fluctuations of the ice sheet, according to the study published today in the journal Geology.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy van Loon in Calgary at jvanloon@bloomberg.net

Getty Image

Effects of smog akin to nuclear winter

Toxic air pollution in China impeding photosynthesis and could seriously affect country's food supply, experts warn

27 Feb 2014

BEIJING Scientists in China have warned that the country's toxic air pollution is now so bad that it resembles a nuclear winter, slowing photosynthesis in plants and potentially wreaking havoc on the country's food supply.

Beijing and broad swathes of six northern provinces have spent the past week blanketed in a dense smog that is not expected to abate until today. Beijing's concentration of PM2.5 particles those small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream hit 541 micrograms per cubic metre yesterday afternoon, or beyond index, according to a United States Embassy pollution monitor, before falling to 165 in the unhealthy range last night.

The World Health Organization recommends a safe level of 25; the last time PM2.5 dropped below 150 in Beijing was on Feb 19.

Ms He Dongxian, an associate professor at China Agricultural University's College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, said new research suggested that if the smog persists, Chinese agriculture will face conditions somewhat similar to a nuclear winter. She has demonstrated that air pollutants adhere to greenhouse surfaces, cutting the amount of light inside by about 50 per cent and severely impeding photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert light into life-sustaining chemical energy.

She tested the hypothesis by growing one group of chilli and tomato seeds under artificial lab light, and another under a suburban Beijing greenhouse. In the lab, the seeds sprouted in 20 days; in the greenhouse, they took more than two months.They will be lucky to live at all, Ms He told the South China Morning Post newspaper.

She warned that if the pollution does not ease, China's agricultural production could be seriously affected.Now almost every farm is caught in a smog panic, she said.

The Chinese government has repeatedly promised to address the problem, but enforcement remains patchy. In October, Beijing introduced a system of emergency measures if pollution levels remained hazardous for three consecutive days, including closing schools, shutting some factories, and restricting the use of government cars. According to China's state newswire Xinhua, 147 industrial companies in Beijing have cut or suspended production. Yet schools stayed open and government cars remained on the road.

The heavy smog in the capital may draw new scrutiny to government pledges to ease pollution around the country as leaders gather for the annual meeting of China's legislature, the National People's Congress, which begins next Wednesday. At the end of last year's event, Premier Li Keqiang promised to clean up pollution and said smog gave him a heavy heart.

One person not put off by the smog was President Xi Jinping, who made an unannounced visit on Tuesday to a trendy area popular with tourists. The visit prompted approving coverage in Chinese news reports, but also mockery on social media sites. Xi Jinping visits Beijing's Nanluoguxiang amid the smog: Breathing together, sharing the fate, said a Xinhua headline.

Mr Li Guixin, a resident of Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei province near Beijing, has sued the local environmental protection bureau for failing to rein in the smog, saying it owed him the 10,000 yuan (S$2,065) he spent on an air purifier, masks and a treadmill to exercise indoors. He is the first person to sue the government over pollution.

Ms Li Yan, a climate and energy expert at Greenpeace East Asia, said the case could bring exposure to polluted cities outside of Beijing. She said:People ... in Beijing are suffering from polluted air, but we have the attention of domestic and international media. Shi-jiazhuang's environmental problems are far more serious and this case could bring Shijiazhuang the attention it has deserved for a long time. AGENCIES
No warming hiatus for extreme hot temperatures
PhysOrg, 43 minutes ago
Extremely hot temperatures over land have dramatically and unequivocally increased in number and area despite claims that the rise in global average temperatures has slowed over the past 10 to 20 years.
Scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and international colleagues made the finding when they focused their research on the rise of temperatures at the extreme end of the spectrum where impacts are felt the most.
"It quickly became clear, the so-called "hiatus" in global average temperatures did not stop the rise in the number, intensity and area of extremely hot days" said one of the paper's authors Dr Lisa Alexander.
"Our research has found a steep upward tendency in the temperatures and number of extremely hot days over land and the area they impact, despite the complete absence of a strong El Niño since 1998." ...

EDITORIAL in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

I emboldened the last two paragraphs which are the most important things to take from the editorial.

Scientist communicators

The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide — but mainly to dismiss climate science.

Man-made climate change has been in the news for many years. Previously the message presented to the public was clear: climate change is global warming and that means the temperatures are going to rise unless we do something. This claim seemed to be supported by measurements of continuous increases of atmospheric CO2 — at a rate not seen before in the historical record — and associated temperature increases. Additionally, projections from climate models seemed to confirm that this was the new normal.

But does the public understand how climate models work? The projections from models are presented without much additional information on how they were obtained. A model is a simplified representation of the Earth's climate system based on knowledge of its various components — physical, biological and chemical processes — and their interactions and feedbacks. A projection of future climate can be made by applying a selected scenario of anthropogenic emissions (and therefore concentrations) or radiative forcing, which is a possible representation of what will happen. The outcome will depend on the scenario and model used as well as the initial conditions. Projections are reported from a number of runs, an ensemble, to capture the most likely future climate. Models for climate change projection using emissions scenarios work best by forecasting over the longer term. But most of us think in the here and now, so the message on climate change might have been heard on a different timescale from what the scientists intended. To complicate things even more, in the past decade the climate hasn't warmed at the rate projected, and evidence of the slowdown in temperature rise has sparked a lively scientific and public debate, as highlighted this month by a collection of articles in our Focus 'Recent slowdown in global warming'.

The media reporting of a 'hiatus' came as a surprise to the public. Prior to this, the message had been of continuous warming — to be suddenly told that this was not true led to confusion. Questions started to arise as to whether the previous message had been incorrect — was global warming not happening? This, at least, was the take of sceptics who almost immediately organized their campaign to weaken the case for governments' action on climate change, as Bob Ward explains in his interview on page 170. Their campaign, thanks also to some media representations, was unfortunately successful as the seeds of doubt were quickly sown in the minds of the public. In a Commentary on page 156, Maxwell Boykoff specifically examines the media reporting and highlights how easy it was to confuse the public discourse around the complexity of climate change. The scientists did not help either, as they were quite slow at responding and, according to Ward, showed a lack of understanding of the rules of public engagement.

The response from the scientific community was to emphasise that climate change is a long-term concern, while the hiatus is a temporary phenomenon, and to highlight that natural variability has a role to play in the shorter term. The climate system consists of many natural cycles operating on differing timescales, and in combination they result in short-term natural variability. These can work to lower, or raise, the global mean surface temperature through heat uptake or release from the oceans, among other processes. There is a lot of uncertainty associated with these cycles that carries through to model representations and projections. As Ward explains, whilst reducing uncertainty is a key research question, it should not be the starting point in communication. The surprise of the slowdown in warming and the subsequent media engagement by scientists, with a focus on uncertainties, leaves the public questioning what is actually known.

Researchers should have reiterated that the science on long-term climate change is solid and widely agreed on — 97% of scientists working in the subject support the principle of anthropogenic climate change (W. R. L. Anderegg, J. W. Prall, J. Harold and S. H. Schneider, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 12107–12109; 2010). Then, the questions about why the timing of the hiatus had not been predicted should have been addressed.

In the recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group I — who assess the physical science basis of climate change — made it clear that the climate system has been warming unequivocally and that many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Over the same period of time, greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea levels have risen (IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. et al.) Cambridge Univ. Press; 2013). This is what is known and is what communication efforts should focus on. But communication does not work if it is not tailored to the targeted audience — in this case the general public. And addressing the public is an ongoing job scientists should proactively take on.


My bold




Climate Change: Evidence & Causes

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, accompanied by sea-level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related changes.

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat (infrared radiation) emitted from Earth’s surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases cause Earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities - especially the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution - have increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations by about 40%, with more than half the increase occurring since 1970. Since 1900, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F). This has been accompanied by warming of the ocean, a rise in sea level, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and many other associated climate effects. Much of this warming has occurred in the last four decades. Detailed analyses have shown that the warming during this period is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change, including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate. The magnitude and timing of these changes will depend on many factors, and slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more will continue to occur. However, long-term climate change over many decades will depend mainly on the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted as a result of human activities.

Project background

The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, offer this new publication as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate change science. The publication makes clear what is well established, where consensus is growing, and where there is still uncertainty. It is written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national science academies, as well as the newest climate change assessment from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This work was kindly supported by the Raymond and Beverly Sackler US-UK Scientific Forum.

Link to the report:
Climate Change Evidence & Causes(PDF)
Is this fear mongering or good advice about the radiation coming to the west coast?
Link
From Quark Soup:

The Pause That Ain't
Tamino has been making a strong case that the trend of surface temperatures isn't any different than it has been since 1975, except for some ordinary fluctuations about the trend. He's giving away his graphs for free, and they're worth reproducing.

Here, in 5 short steps, is his proof that there is no pause.

First, take the Cowtan & Way data for surface temperatures, which is HadCRUT4 infilled by kriging. (This has a nice introduction to kriging, if you 're looking for one.)

Plot the annual value from 1975 to 2000:



Determine the linear trend:




and the uncertainty of that trend:




In this chart, the first dashed line on either side of the trendline (which is the solid line) is the 1-standard deviation value, and the second dashed line outside it is the 2-standard deviation value.

Project these trend lines to the present:





Add in the annual Cowtan & Way anomalies up to 2013:





What you see is that the present (last) anomaly is not even one standard deviation below the 1975-2000 trend. No different than it's often before.

It's hard to make it more clear than this. By calculating the trend only "since 1998" or only "for the last 17 years" or the like, with nonkriged data, you're only presenting a piece of the picture -- a highly selected piece -- a picture where the early data is above the long-term trendline, and the later data is below the long-term trendline. (And not even below it by that much.) It's the SkS escalator graph but looking just at the last step.

By the way, the C&W trend since 1975 is 0.166 ± 0.017 °C/decade (1-sigma, OLS uncertainty, R2 = 0.83). Tamino's value for sigma includes autocorrelation, which is why it's larger than the one here.

As tamino wrote, "If that’s what you call a pause,' then it’s not a very impressive one."
There's something a happening here,
what it is, is perfectly clear.


How Much Warming Since 1950? This Much.

From last week's Science magazine, from Gabi Hegerl and Peter Stott:



This says that internal variability, which Judith Curry likes to emphasize, is only about 1 part in 6.
A much more toxic, fast-producing oceanic algae is replacing the Swan River's phytoplankton, according to a world-renowned environmental scientist.

Curtin University researcher Dr Jacob John has studied algae in Perth's river systems for more than 30 years and says a decline in rainfall is pushing sea algae, known as red tide organisms, into the upper reaches of the Swan River.

Algae blooms strip the river of oxygen, killing fish.



Read more: Link
A mass die-off of scallops near Qualicum Beach on Vancouver Island is being linked to the increasingly acidic waters that are threatening marine life and aquatic industries along the West Coast.

Rob Saunders, CEO of Island Scallops, estimates his company has lost three years worth of scallops and $10 million dollars — forcing him to lay off approximately one-third of his staff.

“I’m not sure we are going to stay alive and I’m not sure the oyster industry is going to stay alive,” Saunders told The Parksville Qualicum Beach NEWS. “It’s that dramatic.”


Link
Lack of rainy days smashes city records
Meanwhile, temperatures have averaged 31.9 degrees Celsius during summer – Perth’s average summer maximum temperature is normally 30.2 degrees.

The persistent hot, dry weather is caused by a lack of cold fronts moving up from the south-west allowing continual high pressure systems to sit over the city for months on end.

“All we have seen is high pressure systems moving in one after the other,” Mr Bennett said.


Read more: Link
Antarctic circumpolar current carries 20 percent more water than previous estimates

By analyzing four years of continuous measurements of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at Drake Passage, the narrowest point in the Southern Ocean, oceanographers have concluded that the current carries 20 percent more water than previous estimates. They also found that the current remains strong all the way to the seafloor.

Link
New feedback mechanism discovered!

Hard to tell how important this is, but it just might turn out to be very important. You know that smell you get when you're near a pine forest on a hot day? Turns out the chemicals being released by the trees combine with oxygen in the air to form aerosols, which reflect back incoming sunlight, helping to cool the surface. These aerosols also promote cloud formation and further cooling.

It's tempting to think that this is an evolutionary stratagem that the trees have evolved to protect themselves against heat stress, but the article below doesn't speculate on this.

It opens up a whole new big can of worms. The researchers say that, in a warmer world, the trees will produce more of these chemicals, and offset the warming, to some extent. However, as the boreal forest area warms, the insect pests of the trees proliferate strongly. The pine bark beetle, for example, has devastated millions of square miles of pine forests in North America and Siberia.

This is mainly due to heat stress and drought weakening the ability of the trees to defend themselves against infestation. It's also due to the fact that the beetles breed more at higher temperatures. I'm inclined to think that the dieback of boreal forests in a warmer world will more than offset any increase in aerosol production by the remaining healthy trees, enhancing the warming, but it's a very complex subject. Maybe one that Dr. Masters or Dr Rood could write an article on in the future.

Link

Scientist-versus-activist debates mislead the public

The UK floods show the need to address the risks of climate change, but news teams still insist on pitching experts against sceptics, says Simon L. Lewis.

The British are famous for conversations about the weather, and this winter there has been much to talk about. The United Kingdom’s December–February rainfall was the highest since records began in 1910. Tracts of southern England have been flooded for weeks. The army has been deployed to build flood defences. Once again, climate change has floated to the top of the UK political agenda.

Extreme weather tends to do that — a similar dynamic has been seen across the world. After Hurricane Sandy hit the United States in 2012, climate change became a presidential election issue. In Australia, floods, droughts and heatwaves have pushed the topic in a way that reports from climate scientists could not.

As a scientist who has been on the wrong end of climate change misreporting (see Nature 468, 7; 2010), this surge of interest begs the question: has the often dysfunctional relationship between science and the media improved this time around?

Certainly, the question posed by journalists in response to an extreme weather event — “Is this caused by climate change?” — is sensible and good news. Such questioning implicitly accepts the basic science that the climate is changing and that human activity has a central role. It moves the discussion on to the severity of the impacts, rather than the existence of a problem.

It is a promising question, but too often we hear that no single weather event can be attributed to climate change. Although that used to be the case, research has moved on. Last September, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published analyses from 18 research groups examining 12 extreme weather events from 2012 (hurricanes, droughts, severe cold, floods and heatwaves) and concluded that anthropogenic climate change was a contributing factor to half of the extremes examined. The answer to “Is it caused by climate change?” is now: “I’ll tell you after the analyses are complete and the results have been published.”

Yet the people directly affected — the public — have a different question for scientists: “Will this happen to me again?” In other words, is the current event in line with what we expect to be happening? Will this type of event occur with increased frequency or magnitude in the future? For the UK floods, the answer is an uncontroversial “yes”. A 2004 report by the then government chief scientist David King identified flooding as a serious impact of climate change for the United Kingdom.

By approaching questions about extreme weather and climate change in this way, scientists can avoid a common trap set by ‘climate sceptics’ and the media: drawing us into a refusal to say definitively whether a given event is caused by climate change. Furthermore, this approach separates scientists from such sceptics because focusing on past predictions and model projections — even if uncertain — highlights that climate contrarians have not produced alternative predictive models, and therefore have little to contribute.

Some things have not improved this time around, however. The reporting on the UK floods again shows that scientists must be more vocal if the public are to receive more-accurate information from the media. Extreme events that are consistent with climate-change projections should open public debate about risk and societal responses. Images of flooded homes illustrate the danger to long-term investments that really matter to people. The demand is there for a valuable discussion, first on the science — the past projections and the results of attribution studies — and then on the possible political responses. Instead, the United Kingdom was again treated to a series of scientist-versus-climate-contrarian debates that conflate the two.

Most controversially, BBC Radio 4’s news programme Today broadcast a debate between leading climatologist Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London and Britain’s most influential climate contrarian, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nigel Lawson. Unsurprisingly, Lawson mangled the science, incorrectly stating that there had been no recent global increase in air temperature and that measurements of ocean temperature were “pure speculation”. BBC editorial guidelines state: “The BBC must not knowingly and materially mislead its audiences. We should not distort known facts.” Clearly, the BBC failed.

Why does this happen? In short, producers do not want an inbox of complaints, and climate sceptics complain if they are not represented. And executives might feel they need to ‘be fair’ by bringing in sceptics. Of course, accuracy is in conflict with this notion of balance. So scientists should debate science with other scientists — there is enough disagreement about the details of climate change to give the BBC their desired conflict. If Lawson is to be wheeled out to debate climate change, then let him argue on policy responses with another activist who promotes a different plan of action. Lawson leads a policy-advocate organization, so put him up against the head of Greenpeace. It would be a lively debate. Separating the science from the policy response in this way is crucial to avoid mismatching interviewees as the BBC has done, with inevitably misleading consequences.

When this separation does not happen, scientists of all stripes should kick up a fuss. As a starting point, here is Lawson’s BBC interview transcript: go.nature.com/nvrhar. And here is the complaint form: go.nature.com/boofqk.

Nature 506, 409 (27 February 2014) doi:10.1038/506409a
Quoting 641. Pipejazz:
Is this fear mongering or good advice about the radiation coming to the west coast?
Link


Fear mongering.

The radioactive contamination of Pacific waters is a very real issue just off the coast of Fukushima. But it's really, really not an issue for the US west coast.

Consider this: the U.S. safety limit for cesium levels in drinking water is 7,400 Becquerels per cubic meter (a Becquerel is a measurement of the number of radioactive decay events per second).

Canadian researchers have been measuring the radioactive 'plume' of water from Fukushima, which is hitting their coast first. Their most recent tests show that cesium levels have increased just 0.9 Becquerels per cubic meter. That's barely noise level.

Furthermore, 'uncontaminated' seawater already contains several Becquerels per cubic meter of cesium - most of it from atomic testing in the 40s and 50s.

So, in summary, radiation from Fukushima will be less than the residual we already have from atomic testing 60 years ago - and far, far less than safe limits for drinking water.

In fact, you get 15 times more radiation from a banana. And a pound of coffee has more than 400 Becquerels.

But watch for a lot more of this kind of coverage - not because it's a real issue, but because people are scared to death of radioactivity, even though they are absolutely surrounded by it.

And scary issues generate lots of page hits.
From Watching the Deniers:

Lock the gates and take to the streets for climate change justice (my first article as a citizen journalist)



Dear all, I’m very proud that I managed to get a piece published with Independent Australia.

Its called “Lock the gates and take to the streets for climate change justice.”

If those of good conscience and moral courage do not act now, then we leave the fate of future generations to men like Abbott…

We need to shake-the-tree and rouse the Australian public from its present indifference. We need to pierce the walls of apathy and the pacifying effects of infotainment that currently cocoon the public from the challenge of climate change.

In order to achieve this we must, out of necessity, engage in acts of dissent and non-violent protest.

It is time to embrace all forms of civil disobedience.

Fortunately we do not need to wait for a leader of Martin Luther King’s or Mahatma Gandhi’s stature to inspire or instruct us.

There are three things you can do today ‒ right now ‒ that will help this campaign of civil disobedience.


Got to their site to see the full article – every click helps me!

And please, spread via social media.

Thanks!
Only slightly off-topic, and pretty relevant in a meta sense:

Click for the whole piece:

humor
Quoting 651. JohnLonergan:
Scientist-versus-activist debates mislead the public
That is a superb essay, John, and all of us here should read it - including Dr. Rood.

The answer to “Is it caused by climate change?” is now: “I’ll tell you after the analyses are complete and the results have been published.

"By approaching questions about extreme weather and climate change in this way, scientists can avoid a common trap set by ‘climate sceptics’ [a polite term for AGW/CC denialists] and the media: drawing us into a refusal to say definitively whether a given event is caused by climate change."
656. yoboi
Oh Sheldon.....Is that the topic around the cooler at the roofing company today?????
Quoting 652. Physicistretired:

Discussion of radiation levels
Thanks for that, PR.

I was worried that you, like old Leatherneck had deserted us because of the repeated battles with our resident herd of no-nothing, misinformed, and the bias-confirmation seeking denizens.

Please tolerate us, and if we drive you batty during a slugfest, take a break and come back when it is calm like this morning. Your hard science based contributions and responses are something that I value greatly, and I am sure that my compatriots would agree with my assessment.
happening now: climate change presentation/conference on a NAS/Royal Society Q&A put together recently

Link
Quoting 653. Xandra:
From Watching the Deniers:

Lock the gates and take to the streets for climate change justice (my first article as a citizen journalist)



Dear all, I’m very proud that I managed to get a piece published with Independent Australia.

Its called “Lock the gates and take to the streets for climate change justice.”

If those of good conscience and moral courage do not act now, then we leave the fate of future generations to men like Abbott…

We need to shake-the-tree and rouse the Australian public from its present indifference. We need to pierce the walls of apathy and the pacifying effects of infotainment that currently cocoon the public from the challenge of climate change.

In order to achieve this we must, out of necessity, engage in acts of dissent and non-violent protest.

It is time to embrace all forms of civil disobedience.

Fortunately we do not need to wait for a leader of Martin Luther King’s or Mahatma Gandhi’s stature to inspire or instruct us.

There are three things you can do today ‒ right now ‒ that will help this campaign of civil disobedience.


Got to their site to see the full article – every click helps me!

And please, spread via social media.

Thanks!
That is a very well-researched and -written article. Very depressing, too; the delusional types in the Australian government are doing destructive work on a par with their conservative US counterparts. But the piece concludes with some calls-to-action that might actually bring about change, and that's something too often absent.

Excellent...
Inez Fung, one of the authors of the FAQ issued by The US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society on climate change states:

"Uncertainty," Fung said, "does not challenge my certainty about the fact the planet will warm."

What will Dr. Curry have to say about that?

More at Eli Rabetts...
A spokesman for the Met Office says it has been the wettest winter on record across England and Wales – where the precipitation records date back to 1766.

Some 435mm (17.1 inches) of rain fell from December 1 to February 24, beating the previous highest total of 423mm (16.6 inches) set in 1915.
Link
662. yoboi
Quoting 661. ColoradoBob1:
A spokesman for the Met Office says it has been the wettest winter on record across England and Wales – where the precipitation records date back to 1766.

Some 435mm (17.1 inches) of rain fell from December 1 to February 24, beating the previous highest total of 423mm (16.6 inches) set in 1915.
Link



I wonder what the C02 level was in 1766????
Quoting 652. Physicistretired:


Fear mongering.

The radioactive contamination of Pacific waters is a very real issue just off the coast of Fukushima. But it's really, really not an issue for the US west coast.

Consider this: the U.S. safety limit for cesium levels in drinking water is 7,400 Becquerels per cubic meter (a Becquerel is a measurement of the number of radioactive decay events per second).

Canadian researchers have been measuring the radioactive 'plume' of water from Fukushima, which is hitting their coast first. Their most recent tests show that cesium levels have increased just 0.9 Becquerels per cubic meter. That's barely noise level.

Furthermore, 'uncontaminated' seawater already contains several Becquerels per cubic meter of cesium - most of it from atomic testing in the 40s and 50s.

So, in summary, radiation from Fukushima will be less than the residual we already have from atomic testing 60 years ago - and far, far less than safe limits for drinking water.

In fact, you get 15 times more radiation from a banana. And a pound of coffee has more than 400 Becquerels.

But watch for a lot more of this kind of coverage - not because it's a real issue, but because people are scared to death of radioactivity, even though they are absolutely surrounded by it.

And scary issues generate lots of page hits.

Thank you! After I asked the question (brought to me by a very scared facebook reader) I found the Berkeley site where west coast radioactive analysis is ongoing, thereby able to calm fears long enough for a good night's sleep. :) Here is a very reasonable news story from San Francisco with the Director of the Berkeley lab doing testing. Link
Quoting 662. yoboi:



I wonder what the C02 level was in 1766????


why do you wonder that and what's the relevance to the comment you're quoting?
Climate Change Linked To Indus Civilization Decline

4,100 years ago, write scholars in Geology, an abrupt weakening of the summer monsoon affected northwest India and the resulting drought coincided with the beginning of the decline of the metropolis-building Indus civilization that spanned present-day Pakistan and India.

The inference is that climate change could be why many of the major cities of the civilization were abandoned. This happened in other regions too, which is why there have been large finds from antiquity in what might seem like bizarre locations in the Mid-East (see Jawa: Lost City Of The Black Desert).


Link
666. yoboi
Quoting 664. CuriousAboutClimate:


why do you wonder that and what's the relevance to the comment you're quoting?



Can't find any real data for that year......
Please share this for it is very important that the "word" gets out to the Deaf and hearing impaired on severe weather alerts, and it ain't happening like it should.

The DirecTV dropping TWC has unintended consequences for the Hearing impaired.

Its not right.

They should seriously reconsider their action going with "WeatherNation".



In my personal view.


FCC's new closed captioning rules had long journey
FCC rules aimed at stopping inaccurate closed captioning took ten years to become a reality. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler made it a priority of his regime.


"Five wins and a very light power reese know" sounds more like gibberish than a weather forecast.

But that was the closed caption that hearing-impaired people got during a report from the WeatherNation channel last month. What the caption was supposed to say was, "high winds and a very light, powdery snow."

Closed captioning is designed to help the deaf and hearing-impaired enjoy television and receive important news and weather reports.

Unfortunately, captions are often riddled with typos and incomplete sentences that leave viewers struggling to make sense of what is being said.


"It's frustrating," said Cheryl Simpson, a hearing-impaired Norfolk, Va., resident who often has to rely on her husband to tell her what's happening on the screen.
During emergency news alerts, she said, "The stuff you see on the crawl does not match what they are saying."
Tom Wheeler agrees. On Thursday, the Federal Communications Commission chairman issued new rules that the regulatory agency hopes will improve closed captioning, which is mandated by the 1996 Telecommunications Act.

"Something needs to be done," Wheeler said of the current state of closed captioning.
The FCC will require that captions match spoken words in dialogue and convey background noises and other sounds to the fullest extent possible, according to agency officials familiar with the order.


The order will also mandate that captions not block other content on the screen, overlap one another, run off the edge of the video screen or be blocked by other information.
The bar will be slightly lower for news, sports and other programming that airs live as opposed to entertainment programming that is completed weeks before airing.

However, the agency still wants improvement on the often sloppy captioning that accompanies live programming.
At the FCC meeting, Claude Stout, executive director of Telecommunications for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, stressed the need for better captioning of news programming.

"One of the most frightening moments for my wife and I was the sniper shootings that took place in late 2002," Stout said, using sign language. "Local stations in my area showed breaking news on the latest developments, but they were not captioned. We felt trapped and helpless."


The first TV programming ever to feature captioning was the PBS cooking show "The French Chef" with Julia Child in 1972. But closed captioning didn't become commonplace until the 1990s.
And even when it became a requirement in 1996, the FCC didn't foresee the need for any sort of quality control requirements for the industry.

"The lack of consistency in the quality of TV captioning demonstrates that the original assumptions that the marketplace would ensure quality captions have not borne out," said Karen Peltz Strauss, deputy of the FCC's Consumer and Governmental Affairs Bureau.


Wheeler not only expressed frustration about the current state of closed captioning, but he also wasn't happy with how long it took the agency to act on concerns about it.

The FCC was first asked to address the state of closed captioning a decade ago and issued a notice of proposed rules to try to improve the situation in 2005. The matter has pretty much been in limbo until Wheeler, who was sworn in as chairman last November, made it a priority.

"Ten years is too slow a pace," Wheeler said at the meeting, and then signed, "This is only the beginning."
The majority of closed captioning is outsourced by TV stations and broadcast and cable networks. Jill Toschi, vice president for operations at the National Captioning Institute, said the FCC's actions are a "very positive step" and send a "strong message that caption producers need to be committed quality."
Wheeler promised that the FCC won't forget about this issue going forward.

"We'll keep pace with how it's working," he said.
Could the FCC issue fines to anyone falling short of their expectations?

"We'll see," Wheeler said.

joe.flint@latimes.com
668. yoboi
Quoting 667. Patrap:
Please share this for it is very important that the "word" gets out to the Deaf and hearing impaired on severe weather alerts, and it ain't happening like it should.

The DirecTV dropping TWC has unintended consequences for the Hearing impaired.

Its not right.

They should seriously reconsider their action going with "WeatherNation".



In my personal view.


FCC's new closed captioning rules had long journey
FCC rules aimed at stopping inaccurate closed captioning took ten years to become a reality. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler made it a priority of his regime.


"Five wins and a very light power reese know" sounds more like gibberish than a weather forecast.

But that was the closed caption that hearing-impaired people got during a report from the WeatherNation channel last month. What the caption was supposed to say was, "high winds and a very light, powdery snow."

Closed captioning is designed to help the deaf and hearing-impaired enjoy television and receive important news and weather reports.

Unfortunately, captions are often riddled with typos and incomplete sentences that leave viewers struggling to make sense of what is being said.


"It's frustrating," said Cheryl Simpson, a hearing-impaired Norfolk, Va., resident who often has to rely on her husband to tell her what's happening on the screen.
During emergency news alerts, she said, "The stuff you see on the crawl does not match what they are saying."
Tom Wheeler agrees. On Thursday, the Federal Communications Commission chairman issued new rules that the regulatory agency hopes will improve closed captioning, which is mandated by the 1996 Telecommunications Act.

"Something needs to be done," Wheeler said of the current state of closed captioning.
The FCC will require that captions match spoken words in dialogue and convey background noises and other sounds to the fullest extent possible, according to agency officials familiar with the order.


The order will also mandate that captions not block other content on the screen, overlap one another, run off the edge of the video screen or be blocked by other information.
The bar will be slightly lower for news, sports and other programming that airs live as opposed to entertainment programming that is completed weeks before airing.

However, the agency still wants improvement on the often sloppy captioning that accompanies live programming.
At the FCC meeting, Claude Stout, executive director of Telecommunications for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, stressed the need for better captioning of news programming.

"One of the most frightening moments for my wife and I was the sniper shootings that took place in late 2002," Stout said, using sign language. "Local stations in my area showed breaking news on the latest developments, but they were not captioned. We felt trapped and helpless."


The first TV programming ever to feature captioning was the PBS cooking show "The French Chef" with Julia Child in 1972. But closed captioning didn't become commonplace until the 1990s.
And even when it became a requirement in 1996, the FCC didn't foresee the need for any sort of quality control requirements for the industry.

"The lack of consistency in the quality of TV captioning demonstrates that the original assumptions that the marketplace would ensure quality captions have not borne out," said Karen Peltz Strauss, deputy of the FCC's Consumer and Governmental Affairs Bureau.


Wheeler not only expressed frustration about the current state of closed captioning, but he also wasn't happy with how long it took the agency to act on concerns about it.

The FCC was first asked to address the state of closed captioning a decade ago and issued a notice of proposed rules to try to improve the situation in 2005. The matter has pretty much been in limbo until Wheeler, who was sworn in as chairman last November, made it a priority.

"Ten years is too slow a pace," Wheeler said at the meeting, and then signed, "This is only the beginning."
The majority of closed captioning is outsourced by TV stations and broadcast and cable networks. Jill Toschi, vice president for operations at the National Captioning Institute, said the FCC's actions are a "very positive step" and send a "strong message that caption producers need to be committed quality."
Wheeler promised that the FCC won't forget about this issue going forward.

"We'll keep pace with how it's working," he said.
Could the FCC issue fines to anyone falling short of their expectations?

"We'll see," Wheeler said.

joe.flint@latimes.com





Does NOAA/NWS comply with this???
800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations


Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
Quoting 668. yoboi:





Does NOAA/NWS comply with this???



NOAA and NWS do not Broadcast on TV, but on radio, the local Networks and cable providers do the actual Displays.

So,

NOAA Alert Radios with Hearing Impaired Flashing lights and text displays are available.

One can also have Local NWS Warnings sent to a mobile device, in vibrate mode.

All this info is easily found, so ask Google..

I'm not a drive thru Wiki window.

: )

671. yoboi
Quoting 670. Patrap:


Er, NOAA and NWS do not Broadcast on TV,

So,

NOAA Alert Radios with Hearing Impaired Flashing lights and text displays are available.

One can also have Local NWS Warnings sent to a mobile device, in vibrate mode.

All this info is easily found, so ask Google..

I'm not a drive thru Wiki window.

: )




It's good to know that the impaired can get the information......that's all I was asking.....If I ever drive thru your wiki window it will be about some seafood recipes and drinks...;)
Quoting 662. yoboi:



I wonder what the C02 level was in 1766????


It was 260-280 ppm.
Impressive 120 ppm rise since then (1776), with 80 ppm since I was born in Jan 1960.

"That's a fact that schtick's."

"Pausography”
– by Horatio Algeranon

"A pause is like obscenity
I know it when I see it
Statistics are inanity
To see it’s to believe it"
Big thaw projected for Antarctic sea ice: Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100

"Antarctica's Ross Sea is one of the few polar regions where summer sea-ice coverage has increased during the last few decades, bucking a global trend of drastic declines in summer sea ice across the Arctic Ocean and in two adjacent embayments of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.



Now, a modeling study led by Professor Walker Smith of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science suggests that the Ross Sea's recent observed increase in summer sea-ice cover is likely short-lived, with the area projected to lose more than half its summer sea ice by 2050 and more than three quarters by 2100."

Read More ...

Walker O. Smith, Michael S. Dinniman, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck. The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21stcentury. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059311
Quoting 662. yoboi:

I wonder what the C02 level was in 1766????


270-280 ppm



Quoting 666. yoboi:

Can't find any real data for that year......


The Keeling Curve >>
Gavin Schmidt & Co have been reconciling climate models and surface temperature observations

Gavin A. Schmidt, Drew T. Shindell & Kostas Tsigaridis have a new article in Nature Geoscience (open access). What they've done is estimate the impact of actual measures of solar, volcanoes and ENSO on a CMIP5 ensemble. They found that this reduced the recent difference between models and observations a whole lot.

What they found in particular was the the models most likely overestimated the cooling from the Pinatubo eruption in the 1990s, making the models too cool and, when observed solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and ENSO were factored, in the models are pretty close to observations.

Here is the figure from the paper. Click to enlarge it.


Figure 1: Updated external influences on climate and their impact on the CMIP5 model runs.
a, The latest reconstructions of optical depth for volcanic aerosols9, 10 from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 suggest that the cooling effect of the eruption (1991–1993) was overestimated in the CMIP5 runs, making the simulated temperatures too cool. From about 1998 onwards, however, the cooling effects of solar activity (red), human-made tropospheric aerosols (green) and volcanic eruptions (pink) were all underestimated. WMGHG, well-mixed greenhouse gases.
b, Global mean surface temperature anomalies, with respect to 1980–1999, in the CMIP5 ensemble (mean: solid blue line; pale blue shading: 5–95% spread of simulations) on average exceeded two independent reconstructions from observations (GISTEMP Land–Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI)6, solid red; HadCRUT4 with spatial infilling7, dashed red) from about 1998. Adjusting for the phase of ENSO by regressing the observed temperature against the ENSO index11 adds interannual variability to the CMIP5 ensemble mean (dashed blue), and adjusting for updated external influences as in a further reduces the discrepancy between model and data from 1998 (black). The adjusted ensemble spread (dashed grey) clearly shows the decadal impact of the updated drivers. As an aside, we note that although it is convenient to use the CMIP5 ensemble to assess expected spreads in possible trends, the ensemble is not a true probabilistic sample.


More ...
Quoting 677. JohnLonergan:
Gavin Schmidt & Co have been reconciling climate models and surface temperature observations

Gavin A. Schmidt, Drew T. Shindell & Kostas Tsigaridis have a new article in Nature Geoscience (open access). What they've done is estimate the impact of actual measures of solar, volcanoes and ENSO on a CMIP5 ensemble. They found that this reduced the recent difference between models and observations a whole lot.

What they found in particular was the the models most likely overestimated the cooling from the Pinatubo eruption in the 1990s, making the models too cool and, when observed solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and ENSO were factored, in the models are pretty close to observations.

Here is the figure from the paper. Click to enlarge it.


Figure 1: Updated external influences on climate and their impact on the CMIP5 model runs.
a, The latest reconstructions of optical depth for volcanic aerosols9, 10 from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 suggest that the cooling effect of the eruption (1991%u20131993) was overestimated in the CMIP5 runs, making the simulated temperatures too cool. From about 1998 onwards, however, the cooling effects of solar activity (red), human-made tropospheric aerosols (green) and volcanic eruptions (pink) were all underestimated. WMGHG, well-mixed greenhouse gases.
b, Global mean surface temperature anomalies, with respect to 1980%u20131999, in the CMIP5 ensemble (mean: solid blue line; pale blue shading: 5%u201395% spread of simulations) on average exceeded two independent reconstructions from observations (GISTEMP Land%u2013Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI)6, solid red; HadCRUT4 with spatial infilling7, dashed red) from about 1998. Adjusting for the phase of ENSO by regressing the observed temperature against the ENSO index11 adds interannual variability to the CMIP5 ensemble mean (dashed blue), and adjusting for updated external influences as in a further reduces the discrepancy between model and data from 1998 (black). The adjusted ensemble spread (dashed grey) clearly shows the decadal impact of the updated drivers. As an aside, we note that although it is convenient to use the CMIP5 ensemble to assess expected spreads in possible trends, the ensemble is not a true probabilistic sample.


More ...

I'm glad that they did that analysis. People complain about the models being off and show all these plots about them diverging like crazy. Much of the discrepancy is apparent; it is due to improper comparison of model vs. observation (for example, the erroneous Cristy/Spencer plots). There still is some discrepancy after doing it correctly, however.

https://f8bbfe8f-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups. com/site/wmscottlincoln/home/other/global-temperat ure-contributors/related-info/AR4_Models_vs_GISTem p.GIF

The models have to make assumptions for volcanic activity and solar activity, so if those forcings end up in the cooler direction than predicted, it would sway the model results higher than the observations. It is important when we are trying to verify these model forecasts that we make sure the forcings are corrected from predicted forcings to actual forcings, otherwise it is not really showing an issue with the model but with the forcing forecast.
Meanwhile there are fortunately already some practical efforts done in order to mitigate the impacts esp. in Africa.

21,000 Birds Killed In France By Winter Storms

France has not seen a bird "slaughter" this large since 1900, the Agence France-Presse reports.


Link
Quoting 680. martinitony:
Ice Ice Everywhere

Well, except the Arctic.

British Storms Unbury an Ancient Welsh Forest

Are the petrified trees of Borth part of the mythical kingdom of Cantre’r Gwaelod?
Link
Quoting 680. martinitony:
Ice Ice Everywhere


Except Peru’s Quelccaya ice cap

Peru’s Quelccaya ice cap, the world’s largest tropical ice sheet, is shrinking because of rising temperatures, according to a study by Dartmouth College.

Dartmouth’s research suggests “that these tropical glaciers are shrinking very rapidly today because of a warming climate,” said Meredith Kelly, one of the study’s authors, in a preview of the paper.


Link

Which sits at 18,000 feet (5,486 meters) in the Andes.
Quoting 683. ColoradoBob1:
British Storms Unbury an Ancient Welsh Forest

Are the petrified trees of Borth part of the mythical kingdom of Cantre’r Gwaelod?
Link

Can petrified (or any other) trees be part of any mythical kingdom?
In a warming world, there will be more extreme rain events.


NSW , Australia -

SES spokesman Phil Campbell said Cooranbong in southern Lake Macquarie recorded the highest rainfall – 261mm from midnight to 9am.

Link
Quoting 685. Birthmark:

Can petrified (or any other) trees be part of any mythical kingdom?


I think Nat. Geo. was just having fun with the rich history of Wales, and all the amazing stories that come from that area of the UK.

But, the forest is part of a much larger story about this winter's storms in Europe, they uncovered all sorts of things . In addition to killing 21,000 Atlantic puffins, the common murre, and the razor-billed auks. " LPO's Nicolas Gendre told AFP the birds died of exhaustion or starvation as a result of days of gale-force winds, which made it impossible for them to fish."

The scale of these storms we've been sending the Europeans is truly amazing. By every metric .

Quoting 685. Birthmark:

Can petrified (or any other) trees be part of any mythical kingdom?


Is the story of the Noah a myth ?


In their 1998 book, Noah's Flood: The New Scientific Discoveries about the Event that Changed History, Ryan and Pitman suggest the Black Sea was once a much smaller, land-locked freshwater lake, fed by ancient rivers, and surrounded by fertile plains. Neolithic people, Ryan and Pitman suppose, would have flocked to farm these Eden-like plains to farm them while supplementing their diets with the lake's abundant shellfish.

At this time - about 7,500 years ago - the global climate was still rapidly warming following the last Ice Age, causing the seas to rise. Ryan and Pitman hypothesize that, when sea levels rose beyond a critical point, the Mediterranean Sea overflowed, deluging the Black Sea basin with salty water and destroying the fertile plains around the once-shallow freshwater lake..............
In November 1999, Ballard announced the conclusions to the world. Ballard and his colleagues had collected shells from nine separate species of mollusks, shell-building invertebrates such as snails and clams. Expert analysis by Gary Rosenberg of the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia revealed that seven of the species were saltwater mollusks, ranging up to 6,800 years old. The other two species, however, were extinct freshwater species that might have lived between 7,460 and 15,500 years ago. These two species proved this body of water must have been fresh until 7,460 years ago, providing more- and incontrovertible- evidence of an influx of saltwater from the Mediterranean Sea.


Link


Note that the burying of this forest in Wales is occurring during the same period of time.
Quoting 688. ColoradoBob1:


Is the story of the Noah a myth ?

Not if it actually happened? :)
Quoting 689. Birthmark:

Not if it actually happened? :)


The submerged forest at Borth was not the only ancient site to have been uncovered by recent storms. Another submerged forest appeared at Mount's Bay, Cornwall. An ichthyosaur skeleton was discovered on the Jurassic Coast of Dorset and East Devon. At Happisburgh, Norfolk, footprints discovered in storm-exposed rocks are believed to be the earliest evidence of humans outside Africa, dating back 850,000 years. (See "Oldest Human Footprints Found Outside of Africa.")

THIS WINTER’S storms and floods have brought a rise in the number of unexploded bombs tackled by disposal experts.

Six devices have been made safe by teams in as many weeks in the South West and West Wales, which bore the brunt of the bad weather.


Link

Meanwhile vessels in the English Channel have been warned to watch out for empty shipping containers washed from the Danish-owned Svendborg Maersk cargo ship during the Valentine Day’s storm.

About 520 containers were lost and Falmouth Coastguard said: ‘There are a lot and they’re a hazard. The owners are trying to recover what they can.’
Quoting 689. Birthmark:

Not if it actually happened? :)


The Power of Myth is a book and six-part television documentary originally broadcast on PBS in 1988 as Joseph Campbell and the Power of Myth. The documentary comprises six one-hour conversations between mythologist Joseph Campbell (1904–1987) and journalist Bill Moyers.

Link

Never dismiss myth or it's power.
692. yoboi
Quoting 682. Birthmark:

Well, except the Arctic.




would you and others care to see the real picture??????
693. yoboi
Quoting 680. martinitony:
Ice Ice Everywhere



they only want to pick a region that suites them.........
How can there be floodng of the Black Sea 7500 years ago if the earth is only 6000 years old? Those scientists!
Quoting 682. Birthmark:

Well, except the Arctic.

But it would be great if all that ice on the Great Lakes contributed to higher lake levels. It would be even better if the cold could kill off the asian carp over in Illinois, but that's just wishful thinking, I'm afraid.
Quoting 689. Birthmark:

Not if it actually happened? :)

That would make Gilgamesh real,since the Noah story was adapated from Gilgamesh.
697. yoboi
Quoting 694. FLwolverine:
How can there be floodng of the Black Sea 7500 years ago if the earth is only 6000 years old? Those scientists!



If some are stuck In 1930 law one would assume they could be stuck in 1930 science......
I would like to apologize for being a bit to argumentative ,but why don't we put our thoughts and energies to a solution?
Quoting 698. overwash12:
I would like to apologize for being a bit to argumentative ,but why don't we put our thoughts and energies to a solution?

Knock yourself out. No one's stopping you.

I've already proposed a program here. I don't see any reason to hawk my idea every thread. That gets tiresome for everyone.

So, whaddya got? :)
THE FORMER WORLD'S HIGHEST SKI AREA
2005


2011




Enhanced image of Chacaltaya ski resort, November 2007
The glacier on Chacaltaya served as Bolivia's only ski resort. It was the world's highest lift-served ski area, the northernmost in South America as well as the world's second most equatorial after Maoke, Indonesia. The rope tow, the very first in South America, was built in 1939 using an automobile engine; it was notoriously fast and difficult, housed in the site's original clapboard lodge, and is now inoperable. The road to the base of the 200-meter (660 ft) drop is reached by a narrow road, also built in the 1930s. Traditionally, due to the extreme cold weather, the lift operated exclusively on weekends from November to March. This summer skiing is no longer possible following the unexpectedly early melting of the glacier.[1] As of 2009, skiing is restricted to a 600-foot (180 m) stretch that sometimes receives sufficient snowfall for a run during the winter.[2][5] The mountain is also popular with amateur mountaineers, as the aforementioned road stops only 200-metre (660 ft) from the summit.

Looks like ice is disappearing in Bolivia, too.
701. yoboi
Quoting 698. overwash12:
I would like to apologize for being a bit to argumentative ,but why don't we put our thoughts and energies to a solution?



Good luck....I hope you can get some feedback....
Quoting 696. JohnLonergan:

That would make Gilgamesh real,since the Noah story was adapated from Gilgamesh.

Yep. And we know the whole Earth wasn't flooded...well, ever probably. Certainly not in the time of Noah or Gilgamesh.
703. yoboi
Quoting 702. Birthmark:

Yep. And we know the whole Earth wasn't flooded...well, ever probably. Certainly not in the time of Noah or Gilgamesh.



not true.....
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.




The windmills of your mind: A madcap idea to protect America's coasts from storms


!!! Yes, we have no bananas: A huge export industry is battling for survival on two fronts


* Law on Mother Earth: Domestic climate legislation is booming

*** Negawatt hour: The energy-conservation business is booming

!!! Why it's not "Rain Woman": Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them

*** Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs

*** Global Warming Basics from the U.S. and British Science Academies

Feelings, Facts, Food and Genetic Engineering: A Fresh Look

*** Smell of forest pine can limit climate change




*** Rare songbird faces fire ant threat



* Climate change 'helped to end monsoon 4,000 years ago'

Closest, brightest supernova in decades is also a little weird

*** NASA's Kepler mission announces a planet bonanza, 715 new worlds

!!! 'Super-Earths' may be dead worlds: Being in habitable zone is not enough



*** Water detected in a planet outside our solar system

* Why breastfed babies are so smart: Moms who breastfeed are often responsive and read to their babies

Why dark chocolate is good for your heart And the soul!

!!! Big thaw projected for Antarctic sea ice: Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100

Dual role of brain glycogen revealed by researchers


10,000 years on the Bering Land Bridge: Ancestors of Native Americans paused en route from Asia

*** Climate change puts wheat crops at risk of disease

*** Decline of bronze age 'megacities' linked to climate change

!!! New study reveals evolution at work: Analyses elucidate a part of the brain particular to primates

* Big step for next-generation fuel cells and electrolyzers

*** Still-fresh remnants of Exxon Valdez oil 25 years after oil spill, found protected by boulders




Fat or flat: Getting galaxies into shape

Science publisher fooled by gibberish papers

Tennessee news briefs

Haze-hit Indonesian province declares emergency

*** Global warming slowdown likely to be brief: U.S., UK science bodies

* Japan launches hi-tech global rainfall satellite

Climate body says Australia emissions target 'not credible'

Stupider With Monogamy ;)

New F.D.A. Nutrition Labels Would Make 'Serving Sizes' Reflect Actual Servings

*** 'Frozen zoo' sounds like sci-fi, but it's no 'Jurassic Park'

Need to Know: The A to Z of Frozen Zoos

!!! Chinese man sues government over smog: the lawsuit would be the first of its kind as China battles its worst smog crisis in months

Will global warming leave Los Angeles' poor under water?

*** Scientists More Certain Than Ever on Climate Change, Report Says

* Got a Name for a Crater on Mars? You Can Put It on Uwingu's List



I like the rave face :)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

Chinese mummies found in possession of world's oldest cheese

Program finds use for tons of used coffee grounds in Texas gardens>

Tiny houses for the homeless: an affordable solution catches on

MIT scientists show tree branch to be effective water purifier

* In a Host of Small Sources, Scientists See Energy Windfall

Irrigation Water Cut, but Central Texans Worry Over Supply

Tax proposal would deal big blows to Big Oil (well...sorta...)

Feds unveil study paving way for oil and gas research in Atlantic

Critics take aim at upcoming federal report on Atlantic drilling

Researchers: Natural gas vehicles will see rapid rise globally through 2023

* Economist: Shale fever soon will decline


*** Dream of US oil independence slams against shale costs

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of astrometeor:

!!! Sea Change: Food for millions at risk
Quoting 698. overwash12:
I would like to apologize for being a bit to argumentative ,but why don't we put our thoughts and energies to a solution?
The first step is to define the problem, mainly so we all know we're talking about the same thing. How would you describe it?
Quoting 641. Pipejazz:
Is this fear mongering or good advice about the radiation coming to the west coast?
Link


Mostly fearmongering I think.
Evidence Noah's Biblical Flood Happened, Says Robert Ballard
Dec. 10, 2012

By JENNA MILLMAN, BRYAN TAYLOR and LAUREN EFFRON
Lauren Effron More from Lauren »


PHOTO: This ark, located an hour south of Amsterdam, is a replica of Noahs Biblical boat. Underwater archaeologist Bob Ballard is in Turkey, looking for evidence that the Great Flood happened.
This ark, located an hour south of Amsterdam, is a replica of Noah's Biblical boat. Underwater archaeologist Robert Ballard is in Turkey, looking for evidence that the Great Flood happened.
ABC News

The story of Noah's Ark and the Great Flood is one of the most famous from the Bible, and now an acclaimed underwater archaeologist thinks he has found proof that the biblical flood was actually based on real events.

In an interview with Christiane Amanpour for ABC News, Robert Ballard, one of the world's best-known underwater archaeologists, talked about his findings. His team is probing the depths of the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey in search of traces of an ancient civilization hidden underwater since the time of Noah.

See photos from her journey HERE

Ballard's track record for finding the impossible is well known. In 1985, using a robotic submersible equipped with remote-controlled cameras, Ballard and his crew hunted down the world's most famous shipwreck, the Titanic.

Now Ballard is using even more advanced robotic technology to travel farther back in time. He is on a marine archeological mission that might support the story of Noah. He said some 12,000 years ago, much of the world was covered in ice.

"Where I live in Connecticut was ice a mile above my house, all the way back to the North Pole, about 15 million kilometers, that's a big ice cube," he said. "But then it started to melt. We're talking about the floods of our living history."

The water from the melting glaciers began to rush toward the world's oceans, Ballard said, causing floods all around the world.

"The questions is, was there a mother of all floods," Ballard said.

According to a controversial theory proposed by two Columbia University scientists, there really was one in the Black Sea region. They believe that the now-salty Black Sea was once an isolated freshwater lake surrounded by farmland, until it was flooded by an enormous wall of water from the rising Mediterranean Sea. The force of the water was two hundred times that of Niagara Falls, sweeping away everything in its path.

Fascinated by the idea, Ballard and his team decided to investigate.

"We went in there to look for the flood," he said. "Not just a slow moving, advancing rise of sea level, but a really big flood that then stayed... The land that went under stayed under."

Four hundred feet below the surface, they unearthed an ancient shoreline, proof to Ballard that a catastrophic event did happen in the Black Sea. By carbon dating shells found along the shoreline, Ballard said he believes they have established a timeline for that catastrophic event, which he estimates happened around 5,000 BC. Some experts believe this was around the time when Noah's flood could have occurred.

"It probably was a bad day," Ballard said. "At some magic moment, it broke through and flooded this place violently, and a lot of real estate, 150,000 square kilometers of land, went under."

The theory goes on to suggest that the story of this traumatic event, seared into the collective memory of the survivors, was passed down from generation to generation and eventually inspired the biblical account of Noah.

Noah is described in the Bible as a family man, a father of three, who is about to celebrate his 600th birthday.
Quoting 696. JohnLonergan:

That would make Gilgamesh real,since the Noah story was adapated from Gilgamesh.
Let us not forget about Humbaba.



Humbaba - a.k.a. Humbaba the Terrible, was a monstrous giant of immemorial age raised by Utu, the Sun. Humbaba was the guardian of the Cedar Forest, where the gods lived, by the will of the god Enlil, who assigned Humbaba as a terror to human beings. When Gilgamesh tricked Humbaba and had him killed, the Mesopotamian civilization began walking a path of deforestation that led to many negative consequences, culminating in massive global deforestation in recent decades, which is contributing to AGW/CC. These events are contributing to the approaching end as we enter the last decades of the ill-fated modern civilization of the species homo sapiens.
.
The author refers to the warming pause as being a manufactured problem. If he really wants to talk of a manufactured problem, he should be talking about the whole anthropogenic warming hoax caused by CO2 emissions.
Quoting 707. ncstorm:
Evidence Noah's Biblical Flood Happened, Says Robert Ballard

Well, he's wrong. The Biblical flood covered the Earth. It is beyond doubt that that has not occurred in the last 12,000 years.

Now, was there a guy named Noah who built a boat and survived a local flood? Well...it turns out I don't care much. lol
Quoting 710. robertpyoung:
The author refers to the warming pause as being a manufactured problem. If he really wants to talk of a manufactured problem, he should be talking about the whole anthropogenic warming hoax caused by CO2 emissions.

Which hoax would that be? Be as specific as possible.

Quoting 711. Birthmark:

Well, he's wrong. The Biblical flood covered the Earth. It is beyond doubt that that has not occurred in the last 12,000 years.

Now, was there a guy named Noah who built a boat and survived a local flood? Well...it turns out I don't care much. lol


nanny nanny boo boo..thats how you sound right now..

Robert Ballard is considered one of the best underwater archeologists in the world and all you can say to what I posted is "Well, he's wrong" and "I don't care"..yep, scientific answers indeed

please don't ever holler about telling someone to provide peer reviewed papers or evidence to why they stated this is that for as long as you post on this blog until you apologized to your scientific peers for contradicting Global Warming debate tactics..LOL
Quoting 710. robertpyoung:
The author refers to the warming pause as being a manufactured problem. If he really wants to talk of a manufactured problem, he should be talking about the whole anthropogenic warming hoax caused by CO2 emissions.


You literally waited 3 years to post such facile crap as your first comment?
Now we all jump off the edge of the world. Everybody hold hands , it’s a long way down.
Quoting 710. robertpyoung:
The author refers to the warming pause as being a manufactured problem. If he really wants to talk of a manufactured problem, he should be talking about the whole anthropogenic warming hoax caused by CO2 emissions.


In the entire history of this theory not one of you bozos have ever proven that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, and that more of it makes the Earth warmer.

Period.
Quoting 713. ncstorm:






Figure I should ask rather than assume do you think Robert Ballard in that article believes there was a worldwide flood event in 5000 BC? Reading it over it appears that he believes Noah's flood was a localized event in the Black Sea basin.
Quoting 696. JohnLonergan:

That would make Gilgamesh real,since the Noah story was adapated from GilgaNow we all jump off the edge of the world. Everybody hold hands , it’s a long way down.mesh.


But Gilgamesh comes after the flooding of the Black Sea. And Gilgamesh never says it rained "40 days and 40 nights". Gilgamesh just says the world flooded.

Result -
Long before Gilgamesh, the Black Sea flooded.

People never forgot that event, and they had no way to explain it.

After all they couldn't say the Earth is warming , so God got the job.

Myth through time. Read :
mythologist Joseph Campbell (1904–1987)
I am a :
" Student of the Natural Sciences and Human Folly "

I'll put my understanding of human folly up against anyone. My understanding of the natural world is much broader than most.

That's why I brought up the flood and the subject of myths. Myths are based on events. Whether we need an event , or a hero to over come that event. I am a Student of the Natural Sciences and Human Folly .
Speaking of Gilgamesh, ...................There are about 35,000 Hittite tablets sitting in the British museum , we have translated about 3 % of what they say. There about 4 people working on this problem. The Hittites are the people that invented the iron age.
Nothing says "human folly " like putting 4 people to work on the records of the inventors of the iron age.
In a world of nearly 7 billion people.

Can Neil de Grasse Tyson Bring His Own Magic To Sagan’s Cosmos? Oh Yes!

Posted by Dan Satterfield

The first episode of the new COSMOS airs on March 9th (worldwide on Fox, and National Geographic Channel in many countries). Neil de Grasse Tyson (Director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York) has been thought of by many of my fellow science geeks to be THE person to do a much-needed update of Carl Sagan’s epic tour of the Universe, and that means filling some big shoes. Sagan died in 1996, but he was perhaps the most famous American scientist of his time, and his PBS series COSMOS is the most watched PBS series ever. It’s still discovered anew every year by thousands of younger students who were not even alive when he died in 1996, but it is now seriously dated and new discoveries have rewritten the science text books since 1980.

The new Cosmos could not come at a more needed time. Let’s face it, we live in a country where the only people who understand the metric system are scientists and drug dealers, and 25% of the population believes the Sun revolves around the Earth! I won’t go so far as to say that the new version of Cosmos will turn around the seemingly precipitous decline in science literacy, but it sure can’t hurt, and Tyson will have the opportunity to share this amazing new knowledge with millions world-wide who know either nothing, or very little of these discoveries.

Episode One



[...]

The new series uses modern digital effects to make an updated version of Sagan’s “spaceship” (used as a mind vehicle to travel to the stars), but most of episode one is built around shrinking all of the 13,700 million years since the big bang into ONE calendar year of time. This means each month covers about 1,400 million years and each day 38 million years. It’s a superb way of helping people to get their head around the concept of deep time and how we humans are such a tiny blip in it (appearing only in the last hour of the last day of the year on New Year’s Eve).

Tyson illustrates the history of our universe using this calendar, and picks the day when our ancestors first crawled from the sea, then exploring how the mammals (that would eventually evolve into us) survived and thrived, after the giant asteroid doomed the dinosaurs. There is ample coverage in part one of scientists who were imprisoned by the church for their belief in a solar centric universe, and I was reminded of the efforts of Virginia’s Attorney General to prosecute Penn. State Climatologist Dr. Michael Mann, the creator of the most famous scientific graph of the last 25 years and perhaps the last 50.

I guess some things never change.


Michael Mann’s famous “Hockey Stick” reminds me of similar attacks on scientists who realized the Sun not the Earth was the center of our solar system.

One other thing caught my attention, and it illustrates the times we live in so very well. In the first episode, Tyson covers The big bang, biological evolution,and the greenhouse effect (all long accepted, and well understood scientific discoveries). Based on their statements, I wonder how many members of the U.S. Congress from Georgia, Oklahoma, or Texas would publicly admit to them. Things have indeed changed a lot since Cosmos premiered in 1980!

If the rest of the episodes are as good as the first one, then it will inspire countless students to want to learn more, and I suspect many of them will end up as future researchers. Some will probably make new world-changing discoveries, and perhaps a few will run for congress! I hope and highly recommend that science teachers around the world use these episodes as a way to inspire and educate!

Complete article >>
Quoting 713. ncstorm:



nanny nanny boo boo..thats how you sound right now..

Robert Ballard is considered one of the best underwater archeologists in the world and all you can say to what I posted is "Well, he's wrong" and "I don't care"..yep, scientific answers indeed

please don't ever holler about telling someone to provide peer reviewed papers or evidence to why they stated this is that for as long as you post on this blog until you apologized to your scientific peers for contradicting Global Warming debate tactics..LOL


I'll be as nice as possible since you came over here to attempt to stir the pot.

An ABC article is not peer reviewed either, so let's throw that line out. The Bible isn't evidence of anything, it does not prove itself. Just because there are real events in the Bible, doesn't make the rest of it true. (To illustrate this point, one only has to simply look at a modern day movie or book that has a "real" event within it, such as The Big Lebowski and President George Bush's Iraq speech, that doesn't mean The Big Lebowski is real). As a second point, many Biblical scholars believe the Bible to be allegorical. (For example, no archeological evidence that supports Exodus).

Look NC, regardless of how you feel about religion, your religion is mostly based on region of birth. Being born in the U.S., you are more likely to be some brand of Christian. If you were born in Eastern Europe you are more likely to not have religion, and in the Middle East you are more likely to be Muslim. You probably had very little say in what religion you "chose" to be unless you started attending church at a late age in life.

Finally, how this related to "global warming debate tactics" is beyond me. You haven't once had an honest discussion on the subject and just support whatever nonsense that goes against global warming regardless of validity or realistic support.

Let's not play games, it you want to learn something, welcome and let's do it. If you just want to pull this kind of this really poor attempted "gotcha!" tactic. Don't bother, we are a lot smarter than you think.
kangaroos aren't mentioned in the bible. is this because the writers felt no need to mention kangaroos, OR....is it beause the writers of the bible didn't know about anything that couldn't be found within a 500 mile radius of where they lived?
Quoting 710. robertpyoung:
The author refers to the warming pause as being a manufactured problem. If he really wants to talk of a manufactured problem, he should be talking about the whole anthropogenic warming hoax caused by CO2 emissions.


Have you taken a college level chemistry class?
Quoting 704. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.




The windmills of your mind: A madcap idea to protect America's coasts from storms


!!! Yes, we have no bananas: A huge export industry is battling for survival on two fronts


* Law on Mother Earth: Domestic climate legislation is booming

*** Negawatt hour: The energy-conservation business is booming

!!! Why it's not "Rain Woman": Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them

*** Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs

*** Global Warming Basics from the U.S. and British Science Academies

Feelings, Facts, Food and Genetic Engineering: A Fresh Look

*** Smell of forest pine can limit climate change




*** Rare songbird faces fire ant threat



* Climate change 'helped to end monsoon 4,000 years ago'

Closest, brightest supernova in decades is also a little weird

*** NASA's Kepler mission announces a planet bonanza, 715 new worlds

!!! 'Super-Earths' may be dead worlds: Being in habitable zone is not enough



*** Water detected in a planet outside our solar system

* Why breastfed babies are so smart: Moms who breastfeed are often responsive and read to their babies

Why dark chocolate is good for your heart And the soul!

!!! Big thaw projected for Antarctic sea ice: Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100

Dual role of brain glycogen revealed by researchers


10,000 years on the Bering Land Bridge: Ancestors of Native Americans paused en route from Asia

*** Climate change puts wheat crops at risk of disease

*** Decline of bronze age 'megacities' linked to climate change

!!! New study reveals evolution at work: Analyses elucidate a part of the brain particular to primates

* Big step for next-generation fuel cells and electrolyzers

*** Still-fresh remnants of Exxon Valdez oil 25 years after oil spill, found protected by boulders




Fat or flat: Getting galaxies into shape

Science publisher fooled by gibberish papers

Tennessee news briefs

Haze-hit Indonesian province declares emergency

*** Global warming slowdown likely to be brief: U.S., UK science bodies

* Japan launches hi-tech global rainfall satellite

Climate body says Australia emissions target 'not credible'

Stupider With Monogamy ;)

New F.D.A. Nutrition Labels Would Make 'Serving Sizes' Reflect Actual Servings

*** 'Frozen zoo' sounds like sci-fi, but it's no 'Jurassic Park'

Need to Know: The A to Z of Frozen Zoos

!!! Chinese man sues government over smog: the lawsuit would be the first of its kind as China battles its worst smog crisis in months

Will global warming leave Los Angeles' poor under water?

*** Scientists More Certain Than Ever on Climate Change, Report Says

* Got a Name for a Crater on Mars? You Can Put It on Uwingu's List



I like the rave face :)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

Chinese mummies found in possession of world's oldest cheese

Program finds use for tons of used coffee grounds in Texas gardens>

Tiny houses for the homeless: an affordable solution catches on

MIT scientists show tree branch to be effective water purifier

* In a Host of Small Sources, Scientists See Energy Windfall

Irrigation Water Cut, but Central Texans Worry Over Supply

Tax proposal would deal big blows to Big Oil (well...sorta...)

Feds unveil study paving way for oil and gas research in Atlantic

Critics take aim at upcoming federal report on Atlantic drilling

Researchers: Natural gas vehicles will see rapid rise globally through 2023

* Economist: Shale fever soon will decline


*** Dream of US oil independence slams against shale costs

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of astrometeor:

!!! Sea Change: Food for millions at risk
If you like the rave face, why don't you use it as your avatar, replacing you?
Quoting 704. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.




The windmills of your mind: A madcap idea to protect America's coasts from storms


!!! Yes, we have no bananas: A huge export industry is battling for survival on two fronts


* Law on Mother Earth: Domestic climate legislation is booming

*** Negawatt hour: The energy-conservation business is booming

!!! Why it's not "Rain Woman": Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them

*** Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs

*** Global Warming Basics from the U.S. and British Science Academies

Feelings, Facts, Food and Genetic Engineering: A Fresh Look

*** Smell of forest pine can limit climate change




*** Rare songbird faces fire ant threat



* Climate change 'helped to end monsoon 4,000 years ago'

Closest, brightest supernova in decades is also a little weird

*** NASA's Kepler mission announces a planet bonanza, 715 new worlds

!!! 'Super-Earths' may be dead worlds: Being in habitable zone is not enough



*** Water detected in a planet outside our solar system

* Why breastfed babies are so smart: Moms who breastfeed are often responsive and read to their babies

Why dark chocolate is good for your heart And the soul!

!!! Big thaw projected for Antarctic sea ice: Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100

Dual role of brain glycogen revealed by researchers


10,000 years on the Bering Land Bridge: Ancestors of Native Americans paused en route from Asia

*** Climate change puts wheat crops at risk of disease

*** Decline of bronze age 'megacities' linked to climate change

!!! New study reveals evolution at work: Analyses elucidate a part of the brain particular to primates

* Big step for next-generation fuel cells and electrolyzers

*** Still-fresh remnants of Exxon Valdez oil 25 years after oil spill, found protected by boulders




Fat or flat: Getting galaxies into shape

Science publisher fooled by gibberish papers

Tennessee news briefs

Haze-hit Indonesian province declares emergency

*** Global warming slowdown likely to be brief: U.S., UK science bodies

* Japan launches hi-tech global rainfall satellite

Climate body says Australia emissions target 'not credible'

Stupider With Monogamy ;)

New F.D.A. Nutrition Labels Would Make 'Serving Sizes' Reflect Actual Servings

*** 'Frozen zoo' sounds like sci-fi, but it's no 'Jurassic Park'

Need to Know: The A to Z of Frozen Zoos

!!! Chinese man sues government over smog: the lawsuit would be the first of its kind as China battles its worst smog crisis in months

Will global warming leave Los Angeles' poor under water?

*** Scientists More Certain Than Ever on Climate Change, Report Says

* Got a Name for a Crater on Mars? You Can Put It on Uwingu's List



I like the rave face :)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

Chinese mummies found in possession of world's oldest cheese

Program finds use for tons of used coffee grounds in Texas gardens>

Tiny houses for the homeless: an affordable solution catches on

MIT scientists show tree branch to be effective water purifier

* In a Host of Small Sources, Scientists See Energy Windfall

Irrigation Water Cut, but Central Texans Worry Over Supply

Tax proposal would deal big blows to Big Oil (well...sorta...)

Feds unveil study paving way for oil and gas research in Atlantic

Critics take aim at upcoming federal report on Atlantic drilling

Researchers: Natural gas vehicles will see rapid rise globally through 2023

* Economist: Shale fever soon will decline


*** Dream of US oil independence slams against shale costs

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of astrometeor:

!!! Sea Change: Food for millions at risk
If you like the rave face, why don't you use it as your avatar, replacing you?
726 & 727 - Do you ever choke on your own bile?
729. ARiot
Quoting 720. ColoradoBob1:
Speaking of Gilgamesh, ...................There are about 35,000 Hittite tablets sitting in the British museum , we have translated about 3 % of what they say. There about 4 people working on this problem. The Hittites are the people that invented the iron age.


And I love me some Hitties. Seriously. The people living there, around into Turkey and most-likely where the Black Sea is now before it flooded are the inventors of civilization and all the great stories told to children to keep them line.

However, generally speaking, we're repeating the mistakes of every "civilizaiton" since then.

We're still hard wired to roam around herding a few animals, or in the case of my European ancesters, walking around painted up blue, throwing rocks and pointy sticks, living off the land and freaking out at any thing new or different in our path.

Since we like civilization, we have to fix it so it won't break the climate. If we get that right, maybe our wiring will get fixed up. :-)


Edited later to add:

Evidence of the Black Sea flood is convincing, they've got it down to multiple strong lines of evidence. I can only assume that since early civilization probably witnessed it or the results, that is where the myths of flood superheroes came from. (And of course, Ballard isn't looking for the ark from the Noah tale. That headline is absurd.)

Time to Wake Up - The Wilderness Warrior

February 12, 2014 - In this week's "Time to Wake Up" speech, Sheldon shares stories of President Teddy Roosevelt, an historic conservationist. In the speech, he asks Republicans to follow Roosevelt's lead in protecting America's natural beauty and environment, and to fight against climate change.

Excerpts from the transcript:

President Roosevelt issued a warning a century ago: “One distinguishing characteristic of really civilized men is foresight,” he said. “We have to, as a nation, exercise foresight for this nation in the future; and if we do not exercise that foresight, dark will be the future.”

Have we heeded Roosevelt’s warning? We can clearly foresee the devastation climate change will bring. Yet many modern Republicans, particularly those in Congress, are aligning themselves with the polluters and the deniers to manufacture doubt about the science and to fight any limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

Roosevelt, a Republican, had foresight to protect the natural resources we rely on, but his once great party has lost track of his ideals. Democrats and Republicans should be working with President Obama to implement his Climate Action Plan to reduce carbon pollution. But when the Environment and Public Works Committee recently held an oversight hearing on the President’s plan, what did we get from our Republican colleagues? Flat out climate denial—the polluter party line.

Theodore Roosevelt, the great Republican conservationist, stood up to polluting special interests. He was, in the name of the recent book, the Wilderness Warrior. Today, too many Republicans in Congress have joined polluting, corporate special interests in their war on the wilderness.

Perhaps they should listen to another Roosevelt. Theodore Roosevelt IV, the great grandson of the twenty-sixth president—and still a Republican. He wants his fellow Republicans to return to the values of his great grandfather. “It seems to be beyond the scope of many on the right to say, for instance, that species extinction, as a result of unrestrained human activity, is immoral and indefensible; that our refusal to seriously engage in a global effort to address climate change is unethical and imprudent.”

Mr. President, there are such clear warnings. The facts speak for themselves. The denial position has shown itself to be nonsense; a sham. Yet, in Congress, we sleepwalk on. Every day, more and more Americans realize the truth, and they increasingly want this Congress to wake up. They know that climate change is real.

Well, it is time to wake up and to do the work necessary to combat climate change. It is time for us to heed the words of President Theodore Roosevelt: “Here is your country. Cherish these natural wonders, cherish the natural resources, cherish the history and romance as a sacred heritage, for your children and your children's children. Do not let selfish men or greedy interests skin your country of its beauty, its riches or its romance.”

Let us wake up. I thank the presiding officer, I yield the floor, and I note the absence of a quorum.


Quoting 713. ncstorm:
please don't ever holler about telling someone to provide peer reviewed papers or evidence to why they stated this is that for as long as you post on this blog until you apologized to your scientific peers for contradicting Global Warming debate tactics..LOL

No peer review is needed in this case. The Noah myth clearly states the entire Earth was flooded. That didn't happen. No peer-reviewed paper claims that that did happen, including the paper you cite.

The paper you cite claims a local/regional occurred. Again, I don't care. I simply don't have time to care about it. I'm sure it is interesting to some people, just not me.

Anything else to whinge about?
Quoting 713. ncstorm:



nanny nanny boo boo..thats how you sound right now..

Robert Ballard is considered one of the best underwater archeologists in the world and all you can say to what I posted is "Well, he's wrong" and "I don't care"..yep, scientific answers indeed

please don't ever holler about telling someone to provide peer reviewed papers or evidence to why they stated this is that for as long as you post on this blog until you apologized to your scientific peers for contradicting Global Warming debate tactics..LOL


whereas you sound like quite the adult.

you know birthmark is right. for the biblical flood to have covered as much of the earth as the bible said it did, evidence would exist. lots of it. i shouldn't even have to mention that fact, it's something you bring up as a kid in sunday school.

now, did local floods occur in the levant? of course they did. the story is obviously embellished but could be based on the story of some guy. does that matter at all? not really.
Quoting 715. ColoradoBob1:
Now we all jump off the edge of the world. Everybody hold hands , it’s a long way down.

Don't bump your head. Oooooooops to late
Quoting 733. schwankmoe:


whereas you sound like quite the adult.

you know birthmark is right. for the biblical flood to have covered as much of the earth as the bible said it did, evidence would exist. lots of it. i shouldn't even have to mention that fact, it's something you bring up as a kid in sunday school.

now, did local floods occur in the levant? of course they did. the story is obviously embellished but could be based on the story of some guy. does that matter at all? not really.
Well, of course it matters. If there wasn't a flood that destroyed the whole earth, then the promises in Genesis 22 are meaningless, and if they're meaningless, then they can't be used to deny AGW. (Refer to the conversation here last week)

You can find that reasoning behind almost every argument by someone who insists the Bible is literally true - if it isn't all entirely factual, then how can we believe any of it? The answer is not simple and has to start with an understanding of the pre-Enlightenment distinction between truth and fact. But that's too long a discussion for here, and OT to boot.
Quoting 732. etxwx:
As NC debates, other states empty coal ash dumps
This is the same government that tried to legislate against sea level rise. Must be something in the water down there!
Quoting 735. FLwolverine:
Well, of course it matters. If there wasn't a flood that destroyed the whole earth, then the promises in Genesis 22 are meaningless, and if they're meaningless, then they can't be used to deny AGW. (Refer to the conversation here last week)

You can find that reasoning behind almost every argument by someone who insists the Bible is literally true - if it isn't all entirely factual, then how can we believe any of it? The answer is not simple and has to start with an understanding of the pre-Enlightenment distinction between truth and fact. But that's too long a discussion for here, and OT to boot.


Somehow I doubt a good theological discussion is even possible with all our friends here if we were to even attempt to delve into it.
LOL @ this.


..again.

North Carolina Legislature Prepares to Ban Sea From Rising
Posted: 06/06/2012 11:15 am


Once upon a time, the great King Canute, strolling on a beach with his courtiers, ordered the waves to halt. Yet they kept on coming. It was a lesson intended for the monarch's fawning sycophants. Canute was showing them that there are limits to power. Even a king can't stop the sea!

This lesson seems to have been lost on the members of North Carolina's legislature. They are getting ready to vote on a bill that would prohibit government agencies from preparing for the estimated three feet rise in coastal sea levels which a state-appointed science panel has predicted will occur before the end of the current century. In fact, this forecast may soon be stricken from the public record -- because it takes into account the impact of global warming. And global warming isn't happening, right?

Sounds like something you would read in the satirical weekly, the Onion. But no, it's right there in the Charlotte Observer, North Carolina's leading newspaper. The headline reads: "Coastal N.C. counties fighting sea-level rise prediction." These counties have banded together, the paper says, to pressure the state lawmakers to cut the bad news about the ocean from the report of the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission.

If the Republican-dominated legislature votes as expected, scientists will be prohibited from factoring in the anticipated impact of climate change and the accelerating melting of the polar icecaps on Carolina's low-lying coastal communities. By legislative decree, the state's own researchers will be forced to base their predictions solely on historical climate data, rather than the acceleration of global warming that climatologists expect to occur in the coming decades.

Why are these politicos forcing the hand of the scientists? That's simple! Because North Carolina, home to Cape Hatteras and roughly two thousand square miles of low-lying coastlands, could stand to lose untold millions in developer dollars if the news about rising sea levels got out.

Never mind that the news already is out. Never mind that continuing to build up this hurricane and storm-surge alley is inviting disaster -- even at current sea-levels.

What's proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science," East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs who studies the evolution of the coast told the Observer. "You can't legislate the ocean, and you can't legislate storms."
But apparently you can in North Carolina, which is bent burying its head in the sand, as far as climate change is concerned. If you don't admit that you have a problem, maybe it will just go away. That seems to be the idea in North Carolina. The Observer reports that several local governments on the coast are not waiting for the legislature to act. They have already passed their own resolutions against sea-level rise policies.

Yet increasing beach erosion on the Outer Bank is evidence that higher seas are already taking their toll in the Tarheel state:

"As a result of the acceleration of outlet glaciers over large regions, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are already contributing more and faster to sea level rise than anticipated," according to Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "If this trend continues, we are likely to witness sea level rise 1 meter or more by year 2100," he adds, citing a figure which -- while alarming enough -- is regarded as being rather conservative in some scientific circles.
Based on the growing consensus of scientific opinion, other coastal states are now dealing more realistically with climate change in their contingency planning. Maine is preparing for a two-meter sea level rise by 2100, Delaware anticipates 1.5 meters, Louisiana one meter and California 1.4 meters. Southeastern Florida is looking for a two-foot rise by 2060. North Carolina, by contrast, expects to be exempt from the sea's advance, and plans for only an 8 inches rise by the end of the present century.

Good luck, North Carolina in your goofy tilting at the climate change windmill. But when your emergency preparedness plans come up disastrously short, your insurance costs shoot through the roof, and your brand new coastal developments get swept out to sea, don't come crying to the rest of us to bail you out!

“Climate Change is Now More Certain Than Ever,” New Report Says
by SHANNON HALL on FEBRUARY 28, 2014



Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. So begins the latest report by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the United Kingdom’s Royal Society. The two institutions agree: climate change is not only indisputable, it’s largely the result of human activities.
The bulk of the 36-page report is presented in a question-and-answer format, making it a good bed-side read. But in case you don’t want to have nightmares about surging temperatures or polar bears alone on breaking ice caps, we’ll leaf through the intriguing points here.


In a forward to the report, Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences, and Sir Paul Nurse, president of the Royal Society argue that multiple lines of evidence show that humans are changing Earth’s climate. This is now more certain than ever.
They are careful to include a caveat: “The evidence is clear. However, due to the nature of science, not every single detail is ever totally settled or completely certain. Nor has every pertinent question yet been answered.” Areas of active debate include how much warming to expect in the future and the connections between climate change and extreme weather events such as the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, droughts and floods.
Earth’s global average surface temperature has risen as shown in this plot of combined land and ocean measurements from 1850 to 2012, derived from three independent analyses of the available data sets.




The temperature changes are relative to the global average surface temperature of 1961?1990. Source: IPCC AR5, data from the HadCRUT4 dataset (black), UK Met Office Hadley Centre, the NCDC MLOST dataset (orange), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the NASA GISS dataset (blue), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Earth’s global average surface temperature has risen as shown in this plot of combined land and ocean measurements from 1850 to 2012, derived from three independent analyses of the available data sets. Image Credit: National Academy of Sciences / The Royal Society

But the first question: is the climate warming? goes without debate. Yes. Earth’s average surface air temperature has increased by about 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1900, and the last 30 years have been the warmest in 800 years. It’s the most rapid period of sustained temperature change in the scale of global history, trumping every ice age cycle.

Recent estimates of the increase in global temperature since the end of the last ice age are four to five degrees Celsius. While this is much greater than the 0.8 degree Celsius change recorded over the last 100+ years, this change occurred over a period of about 7,000 years. So the change in rate is now 10 times faster.

Of course an increase in temperature goes hand in hand with an increase in carbon emissions. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide absorb heat (infrared radiation) emitted from the Earth’s surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases trap most of the outgoing heat, causing the Earth to warm. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels have increased carbon dioxide concentrations by 40 percent between 1880 and 2012. It is now higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years.
And if the rise in carbon emissions continues unchecked, warming of the same magnitude as the increase out of the last ice age can be expected by the end of this century.
The report continues to ask more controversial questions. Take as an example the question: Does the recent slowdown of warming mean that climate change is no longer happening? The short answer is no. Decades of slow warming and accelerated warming occur naturally in the climate system. Despite the slower rate of warming the 2000’s were still warmer than the 1990’s
The new report builds upon the long history of climate-related work from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. So while some have argued it doesn’t add anything new to the wealth of climate science data available, it does help make that data more succinct and available to the public. Its goal is to help inform decision makers, policy makers, educators and all other individuals.
The report concludes by noting available options to citizens and governments. They can simply wait and accept the losses, they can change their pattern of energy production, they can attempt to adapt to environmental changes as much as possible, or they can seek as yet unproven geoengineering solutions.
No matter which option we choose, one thing remains certain: the Earth is warming at a tremendous rate and we are the cause.

The paper is available for download here.

Quoting 735. FLwolverine:
Well, of course it matters. If there wasn't a flood that destroyed the whole earth, then the promises in Genesis 22 are meaningless, and if they're meaningless, then they can't be used to deny AGW. (Refer to the conversation here last week)

You can find that reasoning behind almost every argument by someone who insists the Bible is literally true - if it isn't all entirely factual, then how can we believe any of it? The answer is not simple and has to start with an understanding of the pre-Enlightenment distinction between truth and fact. But that's too long a discussion for here, and OT to boot.


i think one of the big associations with noah's story involves an easy way to deny climate change is an issue as you say.

other stories from the bible are more important to literalists, like the garden of eden (if the fall of mankind never actually happened and original sin isn't real, then what did jesus die for, that sort of thing).
741. ARiot
Quoting 737. Naga5000:


Somehow I doubt a good theological discussion is even possible with all our friends here if we were to even attempt to delve into it.


I agree, however there is value in exploring how man's early texts seek to explain things we now can grasp or define.

Regional changes in climate or significant weather patterns / events were make or break moments for these early civilizations, and they recorded that mostly in a religious/super natural context.
Dr Rood your argument seems to be because you are a scientist then whatever you say is a fact and cannot be disputed to do so would be unscientific and "the science is settled." There are tens of millions of people around the world with science degrees!!! They do not all agree with you. A survey has never been conducted. In fact two of the top scientists and climate experts in the world today do not agree with you. I don't think you are more qualified than they are. In fact, if someone claims there is no disagreement I would consider that person ignorant. A few obvious problems I have with your theory are:
1. After the ice age temps have been rising causing glaciers to melt etc. took place prior to fossil fuels.
2. What about the falsifying of data scandal?
3. Experts say water and others have much larger effect than carbon
4. What about China India other countries? Whatever reductions we make or offset 100x by their increases.
Quoting 742. Kurtlb:
[New account, rehashed climate science myths]

Welcome to weatherunderground as of today. In case you haven't kept up with the different blogs here, let me give you a quick overview. On Dr. Masters' blog, people tend to have more general comments and more often you'll find people with a less-than-stellar understanding of climate science trying to act like experts. That is generally more tolerated there. Dr. Rood's blog is frequented by persons who generally possess a greater understanding of climate science, including a larger percentage of persons with higher degrees.

The weather underground blogs are community moderated, and posting of material with the intent to simply stir the pot, or posting of material as if you are an expert when you simply are not, or posting the same climate science myths over and over with no attempt to learn... that will earn you a "-" and "!" to your post.

Now if you have a specific question about an area of climate science that you do not understand, I'm sure many individuals will be happy to help point you in the right direction and share with you the tools to get accurate information.
Quoting 742. Kurtlb:
1. After the ice age temps have been rising causing glaciers to melt etc. took place prior to fossil fuels.

This is not a problem for AGW theory since that theory doesn't claim that CO2 is the only driver of climate on Earth. Orbital changes primarily caused the end of the last ice age. CO2 is the primary driver of the current warming. That CO2 is the result of burning fossil fuels.

Quoting 742. Kurtlb:
2. What about the falsifying of data scandal?

There is no such scandal. That is a baseless assertion without a drop of evidence in the real world.

Quoting 742. Kurtlb:
3. Experts say water and others have much larger effect than carbon

That is so ambiguous that it can't be answered.

Quoting 742. Kurtlb:
4. What about China India other countries? Whatever reductions we make or offset 100x by their increases.

So what? The irresponsible actions of others doesn't justify our acting irresponsible, too.
I say we burn the graphs to stay warm!LOL
Hey Xulonn, Hope life is treating you well in Central America!
Quoting 699. Birthmark:

Knock yourself out. No one's stopping you.

I've already proposed a program here. I don't see any reason to hawk my idea every thread. That gets tiresome for everyone.

So, whaddya got? :)
An Energy Idea, I need funding for research and development!
From Seeing the environmental forest

Monckton, RSS, and no warming since September 1996


"While browsing a climate change article on Huffington Post, I noticed a global warming denier using a Watts Up With That post by Lord Monckton as "evidence" that global temperatures haven't changed since September 1996. In it, Monckton uses least squares regression to show that satellite data from RSS is flat (trend: -0.0001394ºC per year) between September 1996 and January 2014.



Monckton then interprets the data to show no trend in 17 years 5 months. And he's correct—IF you ignore what we know about RSS AND you ignore the other temperature data sets. The problem is what he ignores.

First off, back in July 2011 none other than Roy Spencer noted that RSS shows false cooling since AD 2000. The problem is that the satellites the RSS team uses have run out of fuel and cannot maintain stable orbits. This introduces a false cooling into the data, as the satellite data is based on measuring the same part of the Earth at the same time each day. If the satellites measure slightly different areas at a given time, this daily (diurnal) drift will bias the data. Every satellite data set has some false cooling due to diurnal drift and each team attempts to correct for that drift to factor it out. The problem is that the RSS satellites are drifting faster than the computer algorithms expect them to be, meaning that not all of the drift is factored out—and therefore the RSS temperature estimate is biased low. This by itself invalidates Monckton's claim, as he uses a dataset that shows false cooling.

Second, RSS is the only dataset to show no warming since September 1996. The rest all show various degrees of warming—even UAH satellite data compiled by Roy Spencer and John Christy. As always, I'm correcting for autocorrelation with ARMA to get the correct p-values."

UAH: Trend: +0.011294ºC per year, p-value = 0.1713

...

More ...

So Moncton uses an invalid dataset and cherry picks a start date, what else would you expect from the "Fraud Lord"?

...Monckton's post is a prime example of the blatant, deliberate misinformation peddled on that site[WTFIUWT] as well as a sample of the type of unthinking readers WUWT attracts. ...


Quoting 746. overwash12:
Hey Xulonn, Hope life is treating you well in Central America!
I'm loving it here, Wash. Check out my new personal website and blog to see what I'm up to here in paradise.

The dry season winds let up a bit two days ago, and we just got our first light rain of the year today. The rains should pick up in March, and can get heavy again in April as we move into our rainy season.

I haven't seen a temp under 60 deg F in two years, and right now, at 9pm, it's 70 deg F outside and 74 deg inside. My latest rental casa has louvered windows with a bar between each louver, and the wind blows right through and the curtains billow in the breeze even when the windows are supposedly "closed."

The weather here is about as close to perfect as you can get - at least for my preferences.
Quoting 749. Xulonn:
I'm loving it here, Wash. Check out my new personal website and blog to see what I'm up to here in paradise.

The dry season winds let up a bit two days ago, and we just got our first light rain of the year today. The rains should pick up in March, and can get heavy again in April as we move into our rainy season.

I haven't seen a temp under 60 deg F in two years, and right now, at 9pm, it's 70 deg F outside and 74 deg inside. My latest rental casa has louvered windows with a bar between each louver, and the wind blows right through and the curtains billow in the breeze even when the windows are supposedly "closed."

The weather here is about as close to perfect as you can get - at least for my preferences.
Heck Yeah! At least that makes me feel good to know that someone is enjoying life that is meant to be enjoyed!LOL
Link

How computer-generated fake papers are flooding academia
More and more academic papers that are essentially gobbledegook are being written by computer programs %u2013 and accepted at conferences

%u2022 Higgs would not have found his boson in today's publish-or-perish research culture
Share 9465

'I've written five PhDs on Heidegger just this afternoon. What next?'
'I've written five PhDs on Heidegger just this afternoon. What next?' Photograph: Blutgruppe
Like all the best hoaxes, there was a serious point to be made. Three MIT graduate students wanted to expose how dodgy scientific conferences pestered researchers for papers, and accepted any old rubbish sent in, knowing that academics would stump up the hefty, till-ringing registration fees.

It took only a handful of days. The students wrote a simple computer program that churned out gobbledegook and presented it as an academic paper. They put their names on one of the papers, sent it to a conference, and promptly had it accepted. The sting, in 2005, revealed a farce that lay at the heart of science.

But this is the hoax that keeps on giving. The creators of the automatic nonsense generator, Jeremy Stribling, Dan Aguayo and Maxwell Krohn, have made the SCIgen program free to download. And scientists have been using it in their droves. This week, Nature reported, French researcher Cyril Labb revealed that 16 gobbledegook papers created by SCIgen had been used by German academic publisher Springer. More than 100 more fake SCIgen papers were published by the US Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). Both organisations have now taken steps to remove the papers.

Hoaxes in academia are nothing new. In 1996, mathematician Alan Sokal riled postmodernists by publishing a nonsense paper in the leading US journal, Social Text. It was laden with meaningless phrases but, as Sokal said, it sounded good to them. Other fields have not been immune. In 1964, critics of modern art were wowed by the work of Pierre Brassau, who turned out to be a four-year-old chimpanzee. In a more convoluted case, Bernard-Henri Lvy, one of France's best-known philosophers, was left to ponder his own expertise after quoting the lectures of Jean-Baptiste Botul as evidence that Kant was a fake, only to find out that Botul was the fake, an invention of a French reporter.

Just as the students wrote a quick and dirty program to churn out nonsense papers, so Labb has written one to spot the papers. He has made it freely available, so publishers and conference organisers have no excuse for accepting nonsense work in future.

Krohn, who has now founded a startup called Keybase.io in New York that provides encryption to programmers, said Labb's detective work revealed how deep the problem ran. Academics are under intense pressure to publish, conferences and journals want to turn their papers into profits, and universities want them published. "This ought to be a shock to people," Krohn said. "There's this whole academic underground where everyone seems to benefit, but they are wasting time and money and adding nothing to science. The institutions are being ripped off, because they pay publishers huge subscriptions for this stuff."

Krohn sees an arms race brewing, in which computers churn out ever more convincing papers, while other programs are designed to sniff them out. Does he regret the beast he helped unleash, or is he proud that it is still exposing weaknesses in the world of science? "I'm psyched, it's so great. These papers are so funny, you read them and can't help but laugh. They are total bs. And I don't see this going away."

%u2022 This article was amended on 27 February 2014, to cite Nature as the source of the story
Quoting 752. tramp96:
How computer-generated fake papers are flooding academia...
More and more academic papers that are essentially gobbledegook are being written by computer programs and accepted at conferences...
An interesting revelation about corruption and game-playing by people wasting their talents. However, I don't believe these "conference papers" are peer-reviewed, but I would be curious to know if any have been found in the proceedings of climate change science meetings and conferences.
Quoting 752. tramp96:
Link

How computer-generated fake papers are flooding academia
More and more academic papers that are essentially gobbledegook are being written by computer programs %u2013 and accepted at conferences

%u2022 Higgs would not have found his boson in today's publish-or-perish research culture
Share 9465

'I've written five PhDs on Heidegger just this afternoon. What next?'
'I've written five PhDs on Heidegger just this afternoon. What next?' Photograph: Blutgruppe
Like all the best hoaxes, there was a serious point to be made. Three MIT graduate students wanted to expose how dodgy scientific conferences pestered researchers for papers, and accepted any old rubbish sent in, knowing that academics would stump up the hefty, till-ringing registration fees.

It took only a handful of days. The students wrote a simple computer program that churned out gobbledegook and presented it as an academic paper. They put their names on one of the papers, sent it to a conference, and promptly had it accepted. The sting, in 2005, revealed a farce that lay at the heart of science.

But this is the hoax that keeps on giving. The creators of the automatic nonsense generator, Jeremy Stribling, Dan Aguayo and Maxwell Krohn, have made the SCIgen program free to download. And scientists have been using it in their droves. This week, Nature reported, French researcher Cyril Labb� revealed that 16 gobbledegook papers created by SCIgen had been used by German academic publisher Springer. More than 100 more fake SCIgen papers were published by the US Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). Both organisations have now taken steps to remove the papers.

Hoaxes in academia are nothing new. In 1996, mathematician Alan Sokal riled postmodernists by publishing a nonsense paper in the leading US journal, Social Text. It was laden with meaningless phrases but, as Sokal said, it sounded good to them. Other fields have not been immune. In 1964, critics of modern art were wowed by the work of Pierre Brassau, who turned out to be a four-year-old chimpanzee. In a more convoluted case, Bernard-Henri L�vy, one of France's best-known philosophers, was left to ponder his own expertise after quoting the lectures of Jean-Baptiste Botul as evidence that Kant was a fake, only to find out that Botul was the fake, an invention of a French reporter.

Just as the students wrote a quick and dirty program to churn out nonsense papers, so Labb� has written one to spot the papers. He has made it freely available, so publishers and conference organisers have no excuse for accepting nonsense work in future.

Krohn, who has now founded a startup called Keybase.io in New York that provides encryption to programmers, said Labb�'s detective work revealed how deep the problem ran. Academics are under intense pressure to publish, conferences and journals want to turn their papers into profits, and universities want them published. "This ought to be a shock to people," Krohn said. "There's this whole academic underground where everyone seems to benefit, but they are wasting time and money and adding nothing to science. The institutions are being ripped off, because they pay publishers huge subscriptions for this stuff."

Krohn sees an arms race brewing, in which computers churn out ever more convincing papers, while other programs are designed to sniff them out. Does he regret the beast he helped unleash, or is he proud that it is still exposing weaknesses in the world of science? "I'm psyched, it's so great. These papers are so funny, you read them and can't help but laugh. They are total bs. And I don't see this going away."

%u2022 This article was amended on 27 February 2014, to cite Nature as the source of the story


It's unfortunate this happens. It means people are falling asleep on the job. Check out retraction watch if you want to stay on top of what's going on. Link
Tim Cook advises climate change deniers to get out of Apple Stock: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57619770-37/tim- cook-advises-climate-change-deniers-to-get-out-of- apple-stock/
Quoting 755. Naga5000:
Tim Cook advises climate change deniers to get out of Apple Stock: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57619770-37/tim- cook-advises-climate-change-deniers-to-get-out-of- apple-stock/
Awesome. I always did like that guy... ;-)
Quoting 752. tramp96:
Link

How computer-generated fake papers are flooding academia
More and more academic papers that are essentially gobbledegook are being written by computer programs %u2013 and accepted at conferences

%u2022 Higgs would not have found his boson in today's publish-or-perish research culture...

[snip]
From what I've always heard, the bar for peer-reviewed journal articles has always been substantially higher than it is for peer-reviewed conference publications, despite the fact that some would claim otherwise. In short, the latter tend to be sloppier and less thorough given the inherent time restraints, the push for profit, and the fact that conference attendees can't always be certain of anonymity, so they may be less rigorous and critical than they'd otherwise be. So it didn't surprise me when I heard of the prank/expose some years ago.

FWIW, here's an excellent article on fake academic conferences and the rubbish papers they produce.

Just goes to prove--again--that because of simple greed, unrestricted, unregulated capitalism will always lead to corruption and avarice. Laissez-faire? A fairytale...
Quoting 755. Naga5000:
Tim Cook advises climate change deniers to get out of Apple Stock: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57619770-37/tim- cook-advises-climate-change-deniers-to-get-out-of- apple-stock/

They should short it and then watch him squirm
Quoting 759. tramp96:

We have laws they just need to be enforced.
When you have a president that has his signature law
passed by a dem congress that can't read and then
bypasses the constitution and changes what ever he
wants, that doesn't bode well in terms of setting the
example however it does show his true colors.
So you've chosen to go off on yet another ODS-based anti-Obama rant, this time in response to a comment about how greed has apparently corrupted portions of the peer-review process. FYI, that's known as a "non sequitur" (the term comes from the Latin for "it does not follow"). It's like you asking me for the score of last night's basketball game, and me responding by telling you how many historians have concluded that the Bush/Cheney administration was by far the worst one in U.S. history.

Know what I mean?

In the future, save your ideological nonsense for your freeper friends, and try to stay on topic here. Thanks!
Quoting 757. Neapolitan:
From what I've always heard, the bar for peer-reviewed journal articles has always been substantially higher than it is for peer-reviewed conference publications, despite the fact that some would claim otherwise. In short, the latter tend to be sloppier and less thorough given the inherent time restraints, the push for profit, and the fact that conference attendees can't always be certain of anonymity, so they may be less rigorous and critical than they'd otherwise be.

Heck, most conferences I've gone to where I've had the option of submitting a conference paper, the paper was not peer reviewed. They reviewed my abstract to accept/reject, and that was basically it. That's why conference papers are cited differently in reports and journal articles, and is why conference papers are not given the same weight as peer-reviewed journal articles in the science world.
#762

I have no problem on one's political stance..
However..
I believe you crossed the line with the verbiage you used..
I reported you..

Quoting you..

" I'll take shots at him every time"

This can be interpreted in several ways..
I see it as threatening..
Quoting 759. tramp96:

We have laws they just need to be enforced.
When you have a president that has his signature law
passed by a dem congress that can't read and then
bypasses the constitution and changes what ever he
wants, that doesn't bode well in terms of setting the
example however it does show his true colors.


You honestly have no idea what you are talking about. I feel bad for people like you that are so duped and fooled. Everything is black and white, there is no middle, no compromise, and no self awareness of reality. It's only repeated b.s. talking points that have been hammered so hard into your brain that you believe nothing else, even when shown evidence. I believe that is at the best simple brainwashing and at the worst true psychosis. Back to the ignore list for you.
765. yoboi
Quoting 764. Naga5000:


You honestly have no idea what you are talking about. I feel bad for people like you that are so duped and fooled. Everything is black and white, there is no middle, no compromise, and no self awareness of reality. It's only repeated b.s. talking points that have been hammered so hard into your brain that you believe nothing else, even when shown evidence. I believe that is at the best simple brainwashing and at the worst true psychosis. Back to the ignore list for you.


Naga don't you think you are being a little rough???
Quoting 765. yoboi:


Naga don't you think you are being a little rough???


No.
Quoting 765. yoboi:


Naga don't you think you are being a little rough???

The problem is that you are closed minded. I have looked at just about everything that you have posted(links) I have listened to NPR and enjoyed it. I grew up in Canada so I'm familiar with the style they use and I have missed it. You won't watch shows like Kudlow who by the way had one of his regular right leaning guys and Howard Dean to refute him. Dean was great he made his point calmly and intelligently and that is how the whole segment went. Real people real issues so don't tell me I'm lost or brainwashed just because I disagree with you. NPR is a great source but it is limited I suggest you mix in some Special Report on Fox,a lot of very smart and well spoken dems on there that make very good points.
Quoting 767. tramp96:

The problem is that you are closed minded. I have looked at just about everything that you have posted(links) I have listened to NPR and enjoyed it. I grew up in Canada so I'm familiar with the style they use and I have missed it. You won't watch shows like Kudlow who by the way had one of his regular right leaning guys and Howard Dean to refute him. Dean was great he made his point calmly and intelligently and that is how the whole segment went. Real people real issues so don't tell me I'm lost or brainwashed just because I disagree with you. NPR is a great source but it is limited I suggest you mix in some Special Report on Fox,a lot of very smart and well spoken dems on there that make very good points.
Well, that makes it even worse, doesn't it? If you are getting the diverse input you claim, but still spewing out the one-sided, highly politicized, unsubstantiated nonsense that you customarily post, then the problem must be you and your way of thinking, right? not your sources.
Quoting 768. tramp96:

Hysterical on two different levels.
You poor thing. When I made that post what you infer didn't even cross my mind but the interesting thing is that it does creep into your head.
Scary.
Now that's condescending!
#768

This is my Last response to you..
How about..
Send that post to Homeland Security..
Let us know how it goes for ya..
North Carolina Legislature Prepares to Ban Sea From Rising

can California ban earthquakes? :)

nice to see that some have used this blog to show their real personalities.
Quoting 769. FLwolverine:
Well, that makes it even worse, doesn't it? If you are getting the diverse input you claim, but still spewing out the one-sided, highly politicized, unsubstantiated nonsense that you customarily post, then the problem must be you and your way of thinking, right? not your sources.

It is not unsubstantiated look around.
From Dr. David Suzuki:

"Governments, media and much of the public are preoccupied with the economy. That means demands such as those for recognition of First Nations treaty rights and environmental protection are often seen as impediments to the goal of maintaining economic growth. The gross domestic product has become a sacred indicator of well-being. Ask corporate CEOs and politicians how they did last year and they’ll refer to the rise or fall of the GDP.

“Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country. It measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.” —Robert F. Kennedy.



...We deserve better indicators of societal well-being that extend beyond mere economic growth. Many economists and social scientists are proposing such indicators. Some argue we need a “genuine progress indicator,” which would include environmental and social factors as well as economic wealth. A number of groups, including Friends of the Earth, have suggested an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, which would take into account “income inequality, environmental damage, and depletion of environmental assets.” The Kingdom of Bhutan has suggested measuring gross national happiness.

Whatever we come up with, it has to be better than GDP with its absurd emphasis on endless growth on a finite planet."(Emphasis added)

More ...
Bipartisan Governors Coalition Wants to Prepare Nation’s Grid For More Wind Energy

A coalition of governors who advocate for wind energy want to work with the nation’s energy regulators to prepare the grid for more wind.

Members of the Governors Wind Energy Coalition got the ball rolling earlier this month in a meeting with Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioners (FERC), discussing transmission development, grid modernization, regional cooperation, coordinated regional operations and other ways in which the parties can promote the deployment of wind energy.

“The value of wind energy resources to our states’ economies cannot be unlocked unless they have access to a market,” South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard, chairman of the Coalition, said in a statement. “Long-distance transmission is the critical link between these resources and the customers who want clean and less expensive energy.”

The coalition outlined several actions governors would take in the next year with regard to grid improvements. They include:

Inform the nation’s other governors about the positive economic impact of improving our transmission infrastructure.
Support state and regional cooperation on transmission development by collaborating with state policy makers, state utility commissions and system operators. The Upper Midwest Transmission Development Initiative is an excellent example of governors collaborating to advance transmission development, while the Southwest Power Pool’s regional plans show that interstate initiatives can work with FERC’s support.
Remove state legislative barriers to transmission siting, particularly ones that don’t allow state utility commissions to consider economic, reliability, environmental and functional benefits beyond state boundaries.
Establish one-stop shops for transmission siting in states. About half of the states use this approach, which better enables transmission development, according to the coalition. One-stop-shopping can streamline the process for states while identifying unnecessary bottlenecks and showing developers that states would welcome modernization.
Examine how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s anticipated existing power plant greenhouse gas standard could help wind development.
Support state and regional demand response and smart grid policies that improve overall system efficiency, reliability, and resilience and aid in the integration of increasing amounts of distributed energy resources such as wind energy.


More ...
CNBC’s Joe Kernen Compares Climate Change to ‘Witchcraft’


CNBC’s Joe Kernen isn’t interested in your preposterous theories that climate change has anything to do with carbon dioxide emissions caused by humans.

You think last month was among the warmest Januaries of all time? Don’t bother him with such talk.

Though nearly 100 percent of climate scientists said climate change was caused by human activity less than a year ago, Kernen has his own ideas. After letting out a hefty sigh, Kernen had the following to say:

“[Climate change] is almost like witchcraft … In the middle ages, you would attribute adverse weather events to witchcraft. ”Now, you just have CO2 at this point.”


More ...
An update on the Arctic. The hole near the Pole that was forming has filled in. Compaction of the ice by wind seems the likely cause.

From Geology.com..

Who Owns the Arctic Ocean?..
Complete article HERE




Excerpt:

"Continental Shelf Areas


In addition to the 200 nautical mile economic zone, each country can extend its claim up to 350 nautical miles from its shoreline for those areas that can be proven to be an extension of that country's continental shelf. To make this claim, a nation must acquire geological data that documents the geographic extent of its continental shelf and submit it to a United Nations committee for consideration. Most countries with a potential claim to the Arctic are currently mapping the seafloor to document their claim."
Quoting 780. Birthmark:
An update on the Arctic. The hole near the Pole that was forming has filled in. Compaction of the ice by wind seems the likely cause.





And have a look at this:



That doesn't make any sense in late February. Look at what's happening in the Fram Strait.
A statement without a link, paper,or other Science peer review, makes ones seemingly truth solid as a brick to the poster.

But in reality,its a warm mist that evaporates under the true heat of Science.
Quoting 769. FLwolverine:
Well, that makes it even worse, doesn't it? If you are getting the diverse input you claim, but still spewing out the one-sided, highly politicized, unsubstantiated nonsense that you customarily post, then the problem must be you and your way of thinking, right? not your sources.


He will never get it. Sweeping assumptions about people based solely on being an expert is his own mind. Trying to base a counterpoint on another assumption about my sources. And still trying to talk down like he is some authority figure on whatever topic.

Somehow he has claimed to have read all mylinks, but believes Krauthammer to be credible. "There is no working with that kind of insanity. The experts are wrong, except for mine on my side." It is a prime example of stereotypical conservative contradiction, false expertise, and being trapped in the bubble.

My best advice would be to read a book not written by, Beck, O-Reilly, Limbaugh, or Hannity, but to pick up a history book and learn a bit about the world around him. It would be pointless advice, but my advice none the less.
From Greg Laden's Blog:

A Letter From John Holdren Regarding Roger Pielke Jr%u2019s Statements

Drought and Global Climate Change: An Analysis of Statements by Roger Pielke Jr

John P. Holdren, 28 February 2014

Introduction
In the question and answer period following my February 25 testimony on the Administration%u2019s Climate Action Plan before the Oversight Subcommittee of the U.S. Senate%u2019s Committee on Environment and Public Works, Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) suggested that I had misled the American people with comments I made to reporters on February 13, linking recent severe droughts in the American West to global climate change. To support this proposition, Senator Sessions quoted from testimony before the Environment and Public Works Committee the previous July by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr., a University of Colorado political scientist. Specifically, the Senator read the following passages from Dr. Pielke%u2019s written testimony:

It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.

Drought has %u201Cfor the most part, become shorter, less, frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U.S. over the last century%u201D. Globally, %u201Cthere has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.%u201D


Footnotes in the testimony attribute the two statements in quotation marks within the second passage to the US Climate Change Science Program%u2019s 2008 report on extremes in North America and a 2012 paper by Sheffield et al . in the journal Nature, respectively.

I replied that the indicated comments by Dr. Pielke, and similar ones attributed by Senator Sessions to Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama, were not representative of main- stream views on this topic in the climate-science community; and I promised to provide for the record a more complete response with relevant scientific references.

Dr. Pielke also commented directly, in a number of tweets on February 14 and thereafter, on my February 13 statements to reporters about the California drought, and he elaborated on the tweets for a blog post on The Daily Caller site (also on February 14). In what follows, I will address the relevant statements in those venues, as well. He argued there, specifically, that my statements on drought %u201Cdirectly contradicted scientific reports%u201D, and in support of that assertion, he offered the same statements from his July testimony that were quoted by Senator Sessions (see above). He also added this:

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that there is %u201Cnot enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought.%u201D


In the rest of this response, I will show, first, that the indicated quote from the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) about U.S. droughts is missing a crucial adjacent sentence in the CCSP report, which supports my position about drought in the American West. I will also show that Dr. Pielke%u2019s statements about global drought trends, while irrelevant to my comments about drought in California and the Colorado River Basin, are seriously misleading, as well, concerning what is actually in the UN Panel%u2019s latest report and what is in the current scientific literature.

Read more ...
From Neven's forum: Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data

IJIS Extent:

14,025,372 km2 (February 28, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 11,410 km2 from previous day
Down 53,547 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -7,650 km2)
Up 408,670 km2 for the month of February (daily average: 14,595 km2)

619,479 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
179,272 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
316,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2011 [1st] and 2006).
33rd day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
Quoting 785. JohnLonergan:
From Greg Laden's Blog:

A Letter From John Holdren Regarding Roger Pielke Jr


Link

Put your coffee down first.
Millennials use finance to challenge universities' fossil fuel addiction

Student movements in the US are calling for universities to divest from carbon assets in favour of clean energy

"Millennials are leveraging finance to combat one of the most terrifying challenges the world has ever faced: climate change. In order to explain the current explosion of fossil fuel divestment and reinvestment campaigns taking off across the globe, it is essential, first, to understand the story behind the numbers.

Climate change is often presented as a looming threat just beyond the horizon, but for me and others of my generation we understand that the world we live in is already changed. In the past 10 years, I have lived through summer after summer of record-breaking temperatures and witnessed violent "100-year storms" occurring annually." ...


"... In 2010, Swarthmore College students were working with community organisers in West Virginia to end the practice of mountaintop removal coal mining. They began to look for clear ways that they could take action in solidarity with the communities directly affected by extraction. After a little digging, students discovered that some of the companies practicing mountaintop removal coal mining were held in their university's investment portfolio. These students organised to launch the first fossil fuel divestment campaign.

Divestment has been used effectively throughout history to place social and economic pressure on an industry or government that is causing harm. By publicly withdrawing financial support, fossil fuel divestment addresses the root of the problem: the unchecked expansion of fossil fuel companies on an endless quest for profit. If these universities – many of which are leading the way on climate change research – fail to divest their holdings, they are throwing away the futures of their students.

In the last 18 months, students on more than 300 US campuses have launched divestment campaigns. Nine campuses have already committed to divest. In collaboration with student efforts, even trustees have spoken in favour of divestment as a key component of their fiduciary responsibility to the university.

The movement for divestment is fundamentally a movement for justice. Both shareholders and stakeholders are developing a complex understanding of how investment practices can tangibly impact community-led development. Millennials are asking their universities to invest in solutions to climate change by investing in both clean energy and other initiatives that build thriving, resilient communities. At the Responsible Endowments Coalition, we help students begin the dialogue about reinvestment on campus." ...

..."If you are an alumnus, current student, or community member who believes money should be flowing into community institutions rather than lining the pockets of oil executives, this is a call to action. One of the best ways to get involved is to find a campus or community group in your area and ask what you can do. Some campuses have been met with resistance from their administrations; if you are an alum, your support can go a long way toward changing minds on campus.

This campaign will not be won overnight. The struggle against environmental racism and climate change requires a lifetime of commitment. However, it is our belief that by working alongside movements for racial, economic and social justice, our generation can create a future where economic prosperity is not contingent on exploitation and extraction."


Quoting 787. Physicistretired:


Link

Put your coffee down first.


If Sessions is a stickler for absolute fact why did he allow this blatant example of quote-mining by Pielke where he didn’t include the very next sentence, “The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West…” from the IPCC report.
Quoting 786. JohnLonergan:
From Neven's forum: Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data

IJIS Extent:

14,025,372 km2 (February 28, 2014)

619,479 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
179,272 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
316,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Huh? 316,000 square miles less than 2012 on this date? Wasn't 2012 when the record-setting melt-out was? I thought Arctic sea ice supposed to be in some kind of a recovery. At least that's what some kept posting here over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over last fall...
Quoting 786. JohnLonergan:
From Neven's forum: Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data

IJIS Extent:

14,025,372 km2 (February 28, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 11,410 km2 from previous day
Down 53,547 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -7,650 km2)
Up 408,670 km2 for the month of February (daily average: 14,595 km2)

619,479 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
179,272 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
316,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2011 [1st] and 2006).
33rd day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
I just added the late-arriving ea ice area stats to that post:

CT area:

13,044,427 km2 (February 28, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Down 7,652 km2 from previous day
Up 145,414 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 20,773 km2)
Up 563,380 km2 for the month of February (daily average: 20,121 km2)

572,269 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
195,875 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
150,998 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
23nd day this year, and second consecutive day, among the lowest three years on record.

Lowest February average on record.
Quoting 792. Neapolitan:
Huh? 316,000 square miles less than 2012 on this date? Wasn't 2012 when the record-setting melt-out was? I thought Arctic sea ice supposed to be in some kind of a recovery. At least that's what some kept posting here over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over last fall...


Checked your graphs again today, Neo.

February of 2006 was the (previous) record low. And 2007 was a 'quantum shift' in Arctic sea ice extent.

Any predictions? Because I'm not feeling good about this.
Quoting 794. Physicistretired:


Checked your graphs again today, Neo.

February of 2006 was the (previous) record low. And 2007 was a 'quantum shift' in Arctic sea ice extent.

Any predictions? Because I'm not feeling good about this.
Me, neither. Of course, some of the more conservative-minded types at Neven's seem to be of the opinion that this year won't see anything spectacular or record-breaking, and neither will next. In fact, a few say 2012's numbers likely won't be met for at least two more years.

On the other hand, I'm not quite so sure, and neither are a number of others. But, as always, I guess we'll see. The February PIOMAS numbers will be an important drop of data, obviously. If ice volume is still climbing toward the annual maximum on the same curve, then obviously the lower extent and area numbers are wildly misleading. But if, as I suspect, the PIOMAS numbers have dropped even closer to the 2012 numbers--a trend clearly visible toward the end of January--I believe the 2014 minimum may be very interesting indeed.
Simferopol, Ukraine (CNN) -- [Breaking news alert, 5:34 p.m. ET]

In a 90-minute conversation Saturday, U.S. President Barack Obama expressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin "his deep concern over Russia's clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia's obligations under the U.N. Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine," according to a statement released by the White House.

"...President Obama made clear that Russia's continued violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia's standing in the international community."

According to an account of the conversation released by the Kremlin, Putin stressed "the presence of real dangers to the lives and health of Russians who are currently present in the Ukrainian territory." Putin said that Russia reserves the right to defend its interests and the Russian-speaking people who live there.

I think every melt season from now until a few years after the first ice-free month will be interesting.

I've quit trying to guess what the ice will do, though. I whiffed by ~million sqkm too high in 2012 and ~million too low in 2013. Lesson learned. Make it a spectator sport and don't bet any money. :)

I will say that I expect open water at the Pole this summer. That very nearly happened last year. As always, it depends on the Arctic weather.

And I stand by my 2017 guess as first ice-free* day in the Arctic.


*ice free = less than 1 million sqkm
Wow..lot of clouds but North of AK is clear & there is alot of ice missing compared to the last few days. Been watching it crack up but wow.. Click pic twice to make big.




Quoting 795. Neapolitan:
Me, neither. Of course, some of the more conservative-minded types at Neven's seem to be of the opinion that this year won't see anything spectacular or record-breaking, and neither will next. In fact, a few say 2012's numbers likely won't be met for at least two more years.

On the other hand, I'm not quite so sure, and neither are a number of others. But, as always, I guess we'll see. The February PIOMAS numbers will be an important drop of data, obviously. If ice volume is still climbing toward the annual maximum on the same curve, then obviously the lower extent and area numbers are wildly misleading. But if, as I suspect, the PIOMAS numbers have dropped even closer to the 2012 numbers--a trend clearly visible toward the end of January--I believe the 2014 minimum may be very interesting indeed.


I follow Neven closely - but have been a bit out of the loop this winter (taking care of a sick Mom in another state, limited access to the internet).

The possible emergence of a strong El Nino later this year has my complete attention now. Rapid warming of the planet at the same time that we might see low Arctic sea ice area/extent/volume would be most unfortunate.
Quoting 799. Physicistretired:


I follow Neven closely - but have been a bit out of the loop this winter (taking care of a sick Mom in another state, limited access to the internet).

The possible emergence of a strong El Nino later this year has my complete attention now. Rapid warming of the planet at the same time that we might see low Arctic sea ice area/extent/volume would be most unfortunate.

Agreed.

Best wishes to you and your mother.
The Ice Age cometh jus round the bend ..


Tamino on the increasing number of Hot Days

Climate is defined as the mean and variation of weather over long periods of time (typically, 30 years). I emphasize the “and variation” part because climate change doesn’t just refer to a changes in the mean, it also refers to changes in the variation.

One aspect of that change in variation is highlighted in a new paper (Seneviratne et al. 2014, Nature Climate Change, 4, 161-163) which points out that although global average temperature may have been increasing more slowly recently than in the previous two decades or so, the frequency of hot days in land areas has been increasing faster recently than in the previous two decades or so.

Read more ...
'Social cost' of carbon emissions rising but still underestimated, experts warn

LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Climate change impacts - from more extreme droughts and floods to effects like crop losses and sea-level rise - are costing Americans $37 per tonne of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, according to an updated estimate by the U.S. government.

The costs come in the form of higher food prices, rising insurance bills, greater spending on healthcare and more taxpayer dollars spent on things like federal emergency relief, economists say.

But the “social cost” of climate-changing emissions, updated from $21 a tonne back in 2010, probably still substantially underestimates the true costs associated with climate change, argues Laurie Johnson, chief economist with the Natural Resources Defense Fund, a New York-based environmental advocacy group.

For instance, while the updated estimate takes into account some consequences of coastal storms, like Superstorm Sandy that struck the east coast of the United States in 2012, it does not include damage from forest fires that burned 9.2 million acres of U.S. land in 2013, nor changing threats to farms and forests from pests and diseases that are altering their ranges or surviving better in shifting weather conditions, Johnson told a teleconference on Wednesday.

The estimate also does not look at the combined impact of sea-level rise and storm surges, “which are pretty much a lot of the damage from Hurricane Sandy” and other coastal problems, Johnson said.

Gernot Wagner, a senior economist with the Environmental Defense Fund, another green advocacy group, said such omissions mean the cost “can only be seen as a conservative or lower-bound estimate”.
He did praise the government’s effort to put a price on the costs associated with climate emissions, saying it was “a good job”, but stressed “more can and must be done”.

'EXPENSIVE FUTURE'

The Obama administration’s cost-of-carbon figure has been put to use in a variety of ways, including to justify energy efficiency rules put out by the Department of Energy, said Richard Revesz, director of the Institute for Policy Integrity at the New York University School of Law.

It is also expected to play into regulations being crafted to govern the building of new power plants in the United States, he said.

The experts urged the government to continue trying to bring the best and most updated climate science into the cost estimates, to help drive policy that could hold down carbon emissions and lower the costs linked with the damage they cause.

“Superstorm Sandy, summer wildfires in Colorado, and severe drought in the west have given us a glimpse into a future with climate change, and it’s expensive,” they noted in a blog.

“The government is acting wisely to estimate the cost of climate damage and should continue that work by making sure it’s got as complete an accounting as possible,” they added.
Five temperature data sets with solar variability, ENSO and volcanic aerosols removed by linear regression to reveal the underlying anthropogenically forced trend. From Foster & Rahmstorf (2011).



I don't see any "pause".
Quoting 784. Naga5000:


He will never get it. Sweeping assumptions about people based solely on being an expert is his own mind. Trying to base a counterpoint on another assumption about my sources. And still trying to talk down like he is some authority figure on whatever topic.

Somehow he has claimed to have read all mylinks, but believes Krauthammer to be credible. "There is no working with that kind of insanity. The experts are wrong, except for mine on my side." It is a prime example of stereotypical conservative contradiction, false expertise, and being trapped in the bubble.

My best advice would be to read a book not written by, Beck, O-Reilly, Limbaugh, or Hannity, but to pick up a history book and learn a bit about the world around him. It would be pointless advice, but mu advice none the less.

Sounds like you can't handle an opinion that disagrees with your
own or something similar to yours. Maybe your just to uptight
like what happened with the goose-step comment.
French winter breaks rainfall records
France’s stormy winter has seen record rainfall, especially in the western region of Brittany that has been racked by successive storms. But it has also been one of the warmest for over a century.
Link
WA’s ‘mad’ summer is proof of climate change: BoM expert

The weather bureau is normally conservative, but Bureau of Meteorology climate expert Neil Bennett said the data was staring climate change sceptics “in the face”.

“It’s climate change. It’s warming. It’s staring you in the face,” he said.

“This is crazy. This is madness, what’s going on now.

“The climate doesn’t change like this. This is really remarkable. The last four summers have all either been the hottest or second hottest on rec­ord.

“It’s not just Perth – in Bunbury eight of the hottest summers have occurred since the turn of the century.

“What we are saying is when you look and see the trend is going up, it seems foolish to try to ignore that trend.

“This is really, really unusual. It’s a sign that the temps across Australia are warming. There is no getting away from it.”


Link
Melbourne's blistering spell of heat over six weeks this summer was more typical of Mildura or Broken Hill, and pushed an otherwise mild summer to one of the city's hottest 10 on record.

A cool December made way for a series of heatwaves that included the city's first run of four consecutive days of 41 degrees or higher maximums.



Read more: Link
CO2 Continues Dangerous Rise, Hits 400.2 Parts Per Million in Late February

Link
Thanks to Climate Change, West Nile Virus Could Be Your New Neighbor

A new study shows how climate change will contribute to the spread of the mosquito-borne West Nile virus


Read more: Climate Change Will Help Spread West Nile Virus | TIME.com
Quoting 810. ColoradoBob1:
Thanks to Climate Change, West Nile Virus Could Be Your New Neighbor

A new study shows how climate change will contribute to the spread of the mosquito-borne West Nile virus


Read more: Climate Change Will Help Spread West Nile Virus | TIME.com


The sliver lining in this ,.... the deniers and big dogs get bit just like the rest of us.
From XL Dissent:

WASHINGTON, DC – Hundreds of students and young people are expected to risk arrest in an act of civil disobedience at the White House this March 2 to pressure President Obama to reject the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.

The sit-in at the White House will be the largest act of civil disobedience by young people in the recent history of the environmental movement. The protest, known as “XL Dissent,” is meant to send a clear signal to President Obama that the base that helped elect him sees Keystone XL as a decision that will define his entire legacy.

“Obama was the first President I voted for, and I want real climate action and a rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline,” said Nick Stracco, a Senior at Tulane University. “The people that voted him into office have made it absolutely clear what we want, and that’s to reject Keystone XL.”

Keystone XL has become an iconic fight for young people across the country, many of whom are involved in local campaigns to help stop the pipeline or the broader fossil fuel divestment campaign, which has spread to over 300 universities across the United States.

“As young people, the Keystone XL pipeline assures irreversible environmental destruction,” said Aly Johnson-Kurts, who is taking a gap year from Smith College to help fight the climate crisis. “We stand in solidarity with First Nations communities and other groups on the front lines who have been fighting Tar Sands development for years, and call on President Obama to reject this pipeline to prevent climate catastrophe from defining our future.”

The “XL Dissent” protest on March 2 will begin with a march from Georgetown University to the White House. After a rally in Lafayette Square, hundreds of students and young people are expected to risk arrest at the White House fence. The day before the protest, students will meet for a non-violent direct action training and fossil fuel divestment conference.

The sit-in at the White House has been endorsed by a wide range of pipeline opponents. 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben said, “As the fight to stop KXL enters its final stages, it’s truly inspiring to see young people at the forefront. This pipeline is scheduled to last 40 years – right through the prime of their lives. President Obama needs to look them in the face.”

Youth environmentalist and grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, Conor Kennedy said, “The fight to stop KXL will be one of the defining battles of our generation. A victory here will mark the close of the old carbon era, and the start of the new energy revolution—our revolution. America’s youth now have the chance to take up the torch, and light a new fire.”

-----

Statement by James Hansen on XL Dissent

While speaking at the University of Oregon Law Conference on March 1st, James Hansen made the following statement about XL Dissent.

“These people who are willing to put themselves on the line are real heros because our leaders do not understand the importance of this. For them to rule that there’s no environmental impact is pure scientific garbage. We have to leave those dirtiest fuels in the planet in the ground. We can still do that. There’s only a teeny fraction of tar sands that have been extracted so far. If we keep that pipeline from being built and get a fee on carbon, all of that stuff will be left in the ground. But we better stop the pipeline first. “
I think they should do that in China that is where
the big problem. I recommend Tiananmen Square
Quoting 814. tramp96:
I think they should do that in China that is where
the big problem. I recommend Tiananmen Square


Without the EPA, you could enjoy the fabulous air quality that the Chinese enjoy today.
Quoting 815. Creideiki:


Without the EPA, you could enjoy the fabulous air quality that the Chinese enjoy today.

They can invite the EPA to go with them.
They are doing a green thing before the Oscars and I
believe that is he way to go instead of hauling a bunch
of wide eyed kids to do your dirty work for you.
817. yoboi
Quoting 812. Xandra:
From XL Dissent:

WASHINGTON, DC – Hundreds of students and young people are expected to risk arrest in an act of civil disobedience at the White House this March 2 to pressure President Obama to reject the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.

The sit-in at the White House will be the largest act of civil disobedience by young people in the recent history of the environmental movement. The protest, known as “XL Dissent,” is meant to send a clear signal to President Obama that the base that helped elect him sees Keystone XL as a decision that will define his entire legacy.

“Obama was the first President I voted for, and I want real climate action and a rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline,” said Nick Stracco, a Senior at Tulane University. “The people that voted him into office have made it absolutely clear what we want, and that’s to reject Keystone XL.”

Keystone XL has become an iconic fight for young people across the country, many of whom are involved in local campaigns to help stop the pipeline or the broader fossil fuel divestment campaign, which has spread to over 300 universities across the United States.

“As young people, the Keystone XL pipeline assures irreversible environmental destruction,” said Aly Johnson-Kurts, who is taking a gap year from Smith College to help fight the climate crisis. “We stand in solidarity with First Nations communities and other groups on the front lines who have been fighting Tar Sands development for years, and call on President Obama to reject this pipeline to prevent climate catastrophe from defining our future.”

The “XL Dissent” protest on March 2 will begin with a march from Georgetown University to the White House. After a rally in Lafayette Square, hundreds of students and young people are expected to risk arrest at the White House fence. The day before the protest, students will meet for a non-violent direct action training and fossil fuel divestment conference.

The sit-in at the White House has been endorsed by a wide range of pipeline opponents. 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben said, “As the fight to stop KXL enters its final stages, it’s truly inspiring to see young people at the forefront. This pipeline is scheduled to last 40 years – right through the prime of their lives. President Obama needs to look them in the face.”

Youth environmentalist and grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, Conor Kennedy said, “The fight to stop KXL will be one of the defining battles of our generation. A victory here will mark the close of the old carbon era, and the start of the new energy revolution—our revolution. America’s youth now have the chance to take up the torch, and light a new fire.”

-----

Statement by James Hansen on XL Dissent

While speaking at the University of Oregon Law Conference on March 1st, James Hansen made the following statement about XL Dissent.

“These people who are willing to put themselves on the line are real heros because our leaders do not understand the importance of this. For them to rule that there’s no environmental impact is pure scientific garbage. We have to leave those dirtiest fuels in the planet in the ground. We can still do that. There’s only a teeny fraction of tar sands that have been extracted so far. If we keep that pipeline from being built and get a fee on carbon, all of that stuff will be left in the ground. But we better stop the pipeline first. “



I hope this time they pick up their litter instead of leaving it on the ground.....
Quoting 802. JohnLonergan:

Tamino on the increasing number of Hot Days

Climate is defined as the mean and variation of weather over long periods of time (typically, 30 years). I emphasize the “and variation” part because climate change doesn’t just refer to a changes in the mean, it also refers to changes in the variation.

One aspect of that change in variation is highlighted in a new paper (Seneviratne et al. 2014, Nature Climate Change, 4, 161-163) which points out that although global average temperature may have been increasing more slowly recently than in the previous two decades or so, the frequency of hot days in land areas has been increasing faster recently than in the previous two decades or so.

Read more ...


Another outstanding analysis by Tamino. Placing one of the images here, John, to encourage others to read it:

Quoting 813. Xandra:
XL Dissent

XL Dissent - Live Now


That is awesome they are putting on a great protest!
Quoting 813. Xandra:
XL Dissent

XL Dissent - Live Now


Am enjoying watching that link, Xandra - thanks.

They certainly have better weather than we did last year.
Quoting 819. Skyepony:


That is awesome they are putting on a great protest!

Bit of curse word use warning at the end of this..

Protesters made it near the White House. They are gonna rally then approach.. There is double barricades & Something new...not patty wagons but jailbuses & alot of cops.
Quoting 818. Physicistretired:


Another outstanding analysis by Tamino. Placing one of the images here, John, to encourage others to read it:


The one that shows the larger geographic area is even better. The most extreme end of the temperature distribution is showing the strongest rate of change. I suppose that makes sense in a way, if you visualize a shifting bell curve.
In the protest were talking earlier to one guy that is headed to NY next. Something about the same strains of corexit used after Gulf oils found in other rivers & up in one of the great lakes. It was independent testing. I think they are trying to get some University in on it.


They are currently erecting the mass booking tent!
Arctic sea ice area is currently 182,000 square kilometers less than it was at this same time in 2012--year of the records. It's also currently 705,000 square kilometers less than it was on this same date last year. That's an area larger than the state of Texas.

Oh, sea ice recovery, where art thou?
Quoting 827. Neapolitan:
Arctic sea ice area is currently 182,000 square kilometers less than it was at this same time in 2012--year of the records. It's also currently 705,000 square kilometers less than it was on this same date last year. That's an area larger than the state of Texas.

Oh, sea ice recovery, where art thou?
It seems that the denialist roosters have ceased crowing about sea ice!
Seems like it's all about pipelines these days. Aside from the ethnic issues and naval bases, there's another reason why Russia has such an interest in Ukraine:



"About 80 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe pass through Ukraine. Europe, in turn, depends on Russia for 40 percent of its imported fuel.

"According to Mikhail Korchemkin, head of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting firm in Pennsylvania, the most important pipelines that run through Ukraine are the ones leading to Slovakia. They will eventually take gas to Germany, Austria and Italy."


(Source)
Global warming felt to deepest reaches of ocean
PhysOrg, 1 hour ago
In the mid-1970s, the first available satellite images of Antarctica during the polar winter revealed a huge ice-free region within the ice pack of the Weddell Sea. This ice-free region, or polynya, stayed open for three full winters before it closed.
Subsequent research showed that the opening was maintained as relatively warm waters churned upward from kilometres below the ocean's surface and released heat from the ocean's deepest reaches. But the polynya—which was the size of New Zealand—has not reappeared in the nearly 40 years since it closed, and scientists have since come to view it as a naturally rare event.
Now, however, a study led by researchers from McGill University suggests a new explanation: The 1970s polynya may have been the last gasp of what was previously a more common feature of the Southern Ocean, and which is now suppressed due to the effects of climate change on ocean salinity.
The McGill researchers, working with colleagues from the University of Pennsylvania, analyzed tens of thousands of measurements made by ships and robotic floats in the ocean around Antarctica over a 60-year period. Their study, published in Nature Climate Change, shows that the ocean's surface has been steadily getting less salty since the 1950s. This lid of fresh water on top of the ocean prevents mixing with the warm waters underneath. As a result, the deep ocean heat has been unable to get out and melt back the wintertime Antarctic ice pack. ...

Whole article see link above.
It's started raining on the KeystoneXL protest in front of the white house.. cold & raining... live streaming~ the foul mouthed guy we were watching bailed cause he couldn't get his luggage wet & he was getting on a train to get out of there before the snow hit. So here's the new stream... much better.

Cops & swat cleaned up all the protesters playing dead with the dead fish & birds in the oil spill..which they also cleaned up. Those protesters were put through the booking tent...where they were arrested in private..then put on buses. There was alot. There are hundreds of other protesters that have zip tied themselves to the white house fence & are now in the cold rain as well.
Quoting 825. ScottLincoln:

The one that shows the larger geographic area is even better. The most extreme end of the temperature distribution is showing the strongest rate of change. I suppose that makes sense in a way, if you visualize a shifting bell curve.


That's a frightening paper, Scott. Just finished it - free access here, but you must register with Nature Climate Change.

I agree with your point about a shifting bell curve - as Hansen et al described just a few years ago.

From Hansen et al, 2012:



and:



From Seneviratne et al, 2014:



Very well-aligned.

5-sigma deviations don't happen. They especially don't happen with increasing frequency, over larger and larger areas of land.
Quoting 831. Skyepony:
It's started raining on the KeystoneXL protest in front of the white house.. cold & raining... live streaming~ the foul mouthed guy we were watching bailed cause he couldn't get his luggage wet & he was getting on a train to get out of there before the snow hit. So here's the new stream... much better.

Cops & swat cleaned up all the protesters playing dead with the dead fish & birds in the oil spill..which they also cleaned up. Those protesters were put through the booking tent...where they were arrested in private..then put on buses. There was alot. There are hundreds of other protesters that have zip tied themselves to the white house fence & are now in the cold rain as well.

Did they ride their bikes to get there?
Quoting 831. Skyepony:
It's started raining on the KeystoneXL protest in front of the white house.. cold & raining... live streaming~ the foul mouthed guy we were watching bailed cause he couldn't get his luggage wet & he was getting on a train to get out of there before the snow hit. So here's the new stream... much better.

Cops & swat cleaned up all the protesters playing dead with the dead fish & birds in the oil spill..which they also cleaned up. Those protesters were put through the booking tent...where they were arrested in private..then put on buses. There was alot. There are hundreds of other protesters that have zip tied themselves to the white house fence & are now in the cold rain as well.


Thanks Skye for the link.

On D.C. protest laws: DC's permit process to "freedom to assemble".
Adm. Dennis C. Blair, former director of National Intelligence and commander US Pacific Command, and Gen. Michael W. Hagee, commandant of the United States Marine Corps, write an op-ed in the NYT today.

It explains the risks of our continuing dependence on oil - and what we should do about it. And there's no mention of climate change whatsoever - just straight-up talk about national vulnerability to price volatility and market manipulation.

Tempering Oil Dependence

"...If America is to remain prosperous and secure in the 21st century, we must make significant progress toward ending our oil dependence. Improvements in fuel economy are a valuable move in the right direction, and President Obama’s announcement of tougher rules for trucks last week should be applauded. But efficiency alone is not enough. We need fuel diversity in the transportation sector to shield our economy from swings in global oil prices.

Our objective should be to reduce the role of oil in transportation to 50 percent within the next 25 years. We can accomplish this through more deployment of fuels like electricity and natural gas, which are domestic, plentiful and not subject to the kinds of anticompetitive forces that manipulate the global oil market. To measure progress, we should establish an interim goal of 75 percent by 2030.

This ambitious but achievable target would provide the American economy with a crucial degree of insurance against future oil-price spikes, while supporting economic growth and a healthy balance of trade. We propose a three-pronged strategy."
Quoting 797. Birthmark:
I think every melt season from now until a few years after the first ice-free month will be interesting.

I've quit trying to guess what the ice will do, though. I whiffed by ~million sqkm too high in 2012 and ~million too low in 2013. Lesson learned. Make it a spectator sport and don't bet any money. :)

I will say that I expect open water at the Pole this summer. That very nearly happened last year. As always, it depends on the Arctic weather.

And I stand by my 2017 guess as first ice-free* day in the Arctic.


*ice free = less than 1 million sqkm


i had originally (a while back) gone with 2018 for ice-free, which i'm still afraid will be right. i think i had put 2016 as the first year where we see open water at the pole (really mostly slush, but you know what i mean).

of course those are just general predictions. can be off by a year or two.

either way, predictions about the specific year aren't super meaningful. what matters is that it's going to happen and over a pretty fast (climate wise) period of time.


In addition to the action in DC on March 2nd, another action will be occurring in San Francisco on March 3rd.

The youth and their allies on the West Coast will be meeting at the San Francisco Ferry Building at 8:30am on Monday, March 3rd, and marching to the State Department building at 1 Market Street to make the XL Dissent message reverberate: Obama must reject the Keystone XL Pipeline!

Those who are willing will engage in civil disobedience at the State Department building by occupying the space, and staging a satirical purchase of our future to highlight the ludicrous nature of the KXL review process. Supporters who will not be engaging in civil disobedience are welcome to attend. United, we’ll convey that we will not sit idly by as our future is imperiled by the carbon bomb that is the KXL; we will not stay silent while communities on the front lines of tar sands operations are continually poisoned; we will not allow business as usual to intoxicate our water, contaminate our air, and threaten the very survival of our species.

For more information, please see the facebook event here.

WHAT: XL Dissent West Coast: Buying Back Our Future
WHEN: March 3, 8:30am
WHERE: Ferry Building to State Department Building San Francisco , 1 Market Street

Sign up here >>

838. yoboi
Quoting 836. schwankmoe:


i had originally (a while back) gone with 2018 for ice-free, which i'm still afraid will be right. i think i had put 2016 as the first year where we see open water at the pole (really mostly slush, but you know what i mean).

of course those are just general predictions. can be off by a year or two.

either way, predictions about the specific year aren't super meaningful. what matters is that it's going to happen and over a pretty fast (climate wise) period of time.



Not going to happen with SC 25...........
Quoting 836. schwankmoe:


i had originally (a while back) gone with 2018 for ice-free, which i'm still afraid will be right. i think i had put 2016 as the first year where we see open water at the pole (really mostly slush, but you know what i mean).

of course those are just general predictions. can be off by a year or two.

either way, predictions about the specific year aren't super meaningful. what matters is that it's going to happen and over a pretty fast (climate wise) period of time.

I think everyone I've seen play the "guess what year will have the first ice-free Arctic" game knows what the stakes are. I view that game as one of those macabre games that we humans play in the face of some horrible outcome.

2016 to 2018 looks like a pretty good time-frame. I'm intrigued by how closely the decline in volume has followed the exponential trend. That doesn't mean that that will continue, of course, but I won't be at all surprised if that's how it plays out.
Quoting 827. Neapolitan:
Arctic sea ice area is currently 182,000 square kilometers less than it was at this same time in 2012--year of the records. It's also currently 705,000 square kilometers less than it was on this same date last year. That's an area larger than the state of Texas.

Oh, sea ice recovery, where art thou?


Thicker on top, more down under
February 5, 2014
Arctic sea ice extent remained lower than average in January, and just within two standard deviations of the long-term average. Arctic temperatures remained above average, even as cold winter air embraced North America. The retention of more sea ice in September 2013 has increased the overall thickness and volume of the ice pack compared to recent years. Antarctic sea ice remains significantly more extensive than average.


a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/"
target="_blank">Link



Cold like never before
From Marco Brogioni and Giovanni Macelloni (IFAC-CNR), 27 November 2013



img src="http://blogs.esa.int/campaignearth/files/2013 /01/1 6-01_DST_4820_small.jpg
">


After the second leg of my journey I arrived at the Concordia base Italian-French base at Dome-C which appears as two cylindrical buildings in the middle of a flat white desert. When you get out of the Busler (the DC-3 airplane’s nickname, which bring us in the heart of Antarctica) a temperature of –45°C and a 650 mBar atmospheric pressure welcome you. It’s a real shock!
My head felt light and I struggled to breath. It’s the effect of low oxygen levels in the air. Concordia is about 3200 m high, but actually because of Earth’s rotation it is like it was at 3700-4000 m. This was just my first impression of what Antarctica is.



Link
Obama white house lawn ornaments





Keystone anyone?
Quoting 840. iceagecoming:


Thicker on top, more down under
February 5, 2014
Arctic sea ice extent remained lower than average in January, and just within two standard deviations of the long-term average. Arctic temperatures remained above average, even as cold winter air embraced North America.
Thanks for repeating what we already know: the Arctic is warmer, and there's less ice. As to whether volume will hold, that's debatable; with a very warm February--and a predicted very warm March--look for last year's hoped-for "recovery" to melt away like...like...well, like ice.
Quoting 841. iceagecoming:
Obama white house lawn ornaments





Keystone anyone?

It's a matter off time. It will come.
He sure has a knack of painting himself
in a corner.
Mar 2, 3:47 PM EST


EVACUATION ORDERS LIFTED AFTER CALIFORNIA STORM

The storm - the largest since 2010 - kept emergency planners and rescue crews busy, but it didn't produce enough rain to pull California out of a crippling drought that has grown to crisis proportions for the state's vast farming industry.
The precipitation will bring the Los Angeles region to about half its normal rainfall for the season, Bill Patzert, a climatologist for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, told the Los Angeles Times

a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CA LIFORNIA_STORMS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFA ULT
" target="_blank">Link


Subzero Temperature Days Reaching Record Levels in Midwest

Share

By: By Chris Dolce
Published: March 1, 2014
70 Days With Subzero Temperatures




Link



Great Lakes Sees Thick Ice, Busy Ice Breakers
UPDATED:
Tuesday, January 7, 2014, 10:51am
By
Mike Simonson


With ice clogging the upper Great Lakes, some ships are stuck, another one shutdown for the winter, and then... there's the little tug that could.
The Coast Guard at the Soo Locks in Sault St. Marie, located in eastern Lake Superior, was busy yesterday. Dispatcher Mark Dobson couldn't talk much. He was on the radio with two ice breakers trying to free vessels. “It's that point in the year that everything's freezing in. So it's just a matter of wait and see who gets stuck and go get 'em. That's the kind of game we're playing.”
Another Coast Guard dispatcher at the Soo says they freed three ships Monday. He called this ice significantly worse than other years.
The Madeline Island Ferry shut down last Friday. Considering they didn't lay-off at all in 2012, Ferry vice-President Robin Trinco-Russell says it's an early shutdown. She says ice on the two miles of Lake Superior to Bayfield is up to a foot thick. Conditions, she says, are severe. “You can barely see the mainland. Right now I can't see the mainland. It's blowing snow. It looks like the Arctic.”
Duluth-Superior tugboat Captain Mike Ojaard says the ice is the worst he's seen and keeps getting thicker. “One ice chunk touches another and it just keeps building down: some areas it's as much as five feet thick. It's the toughest winter that I've seen in my 68 years.”

Quoting 844. iceagecoming:

[...] Arctic [...]




Quoting 844. iceagecoming:
Great Lakes Sees Thick Ice, Busy Ice Breakers
UPDATED:
Tuesday, January 7, 2014, 10:51am
By
Mike Simonson


With ice clogging the upper Great Lakes, some ships are stuck, another one shutdown for the winter, and then... there's the little tug that could.
The Coast Guard at the Soo Locks in Sault St. Marie, located in eastern Lake Superior, was busy yesterday. Dispatcher Mark Dobson couldn't talk much. He was on the radio with two ice breakers trying to free vessels. “It's that point in the year that everything's freezing in. So it's just a matter of wait and see who gets stuck and go get 'em. That's the kind of game we're playing.”
Another Coast Guard dispatcher at the Soo says they freed three ships Monday. He called this ice significantly worse than other years.
The Madeline Island Ferry shut down last Friday. Considering they didn't lay-off at all in 2012, Ferry vice-President Robin Trinco-Russell says it's an early shutdown. She says ice on the two miles of Lake Superior to Bayfield is up to a foot thick. Conditions, she says, are severe. “You can barely see the mainland. Right now I can't see the mainland. It's blowing snow. It looks like the Arctic.”
Duluth-Superior tugboat Captain Mike Ojaard says the ice is the worst he's seen and keeps getting thicker. “One ice chunk touches another and it just keeps building down: some areas it's as much as five feet thick. It's the toughest winter that I've seen in my 68 years.”

The Great Lakes have some thick ice, that's for sure. Of course, it will melt--every speck of it--under summer's relentless heat and sun as it does every year. The question is this: will the Arctic ice melt before the GL ice?
Let's take a comprehensive look at the Arctic sea ice. We'll start with the anomaly of the volume of Arctic sea ice:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Looks like the downward trend is continuing there.

Okay, let's see just how thick the ice is on average:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
It is a bit thicker. Eyeballing it, I make it ~10cm or ~4 inches thicker than in 2012. Not much to get excited about.

Putting that into a somewhat more meaningful graph, we can see that Arctic sea ice extent is riding that 2-sigma low anomaly pretty closely.

Looking at extent for yesterday, we can see that the extent is much below the median extent:


Anyone who can look at all of that and convince themselves of anything other than the fact that Arctic sea ice is in trouble has an outstanding imagination.
From the



Cause and Effect, by Scott Denning
Why are scientists so confident that a business as usual future based on fossil fuels will lead to major changes in the Earth%u2019s climate? Because we seek to understand climate in terms of cause and effect.

A very common misconception about climate change is that projections of future warming are based on extrapolation of recent warming trends. This misconception is fed by media reporting: both %u201Cfourth warmest January on record%u201D and %u201Cglobal warming pause%u201D narratives suggest that we%u2019re waiting with bated breath to see what the climate will do, and whether emerging trends can be understood. Even well-intentioned science outreach often starts off with a graph showing rising temperatures as if this is the basis for our understanding and prediction.

But our expectations of future warming are not based on extrapolation of recent trends. Rather, we expect climate to be warmer in the future than in the past because we know that greenhouse gases absorb and then re-emit thermal radiation. As people around the world burn more and more fossil fuels, concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, so that solar energy accumulates under the extra absorbing gas. Scientists expect accumulating heat to cause warming temperatures because we know that when we add heat to things, they change their temperatures.

Earth%u2019s climate results from a balance of energy flows into the planet (from the Sun) and out of the planet (by thermal infrared radiation) back to space. If more energy flows in than flows out, the Earth warms up. If more flows out than flows in, it cools off. This %u201Ccause and effect%u201D framework is completely consistent with our everyday experience. ...

Read more ...
Quoting 846. Neapolitan:
The Great Lakes have some thick ice, that's for sure. Of course, it will melt--every speck of it--under summer's relentless heat and sun as it does every year. The question is this: will the Arctic ice melt before the GL ice?
Yeah,but have you ever gone swimming in lake Superior? In August,it might hit 54 degrees!
Quoting 849. overwash12:
Yeah,but have you ever gone swimming in lake Superior? In August,it might hit 54 degrees!


I grew up on the shore of Lake Michigan. I swam on both the Michigan and Illinois shores. It warms up pretty quickly.
Quoting 849. overwash12:
Yeah,but have you ever gone swimming in lake Superior? In August,it might hit 54 degrees!

I've swam (waded more like it) in the northshore Superior waters when it was in the mid 60s or so. Only gets there for a brief period in late August, especially right at the shore where it is shallow, after several sunny days with light winds.
Quoting 849. overwash12:
Yeah,but have you ever gone swimming in lake Superior? In August,it might hit 54 degrees!
And therefore .... what?
Quoting 852. FLwolverine:
And therefore .... what?


Don't you know? It's cold in Minnesota. Therefore it can't be cold anywhere. Are you as shocked as I am?

I know that even if the Arctic melts completely in the summers, it will probably be a while before it becomes a beach resort for February vacationers.
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost

"Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperature of about 5deg C within a few thousand years. [...]  Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate-ecosystem-soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost. [...] A mechanism linking Earth's orbital properties with release of soil carbon from permafrost provides a unifying model accounting for the salient features of the hyper thermals."

Some of the content of this Nature Letter may be found in this Skeptical Science document:

DeConto et al: Thawing permafrost drove the PETM extreme heat event 

"Sudden spikes in global temperatures that occurred 50-55 million years ago were caused by thawing of permafrost in Antarctica and northern high latitudes, according to recent research. The trigger for this sudden destabilization was a variation in orbital configurations that resulted in warmer polar summers. This model also provides an analogue for the releases of carbon from modern permafrost caused by current man-made global warming. Modern permafrost volumes are smaller than the estimates for those of 55 million years ago, but will nevertheless amplify the climatic effect of fossil fuel consumption and will provide continuing warming feedbacks for centuries after human emissions cease."

[Repeat: "after human emissions cease."]
The Mammoth Cometh was a very interesting read, though it mostly was about "de-extincting" the Passenger Pigeon.
This means that in the right configuration of continents and carbon stores, Earth was able to cough up a hairball like the PETM triggered by orbital forcing alone

And we're about to find out what happens when you push that system orders of magnitude faster. The geological record doesn't tell us that.

Quoting 855. Birthmark:


Things that make you say un-postable words. Their hypothesis seems plausible.

Quoting 858. no1der:
This means that in the right configuration of continents and carbon stores, Earth was able to cough up a hairball like the PETM triggered by orbital forcing alone

And we're about to find out what happens when you push that system orders of magnitude faster. The geological record doesn't tell us that.



It's only slightly terrifying. But I'm old enough that unless it happens very quickly...well, it probably doesn't apply to me.
Quoting 859. Birthmark:

It's only slightly terrifying. But I'm old enough that unless it happens very quickly...well, it probably doesn't apply to me.


Is 17 years of age "old enough"?

*Desperately wishes for a "yes".*
Quoting 860. Astrometeor:
Is 17 years of age "old enough"?

*Desperately wishes for a "yes".*
Sadly, I doubt it.
Quoting 857. Birthmark:
The Mammoth Cometh was a very interesting read, though it mostly was about "de-extincting" the Passenger Pigeon.
However, both projects are similar to individuals working hard to reduce their carbon footprint. De-extincting is only a feel-good set of projects that are interesting science, but do little to help the global extinction trend.

If a thousand species go extinct during the time it takes to resurrect one famous and beloved species - at a huge cost and effort - it doesn't change the downward trend.

De-extinction is an admirable goal, and certainly involves cutting-edge science, but it won't stop the mass extinction event that is now under way when one considers geological time frames and the current rate of the loss of species.
From Union of Concerned Scientist..
Tricks of the Trade

How companies anonymously influence climate policy through their business and trade associations


Excerpt:

Holding member companies accountable for the activities of their associations is not easy. As tax-exempt non-profit organizations, trade associations are not required to publicly list their membership or boards of directors—and member companies can take advantage of limited corporate-disclosure laws to engage in political activities through trade associations without much scrutiny from government, investors, or the public.
After spending a month in Fargo (I mean Wisconsin), my East Coast town felt downright warm.

Until today.

And I really felt like grousing about that, until I saw this.

Now all I need to do is find a big plastic ring. Because that really does look like fun.
867. yoboi
XL Dissent: 398 Youth Arrested at Anti-Keystone XL Pipeline Protest at White House

Published on March 3, 2014

http://www.democracynow.org - On Sunday, 398 opponents of the proposed Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline were arrested in front of the White House in what could be the largest youth sit-in on the environment in a generation. Students from more than 80 colleges rallied at Georgetown University and then marched to the White House, wearing mock "hazmat suits" and holding banners with slogans like "Keep your oil out of my soil" and "Even Voldemort Hates Tar Sands." President Obama is expected to issue a decision in the next few months on the pipeline, which would transport 830,000 barrels of crude every day from Alberta's oil sands to refineries on the U.S. gulf coast. We speak to American University student Deirdre Shelly about why she was arrested on Sunday and the growing student-led movement to convince universities, colleges and cities to divest from fossil fuel companies.

Quoting 867. yoboi:


Context is your friend. Link It's amazing what a better understanding of our warming world you will get if you look beyond WUWT and actually look to the science and see WHY the observations are what they are.

You are failing science class, Yoboi.
Quoting 817. yoboi:



I hope this time they pick up their litter instead of leaving it on the ground.....


Yeah. Like that's the problem! It is almost as if you would run 50 miles to point out that the garbage collector dropped a napkin on the ground! That is very disingenuous of you, Yoboi!
Quoting 870. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yeah. Like that's the problem! It is almost as if you would run 50 miles to point out that the garbage collector dropped a napkin on the ground! That is very disingenuous of you, Yoboi!
Yeah, he's just engaging in the typical, attention-starved, childish Whac-A-Mole denialism. You know:

"It's the sun!"

Whack!!!

"But Al Gore is rich!"

Whack!!!

"But Spencer says you're Nazis!!!"

Whack!!!

"But it was cold last night in Ypsilanti, Michigan!"

Whack!!!

"But the protestors left behind some garbage!!!"

Whack!!!

"But it's the..."

Whack!!! Whack!!! WHACK-WHACK-WHACK-WHACK-WHACK!!!

And just like the actual carnival game, it's only fun and fulfilling for a little while. Eventually it becomes tiresome beyond belief hitting the same exact plastic rodents popping up in the same exact manner from the same exact holes over and over and over again. It's no longer a challenge, then; it's just dumb, pointless tedium. And that's why I finally unplugged him.

I don't miss it. Not at all.

wam
Monsanto Linked to Deaths of Thousands of Farmers
Monday, March 3, 2014


Farmers in developing countries are dying in their thousands from a mysterious kidney disorder, which has been termed as "Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology" (CKDu).

The disease is running rife through farmers from the rice paddy regions of Sri Lanka, and in El Salavdor, it is the second leading cause of death among male adults, posing a greater risk to health there than diabetes, AIDS, and leukemia combined. A new study has now linked the unexplained deaths to the use of a herbicide patented by the giant biochemical company, Monsanto.

The CKDu originally manifested in Sri Lanka a couple of decades ago, and has spread rapidly throughout the country's farming communities where it now affects up to fifteen per cent of adults. Over the years, 400,000 people have been affected and 20,000 have died from the disease. The Sri Lankan Ministry of Health reported that the condition did not appear to follow risk factors normally associated with chronic kidney diseases, such as diabetes, hypertension or kidney inflammation.

The recent study, which was published in the Swiss-based International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, may now be able to explain how the CKDu develops: it has suggested that a widely used glyphosate-based herbicide can become a fatal brew once it is combined with the metals often contained in hard water or soil, and that the resulting toxic compounds can destroy kidney tissue.

Soil can contain metals such as arsenic and cadmium, and the metal content of hard water can be made up of many different elements, including calcium, magnesium, strontium, and iron. The study states that glyphosate, a molecule patented as a herbicide by Monsanto in the 1970s, can form “strong complexes with metal ions,” complexes that are capable of retaining nephrotoxic metals and delivering them to the kidney. Glyphosate is an toxic molecule in its own right, but is not harmful enough to cause the type of deleterious effect on kidney tissue observed in CKDu. Combined with other metal elements, however, it appears to become a deadly poison. The herbicide, known commercially as "Roundup," can be easily ingested via consumption of contaminated hard water, in food, or through the skin. The findings of the study, which was conducted by Channa Jayasumana (Rajarata University, Sri Lanka), Sarath Gunatilake (California State University, USA) and Priyantha Senanayake (Hela Suwaya Organization, Sri Lanka), indicated that up to 96 per cent of patients had consumed “hard or very hard water for at least five years, from wells that receive their supply from shallow regolith aquifers.”

"The phosphorous atom in the phosphonic group in the glyphosate/AMPA molecule can possibly be replaced by As (Arsenic)," an excerpt from the study explained. "Following dermal and respiratory absorption of glyphosate, it can form complexes with nephrotoxic metals and As derived from rice, vegetables and tobacco within the circulation."

Glyphosate-metal complexes (GMCs) are not evacuated via normal liver’s detoxification process, and the researchers believe that the toxic complexes may accumulate in the body over a long period of time, so that it could take many years before signs of the CKDu are observed in affected individuals. This hypothesis is based on the fact that agrochemicals have been used in the affected areas since the 1970s, but the CKDu did not begin to afflict the population until the 1990s.

The spread of the disease is thought to be due to the fact that glyphosate is easily ingested through a variety of different means, and also because, once it has reacted to form hard complexes, its half-life can increase from 47 days up to 22 years. This means that it can potentially accumulate in increasingly large amounts, multiplying the risk of exposure, a fact of even greater concern when one considers that it is used in copious quantities throughout countries like Sri Lanka.

The researchers noted that Roundup is used alongside triple-super-phosphate (TSP) fertilizer which contains arsenic and heavy metals.

"...Within a couple of weeks after the spraying of glyphosate farmers apply triple phosphate (TSP) to the paddy fields," said the authors. "Recent findings have shown that the TSP available in Sri Lanka is contaminated with significant amounts of Cd (Cadmium), Cr (Cromium), Ni (Nickel) and Pb (lead). Furthermore, it was also found that TSP used in Sri Lanka is a very rich source of arsenic."

According to the study, even the World Health Organisation had associated the CKDu with arsenic, cadmium and pesticide contamination, along with hard water consumption. It also proposed that other outbreaks of kidney disorders in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Andra Pradesh in India, could also be attributed to the use of Roundup.

A series of articles published in the journal Science last year claimed that developing countries need stronger pesticide regulation, and an international body to carry out regular pesticide safety assessments. The special report suggested that new technologies must be developed in order to make pesticides safer, ultimately producing crops that will not require pesticides at all.

Jeffery Dangl, a biology professor at the University of North Carolina, United States, and his colleagues, revealed advances in the understanding of plant immune systems and DNA sequencing that have allowed the production of crops that are less susceptible to pests and disease.

"We lose 20 to 30 per cent of our global food supply to pests and pathogens every year," Dangl told SciDev.Net. "If you reduce plant diseases and recover that, you could feed 20 to 30 per cent more calories to people."

The research could potentially have the greatest impact in developing countries, where currently there is poor regulation of pesticide use.

"One often sees farmers throwing chemicals on their plants, using their hands, and without proper clothing, and they often use fungicides and pesticides that are no longer allowed in the developed world," explained Dangl. "There's poor regulation and poor administration of the regulation."

Reducing contamination of the environment and food by pesticides would seem to be a very positive step forward in farming, though engineering such pesticide-resistant crops would surely require some genetic modification to achieve that result. This fact that could prove to be an emotive issue for those opposed to GM foods, an issue that has provoked strong reactions over the past few decades.

Quoting 867. yoboi:


yoboi, do you think there's only one hemisphere?


and for perspective





net = -0.391
Tim Cook to Climate Change Deniers: Get Out of Apple Stock
Mashable, March 1, 2014
Apple CEO Tim Cook has not been known for taking a strong stand on, well, just about anything. Caution has been the watchword of Cook's three-year tenure at the top of the world's wealthiest technology company. So far his legacy is largely comprised of incremental improvements in established products, tweaks to the supply chain, and more corporate transparency.
But Cook does care about the environment — and that became very clear on Friday, when the CEO had a terse exchange with an anti-environmental lobbying group. ...
Quoting 854. no1der:
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost

"Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperature of about 5deg C within a few thousand years. [...]  Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate-ecosystem-soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost. [...] A mechanism linking Earth's orbital properties with release of soil carbon from permafrost provides a unifying model accounting for the salient features of the hyper thermals."

Some of the content of this Nature Letter may be found in this Skeptical Science document:

DeConto et al: Thawing permafrost drove the PETM extreme heat event 

"Sudden spikes in global temperatures that occurred 50-55 million years ago were caused by thawing of permafrost in Antarctica and northern high latitudes, according to recent research. The trigger for this sudden destabilization was a variation in orbital configurations that resulted in warmer polar summers. This model also provides an analogue for the releases of carbon from modern permafrost caused by current man-made global warming. Modern permafrost volumes are smaller than the estimates for those of 55 million years ago, but will nevertheless amplify the climatic effect of fossil fuel consumption and will provide continuing warming feedbacks for centuries after human emissions cease."

[Repeat: "after human emissions cease."]


I always wondered what people meant by "bridge fuel", or "bridge technology" when they referred to fracing. Now I get it. It is a bridge to this:

The "New Scientist" article:
"Fred Pearce, The New Scientist
IF YOU thought shale gas was a nightmare, you ain't seen nothing yet. A subterranean world of previously ignored reserves is about to be opened up. These are the vast coal deposits that have proved unreachable by conventional mining, along with gas deposits around them. To the horror of anyone concerned about climate change, modern miners want to set fire to these deep coal seams and capture the gases this creates for industry and power generation. Some say this will provide energy security for generations to come. Others warn that it is a whole new way to fry the planet.

A primitive version of the technology behind this Dantean inferno of underground coal gasification (UCG) has already been running for 50 years in the former Soviet republic of Uzbekistan. Some 300 metres beneath the plains east of Tashkent, Stalin's engineers and their successors have been burning a seam of brown coal that can't be mined conventionally. There are two well heads on the surface: one pumps air down to fan the flames while the other retrieves a million cubic metres of combustion gases a day. Scrubbed of coal dust, cooled and compressed on site, the gases are then sent down a pipeline that snakes across the countryside to a sprawling power station on the outskirts of the industrial town of Angren, where they are burned to generate electricity.

A deadbeat town in a forgotten rust-belt backwater of the former Soviet Union is an unlikely test bed for a cutting-edge technology. But if it can be scaled up successfully, the Australian engineers who bought the operation seven years ago think it could transform the world's energy markets, open up trillions of tonnes of unmineable coal and provide a new carbon-based energy source that could last a thousand years.

With trials of UCG under way globally from China to Queensland, and South Africa to Canada, the stakes are high. Not least for the atmosphere. Without a way to capture all the carbon and store it out of harm's way, it could raise the world's temperature by 10 degrees or more. Is this burning desire for fossil fuel pushing us towards disaster?...
(13 February 2014)

Yup. Easy-peezy we can keep the economy growing well into the next century! Hurray! Think the above is overblown?

The Chinese are installing "clean coal" technology.

Makes me want to head right down to WalMart and do my patriotic buying to keep the economy growing.
I don't know if this has been posted previously. It's a very good read.

Drought and Global Climate Change: An Analysis of Statements by Roger Pielke Jr
Quoting 876. Birthmark:
I don't know if this has been posted previously. It's a very good read.

Drought and Global Climate Change: An Analysis of Statements by Roger Pielke Jr


Anyone who doubts that AGW will result in more droughts (and floods) is a few sandwiches short of a picnic. It's a logical certainty, irrespective of what any analysis of current trends shows.
So the mild winter at least is good for something ... Imagine storages were very low - sure political voice from Europe would be much more timid right now ;-)

Ukraine crisis: Europe's stored gas high as prices soar
BBC, 3 March 2014 Last updated at 14:40 GMT
Gas and oil prices have risen amid fears the Ukraine crisis could have a damaging effect on one of Europe's main energy supply routes.
But analysts say high European gas stocks will limit the turbulence.
Gas futures climbed by up to 10% in early trading, while the benchmark price for oil rose by more than 2%.
Traders are worried about the stability of supplies from Russia, which provides a quarter of Europe's natural gas, half of it through Ukraine.
However, a relatively mild winter has reduced demand for heating fuel, with storage levels at the main gas hubs about 20% greater than last year.
In Germany, Europe's biggest gas consumer and Russia's largest customer, stocks are at more than 60% of capacity, capable of satisfying 60 days of demand.

Russian reliance?
Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, but the continent has been weaning itself off dependence on its neighbour for the last decade.
It now imports less than 30% of its natural gas from Russia, compared with 45% in 2003, according to European Union statistics.
Europe is also less reliant on the Ukraine link, with improved gas infrastructure now meaning supplies could go via alternative routes in the event of disruption. ...

Whole article see link above.

Gazprom says Europe to depend more on Russian gas in years to come
Reuters, by Dmitry Zhdannikov, LONDON, March 3 Mon Mar 3, 2014 10:28am EST

----------------------


Source: This Is The Gas Pipeline Map That Shows Why The Crisis In Ukraine Affects All Of Europe
Michael Kelley Tomorrow at 2:10 AM
Quoting 866. Physicistretired:
After spending a month in Fargo (I mean Wisconsin), my East Coast town felt downright warm.

Until today.

And I really felt like grousing about that, until I saw this.

Now all I need to do is find a big plastic ring. Because that really does look like fun.
Ah, but you need to be able to fly back up to the top!
Quoting 876. Birthmark:
I don't know if this has been posted previously. It's a very good read.

Drought and Global Climate Change: An Analysis of Statements by Roger Pielke Jr
Climate Progress is on it.
All theories are wrong, a precious few are useful. How we define useful--in Science--is in a theory's ability to predict future events.

This is what separates science from every other art.

What is disturbing is science is looking more and more like religious zealotry.

The author states:
"My climate-change course does not rely on equations, but I contend that it’s solidly anchored in science-based reasoning."

I have several folks that he may want to look up--Copernicus, Galileo, DE Broglie, Einstein...

Not one of their theories was accepted by those who were using solidly anchored science until future events were predicted based on their ideas.

Over the last 15 years the models based on AGW have failed to predict future events.

This is truly part of science. Except, since the model is wrong and useless... why are politicians pushing everyone to act?

Is this really wise? To engage the body politic to make massive economic changes when the models are not predictive and we don't really know why?

I noticed that not one of the "scientific questions" actually questioned the model--just the data or how the data was collected.

Where were the questions regarding the actual model's factors: What sensitivity is associated with man-made factors which are not falling into predicted levels? What sensitivity is associated with natural factors etc...

The ony one that came close was the one about sun spots.

This is precopernican--i.e. not to question the theory but the data surrounding because the theory cannot be questioned.

What I find offensive--and it is offensive--is that you claim politics is the fundamental concern of skeptics.

it would not be if the adherents were not pushing political solutions for a useless set of models.

I'm not a politician, but I am skeptical of any theory where the proof is: "my white lab coat posse agrees with me." followed up by "you are a [explicative inserted here] if you don't agree with me and my posse."

You can have 100 out of 100 people in the body politic agree with your theory but if nature does not agree with you (as is clearly the case in the last 15 years...) and you stubbornly adhere to the body politic... and push politcal solutions you are not practicing science.
Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
Over the last 15 years the models based on AGW have failed to predict future events.


That is, in fact, wrong.



Of course, surface air temperature is just one measure of AGW. Sea level rise has proceeded near the top of the model projections. Arctic sea ice has crashed faster than almost all model projections.

The rest of your post appears to be largely a product of imagination and beliefs.

You might also want to ponder this.
Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
All theories are wrong, a precious few are useful. How we define useful--in Science--is in a theory's ability to predict future events.

This is what separates science from every other art.

What is disturbing is science is looking more and more like religious zealotry.

The author states:
"My climate-change course does not rely on equations, but I contend that it’s solidly anchored in science-based reasoning."

I have several folks that he may want to look up--Copernicus, Galileo, DE Broglie, Einstein...

Not one of their theories was accepted by those who were using solidly anchored science until future events were predicted based on their ideas.

Over the last 15 years the models based on AGW have failed to predict future events.

This is truly part of science. Except, since the model is wrong and useless... why are politicians pushing everyone to act?

Is this really wise? To engage the body politic to make massive economic changes when the models are not predictive and we don't really know why?

I noticed that not one of the "scientific questions" actually questioned the model--just the data or how the data was collected.

Where were the questions regarding the actual model's factors: What sensitivity is associated with man-made factors which are not falling into predicted levels? What sensitivity is associated with natural factors etc...

The ony one that came close was the one about sun spots.

This is precopernican--i.e. not to question the theory but the data surrounding because the theory cannot be questioned.

What I find offensive--and it is offensive--is that you claim politics is the fundamental concern of skeptics.

it would not be if the adherents were not pushing political solutions for a useless set of models.

I'm not a politician, but I am skeptical of any theory where the proof is: "my white lab coat posse agrees with me." followed up by "you are a [explicative inserted here] if you don't agree with me and my posse."

You can have 100 out of 100 people in the body politic agree with your theory but if nature does not agree with you (as is clearly the case in the last 15 years...) and you stubbornly adhere to the body politic... and push politcal solutions you are not practicing science.
No. Just, no.

Your lengthy first comment reads like--I mean, exactly like--something from Joanne Nova's website: all muted and not-so-muted insults, anti-science nonsense, debunked blather, ideological-based silliness, and plain old denial.

Sigh...

Most of us here treat curious and polite, if misguided, newcomers with politeness of our own. But you've waded in here, accused the blog's author--and most climate scientists--of "religious zealotry"; you've attempted to perpetuate the lie that the planet hasn't warmed for "15 years"; you've attempted to perpetuate the Soon-ian nonsense about "sun spots" being the only valid factor in global temperature swings; you've downplayed the overwhelming scientific consensus behind climate change theory; you've stated that evil climate scientists are out to take away all your money. And then you've closed by claiming offense at those who consider you and others of your ilk politically-based.

Indeed.

Just a suggestion: I believe you'll quickly discover that such talk will likely have a difficult time finding purchase here. Oh, you'll doubtless find a few fellow traveler willing to latch onto your every syllable. But I think you'll find those to be the exception...
884. yoboi
Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
All theories are wrong, a precious few are useful. How we define useful--in Science--is in a theory's ability to predict future events.

This is what separates science from every other art.

What is disturbing is science is looking more and more like religious zealotry.

The author states:
"My climate-change course does not rely on equations, but I contend that it’s solidly anchored in science-based reasoning."

I have several folks that he may want to look up--Copernicus, Galileo, DE Broglie, Einstein...

Not one of their theories was accepted by those who were using solidly anchored science until future events were predicted based on their ideas.

Over the last 15 years the models based on AGW have failed to predict future events.

This is truly part of science. Except, since the model is wrong and useless... why are politicians pushing everyone to act?

Is this really wise? To engage the body politic to make massive economic changes when the models are not predictive and we don't really know why?

I noticed that not one of the "scientific questions" actually questioned the model--just the data or how the data was collected.

Where were the questions regarding the actual model's factors: What sensitivity is associated with man-made factors which are not falling into predicted levels? What sensitivity is associated with natural factors etc...

The ony one that came close was the one about sun spots.

This is precopernican--i.e. not to question the theory but the data surrounding because the theory cannot be questioned.

What I find offensive--and it is offensive--is that you claim politics is the fundamental concern of skeptics.

it would not be if the adherents were not pushing political solutions for a useless set of models.

I'm not a politician, but I am skeptical of any theory where the proof is: "my white lab coat posse agrees with me." followed up by "you are a [explicative inserted here] if you don't agree with me and my posse."

You can have 100 out of 100 people in the body politic agree with your theory but if nature does not agree with you (as is clearly the case in the last 15 years...) and you stubbornly adhere to the body politic... and push politcal solutions you are not practicing science.




This is the best post I have seen here in a very long time......I hope that you will continue to post......
O this should be rich.

Quoting 884. yoboi:




This is the best post I have seen here in a very long time......I hope that you will continue to post......

Well, of course you like it! It contains baseless assertions, statements of feelings, very little reality, and not a drop of science. LOL
Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
Baseless first post at WU - straight from the Heartland Institute School of Climate Denial Blog Activism Course
Wow - what a gish-gallop of AGW/CC denialism for a newbie's first comment. You not only have no credibility, but you destroyed your chances of ever gaining credibility here where science is the bottom line.

I like how you started by trashing Dr. Rood with a non-sequitur. Dr. Rood is quite capable of doing the math, but that does not mean that he cannot teach a class on basic climate science and AGW/CC problem solving to students with little math background.

I find it sadly amusing that you cannot differentiate between introductory lower division climate science courses and the scientists who do climate science research.

And you came here not as a skeptic or one who is interested in discussing science, but rather as a classic internet blog & forum troll.

891. yoboi
Quoting 892. no1der:


Wow that turf is outta this world man! They outta call it ASTROTURF or something :D
RickyRood has created a new entry.
Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
All theories are wrong, a precious few are useful. How we define useful--in Science--is in a theory's ability to predict future events.


Greetings, Shawn!

Slow day on Spencer's blog? Or did you just think you'd dip your toes in the waters of an actual science blog to see if that stuff flies?

Allow me to fill in just one of the (many) gaps in your understanding of the 'art' of science.

All existing theories are useful, because they all have predictive capabilities. After all, that's the primary (and most important) requirement of a Scientific Theory (the absolute pinnacle of scientific understanding).

It must have predictive capabilities, and those predictions must be testable/falsifiable.

If it can't do that, then - by definition - it isn't a Theory. Period. You've learned something today.

Now, as a scientific 'religious zealot', I give you your penance for writing such complete drivel here:
Go home. Say three Hail Marys, three Our Fathers, and then flog yourself with the nearest copy of Halliday and Resnick.

Or just try actually reading it.

Quoting 881. QuiqsOtic:
This is what separates science from every other art.


The 'art' of science. Thanks for the chuckle.