hoTTies Я US

Sat 012812

By: OrangeRoses, 5:25 AM GMT on January 29, 2012

So nice with my Sisters
The Angels of Avalon breathed lιfe into the sad world
Ι return again for a short while...may the chιll remind you... again
Be careful, what may happen
Have one ιota of respect for thιs...all around

I shall go now. Pay Attention!

48° Now at 11:25 AM Sunday with clear skies and very light winds coming from the South. The winds earlier, from 9 AM yesterday to 9 AM today, were from the North-to-NorthEast for at least 24 hours. This is significant as it explains the very rapid warmup that began at 8 o'clock— the overnight low being 26° — and continues. No windchill factor at all since Sunset last night.

At the airport, just north of the mesonet site, the temp was 52° at 11:35 AM with winds below 5 mph.

Monday Jan. 30, 2012

The avg. windchill was below freezing from 4-8 AM; temps remained above 32° as well but flirted just a tenth of a degree above at 7 AM. It will be warming up days and nights for a few days. The Wednesday High may be 70°... it is not prophesied.

National Weather Service Shreveport
819 PM CST Tuesday Jan 31 2012

areas of rain showers and embedded thunder continues to build NE across
north central la this evening...along an 850mb Theta-E axis that
continues to propagate just ahead of a middle level shortwave
traversing east through the region. In its wake...the sky is
beginning to clear from the west...along a dry slot which the short
term models spread east-northeast into SW Arkansas/NE Texas/northwest la. This has allowed
patchy dense fog to develop across deep East Texas and northwest la...over areas
that have received rainfall this evening.

Have increased probability of precipitation to high chance/likely for the remainder of
the evening for much of north central la...tapering probability of precipitation back to low
chance as the rain showers should pull most east of the region after 06z with
the departure of the middle level shortwave. Did also remove probability of precipitation
for the remainder of the night for much of NE Texas/extreme SW
Arkansas...where the dry slotting will persist. However...low stratus
should develop/spread north across these areas later tonight. Did not
make many changes to the forecast min the 01-02z temperatures
should not fall much more overnight...especially once the low
stratus redevelops.

A weak cold front noted across NE and central OK into northwest Texas this
evening will only make very slow progress southeast overnight...before
stalling Wednesday morning. Can/T rule out isolated -shra
developing along/just ahead of the front over southeast OK...but the best
forcing along this boundary will wait until late morning/midday
ahead of another shortwave over southern nm...that will quickly
translate east across OK/Arkansas Wednesday. The extent of any severe
convection Wednesday will be dependent of the degree of forcing
and low level instability...although there is agreement in the
short term forecasts that steep lapse rates and adequate deep layer
shear may allow for a few isolated severe hailers from the I-30
corridor of NE Texas north into southeast OK/SW Arkansas.

_________________________________________________ ______________

• • • 12:06 PM CST on Wednesday February 1, 2012
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in extreme southeast Oklahoma...North East Texas...and South West Arkansas. Movement is to the North East at about 25 mph. Rainfall amounts will be light as mid day approaches...but could be moderate in stronger storms. te-vis

No showers, no storms here, but, apparently, it may have rained 10 miles north of here according to the radar at 1:30 PM, 3 hours ago, that included a hailstorm with 1.5 inch hail. At that time the wind suddenly changed from SW to NW. Now it is back to East. Ι would have heard any thunder. The quiet, totally overcast sky gradually cleared this afternoon until we had sunny skies again around 3 PM. The temperature rose 5 degrees in six hours to 67° by 3 PM.

Princess Glaciera

Updated: 10:46 PM GMT on February 01, 2012


Tue 012412

By: OrangeRoses, 2:51 PM GMT on January 24, 2012

Temp reached 32° at 4:40 and 5:20 AM. As the winds picked up to 5 mph from the East at 5:50 AM the
Windchill Factor was 28°, again meaning how cool it feels on your skin( face, hands, etc...) when there is wind. By 8 AM WindChill reached 32° to then continue above freezing as it is now 34° with the measured temp of 38° at 8:15 AM.

So, Glaciera did not return from being with her sisters for such a brief subfreeze. She t o t a l l y understands the "complex and w e t" area forecast discussion by the National Weather Service Shreveport, LA at 450 AM CST today on Tuesday Jan 24 2012.

• Link to complex and wet forecast here on until the next update.

Nowcast at 6:02 PM CST on January 24, 2012
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across portions of extreme southeast Oklahoma...East Texas...north Louisiana...and south Arkansas. Movement is to the north near 40 mph. Periods of brief heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning may be possible in stronger storms.

•Interactive Link Shreveport Radar with updates at 6 min intervals & shows the storms(if any) moving north over us.

Wednesday Jan. 25, 2012 930 AM

A little later today for this update. 2.3 inches of rain here, locally, fell from 7 PM last night until just now. Also this AM, distant thunderstorms with 2 or 3 flashes of lightning. What kept my attention was this:
8:06 AM CST Flood Warning for the Glover River at Glover Oklahoma. From this afternoon to Thursday evening or until the warning is cancelled.

I began doing research, again, on this 32 mile long stream in McCurtain County, 11 miles NorthWest of the Airport. It joins the Little River(South) and then meanders South East until one mile North of Idabel it goes East, not far from where I hide out near Shults, and then crosses the state line into Arkansas. This is the impact locally- a flooding river spilling over its banks, perhaps. Last summer I featured the Glover for its low water levels. Ironic, isn't it? Anyway, the water level is expected to rise 8 feet before nightfall, as seen on the USGS graph below.

You will see the exact flood area on the map links, indicated by the NWS "at 19.0 feet minor to moderate flooding will take place on the Glover River West of Glover Oklahoma and especially at its confluence with the Little River west of Golden Oklahoma".

See map Sorry, the map would not embed in this blog

Final Entry tonight at 8PM a light drizzle outside, nothing on the radar and may not add much to the rainfall total of ~3 inches in the past 26 hours.

Shreveport NWS 414 am local time Jan 26 2012
• water vapor loop reveals the central Texas closed low beginning to shift east this morning
areas along the Red River of extreme NE Texas/southeast OK/SW Arkansas should see the better chances for
measureable rainfall closer to the 850mb low as it lifts NE.

Low-cloud cloudy all morning, seemed like fog, temp went up 1° in 7 hours, so tell me where that closed low is. Eastern U.S. Water Vapor Image

Updated: 5:30 PM GMT on January 26, 2012


Sun 012212

By: OrangeRoses, 5:25 PM GMT on January 22, 2012

3:57 AM CST January 22, 2012
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a Lake Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning until 6 PM this evening.
* Event... strong southwest winds near 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

A high wind advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 mph or greater are expected to occur for at least 1 hour. This advisory can also be issued if winds of 46 mph or greater are expected for any length of time.

The severe overlay on Local Radar from WU shows a dark turquoise color for the High Wind Advisory label. Wind advisories are "site specific" according to the NOAA glossary for the NWS. Evidently, 20 mph sustained winds and 35 mph gusts qualify for the High Wind package as well even though the Shreveport gusts listed in the Event above are not sustained, nor are 20mph winds a qualifier. There is a widespread advisory as you see, with all the dark turquoise counties on the the map below.

I am trying to understand if my incorrect issuance of a High Wind Advisory Jan 20th was wrong now!

There has been widespread fog locally since 3 AM. You can see the foggy locations here marked with the pink = (equals signs).

Please note: the preceding link that illustrates the

pink equals signs
was issued at 10:15 AM today.

The wind is just starting to shift direction, mostly from the East for the past 10 hours, to SouthEast. This should accelerate the warmup, the high winds, and the rain potential.
"After 22/21 UTC [3-4pm] showers and isolated thunderstorms will bring flight hazards across southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas." —from the 515 am CST NWS Discussion in the Aviation Section..
٭Just in: at 2:35 PM still the same day, 26.5 mph SW sustained winds and 39.1 mph gusts. Source: WU - Idabel Airport History

Mesonet recorded two 40 mph gusts about the same time.

The wind advisory ended at 6 PM but the winds don't care. At 8:30 PM winds began to increase once again to nearly high winds watch status. West winds of 25 mph sustained and 34 mph gusts can be seen on the Mesonet graph below.

Updated: 4:35 AM GMT on January 23, 2012


Sat 012112

By: OrangeRoses, 2:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2012

You are here because you followed a link from my OrangeRoses Weather Blog. This older blog entry will be a container for local forecast discussions, which are only temporary.

POSTED 8:30 AM 3/6/2012

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
313 am CST Tuesday Mar 6 2012

heavy rain event shaping up across a good portion of our region
by the end of the work week and possibly continuing into the

For the short term portion of the forecast...we will have to
contend with strong southerly winds and the need for a lake Wind
Advisory across all but our extreme eastern zones today. Strong
high pressure across the southeast Continental U.S. And Lee side cyclogenesis in the
foothills of The Rockies will result in a very strong pressure
gradient across the Southern Plains today. With sufficient mixing...
could easily see sustained winds near 20 miles per hour with gusts in excess
of 35 miles per hour across our western zones this afternoon. Cirrus will
overspread the region today with low level moisture quickly
returning to the region overnight tonight.

Watervapor imagery showing our big weather maker just now coming
onshore the Pacific northwest this morning. This vigorous upper
level trough will dive into The Four Corners region of the country
during the day Wednesday and become cutoff from its parent
longwave trough which will bypass the low Wednesday night. For days
now...there has been strong disagreement between the medium range
forecasts concerning the evolution and progression of this cutoff low
and its effect on our portion of the region. One thing the
solutions have in common is an axis of heavy rain setting up
across the region late in the day Thursday through Thursday night.
For this reason...have increased probability of precipitation slightly for Thursday with
categorical probability of precipitation warranted Thursday night across our entire
region. Have also added the mention of locally heavy rain to our
gridded package Thursday night. Severe weather likelihood less
certain at this time as a cold front will be moving into our region
from the northwest during the day Thursday into Thursday night.
If sufficient instability is in place ahead of this feature...then
severe storms are certainly possible. Storm Prediction Center has included a day three
slight risk which is mostly just west of our region but this could
easily be further east to encompass more of our region dependent
on just how unstable our region can become on Thursday. For
now...will focus more on the heavy rain mention late Thursday
through Thursday night as strong divergence will exist with a
split upper jet structure across our region Thursday night to go
along with the surface boundary. Could see two to four inches of rain
across the northwest two thirds of our region beginning Thursday
through early Friday if the European model (ecmwf) solution pans out with slightly
lesser amounts per the GFS.

The GFS remains the outlier with its quick ejection of the cutoff
low into the plains Friday into the weekend. Following HPC/NCEP
lead which suggests a quick bias to the GFS and a slower bias to
the Canadian...this forecast will follow closely the operational
European model (ecmwf)/UKMET which paints much higher probability of precipitation across our region
Friday and into the weekend. Having said that...we are still
several days away from the weekend portion of the forecast and
strong uncertainty still exists with the eventual ejection of this
southwest Continental U.S. System. Have increased probability of precipitation to likely for Friday
and high end chance for the weekend with the understanding that
these rain chances could go up considerably if the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET
solutions pan out. The European model (ecmwf) wants to push the initial front
through our region Friday into Friday night...stalling the front
across our southern zones with strong overrunning setting up north
and west of the front, the front then returns north of the region
during the day Saturday into Saturday night as another strong
piece of energy rotates out of the southwest Continental U.S.. the front then
pushes east of our region during the day Sunday with the rain
tapering off west to east Sunday night. Worst case scenario would
be 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher totals across the
northwest half of our region for the entire event...Thursday
through Sunday.

This forecast will continue to be modified as the event nears
but for now...will highlight this heavy rain potential in our
morning severe weather potential statement and graphics for our web Page.

Thanks for the coordination this morning forward...hgx. Prelims to


POSTED 5:23 PM 2/11/2012

Winter Storm Watch Statement 4:25 PM CST on February 11, 2012

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday night through
Monday morning.

* Event... a wintry mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow will
begin to spread northeast across extreme northeast
Texas... southeast Oklahoma... and portions of southwest Arkansas
late Sunday night... ahead of an upper level disturbance that
will approach the region from the west. Ice accumulations near
one quarter of an inch will be possible... especially across
southeast Oklahoma and the northern sections of southwest
Arkansas. Snow accumulations of one half to one inch will be
possible as well across northern McCurtain County Oklahoma and
portions of southwest Arkansas... mainly north of a Broken Bow
Oklahoma... to dequeen and Nashville Arkansas line.

* Timing... accumulating freezing rain... sleet... and snow will fall
after midnight Sunday night through much of Monday morning
before surface temperatures rise above freezing around midday Monday.

* Impact... potentially significant ice accumulations could occur
on elevated objects such as bridges and overpasses... trees and
power lines. This could result in dangerous travel conditions... and
could lead to power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

POSTED 4:55 PM 2/10/2012

Special Weather Statement 3:28 PM CST February 10, 2012

Possible winter weather to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma... southwest Arkansas and extreme northeast Texas from Sunday night into Monday...

Light rain and drizzle moved through the region on Friday. In its wake
will be much colder air for the weekend as Arctic high pressure
moves into central portions of the country. Cold and dry
conditions will be found area wide on Saturday and Sunday... with
lows in the teens and 20s and highs only in the 40s.

During the overnight hours on Sunday... a low pressure system will
be approaching from The Four Corners region of the country. Well
in advance of this system will be a broad area of
precipitation... stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Great
Lakes region.

At this time it appears that enough cold air will be present for a
mixture of wintry precipitation across portions of southeast
... southwest Arkansas and extreme northeast Texas. Snow
and sleet will be common along a line from Broken Bow Oklahoma to
dequeen to Prescott Arkansas. Freezing rain and sleet are possible
from Clarksville to Mount Pleasant Texas eastward to Magnolia

Light precipitation will begin very early Monday morning... with
heavier precipitation beginning around 6 am. Below freezing
temperatures will be common across the area Monday
morning... which may allow for light ice accumulations and greater
impacts on roadways. Precipitation will likely transition to rain
during the day as temperatures climb above freezing.

There is still some uncertainty with this storm system at this time.
Additional forecasts will help fine tune the details... especially
with regards to possible accumulations and exact precipitation

POSTED 4:18 AM 2/10/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
404 AM CST Friday Feb 10 2012

The area radar imagery looks real wet this rain looks
to be covering the arklatex. However...much of this activity is
only producing light amounts with only trace amounts to a few
hundredths of an inch recorded since midnight.

Satellite imagery continues to show Pacific moisture transgressing
across the area...ahead of a upper level trough moving through the
plains. The models progressively increase moisture across the area
today ahead of this trough...thus rainfall is almost certain today
with probability of precipitation being near 100 percent. However...with the lack of lift
due to the surface frontal boundary lagging somewhat behind the
precipitation...quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will be rather light. HPC has 24 quantitative precipitation forecast values
generally less than a tenth of an inch for the area...but we may
see some isolated amounts up to a quarter inch.

Drying will take place rather quickly after frontal passage this
afternoon/evening...with a 1040 ridge building across the area
tonight. Cold air advection will be in place the next couple of northerly winds usher much cooler air in and the ridge
settles across the deep south.

The extended package remains consistent this the
upper low currently south of Baja California finally moves east this weekend.
The low will weaken as it crosses Mexico and send a trash of
short waves ahead of the deep trough moving through The Rockies
Sunday night/Monday. Rain chances remain decent Monday as moisture
return is expected ahead of this activity.

POSTED 5:08 PM 2/9/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
357 PM CST Thursday Feb 9 2012

Pacific moisture feed aloft continues to increase across S Texas/S la
this afternoon...ahead of a closed low that has been sinking S
over southern Baja California...and also ahead of a well defined shortwave noted
on the water vapor loop diving SW into eastern nm/far West Texas. This
shortwave is expected to amplify later tonight across western OK/Texas
and tap into some of this Pacific moisture...with areas of rain
developing across much of Texas this evening/overnight. The low level
return flow is not particularly strong ahead of this
shortwave...with much of the Gulf of mx maintaining a nerly surface
flow in wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion. Thus...the very
dry air mass in place will have to gradually moisten from the top
down from west to east tonight...before these areas of rain overspread the
region late. The short term forecasts remain consistent with earlier
runs on coverage/potential for measureable rainfall prior to 12z
Friday...thus have raised probability of precipitation to categorical late tonight for East
Texas...tapering probability of precipitation to chance across the eastern sections of north central la.
Can/T rule out very isolated thunderstorms and rain ahead of the parent shortwave
Friday...but am expecting this precipitation to diminish from west to
east by afternoon...with most locals receiving a quarter to a half
inch of rain.

The short term forecasts are also quick to dry slot this system from
the west-northwest Friday afternoon...with the last of the rain exiting
north central la by 00z Saturday. Surface pressure rises in wake of this
system will allow a cold front to enter southeast OK/East Texas by midmorning
Friday...quickly exiting the region Friday evening. Arctic air
will be waiting on its wings as a 1040+ mb Arctic ridge begins to
build S across the Southern Plains from eastern NE/KS. Temperatures should fall to
near/below freezing generally north of I-20 by Saturday morning...with
temperatures struggling to warm during the day as strong cold advection
persists across much of the deep south. In fact...afternoon temperatures
will be hard pressed to near/break 50 this weekend north of
I-20...even as most of the Post-frontal clouds clear. Some middle
level moisture still residing in the northwest flow Saturday night will
ultimately determine exactly how cold we will get...with a
prolonged freeze certainly possible over much of the area given
the light winds/very dry air mass expected to be in place as the
Arctic high pressure ridge centers itself over the middle/lower MS

Low level return flow will commence Sunday night as SW flow aloft
is a series of embedded shortwaves traverses
the Southern Plains/lower MS valley. Forecast soundings across southeast
OK/adjacent SW Arkansas Sunday evening indicate a potential for a brief
period of ice the column saturates from the top down and
evaporatively cools under strong warm advection. But once the
column completely saturates...any precipitation should be all
liquid for our thus no problems are expected as surface
temperatures remain above freezing during the event. Convection should be
numerous Monday areawide ahead of the primary shortwave that will
dive southeast through the Southern Plains Monday afternoon/evening. But
widespread 1+ inch quantitative precipitation forecast/S appear likely at this time before ending Monday

The upper flow will remain progressive through the remainder of
the extended with additional shortwave energy to affect the region
during the middle/late week timeframe. Will continue with chance
probability of precipitation...and did cut back temperatures a tad from the previous
forecast...but nothing to the extent to the mexmos given the
significant flip flop from earlier runs.

POSTED 9:26 AM 2/8/2012

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
405 am CST Wednesday Feb 8 2012

fast moving weather systems with mostly normal to below normal
tempearatures can be expected through the next seven days. In the
short term...high pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft
will bring cool and dry weather to the four state region for the
next 36 to 48 hour period. After that...upper flow becomes
southwest as a cutoff low over Baja California begins to phase with a trough
moving into the Central Plains...bringing a return of moisture to
the region. Most of the moisture will be middle and upper level
induced... so rainfall amounts should remain on the light
side...mainly Friday and Friday night. The significant change from
this system will be brought into play Arctic air is
pulled south from Canada. Fortunately for this area...the coldest
air will remain north of the County Warning Area...but at least one
night...Saturday night...sub freezing temperatures can be expected
area wide. Sunday should be a cold day but dry. Then by Sunday
night...another trough digs south into the southern
rockies...bringing the next chance of rain to the region.
Temperatures Sunday night could pose a problem during onset of
precipitation. If clouds precede the trough Sunday
afternoon...which is expected...readings should hold above
freezing. If skies remain clear with the low dewpoints from the
Arctic air mass in place...a period of freezing rain cannot be ruled
out. Will have to wait closer to weekend to see how this comes
together. Monday looks wet and cold...but rainfall amounts should
remain on the light side again due to lack of of strong return
flow from the Gulf. As this system exits east Monday night...GFS
has a stronger and deeper low is digging into the southern
rockies...bringing another chance of rain Monday...and possibly
some strong convection as southerly low level flow returns. The
return of Gulf flow into the region would also bring a significant
warm up. Ecm is somewhat slower with this system...holding off
until midweek. Will go with the GFS for now...just keeping the
numbers down a bit.


The Wind Advisory I issued yesterday afternoon was inaccurate. Average wind was 17 mph from Noon to 5 and avg. gusts were 23 mph. By 6 PM winds were almost gone. A wind advisory is 30 - 39 mph or gusts 45 -47.

Today will be cool, with a high of 49°, and that means only 12 degrees to go before nightfall cools it down to 38. A little breezy but not nearly like yesterday. Sun is shining now and the clouds are moving somewhere else.

Updated: 2:33 PM GMT on March 06, 2012


Tue 011712

By: OrangeRoses, 4:57 AM GMT on January 18, 2012

Wednesday Morning Update Jan. 18, 2012

Overnight Low at 6:50 AM 23° WindChill 18° with a SouthEast wind speed of 3 mph.

At 1 PM temperatures are in the the lower 40's and the relative humidity is also in the lower 40's percentiles in a wide area of Oklahoma, the eastern half of Texas, western Kansas and thinner area in western Lousiana. The air that moved south a few nights ago was much colder but was very dry, being associated with a High Pressure area. Apparently, the very humid air mass in place over all the areas included in OK, TX, and LA above dried out, like an icey dryer. So, it didn't rain. One curious anomaly did happen in Ringold, OK, about 30 miles NW of here. A sudden rainless thunderstorm with a very high wind gust knocked a tree down. That's it. No rain was reported.

Thursday Morning Update Jan. 19, 2012

Overnight at 11 PM & 12:10 AM the Lowest Temperature was 31° and WindChill was 27°, for the same times, with an Eastern wind speed of 4 to 6 mph. Interestingly, the temp rose above freezing after the low point but the WindChill factor remained 29° on average for the remainder of the Eve with average winds doubling to 8 mph.

Today's Forecast is Sunny, with a high about 60°
Tonight may be Partly cloudy, with a low perhaps of 41°

And any of you readers know what this means — Who leaves with the warming.

Friday Morning Update Jan. 20, 2012

Quite a surprise to see the dense fog all around. The local airport lists cloud height 100 feet. The satellite shows no cloud cover in a 50 mile radius around this area, and the Shreveport NWS finally issued a "patchy fog" short term forecast at 7:55 AM, 90 minutes after it issued a dense fog advisory at 6:25 AM. The change of wind direction from the East to Southeast should signal the warmup expected to begin mid morning that will evaporate the low lying clouds, known as fog, and give us the 70° High Temp for the day. But, another fog is expected later this evening.

Here's another local weather very brief Current Weather Conditions link from NWS Telecommunications Operations Center

At 11:19 AM today 1/20/12 the Shreveport NWS blundered again. This time a short weather discussion was issued: a Lake Wind Advisory for "north Louisiana and East Texas" because "surface winds are expected to be out of the south at 15 to 20...or 15 to 25 miles per hour...through most of the afternoon."

But the staff hasn't checked our small part of their forecast world since 11:20 AM. We have had steady winds of 18 -21 mph since 11:35 AM and gusts 22 - 26 mpg! hah! should be mph. Source: K4O4 Idabel Airport Another blunder from Shreveport was in not raising the temperature forecast here. It is already 73° and still rising — 4° higher than the 5 AM discussion guessed it would be here (69).

I am issuing a Wind Advisory in effect from 11:30 AM until 5 PM today January 20, 2012, with winds 15 to 21 mph and gusts 22 -30 mph.

∞ I return once more in Sorrow ∞
∞ for you never believe, never learn ∞
∞ another chance for you again ∞

∞ I depart to be with my sisters, the angels of avalon ∞

Updated: 7:28 PM GMT on January 20, 2012


Mon 011512

By: OrangeRoses, 12:03 AM GMT on January 16, 2012

Princess Glaciera has left again...

When you least expect I shall return

Monday Jan. 16, 2012
The Overnight Low 62° came just after midnight and then slowly warmed to 66 at 10:35 AM. There is a Wind Advisory today with gust speeds getting stronger, from 17 mph at 7 AM to 23 mph at 10:30 AM. It's Cloudy Overcast with a 30% chance of rain or thunderstorms until 9 PM. Any rain will come from:

• a trough west of Texas
• a cold front northwest at the Oklahoma border with Kansas
• its associated Low Pressure in eastern Kansas

that will maybe maybe rain, remember 30% chance means — over many years of data collection and analysis by the NWS— weather conditions similar to what we have now in the past produced rain 30% of the time, or 3 times out of 10 , but this is not odds of rain occurring. It sounds like doubletalk but it is more a climatological percentage.

Follow the Front c2012011615.gif

Latest National Surface Analysis Δ t=3 hr

If you opened the Follow the Front link you will see:
The dashed brown line west of TX is the trough, or elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure.
Cold front is the blue triangles at our northern border.
A Red L over eastern Kansas all cluttered and hard to see, which is a Low Pressure System center.

What I haven't mentioned is the streaming warm moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, at ever-increasing speeds with the steady 15 mph winds and 20+ mph gusts, that will collide with the cooler air descending upon us as that cold front. But remember, there is only a 30% chance of rain, according to the NWS,

and this means in the past when weather conditions were similar to ours right now it rained three times out of a total sample of ten times logged or 30 times in 100 records, all similar to our weather now. So, there is a 70% chance it will not rain, using the non probabilistic NWS doubletalk!

Now that you understand a little bit more about fronts and troughs and low pressure areas, if you click the Latest National Surface Analysis link above you won't see the same map as Follow the Front. The NWS updates this map every 3 hours and posts them 90 minutes later, so the symbols and numbers change. [ Right now that trough mentioned above disappeared and the Cold Front Changed into  red semicircles and blue triangles— a Stationary Front(which makes sense because the earlier cold  front stayed on the Kansas-Oklahoma border). Also, the red L moved east out of Kansas. ]

6:44PM Monday

At the time, approx. 3 hours ago, the paragraph above in brackets [.. ] was a correct observation of the Latest National Surface Analysis map (see lime green link), but now there is a new update with a few changes that may affect our weather locally here in SE Oklahoma Mesonet Land.

• the stationary front on the KS-OK border has changed back into a cold front and moved slightly south
• the trough that was, and then was hiding returned over the TX panhandle
• 25 - 40 degree temperature differences in central Kansas and Nebraska compared to central Oklahoma,

moving south behind the front, which means a clash between the moist air boundary here meeting the cold front boundary and next the much colder air, that should increase the probability of rain. But this is nowhere in the NWS Forecast for the next few days.
At least this is posted here so the seldom few who read this blog can check and verify or discredit. 8:25 PM 1/16/2012

Updated: 4:23 AM GMT on January 17, 2012


Th 011212

By: OrangeRoses, 1:39 PM GMT on January 12, 2012

7 AM Thur. Jan 12 windchill 19 temp 29 wind NW 15 mph gust 20 mph

• Overnight the temp factor reached the freezing point at 1 AM
• the lagging temperature dropped to 32 at 4 AM.
• Peak 35 mph gusts many times

With average gusts 26 mph and steady winds of 17 mph it feels much colder.

8:18 PM
The windchill remained below 29° all day. Now the temperature is below freezing.

Overnight Forecast
Most likely, just before 7:25 AM sunrise, will be a Low Temp of 18° with a 5 mph wind that "feels like" 11° and is called windchill- the chill of the wind on your skin, hopefully you're wearing gloves, hat, heavy coat, thermal-lined or wool leggings, warm socks & no high heels. Remember, a higher wind and/or lower temp, lower windchill.

Friday Morning
The low temp I suggested in the overnight forecast above was 6° too low. In fact the lowpoint windchill of 18° and the low temp of 24° happened at 1 AM. Then both began to warm slightly until now - 7:40 AM. Source:

Here is one possible reason - a NWS Observation:

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
349 am CST Friday Jan 13 2012

cirrus shield has begun to thicken this morning atop the Arctic air mass in place...ahead of the next progressive shortwave noted on the water vapor loop diving southeast across the plains and into the Texas/OK panhandles. While the cirrus should delay a progressive warmup this morning across the region...a gradual warming trend should commence by the cirrus begins to thin when the trough axis begins to move into the region.

My Comments: Radiational cooling is greater when there is less cloud cover. Most likely the cirrus cloud shield, although high thin paintstrokes, clumped together, insulating the lower atmosphere and, hence, the ground below. Less wind and less cooling accounted for the 6 degree difference mentioned above.

Saturday Morning Jan 14
The temperature dipped to freezing (32° F) at 8:50 PM last night, went up and down slightly 1 degree for about an hour, and then stayed below freezing until 8:50 AM this morning.
This chill factor of 12 hours represents the longest timespan this year of 2012. So it should have cooled the ground enough to cause surface frost but underneath the chill data for 4 inch depth bare soil temp was 37° at 10 AM. Source: Δt=15 min
In shady areas just 2 hours ago I spotted white frost outside my cold window.
[Once again the McCurtain County airport datafeed stopped this time at 5:55 AM, and remains frozen at 11:15]

∞ You learned and forgot ∞ Now I return with the winds howling low ∞
∞ respect for the earth & sky ∞
∞ One more night for you to wonder why I am here ∞

Artwork by Josephine Wall

Updated: 5:32 PM GMT on January 14, 2012


Wed 011112

By: OrangeRoses, 2:38 PM GMT on January 11, 2012

A minor correction from yesterday's rain total- 0.94 inches.

Today we had a Dense Fog Advisory. I did not see any fog at all earlier, so anyway... the mid morning burnoff predicted happened earlier. A welcome sunny day with clear skies, soft winds, and temperatures climbing 22 degrees from 39° now. I think it might warm more to 65.

Just out »»Wed. Jan 11 Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 4 PM CST Thursday

•northwest winds are expected to follow a cold front which will move into southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas late this evening. The strong wind will continue through most of the day Thursday.

••strong northwest wind with sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph are expected

∞ Princess Glaciera may return with subfreezing windchills overnight ∞

Updated: 1:19 AM GMT on January 12, 2012


Mon 010912

By: OrangeRoses, 1:02 AM GMT on January 10, 2012

Monday Evening Wrap 6:45 PM

It rained 0.82 inches from 3 AM - 7:45 AM, ending with a sudden 19 mph wind gust. The entire NWS Shreveport Office forecasting area was under a Flash Flood Watch. Despite the absence of rain here after 7:45 AM, the FlashFlood Watch was finally canceled at 4 PM - 8 hours later.

I read the 352 PM NWS Discussion's mention of more rain for tomorrow and it seemed like a strange set of Upper Level open and closed Lows and Surface Fronts merging with a northeast movement to our area and then dry slotting ending Flash Flood Warnings for areas south and west of here that did get the forecasted rain-- 4-7 inches. (If the NWS Discussion Page link above has been updated, click one of the numbers 2,3,4 that are on top of the allcaps current NWS Discussion.)

Finally, thunderstorms are predicted by WU BestForecast tonight and Tuesday daytime, with maybe an inch of rain in the next 24 hours.

Just Past Tuesday Noon: Precip. 0.92 inches fell from 4 - 11:30 AM
with increasingly louder thunder;
storm currently on lunch break. jpg

January 10, 2012 Nowcast as of 11:31 am CST
Numerous showers over far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas along and north of a line from Idabel Magnolia Arkansas...will continue to move north and northwest at 30 mph...and decrease in coverage

NWS Shreveport Discussion 515 am CST
The rain and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move with the surface low and frontal boundaries as they lift off to the northeast crossing the Mississippi River by late this afternoon and into the overnight hours...

And so... we shall see if this happens.

»16:45 CST
Finally!! Now the rain is gone, totals the same as above, it's still very cloudy and overnight lows will 9° lower.

Updated: 10:50 PM GMT on January 10, 2012


Tue 010312

By: OrangeRoses, 2:03 PM GMT on January 03, 2012

Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 7:15 AM: Temp 26.6 °F Windchill 18.2 °F East 8.1 mph

The Overnight low was 2 degrees cooler from 2:30 - 5:30 AM Data Source: McCurtain County Airport

The Idabel Personal Weather Station KD5ABR
has a broken wind device, or something stopping it from a display of wind speed and gust. It was working yesterday afternoon on Monday but around sunset it suddenly has no reading for the wind and continued all night.

2 PM Update
Right after I posted the problem with KD5ABR above, it began to slowly start working. Now it appears back online, doin' just fine.
Also, my local site for data has just begun to display at 1:30 PM. Mesonet records wind gusts and steady winds. The speed is higher than KD5ABR during the same time periods, most likely because Mesonet is 7 miles SW of the personal weather station that has some wind sheltering from a residental neighborhood and trees, whereas the former is out in open land with little barriers. I wonder if either of the local weather data suppliers ever read this blog.

Wed. Jan. 4, 2012 Update

Morning temperature fell at or below freezing at 3:15 AM and remained so as of this posting at 7:51 AM.
The Windchill was at or below freezing all night— from 11:30 PM Jan. 3 until now also. The low point W.C. of 24° came at 5:15 AM with a corresponding T. of 30° and wind speed/direction 6 mph Northeast. There is no rapid warmup from the cool sunshine this morning so far.

Thur. Jan 5, 2012 Update

7:35 AM Overnight Low 26° Windchill 22° Wind West 4 mph Source: Mesonet

24 hours ago yesterday, only five minutes later, than now, the temperature graph slope shows increasing temp and windchill. However, today the graph slope is decreasing for these two values.

Highs forecast today to be 64° by both the NWS and WU Best Forecast. Friday's High of 70° (WU) & 66°(NWS) predicted.
Tonight (Thursday) the Low 36° and 41° ( NWS & WU).

Thursday 8:10 AM Temp 29° ∞ Same time Today Jan.6, 2012 39° with "Scattered Clouds 1300 ft, Mostly Cloudy 3200 ft, Mostly Cloudy 3900 ft" ∞ The 7:31 AM GOES 13 Satellite showed low clouds over the Red River in SE OK ∞ Today's Highs predicted to be, depending on who you believe, 72° (WU Best Forecast) or 67° NWS ∞ With the 10 degree warmer temps, yet with Easterly light winds, it should be closer to the higher one
∞ My guess will be 70°( don't worry, I won't change this temperature) >

The high temp was 68° at 2:55 PM. It was overcast from 10 to 1 during the peak heating time with a southerly wind.

Patchy Fog Forecasted on Saturday Morning

8:35 AM It is Saturday Morning and no fog at all. Scattered Clouds at 2200 ft and 100% Humidity.

NWS Hazardous Weather report at 6:39 AM reads:


∞ Messages from Princess Glaciera ∞

And so I return once again to watch
I am pleased to see you chill
You have learned. I will go.

But I will return...

Updated: 2:49 PM GMT on January 07, 2012


Sun 010112

By: OrangeRoses, 3:58 PM GMT on January 01, 2012

Happy New Year!

The seldom few who read this blog may understand the limited local weather data sources available in SE Oklahoma.

Other than the Weather Underground Personal Weather Stations in this area (that differ slightly in temperatures and rainfall amounts for the same time periods) and the McCurtain County Airport (which still displays the incorrect time for each feed into the online weather sites, with frequent lapses for hours at a time) there are no official data sources, other than semi official

Mesonet has been offline for the past 48 hours and who knows when the instrumentation in the country pasture  will be fixed, by probably, an OSU college student on Christmas break?

The nearest "official" National Weather Service station is out-of-state 50 miles to the Northeast in DeQueen, Arkansas and has no rain gauge. It also has much different weather, severe, that makes it also an unreliable data source for my area.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
327 am CST Sat Dec 31 2011

Cold Arctic airmass will build over much of the central Continental U.S. For the beginning of next week. Coldest air should remain north of the area...but overnight lows are expected to fall well below freezing Sunday and Monday nights. May see some of the coldest temperatures yet this winter in some locations Monday night and into early Tuesday morning.

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
500 am CST sun Jan 1 2012

Cold air will also produce freezing or near freezing tempeeratures overnight tonight ..and for the next couple of
nights for much of the area. Temperatures will moderate as high pressure associated with the middle week system shifts east. Daytime highs will return into the sixties and to near 70.

And so, with the temperatures dropping below freezing, as shown above, Princess Glaciera may return again for a few days.

Monday Morning Update January 2, 2012

At 5:55 AM temperature 35.6 °F windchill 28.0 °F wind NNW 10.4 mph
8:00 AM temp the same windchill 27.1 °F wind NNW 12.7 mph (source: McCurtain Cty. Airport)

Comparing other working mesonet stations for minimum temps show below freezing values west of here at Madill and Burneyville. SE Oklahoma has no working mesonet station to check against the airport, as stated above.

So, the Princess did not appear.

5:05 AM NWS Discussion: Overnight tonite some locations across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas could see readings near 20 degrees or even slightly lower.

Updated: 12:46 AM GMT on January 03, 2012


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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The sixth angel poured out her bowl on the great river Euphrates and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the Kings and Queens from the East

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Elevation: 489 ft
Temperature: 55.4 °F
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Humidity: 55%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 12:44 PM CST on February 26, 2017

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