Sat 012112

By: OrangeRoses , 2:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2012

You are here because you followed a link from my OrangeRoses Weather Blog. This older blog entry will be a container for local forecast discussions, which are only temporary.

POSTED 8:30 AM 3/6/2012

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
313 am CST Tuesday Mar 6 2012

heavy rain event shaping up across a good portion of our region
by the end of the work week and possibly continuing into the

For the short term portion of the forecast...we will have to
contend with strong southerly winds and the need for a lake Wind
Advisory across all but our extreme eastern zones today. Strong
high pressure across the southeast Continental U.S. And Lee side cyclogenesis in the
foothills of The Rockies will result in a very strong pressure
gradient across the Southern Plains today. With sufficient mixing...
could easily see sustained winds near 20 miles per hour with gusts in excess
of 35 miles per hour across our western zones this afternoon. Cirrus will
overspread the region today with low level moisture quickly
returning to the region overnight tonight.

Watervapor imagery showing our big weather maker just now coming
onshore the Pacific northwest this morning. This vigorous upper
level trough will dive into The Four Corners region of the country
during the day Wednesday and become cutoff from its parent
longwave trough which will bypass the low Wednesday night. For days
now...there has been strong disagreement between the medium range
forecasts concerning the evolution and progression of this cutoff low
and its effect on our portion of the region. One thing the
solutions have in common is an axis of heavy rain setting up
across the region late in the day Thursday through Thursday night.
For this reason...have increased probability of precipitation slightly for Thursday with
categorical probability of precipitation warranted Thursday night across our entire
region. Have also added the mention of locally heavy rain to our
gridded package Thursday night. Severe weather likelihood less
certain at this time as a cold front will be moving into our region
from the northwest during the day Thursday into Thursday night.
If sufficient instability is in place ahead of this feature...then
severe storms are certainly possible. Storm Prediction Center has included a day three
slight risk which is mostly just west of our region but this could
easily be further east to encompass more of our region dependent
on just how unstable our region can become on Thursday. For
now...will focus more on the heavy rain mention late Thursday
through Thursday night as strong divergence will exist with a
split upper jet structure across our region Thursday night to go
along with the surface boundary. Could see two to four inches of rain
across the northwest two thirds of our region beginning Thursday
through early Friday if the European model (ecmwf) solution pans out with slightly
lesser amounts per the GFS.

The GFS remains the outlier with its quick ejection of the cutoff
low into the plains Friday into the weekend. Following HPC/NCEP
lead which suggests a quick bias to the GFS and a slower bias to
the Canadian...this forecast will follow closely the operational
European model (ecmwf)/UKMET which paints much higher probability of precipitation across our region
Friday and into the weekend. Having said that...we are still
several days away from the weekend portion of the forecast and
strong uncertainty still exists with the eventual ejection of this
southwest Continental U.S. System. Have increased probability of precipitation to likely for Friday
and high end chance for the weekend with the understanding that
these rain chances could go up considerably if the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET
solutions pan out. The European model (ecmwf) wants to push the initial front
through our region Friday into Friday night...stalling the front
across our southern zones with strong overrunning setting up north
and west of the front, the front then returns north of the region
during the day Saturday into Saturday night as another strong
piece of energy rotates out of the southwest Continental U.S.. the front then
pushes east of our region during the day Sunday with the rain
tapering off west to east Sunday night. Worst case scenario would
be 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher totals across the
northwest half of our region for the entire event...Thursday
through Sunday.

This forecast will continue to be modified as the event nears
but for now...will highlight this heavy rain potential in our
morning severe weather potential statement and graphics for our web Page.

Thanks for the coordination this morning forward...hgx. Prelims to


POSTED 5:23 PM 2/11/2012

Winter Storm Watch Statement 4:25 PM CST on February 11, 2012

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday night through
Monday morning.

* Event... a wintry mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow will
begin to spread northeast across extreme northeast
Texas... southeast Oklahoma... and portions of southwest Arkansas
late Sunday night... ahead of an upper level disturbance that
will approach the region from the west. Ice accumulations near
one quarter of an inch will be possible... especially across
southeast Oklahoma and the northern sections of southwest
Arkansas. Snow accumulations of one half to one inch will be
possible as well across northern McCurtain County Oklahoma and
portions of southwest Arkansas... mainly north of a Broken Bow
Oklahoma... to dequeen and Nashville Arkansas line.

* Timing... accumulating freezing rain... sleet... and snow will fall
after midnight Sunday night through much of Monday morning
before surface temperatures rise above freezing around midday Monday.

* Impact... potentially significant ice accumulations could occur
on elevated objects such as bridges and overpasses... trees and
power lines. This could result in dangerous travel conditions... and
could lead to power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

POSTED 4:55 PM 2/10/2012

Special Weather Statement 3:28 PM CST February 10, 2012

Possible winter weather to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma... southwest Arkansas and extreme northeast Texas from Sunday night into Monday...

Light rain and drizzle moved through the region on Friday. In its wake
will be much colder air for the weekend as Arctic high pressure
moves into central portions of the country. Cold and dry
conditions will be found area wide on Saturday and Sunday... with
lows in the teens and 20s and highs only in the 40s.

During the overnight hours on Sunday... a low pressure system will
be approaching from The Four Corners region of the country. Well
in advance of this system will be a broad area of
precipitation... stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Great
Lakes region.

At this time it appears that enough cold air will be present for a
mixture of wintry precipitation across portions of southeast
... southwest Arkansas and extreme northeast Texas. Snow
and sleet will be common along a line from Broken Bow Oklahoma to
dequeen to Prescott Arkansas. Freezing rain and sleet are possible
from Clarksville to Mount Pleasant Texas eastward to Magnolia

Light precipitation will begin very early Monday morning... with
heavier precipitation beginning around 6 am. Below freezing
temperatures will be common across the area Monday
morning... which may allow for light ice accumulations and greater
impacts on roadways. Precipitation will likely transition to rain
during the day as temperatures climb above freezing.

There is still some uncertainty with this storm system at this time.
Additional forecasts will help fine tune the details... especially
with regards to possible accumulations and exact precipitation

POSTED 4:18 AM 2/10/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
404 AM CST Friday Feb 10 2012

The area radar imagery looks real wet this rain looks
to be covering the arklatex. However...much of this activity is
only producing light amounts with only trace amounts to a few
hundredths of an inch recorded since midnight.

Satellite imagery continues to show Pacific moisture transgressing
across the area...ahead of a upper level trough moving through the
plains. The models progressively increase moisture across the area
today ahead of this trough...thus rainfall is almost certain today
with probability of precipitation being near 100 percent. However...with the lack of lift
due to the surface frontal boundary lagging somewhat behind the
precipitation...quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be rather light. HPC has 24 quantitative precipitation forecast values
generally less than a tenth of an inch for the area...but we may
see some isolated amounts up to a quarter inch.

Drying will take place rather quickly after frontal passage this
afternoon/evening...with a 1040 ridge building across the area
tonight. Cold air advection will be in place the next couple of northerly winds usher much cooler air in and the ridge
settles across the deep south.

The extended package remains consistent this the
upper low currently south of Baja California finally moves east this weekend.
The low will weaken as it crosses Mexico and send a trash of
short waves ahead of the deep trough moving through The Rockies
Sunday night/Monday. Rain chances remain decent Monday as moisture
return is expected ahead of this activity.

POSTED 5:08 PM 2/9/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
357 PM CST Thursday Feb 9 2012

Pacific moisture feed aloft continues to increase across S Texas/S la
this afternoon...ahead of a closed low that has been sinking S
over southern Baja California...and also ahead of a well defined shortwave noted
on the water vapor loop diving SW into eastern nm/far West Texas. This
shortwave is expected to amplify later tonight across western OK/Texas
and tap into some of this Pacific moisture...with areas of rain
developing across much of Texas this evening/overnight. The low level
return flow is not particularly strong ahead of this
shortwave...with much of the Gulf of mx maintaining a nerly surface
flow in wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion. Thus...the very
dry air mass in place will have to gradually moisten from the top
down from west to east tonight...before these areas of rain overspread the
region late. The short term forecasts remain consistent with earlier
runs on coverage/potential for measureable rainfall prior to 12z
Friday...thus have raised probability of precipitation to categorical late tonight for East
Texas...tapering probability of precipitation to chance across the eastern sections of north central la.
Can/T rule out very isolated thunderstorms and rain ahead of the parent shortwave
Friday...but am expecting this precipitation to diminish from west to
east by afternoon...with most locals receiving a quarter to a half
inch of rain.

The short term forecasts are also quick to dry slot this system from
the west-northwest Friday afternoon...with the last of the rain exiting
north central la by 00z Saturday. Surface pressure rises in wake of this
system will allow a cold front to enter southeast OK/East Texas by midmorning
Friday...quickly exiting the region Friday evening. Arctic air
will be waiting on its wings as a 1040+ mb Arctic ridge begins to
build S across the Southern Plains from eastern NE/KS. Temperatures should fall to
near/below freezing generally north of I-20 by Saturday morning...with
temperatures struggling to warm during the day as strong cold advection
persists across much of the deep south. In fact...afternoon temperatures
will be hard pressed to near/break 50 this weekend north of
I-20...even as most of the Post-frontal clouds clear. Some middle
level moisture still residing in the northwest flow Saturday night will
ultimately determine exactly how cold we will get...with a
prolonged freeze certainly possible over much of the area given
the light winds/very dry air mass expected to be in place as the
Arctic high pressure ridge centers itself over the middle/lower MS

Low level return flow will commence Sunday night as SW flow aloft
is a series of embedded shortwaves traverses
the Southern Plains/lower MS valley. Forecast soundings across southeast
OK/adjacent SW Arkansas Sunday evening indicate a potential for a brief
period of ice the column saturates from the top down and
evaporatively cools under strong warm advection. But once the
column completely saturates...any precipitation should be all
liquid for our thus no problems are expected as surface
temperatures remain above freezing during the event. Convection should be
numerous Monday areawide ahead of the primary shortwave that will
dive southeast through the Southern Plains Monday afternoon/evening. But
widespread 1+ inch quantitative precipitation forecast/S appear likely at this time before ending Monday

The upper flow will remain progressive through the remainder of
the extended with additional shortwave energy to affect the region
during the middle/late week timeframe. Will continue with chance
probability of precipitation...and did cut back temperatures a tad from the previous
forecast...but nothing to the extent to the mexmos given the
significant flip flop from earlier runs.

POSTED 9:26 AM 2/8/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
405 am CST Wednesday Feb 8 2012

fast moving weather systems with mostly normal to below normal
tempearatures can be expected through the next seven days. In the
short term...high pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft
will bring cool and dry weather to the four state region for the
next 36 to 48 hour period. After that...upper flow becomes
southwest as a cutoff low over Baja California begins to phase with a trough
moving into the Central Plains...bringing a return of moisture to
the region. Most of the moisture will be middle and upper level
induced... so rainfall amounts should remain on the light
side...mainly Friday and Friday night. The significant change from
this system will be brought into play Arctic air is
pulled south from Canada. Fortunately for this area...the coldest
air will remain north of the County Warning Area...but at least one
night...Saturday night...sub freezing temperatures can be expected
area wide. Sunday should be a cold day but dry. Then by Sunday
night...another trough digs south into the southern
rockies...bringing the next chance of rain to the region.
Temperatures Sunday night could pose a problem during onset of
precipitation. If clouds precede the trough Sunday
afternoon...which is expected...readings should hold above
freezing. If skies remain clear with the low dewpoints from the
Arctic air mass in place...a period of freezing rain cannot be ruled
out. Will have to wait closer to weekend to see how this comes
together. Monday looks wet and cold...but rainfall amounts should
remain on the light side again due to lack of of strong return
flow from the Gulf. As this system exits east Monday night...GFS
has a stronger and deeper low is digging into the southern
rockies...bringing another chance of rain Monday...and possibly
some strong convection as southerly low level flow returns. The
return of Gulf flow into the region would also bring a significant
warm up. Ecm is somewhat slower with this system...holding off
until midweek. Will go with the GFS for now...just keeping the
numbers down a bit.


The Wind Advisory I issued yesterday afternoon was inaccurate. Average wind was 17 mph from Noon to 5 and avg. gusts were 23 mph. By 6 PM winds were almost gone. A wind advisory is 30 - 39 mph or gusts 45 -47.

Today will be cool, with a high of 49°, and that means only 12 degrees to go before nightfall cools it down to 38. A little breezy but not nearly like yesterday. Sun is shining now and the clouds are moving somewhere else.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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The sixth angel poured out her bowl on the great river Euphrates and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the Kings and Queens from the East

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