Mon 011512

By: OrangeRoses , 12:03 AM GMT on January 16, 2012

Princess Glaciera has left again...

When you least expect I shall return

Monday Jan. 16, 2012
The Overnight Low 62° came just after midnight and then slowly warmed to 66 at 10:35 AM. There is a Wind Advisory today with gust speeds getting stronger, from 17 mph at 7 AM to 23 mph at 10:30 AM. It's Cloudy Overcast with a 30% chance of rain or thunderstorms until 9 PM. Any rain will come from:

• a trough west of Texas
• a cold front northwest at the Oklahoma border with Kansas
• its associated Low Pressure in eastern Kansas

that will maybe maybe rain, remember 30% chance means — over many years of data collection and analysis by the NWS— weather conditions similar to what we have now in the past produced rain 30% of the time, or 3 times out of 10 , but this is not odds of rain occurring. It sounds like doubletalk but it is more a climatological percentage.

Follow the Front c2012011615.gif

Latest National Surface Analysis Δ t=3 hr

If you opened the Follow the Front link you will see:
The dashed brown line west of TX is the trough, or elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure.
Cold front is the blue triangles at our northern border.
A Red L over eastern Kansas all cluttered and hard to see, which is a Low Pressure System center.

What I haven't mentioned is the streaming warm moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, at ever-increasing speeds with the steady 15 mph winds and 20+ mph gusts, that will collide with the cooler air descending upon us as that cold front. But remember, there is only a 30% chance of rain, according to the NWS,

and this means in the past when weather conditions were similar to ours right now it rained three times out of a total sample of ten times logged or 30 times in 100 records, all similar to our weather now. So, there is a 70% chance it will not rain, using the non probabilistic NWS doubletalk!

Now that you understand a little bit more about fronts and troughs and low pressure areas, if you click the Latest National Surface Analysis link above you won't see the same map as Follow the Front. The NWS updates this map every 3 hours and posts them 90 minutes later, so the symbols and numbers change. [ Right now that trough mentioned above disappeared and the Cold Front Changed into  red semicircles and blue triangles— a Stationary Front(which makes sense because the earlier cold  front stayed on the Kansas-Oklahoma border). Also, the red L moved east out of Kansas. ]

6:44PM Monday

At the time, approx. 3 hours ago, the paragraph above in brackets [.. ] was a correct observation of the Latest National Surface Analysis map (see lime green link), but now there is a new update with a few changes that may affect our weather locally here in SE Oklahoma Mesonet Land.

• the stationary front on the KS-OK border has changed back into a cold front and moved slightly south
• the trough that was, and then was hiding returned over the TX panhandle
• 25 - 40 degree temperature differences in central Kansas and Nebraska compared to central Oklahoma,

moving south behind the front, which means a clash between the moist air boundary here meeting the cold front boundary and next the much colder air, that should increase the probability of rain. But this is nowhere in the NWS Forecast for the next few days.
At least this is posted here so the seldom few who read this blog can check and verify or discredit. 8:25 PM 1/16/2012

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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The sixth angel poured out her bowl on the great river Euphrates and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the Kings and Queens from the East

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